How the Twins Could Pull Off a Blockbuster Trade For Miami Starter Jesús Luzardo

[tony&rodney]

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Luzardo is lefthanded, throws 96 MPH, and is 1 year removed from a 4 WAR season. One 4 WAR season got Jordan Montgomery 2 years $47M. Lucas Giolito parlayed an absolutely awful walk season into a 2 year $37M contract from the Red Sox. Market value for starting pitching is crazy.

.... except he has not performed because he was injured. 2023 was a good year for Luzardo and he still has some helium. What did the Cubs find?

I was thinking you might know someone or have seen the players discussed (particularly Keaschall) play quite a bit last season. When I saw Luzardo last season (on several occasions) and Keaschall (quite a bit), I saw an injured guy slinging it. Keaschall looked like someone a team needs.

Now the reports currently are that Luzardo is fully healed and progressing through a normal healthy offseason. This is great news for him and the upside is there. My deal for him would just not include Keaschall. No way.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You may want to tell Fangraphs that he's a top 60 prospect because they don't rate him in their top 100.

Jorge Polanco last season cost $12M in salary and returned 4 players including top 150 prospect Gonzalez. Castro is coming off a much more impressive season than Polanco and costs half as much. If other teams aren't valuing 2025 Castro higher than 2024 Polanco then the Twins should be negotiating a contract extension with Castro because he is very undervalued. It is rare that you can get an All-Star infielder for just $6M. The only free agent infielders I would rather have than Castro are Bregman and Gleyber Torres. Willi Castro is a lot better than you are giving him credit for.

"Keaschall, who will be an offseason Top 100 prospect if he can solidify his defense in center field."

Sounds like his injury/surgery is what kept him off the updated top-100 on Fangraphs and we should probably keep an eye on what the preseason 2025 top-100 looks like at Fangraphs. He's already on the MLB top-100. I think you're underselling Keaschall pretty significantly.

[Ryan_K]

Royce and comp a pick for Luzardo, both have injury concerns. or add Nardi and Nick Fortes (def first catcher) and Marlins take on Vasquez.

 

I'd do this as Marlins fan. Old number 3s are getting 22mm a year, Luzardo is undervalued by MLB trade values

[MGX]

Hard pass on this - the last thing we need is another pitcher who can't stay healthy.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Sold

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"Keaschall, who will be an offseason Top 100 prospect if he can solidify his defense in center field."

The defense is the big question mark for Keaschall. He's not a SS but could be anywhere in the OF or the right side of the infield. Is he a good fielder or is he bouncing around because they can't find a spot where he's good like Austin Martin? Is he all bat like Luis Arraez?

[sweetmusicviola16]

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

.... except he has not performed because he was injured. 2023 was a good year for Luzardo and he still has some helium. What did the Cubs find?

I was thinking you might know someone or have seen the players discussed (particularly Keaschall) play quite a bit last season. When I saw Luzardo last season (on several occasions) and Keaschall (quite a bit), I saw an injured guy slinging it. Keaschall looked like someone a team needs.

Now the reports currently are that Luzardo is fully healed and progressing through a normal healthy offseason. This is great news for him and the upside is there. My deal for him would just not include Keaschall. No way.

I like Luzardo, I mean who doesn't like his talent. But I'm not trading Keashell for Luzardo at this point. 

[DocBauer]

I see 3 major issues here:

1] As previously noted, Luzardo has ONE successful season in his career so far. Are the Twins really going to bet he's 100% now and ready to roll? Call me "concerned" if not doubtful.

2]Losing Castro in this scenario, or any, depletes the INF and robs us of a "starting" 10th man who's ability to cover 2B/SS/3B is even more important than his ability in the OF.

3]Keaschall is the likely replacement for Castro in 2026 if he's gone. Not at SS more than likely, and while he may be questionable at 3B as well, he's a possible OF/2B/1B option with a skill set that might make him thr Twins primary leadoff hitter for several seasons. We're talking a big double-wammy of lost bat and positional flexibility/depth.

