Should the Twins Trade One Of Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan? And If So, Which?

[Matthew Lenz]

While it has taken longer than some expected, the Minnesota Twins regime formerly known as “Falvine” has built one of the best pitching pipelines in all of baseball. With some of those pitchers at or close to the major-league level, there's an opportunity for the Twins to explore the trade market for their more experienced pitchers.

Image courtesy of Left: © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images; Right: © David Banks-Imagn Images;

In addition to David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who each debuted in 2024, the Twins added Marco Raya to their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 Draft and have more prospects, such as Andrew Morris and Cory Lewis, close to ready for the majors. A little further away, you have C.J. Culpepper and Connor Prielipp, who are both prospects on the rise. While prospect development (especially for pitchers) is never linear, the Twins have plenty of “bullets in the chamber” if they were to explore the trade market of one of their established starters.

Cody Christie recently looked at the idea of trading Pablo López and, of course, Chris Paddack has been the subject of trade conversation among Twins Daily writers, as well. The challenging part about moving either of those would be their contracts: López is locked up long-term and Paddack’s $7.5 million may be more than some teams are willing to pay without getting an additional asset. However, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are similarly solid starters with more cost-effective team control left. They figure to have substantial trade value. It would be wild for the Twins to trade both of these arms but, if they had to pick one, which one makes a better trade candidate? Let’s dive in.

Before looking at the outlooks of Ryan and Ober, we have to establish what the goal of dealing either of the two would be. Would the Twins look to keep the better pitcher, or would they look to trade whichever guy would net more in return? Given the team is within a competitive window, I would err on the side of keeping whomever they deem the better of the two pitchers. From a controllability perspective, both players are in their first year of arbitration and Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects them to earn somewhere in the ballpark of $3.5 million in 2025.

Joe Ryan
Ryan is coming off a productive season shortened by a right shoulder injury. Across 135 innings, he carried a 3.60 ERA, a 3.44 FIP and an impressive 23.0% K-BB rate. He features one of the best fastballs in the gam; the pitch has accrued a run value of 47 since he permanently joined the rotation in 2022. As was the trend ahead of the 2024 season, he added a splitter to his arsenal and it quickly became his second-most used and most effective pitch. His sweeper and slider grade out as below-average pitches.

I really like Ryan’s long-term outlook, because he is more of a crafty pitcher than one who relies on power. I think that reduces the risk of significant injury and increases the likelihood that his production is sustainable. My biggest concern with Ryan is his aforementioned pitch arsenal featuring just two plus pitches, and I think he could really benefit from developing his slider more. Without developing a third out pitch, I think his value now is the highest it will be as a solid number two on a competitive team.

Bailey Ober
Overall, Ober had a very solid 2024 season. He would have been a dark-horse Cy Young Award candidate, if we could just remove the five worst starts of his season. Those clunkers accounted for more than 40% of his earned runs, bloating his ERA to 3.98. Regardless, he posted a solid 20.8% K-BB rate and a 93rd-percentile chase rate, thanks to three plus offerings. 

Similar to Ryan, Ober is a crafty pitcher who relies on his command of the strike zone, as opposed to overpowering hitters. I think that bodes well for his long-term outlook. Unlike Ryan, Ober doesn’t have the “stuff” to overcome days where he is struggling to locate, which leads to the blow-ups we saw in 2024. From a Stuff+ perspective, his changeup is the only plus pitch in his arsenal, which gives him little room for error; hitters feast when a pitch gets too much of the plate. I’d be interested to see him deploy his curveball more. That pitch has generated positive results in a very, very small sample (1.1% usage in 2024, 6.7% in 2023, 11.9& in 2022) and grades out decently via Stuff+. While I think he has proven that those implosions are few and far between, I worry that they will continue if his changeup is the only pitch with an above-average Stuff+. Again, similar to Ryan, I think Ober’s value is at its peak, given his production and team control, and will always be viewed as a solid number three on a competitive team.