Also, in regard to Nardi, he's got some solid numbers and reportedly pretty good stuff. But he's also got a career OPS of .822 against RH batters, even worse at .849 in 2024. That makes him more of a LOOGY and that doesn't interest me.

I MIGHT be talked in to this deal if the Twins could keep Castro, and replace Keaschall for Kael Culpepper. 

Also, with Vazquez gone, who's the 2nd catcher? What $ is left to sign whoever is left on the market? Or do we trade even more prospects for a young catcher. Suddenly we're down Castro, and Keaschall, no #2 catcher, and we're probably trading away another 2 or 3 prospects for said young catcher and we're minus the comp pick for the 2025 draft to help re-stock? 

And this is predicated on Luzardo actually being 100% healthy and back to his 2023 level of success, the only real quality season of his career?

I say a pretty big NO.

[cmoss84]

10 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

A while back I mentioned going after Jesus AND Alcantara (because why not...it's the Marlins).

Sandy's salary is $17 the next 2 years with a 3rd year club option. Here's what I offered...not sure if it is enough:

Festa, Zebby, Raya, Miranda, G-Gon, and Julien. If we needed to add Keuschall to the mix, I'd still do it. 

I think I just broke the record for negative responses! Nice!

Serious question though...people don't want 2 #2s? Don't like these SPs? Don't think it's enough bait to catch 2 big fish? I'd love to discuss further. Baseball is good. And fun to chat about.

[twinstalker]

Yuck.  I wouldn't give up the next eight years of Keaschall for a perpetually injured Luzardo.  Keaschall is a necessary piece to lineup if the Twins have any chance for good hitting in the near future.  The Twins send up a lineup of guys who struck out at too high a rate in the minors and expect them suddenly to have good ABs against MLB pitchers.

The Twins rarely select good hitters in the draft (I think the most recent draft was a waste of its first three picks, but the draft was bad overall).  If one of them comes through (and it would be K. Culpepper), I'll be surprised.  But they killed it in 2023 with Jenkins and Keaschall and may have signed a real good follow-up in Eeles.  These are the guys who can be extremely tough outs, and you are best to leave them out of trade deals for guys injured and nearing FA.

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I would love to have Luzardo, problem is he's had one healthy complete season in 6.

That's pretty much the bottom line. Luzardo is a player who COULD help a team, but he always seems to be battling injuries. If we are talking trades, I think we can do better without giving up top prospects. 

[Linus]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The defense is the big question mark for Keaschall. He's not a SS but could be anywhere in the OF or the right side of the infield. Is he a good fielder or is he bouncing around because they can't find a spot where he's good like Austin Martin? Is he all bat like Luis Arraez?

I e been wondering about this as well. Perhaps it was the elbow injury. Perhaps he is another of Falveys all bat no glove players. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 hours ago, Ryan_K said:

Royce and comp a pick for Luzardo, both have injury concerns. or add Nardi and Nick Fortes (def first catcher) and Marlins take on Vasquez.

 

I'd do this as Marlins fan. Old number 3s are getting 22mm a year, Luzardo is undervalued by MLB trade values

Royce isn't going for 2 years of a pitcher who has had injury concerns. I have been a fan of Luzardo for years, but Royce is off the table in those discussions.

[TopGunn#22]

I like the concept of a trade like this.  The biggest problem is making the money work out for the Twins in their current "self imposed" $130 million dollar budget.

I would haggle this trade around avoiding giving Keaschall up at the risk of blowing the deal.  He had an elbow issue that pretty much limited him to 2B/1B/DH in 2024.  He will overcome that in 2025.  His IF/OF ability along with his steady and consistently above average BAT is what I'm loath to send away.  At one point, Eddie Julien was supposed to be the guy at the top of the order for the Twins in the future.  Now, that guy seems to be Keaschall.

I don't mind the trade idea being for Luzardo.  Every year is a roll of the dice health wise.  Especially for SP.  Do we, as Twins fans, think the value of Joe Ryan has plummeted due to his season ending injury? Absolutely Not.  Look what "oft injured" Matt Boyd just got paid on the open market.  You can never have too much starting pitching and solid starting pitching keeps the BP fresh and effective.  Acquiring an upper tier SP would allow the Twins to keep Jax in the pen and allow them to package SWR in a trade to get a young catcher like Rushing or Cartaya from the Dodgers.

The target I would have with Miami to open discussions would be Sandy Alcantara.  You can argue that Luzardo is a #2 or #3.  But Alcantara is a former Cy Young winner.  he's an Ace.  A true #1.  He's also making $17 million per season for the next 3 years, about double than Luzardo but still an incredible bargain in today's arms race of MLB starting pitching.

Yes, Alcantara is coming off Tommy John and missed the entire 2024 season.  But reports on him are very positive.  He'll be ready to start the season without a problem.  Miami also owns the worst catching situation in MLB...it's terrible.  I would put together a deal in which Vasquez and his entire $10 million went to Miami and would be off set by Alcantara's $17 million.  I would include Gabe Gonzalez, Kal Culpepper, the competitive round A draft pick and Eddie Julien as an opening gambit. Nardi is also coming back to Minnesota.  We could haggle from that point.

All this would be contingent on sending Paddack away for next to nothing and packaging SWR and Castro to the Dodgers for one of those two young catchers.  If I had to swap SWR out for Duran, I'd do it and make Jax my closer.  My rotation would be Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and SWR/Festa (I can still dream about Roki Sasaki).  Jax is my closer. Nardi from #1 lefty.  If I shed Vasquez, Paddack and Castro and bring in Alcantara and Nardi I'm ahead about $4 million.  Maybe I sign Jose Iglesias to be my SS/2B/3B insurance for Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda and eventually Keaschall.  I'd sign Iglesias for 2-years.  If I had to include Brooks Lee in the deal to get Alcantara and Nardi I would absolutely sign Iglesias.  I would have a potent rotation for several years with young pitchers waiting in the wing if there were injuries.  I would have some good hitters with E-Rod, Keaschall and Walker Jenkins on the way. 

I think it would be a pretty solid outlook.  And once the ownership issue was resolved I'd be in a position to address any issues that came up without having to sweat a self imposed $130 payroll limitation.  

 

[Otaknam]

This actually makes some sense and would add a left handed starter and solidify the rotation. I believe Luzardo has two years remaining on his contract, so it’s not a one year deal. Keaschall could be a big loss, but right now that is an unknown. Culpepper appears to be at best a low rotation starter. And the team would also have to move Vasquez, no small task given his ludicrous contract. I think they can find a taker for Paddock and his $7.5 million contract. He has recovered from TJ and just needs more innings. Or maybe they just start Paddock and not make the trade, since Luzardo makes more than Paddock. .

[SF Twins Fan]

The Twins don't need starting pitching since their starting rotation already has Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews all with big league experience.  Raya, Morris, Culpepper, Lewis, and Castellano are all at AA or AAA and Prielipp isn't too far behind all of them.

The Twins need bullpen help and they need another good righthanded hitter.

[Otaknam]

12 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Yuck.  I wouldn't give up the next eight years of Keaschall for a perpetually injured Luzardo.  Keaschall is a necessary piece to lineup if the Twins have any chance for good hitting in the near future.  The Twins send up a lineup of guys who struck out at too high a rate in the minors and expect them suddenly to have good ABs against MLB pitchers.

The Twins rarely select good hitters in the draft (I think the most recent draft was a waste of its first three picks, but the draft was bad overall).  If one of them comes through (and it would be K. Culpepper), I'll be surprised.  But they killed it in 2023 with Jenkins and Keaschall and may have signed a real good follow-up in Eeles.  These are the guys who can be extremely tough outs, and you are best to leave them out of trade deals for guys injured and nearing FA.

Good points. Pitchers are always a big risk, especially starters with injury histories. But it’s too soon to declare the 2024 draft was poor. We won’t know that for at least two years. 

[cmoss84]

13 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

I think I just broke the record for negative responses! Nice!

Serious question though...people don't want 2 #2s? Don't like these SPs? Don't think it's enough bait to catch 2 big fish? I'd love to discuss further. Baseball is good. And fun to chat about.

A million thumbs down but nobody wants to explain. All good.