So Who Should We Trade?
Well, I’m not going to put my foot in the ground and say Minnesota should trade one of these two. While their value may be at its ceiling, I think a top of the rotation of López, Ryan, and Ober bodes very well, even in October. But, if the Twins were to explore the trade market of one of these two, I’d like them to shop Ober. I think the two carry roughly the same market value, but Ryan is the better of the two. The one thing that might sway my opinion is if we had insight on their signability, as the two are close enough in value and productivity that if one of them indicated they’d be willing to ink a team-friendly extension, I could be convinced to keep that arm over the other.

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Do you think we should trade one of Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober given the depth of our minor league system? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Craig Arko]

Pretty easy choice: nope.

[Mike Sixel]

Is this a real question? 

[MinnesotaTwins26]

If this was real, definitely Joe. He is one year older and has a more extensive injury history. Ryan is good but Bailey Ober has also been trending upward throughout the last few seasons.

[Parfigliano]

Why trade young team controlled starting pitching?

[CRF]

C'mon now...stop making this stuff up. 

[thelanges5]

 

[FargoFanMan]

No, I don’t get the sense of either. While we are at it no to Pablo as well. After 20 years of trying to establish a legitimate rotation we’re now gonna trade them away? For what? What would we get that would make this team better? 

[Next Year]

What would be the best case scenario in trading either?  More pitching prospects you hope will develop?  A young mlb ready 1st basemen?  Doesn’t make sense.  Farm is pretty stocked w players who are blocked. 

[USAFChief]

Ah, the "pitching pipeline."

 

Never gets old.

[PatPfund]

Despite the doom and gloom, the Twins are (rightfully) considered a primary contender for their division title. Trading away one of your top 3 SPs is something a bad team does, not one with aspirations for the playoffs. And naming a bunch of prospect names means nothing for '25. Zebby had a great year last year until he hit the majors (where he was often lit up, confirming some scouting that his fastball is very MLB-hittable). Connor Prielipp can't throw 50 innings as a starter without blowing out his elbow (meaning he is likely headed for the 'pen not the rotation). Marco Raya never throws more than 5 innings. The others haven't even sniffed the bigs. So, no. You don't trade either of them. (Unless the season blows up so bad the team is out of it by June.) 

[Cap'n Piranha]

It all depends on your view of the team.  If you think the team can win 95 games, the answer is trade neither.  If you think the team will win 75 games, the answer is trade both.  If you think somewhere in between, the answer is wait until the trade deadline, or wait to be blown away by the offer.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

In terms of trade value, either of these guys would likely net more than any other player on the roster.  I think Ryan might be worth ever so slightly more than Ober, but the difference isn't much.  Young-ish, successful, controllable starting pitching is worth a lot.  That being said, I don't know how you can trade them.  The Twins are trying to win not rebuild, so they're not in the hunt for more prospects right now.  Keep them and let them form a nice solid top of the rotation with Lopez for now. 

 

[Vanimal46]

It’s going to be a really long offseason if we’re posting garbage like this on December 5th. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The only way it would make sense to trade either one, is a Hershel Walker colossally stupid lopsided trade in the Twins’ favor. That doesn’t happen

[Blyleven2011]

There is already alot of animosity towards the FO and owners  ...

If this would happen , they can forget  about putting fans in the stands  ...

Anything can happen  though , they cut payroll for 2024 , so they could possibly do another unfavorable move and trade 1  pitcher , it better be the right one ( paddock )...

Me personally am tired of having all these prospects playing in the minors and hearing all this hype how good they are  , or there blocked and we don't have a roster spot for them and they rot in the minors  ...

[Seth Stohs]

No... just no. I don't even get why this is a topic. I mean, beyond the "because they should take calls on everyone" stuff, there is no reason to deal them. If overwhelmed, sure, but these two have three more years of team control. And they're both legit starters, with Pablo. That's a pretty good start. 

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Why trade young team controlled starting pitching?

For a massive return of MLB players/prospects, I would hope. But like the others here, I wouldn't pull the trigger unless I'm getting a king's ransom.

[nicksaviking]

It really seems like people want to make a move just to make a move. You don't get better this year by trading your best players, and if this ownership group is packing up, why do we want them making decisions to impact the future? 

If you can't get significantly better, standing pat is the right choice. Even if it's boring.