Here's more of my thought process:

1) Festa and Zebby are back end of rotation guys.

2) Raya is AAAA or MLB long reliever.

3) Miranda is an average MLB player-when he's healthy.

4) Julien is AAAA

5) G-Gon and Luke are nice prospects but ???

6) We might also be able to unload Paddock and/or Vazquez in the deal.

7) I want guys who can give quality playoff innings.

8) I also want a 6-man rotation:

Pablo-Sandy-Bailey-Jesus-Joe-SWR

9) Morris and Lewis (and soon Soto) will replace Festa and Zebby.

10) Sandy and Jesus will help put bodies in seats and show the FO/(new ?) owners are trying to win.

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Odd, I thought he was in the top 100 on FG updated, but he is 63 on MLB.com.... 

Fangraphs had Keaschall as a borderline top 100 prospect in May, when Keaschall was absolutely destroying A+. Keaschall's performance dipped quite a bit in AA as his power dropped, but he was still very good. Unfortunately, the TJ + poor fielding grades + going from elite production to very good production likely hit his stock a bit.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-top-100-prospects-update/
 

Quote

 

Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF, Minnesota Twins

As we approach work on the Twins list from top to bottom, we checked on Keaschall, who has done nothing but rake since entering pro ball, albeit in a relatively small sample. He’s shown feel for the zone, bat control, and modest power. Keaschall has never been a very good infield defender and the Twins have been experimenting with him in center field. He is very much still learning to play out there.

 

 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

A million thumbs down but nobody wants to explain. All good.

Here's more of my thought process:

1) Festa and Zebby are back end of rotation guys.

2) Raya is AAAA or MLB long reliever.

3) Miranda is an average MLB player-when he's healthy.

4) Julien is AAAA

5) G-Gon and Luke are nice prospects but ???

6) We might also be able to unload Paddock and/or Vazquez in the deal.

7) I want guys who can give quality playoff innings.

8) I also want a 6-man rotation:

Pablo-Sandy-Bailey-Jesus-Joe-SWR

9) Morris and Lewis (and soon Soto) will replace Festa and Zebby.

10) Sandy and Jesus will help put bodies in seats and show the FO/(new ?) owners are trying to win.

Jesus Luzardo is never healthy. I'm not trading anything worthwhile for him. You can't be a #2 starter in the trainer's room. He's living off 1 dominant year in 6 seasons. No thanks.

If you're right about all your projections, great the Twins didn't give up anything. But then, why would the Marlins want that return? Why would the Marlins want a bunch of AAAA players or back end starters? Quantity over quality for their 2 #2s? You're basically saying the Marlins would trade their 2 #2's (Alcantara is a Cy Young winner, hard to call that a #2, by the way) for 2 back end starters, a league average hitter, and a bunch of guys that don't deserve spots on major league teams while also maybe making them eat the contracts of Paddack and/or Vazquez? Why would they do that if all those guys are that useless? Keaschall is the only worthwhile player you've listed (according to your projections here) and both pitchers could return more than that on their own in an individual deal. Where is the motivation for Miami to take on this self-described terrible package of the Twins leftover roster waste?

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

A million thumbs down but nobody wants to explain. All good.

Here's more of my thought process:

1) Festa and Zebby are back end of rotation guys.

2) Raya is AAAA or MLB long reliever.

3) Miranda is an average MLB player-when he's healthy.

4) Julien is AAAA

5) G-Gon and Luke are nice prospects but ???

6) We might also be able to unload Paddock and/or Vazquez in the deal.

7) I want guys who can give quality playoff innings.

8) I also want a 6-man rotation:

Pablo-Sandy-Bailey-Jesus-Joe-SWR

9) Morris and Lewis (and soon Soto) will replace Festa and Zebby.

10) Sandy and Jesus will help put bodies in seats and show the FO/(new ?) owners are trying to win.

I don't think I reacted with a "disagree" on your post, but I can understand why people would. Taking a quick peek at BTV...

Alcantara = +47
Luzardo = +22
Total = +69

Keaschall = +23
Festa = +20
Julien = +17
Matthews = +16
Miranda = +16
Gonzalez = +7
Raya = +4
Total = +103

Your opinion on virtually every single one of those Twins players comes across pessimistic in terms of expected performance or perceived value for that performance. Your opinion of Alcantara and Luzardo comes across as optimistic and ignores the health risks or likelihood they'll be available in a playoff scenario at all. Alcantara and Luzardo both had terrible seasons in their last season on the mound (probably injury related, but how sure are we really?), and I expect Luzardo may need TJ. Combined, the two pitchers will make $23MM next year.

I also don't like a 6 man rotation at all. I don't see any benefit to health, and you're replacing starts from your best 5 pitchers with a back end arm who might not even be MLB caliber.

[cmoss84]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jesus Luzardo is never healthy. I'm not trading anything worthwhile for him. You can't be a #2 starter in the trainer's room. He's living off 1 dominant year in 6 seasons. No thanks.

If you're right about all your projections, great the Twins didn't give up anything. But then, why would the Marlins want that return? Why would the Marlins want a bunch of AAAA players or back end starters? Quantity over quality for their 2 #2s? You're basically saying the Marlins would trade their 2 #2's (Alcantara is a Cy Young winner, hard to call that a #2, by the way) for 2 back end starters, a league average hitter, and a bunch of guys that don't deserve spots on major league teams while also maybe making them eat the contracts of Paddack and/or Vazquez? Why would they do that if all those guys are that useless? Keaschall is the only worthwhile player you've listed (according to your projections here) and both pitchers could return more than that on their own in an individual deal. Where is the motivation for Miami to take on this self-described terrible package of the Twins leftover roster waste?

I didn't say it's a terrible package. I just said this is who I would trade. The Marlins are going to evaluate these guys way different than me...and they are probably more right than me. That's why I was asking everyone's opinion to see if this package would be enough...

You could go back and forth all day debating whether to trade these guys for "injury prone" front end starters. Hell, even in this thread it does from "get this deal done now!" to "I wouldn't trade anyone for Luzardo!" 

A lot of variables and rolling the dice in this deal. I just simply wanted to know why all of the disagreements...if people think I am giving up too much or not enough...

 

[cmoss84]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think I reacted with a "disagree" on your post, but I can understand why people would. Taking a quick peek at BTV...

Alcantara = +47
Luzardo = +22
Total = +69

Keaschall = +23
Festa = +20
Julien = +17
Matthews = +16
Miranda = +16
Gonzalez = +7
Raya = +4
Total = +103

Your opinion on virtually every single one of those Twins players comes across pessimistic in terms of expected performance or perceived value for that performance. Your opinion of Alcantara and Luzardo comes across as optimistic and ignores the health risks or likelihood they'll be available in a playoff scenario at all. Alcantara and Luzardo both had terrible seasons in their last season on the mound (probably injury related, but how sure are we really?), and I expect Luzardo may need TJ. Combined, the two pitchers will make $23MM next year.

I also don't like a 6 man rotation at all. I don't see any benefit to health, and you're replacing starts from your best 5 pitchers with a back end arm who might not even be MLB caliber.

Correct-everyone is going to evaluate these players differently. Risks on both sides. For me, the juice is worth the squeeze to have a REALLY good starting rotation to make a push in the playoffs. There are also a lot of different opinions on 6-man rotations. I think it would be perfect for our squad. I went into detail in a thread a while back about the benefits of it...including quite a few sources. But to each their own! Thanks for your guy's input! 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

I didn't say it's a terrible package. I just said this is who I would trade. The Marlins are going to evaluate these guys way different than me...and they are probably more right than me. That's why I was asking everyone's opinion to see if this package would be enough...

You could go back and forth all day debating whether to trade these guys for "injury prone" front end starters. Hell, even in this thread it does from "get this deal done now!" to "I wouldn't trade anyone for Luzardo!" 

A lot of variables and rolling the dice in this deal. I just simply wanted to know why all of the disagreements...if people think I am giving up too much or not enough...

 

I'm saying your explanation is trying to sell it to us as "we're really not giving up much here because..." and that means the Marlins aren't getting much. Your argument is that these guys aren't that good. In that case why would the Marlins want that package?