[dxpavelka]

Not sure why a team that has spent most of the last (two, or three, or four) decade(s) looking for starting pitching would trade either of these guys.  Also not sure why someone would write an article like this and not speculate on what such a trade might get you in return.

[FilthyMogwai]

I get it, you're bored. It's probably going to be another boring Twins offseason. But, you still didn't have to write this.

[Fatbat]

Even insomnia can’t make sense of this…..

[Doctor Wu]

I'll join the chorus: no way we trade either one of those pitchers. I mean, are the Twins still hoping to contend next season, or have we suddenly slipped into a rebuilding mode? If we seriously want to get into the playoffs again, we need both Ryan AND Ober all season, and healthy all season.

[Riverbrian]

If they are rebuilding. Trading our controllable starters would return the best bang, 

If they are not rebuilding... actually trying to win. It would make trying to win as difficult as possible. 

[Mark G]

As long as we are getting silly, I say keep Ryan ( I love that haircut too much to give him up), and trade Ober and Lopez to the Yankees for their entire 2025 draft board and all their international bonus pool money for the next 2 years.  Just think of all the young controllable talent we could fill the farm with.  Just think how good the Saints could be in 4 or 5 years.  🤭

[dxpavelka]

9 minutes ago, Mark G said:

As long as we are getting silly, I say keep Ryan ( I love that haircut too much to give him up), and trade Ober and Lopez to the Yankees for their entire 2025 draft board and all their international bonus pool money for the next 2 years.  Just think of all the young controllable talent we could fill the farm with.  Just think how good the Saints could be in 4 or 5 years.  🤭

How about we put it in Ryan's contract that he has to go back to the Thor hair cut he had the first couple months after we traded for him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I will just say, as always, it depends on the return. If a difference maker is coming back, you have to listen. 

[Doctor Gast]

So you are suggesting to further shake things up by trading economic Ryan & or Ober with still upside for an expensive experienced SP that has reached their upside & might even be on the downside? It may make sense to Falvey but not to me. It seems like rouge,  where Falvey comes in to save the day by not trading Lopez, Ober or Ryan from ownership's chopping block. If we need more veteran SPs, we don't trade veteran SPs we trade the prospects & rookies.

Trading Paddack isn't that tough of a sell. His $7.5M price tag is a fair price for Paddack's services & everybody but MIA is looking for SPs. They just have to stop advertising that they are having a Fire Sale. Lopez is a top commodity & should not be considered for trading. Unless this FO botch another open-window opportunity then if Falvey can't put together a winner & he's fixed in this organization so why pay a Lopez or Correa?

We have a lot of young players we should trade. Why keep on trading those we need?

[tony&rodney]

The general idea this offseason should be to find a path towards acquiring players who improve the team for 2025. As such, no player is off the table. The return needs to justify the deal and it is possible for a trade to benefit both teams. The articles on Twins Daily merely lay out any possible scenario with looks at all of the players.

A trade of Carlos Correa seems unlikely and if completed it seems less likely that the Twins would have more potential than competing with Correa at shortstop. I can only see a Correa trade working if the Twins follow it up with 4-5 additional moves. Buxton is also unlikely to get moved but it is possible. Despite Byron missing a third or more of every season his play generally is well worth the contract. The problem of an inadequate back up to Buck is on the Twins front office not BB.

The market for pitching is always frantic and the price for Rtan and Ober should be a regular player who bats in the first half of a lineup. I totally doubt the Red Sox panic, but a deal for Jarren Duran has potential for Minnesota as one out there example. I would like to see both Joe and Bailey be Twins but it would be shocking to see either sign a long term contract with Minnesota. Both have bet on themsleves thus far, seem like they will continue to, and the Twins seem like a team unwilling to commit money at a time when the team is up for sale. 

[rv78]

Unless you are having a fire sale, you don't trade Ryan or Ober. If you are rebuilding or even just trying to improve incrementally, you build around them. Neither one is expensive. Both have potential for more upside and unless you find a cheaper option elsewhere that is just as good with MORE upside, losing either one would be a step backwards. Anymore foolish ideas?