You went with an attempt at quantity over quality. Those packages don't work. Teams want quality. I think you gave up way too much, but that's because I don't want anything to do with Luzardo and I view a number of the pieces you suggested trading differently than you appear to. I was just pointing out the flaw in the logic in your explanation. "We'll give up a bunch of back end/average major leaguers or AAAA players for 2 stars" is not a realistic package. If teams are giving up stars they want star potential back.

[cmoss84]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm saying your explanation is trying to sell it to us as "we're really not giving up much here because..." and that means the Marlins aren't getting much. Your argument is that these guys aren't that good. In that case why would the Marlins want that package?

You went with an attempt at quantity over quality. Those packages don't work. Teams want quality. I think you gave up way too much, but that's because I don't want anything to do with Luzardo and I view a number of the pieces you suggested trading differently than you appear to. I was just pointing out the flaw in the logic in your explanation. "We'll give up a bunch of back end/average major leaguers or AAAA players for 2 stars" is not a realistic package. If teams are giving up stars they want star potential back.

I just wrote the same thing above so I don't want to be redundant. Everyone evaluates players and injury risks differently. Too me, this is a package that MIGHT get it done, and a package that wouldn't hurt my feelings losing. 

[TopGunn#22]

I would offer this compromise to chpettit19 and cmoss84:

Sandy Alcantara (47) for Festa (20), Julien (17), C. Vasquez and his $10 million,(Value Unknown, possibly negative, but Miami desperately needs a real Catcher). Gabe Gonzalez (7), Marco Raya (4).

(Marco Raya seems low, but that could be because he profiles to the BP.  He rarely makes it past 4 innings per start).  

Raw Value is Alcantara 47   Twins give up 48.0 and C. Vasquez with his entire salary.  I don't know what Nardi's value is.  If I did and I knew some values on other Twins players I would try to weave them in to include Nardi.  

Miami is getting some very nice talent.  Some of which has played at the major league level already and some that is getting close.  The Twins get an Ace potential SP who should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and would be ready to go to begin the 2025 season.  

This deal must be followed with a trade to acquire a young catcher from the Dodger organization.  Willi Castro is a perfect fit for what LA likes to do.  I don't know what Rushing or Cartaya are valued at with BBTV or what Castro, SWR or Jhoan Duran as possible pieces for Rushing or Cartaya.  

Miranda plays 1B.  Lee/Lewis at 2B/3B.  Correa at SS.  Wallner, Buxton, Larnach in the OF.  Jeffers and Rushing/Cartaya at C.  DH would revolve depending on whatever other trades were made.  Paddack is dealt for a nominal return to off-load his $7.5 million.  Rotation: Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, ??  The #5 spot could be Jax.  It could be Zebby Matthews.  It could be someone else from outside the organization.  

[tony&rodney]

A month ago I suggested a trade for Sandy Alcantara. My proposal was two players who can play for the Marlins now (Miami's choice:Julien or Miranda and Chris Paddack) plus three prospects that do not need to be placed on the 40 person roster (Charlee Soto, Billy Amick, and Gabriel Gonzalez). I would be ok with replacing Paddack with Christian Vazquez and adding a prospect such as Kaelen Culpepper. If I were a Miami fan this might seem fair. It is a pile of players. I am higher on David Festa than most, so no DF. FWIW Alcantara had a value of 27 on BTV one month ago.

I'm not in favor of a 6 man rotation because it puts additional pressure on the bullpen guys. There isn't any evidence that a pitcher goes another inning or two with an extra day between starts. Jesus Luzardo may make a strong return and he is worth trading Julien and Kaelen Culpepper plus the comp pick, but I don't like the fact that Jesus has been unable to complete more than one year without incident. I'm unlikely to trade for Luzardo. 

It is my belief that some people are underestimating Zebby Matthews and Luke Keaschall quite a bit. 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree T&R, that's why I would try to keep Keaschall out of any deal for either Alcantara or Luzardo.  I think Keaschall is a future answer at a number of positions...2B, 1B, any of the 3 OF positions.  His bat will force him into the lineup, possibly even in 2025 at some point and if he's even just average at the positions he could play that would be an upgrade on many of the gloves the Twins currently employ.

According to BBTV Julien has a value of 17. (Big Thank You to Bean5302!!!) That's a nice piece to bargain with and since I don't think he's got a future with Lee and Keaschall ahead of him in my mind, I'd be actively looking to trade him this off season.  

It is very interesting that a month ago, Alcantara had a value of 27 and now it's shot up 20 points to 47.  To me, that indicates knowledge that he's looking fully recovered from TJ and is ready to begin the season on time.  In effect, the package you could have offered for him a month or two ago would now require Festa to get it done.  I'd rather not trade Festa, but if it meant getting a former Cy Young winner who was clearly the #1 in Miami when Lopez was a #3 I would do it.  I'd also do it because I have confidence in Zebby Matthews eventually turning a corner to be a solid SP.  

The problem with my proposed trade is that you would have to make some trades before or after this deal.  As long as the $130 million salary total is etched in stone, even if you're sending Miami a badly needed, actual major league catcher in Vasquez, his $10 million still puts the Twins $7 million more in the hole when taking back Alcantara's $17 million.

But a rotation of Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and whoever the #5 would be is hellish good.  If Lewis and others bounce back offensively and Wallner is closer to end of season Wallner as opposed to his ice-cold start, E-Rod/Keaschall come up at the All Star break, the Twins could be a darn good team.  

No single trade is going vault the Twins to the top of the division.  There are at least 3 trades that would need to be made involving Vasquez, Paddack and Castro clearing $23.5 million in salary.  Also needed would be the addition of another catcher to pair with Jeffers.  But not just some vet retread.  A prospect ready to make his MLB debut like Dalton Rushing or Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers.

I'd love to know what the BBTV is for Rushing and Cartaya (Bean5302 can you help me???) as well as Castro and Jhoan Duran/Griffin Jax/SWR.  I feel like it's going to take something like that to get one of Rushing/Cartaya but I'm flying blind on if it's even realistic.  The Dodgers would certainly have interest in Castro as well as either Duran or Jax (they may be looking for a closer to replace Evan Phillips).  Even SWR is a possibility as the Dodgers have talented SP that's tremendously injury prone (Kershaw, Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Yamamoto.  Buehler and Paxton are probably gone.  Someone like SWR could be VERY attractive to them for back end rotation stability.  

The Dodgers aren't going to be interested in minor league talent.  They want to defend their World Series Championship.  Neither Rushing or Cartaya is cracking their catching depth chart with All Star Will Smith and capable backup Austin Barnes.  If they can get something that helps them NOW, I think a deal can be made.  

OR...the Dodgers just trade Rushing or Cartaya in a package to Miami for Alcantara and...end of Twins trade rumor.  

[tony&rodney]

39 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree T&R, that's why I would try to keep Keaschall out of any deal for either Alcantara or Luzardo.  I think Keaschall is a future answer at a number of positions...2B, 1B, any of the 3 OF positions.  His bat will force him into the lineup, possibly even in 2025 at some point and if he's even just average at the positions he could play that would be an upgrade on many of the gloves the Twins currently employ.

According to BBTV Julien has a value of 17. (Big Thank You to Bean5302!!!) That's a nice piece to bargain with and since I don't think he's got a future with Lee and Keaschall ahead of him in my mind, I'd be actively looking to trade him this off season.  

It is very interesting that a month ago, Alcantara had a value of 27 and now it's shot up 20 points to 47.  To me, that indicates knowledge that he's looking fully recovered from TJ and is ready to begin the season on time.  In effect, the package you could have offered for him a month or two ago would now require Festa to get it done.  I'd rather not trade Festa, but if it meant getting a former Cy Young winner who was clearly the #1 in Miami when Lopez was a #3 I would do it.  I'd also do it because I have confidence in Zebby Matthews eventually turning a corner to be a solid SP.  

The problem with my proposed trade is that you would have to make some trades before or after this deal.  As long as the $130 million salary total is etched in stone, even if you're sending Miami a badly needed, actual major league catcher in Vasquez, his $10 million still puts the Twins $7 million more in the hole when taking back Alcantara's $17 million.

But a rotation of Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and whoever the #5 would be is hellish good.  If Lewis and others bounce back offensively and Wallner is closer to end of season Wallner as opposed to his ice-cold start, E-Rod/Keaschall come up at the All Star break, the Twins could be a darn good team.  

No single trade is going vault the Twins to the top of the division.  There are at least 3 trades that would need to be made involving Vasquez, Paddack and Castro clearing $23.5 million in salary.  Also needed would be the addition of another catcher to pair with Jeffers.  But not just some vet retread.  A prospect ready to make his MLB debut like Dalton Rushing or Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers.

I'd love to know what the BBTV is for Rushing and Cartaya (Bean5302 can you help me???) as well as Castro and Jhoan Duran/Griffin Jax/SWR.  I feel like it's going to take something like that to get one of Rushing/Cartaya but I'm flying blind on if it's even realistic.  The Dodgers would certainly have interest in Castro as well as either Duran or Jax (they may be looking for a closer to replace Evan Phillips).  Even SWR is a possibility as the Dodgers have talented SP that's tremendously injury prone (Kershaw, Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Yamamoto.  Buehler and Paxton are probably gone.  Someone like SWR could be VERY attractive to them for back end rotation stability.  

The Dodgers aren't going to be interested in minor league talent.  They want to defend their World Series Championship.  Neither Rushing or Cartaya is cracking their catching depth chart with All Star Will Smith and capable backup Austin Barnes.  If they can get something that helps them NOW, I think a deal can be made.  

OR...the Dodgers just trade Rushing or Cartaya in a package to Miami for Alcantara and...end of Twins trade rumor.  

Miami may have a position of holding Alcantara. Tough to know because that organization seems a little dysfunctional. If I were the Miami GM, I would like the high number of prospects my deal offered. I might throw in Raya. Right now I'm too bullish on Festa. I have never been much of a fan of BTV.

The search for a catcher continues. My original idea (from October) was to focus on an athletic type and/or defense-first young catcher. The list included guys like Teel, Ford, Romo, Rushing, and a couple of others. My top choice was/is Jeferson Quero because his glove plays now. The reason I cooled on both Rushing and Cartaya was because neither is expected to play much behind the plate in the next two years. They are well behind in learning how to catch. I was not very impressed when I watched Rushing behind the plate last season. I was impressed when Dalton was at the plate; he can hit. We have to remember that Dodger and Yankee prospects always get more hype too. I'm unclear what Seattle requires for Harry Ford. Would Julien and Varland get it done. After shifting around for the last month plus on ideas, I'm right back to my first thought - Quero for Brooks Lee. Finally, I expect that Woods Richardson is more than enough for Rushing. 

I guess we can only hope the Twins are engaged in conversations seeking to upgrade the catchers of the future. What strikes me about this offseason for the Twins is that one deal is unlikely to solve their problems  and a trade may actually require another deal. This complicates how the team proceeds but if the Twins intend to compete for an AL Central crown they will almost certainly need to consummate a couple of transactions. I would be delighted to humbly eat these words next October if the current roster blooms.

[TopGunn#22]

Good points T&R.  I certainly hope the plan is not just to sit still and run it back again with the current roster.  I think we have the talent to compete for a divisional crown or at least a Wild Card, but tweeks are needed to make that a greater possibility.  

Quero is probably the best #1 target based on his superior defensive ability.  Ford probably #2.  Rushing can hit.  On that we agree, and I think we each agree that Quero and Ford are far superior defensively.  I had always thought the Dodgers viewed Cartaya as the total package, but again, they are very satisfied with Barnes as the backup to Smith.  

With Turang and Ortiz at 2B & 3B the only reason I could see the Brewers going for Lee is if he would become their starting SS.  Adames won't be back so the Brew Crew has a HUGE hole at SS.  Would SWR be enough to get Quero??  If so, I'd make that deal in heartbeat, before even dealing Vasquez.  As much as I like Festa, I'd even give him up straight up for Quero.