Emmanuel Rodriguez Is Coming In Hot

[Nick Nelson]

He's one of the best prospects in baseball and he's on the verge of big-league readiness. Emmanuel Rodriguez represents a very intriguing crux point in Minnesota's planning.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson / St. Paul Saints

The Twins face a quandary this offseason: They need to get better offensively, but their available funds are limited if not non-existent. Even if the front office is unable to be active in making additions, however, there are still reasons for hope. Minnesota's offense can get a lot more effective under a new hitting coach with fuller seasons from Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, as well as rebounds and improvements from returning young players.

But there's another factor you might be overlooking in the Twins' short-term offensive outlook: Emmanuel Rodriguez. The meteoric young outfielder reached Triple-A at age 21 this year, and is considered one of the the highest-upside bats in all of the minors. The Twins might have a game-changer on their hands.

Rising Despite Setbacks
The story of Rodriguez's journey through the minors has followed a disturbingly familiar pattern: glimpses of absolutely brilliance, repeatedly disrupted by serious injuries. Rodriguez missed significant time in 2022 with a knee injury, 2023 with an ab injury, and 2024 with a thumb injury that he aggravated multiple times. 

This past season Rodriguez was limited to 47 games and 209 plate appearances. In spite of that, he slid into the top 30 on MLB Pipeline's list of top prospects, moving up to No. 29 after ranking No. 42 entering the season. 

It says a lot about what Rodriguez has been able to do when on the field. His .863 OPS in 2023 led all hitters in the High-A Midwest League. He then made the jump to Double-A in 2024 and slashed .298/.479/.621 in 167 plate appearances, drawing walks in 25% of his plate appearances with an astonishing .323 ISO (slugging minus average). This is a power/patience combo on a level that's virtually unheard of.

Rodriguez was impressive enough in the small sample with Wichita that he was promoted to Triple-A at year's end. Assuming he gets past the thumb injury that plagued him, Emma will enter the 2025 season as one of the top impact bats in the upper levels of any team's system. 

 

How Does Rodriguez Fit In?
Could Rodriguez compete for a spot on the Opening Day roster? It's not out of the question, especially if there's an injury somewhere in the outfield. But for the time being, the Twins seem to have lefty bats already locked into both corners, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner coming off strong seasons. Those two are also seemingly in the plans for a while going forward, although Larnach is now into arbitration and of course designated hitter is also available.

I could easily see Larnach being shopped in a trade, if not this offseason then certainly next. Right now would present an opportunity to sell relatively high, with Larnach having played his fullest and most productive season at age 27. He's slated to make around $2 million in arbitration next year and his cost will keep going up after that if he keeps playing well, so there's a financial angle here. But the main goal of such a move would be trading for value and opening up a clear path for Rodriguez.

We're going to find out how much the Twins believe in Rodriguez as a center field. It's been almost his exclusive position in the minors, but there seems to be a sense he's more likely to end up in a corner at some point. If the Twins do trust Rodriguez in center, though, that would be a huge help. Buxton is now into his 30s and may be transitioning away from CF at some point, not to mention his perpetual risk of injury. The Twins have mostly been lacking for quality backup options behind Buxton but Rodriguez could fulfill that role in 2025 while potentially being groomed as his successor.

 

Of course, the flip side is that the front office could seek to trade Rodriguez himself, especially with another superstar outfield prospect (Walker Jenkins) not far behind him in line. That's probably not the way a budget-conscious team will, or should, operate but it's a possibility worth considering. Rodriguez would boast tremendous value as a trade chip; I noted last offseason that his unique profile can make him a coveted asset in the eyes of other teams, but also the kind of talent Minnesota could live to regret giving up. He's only more in-demand after convincingly conquering Double-A.

One way or another, Rodriguez figures to be a factor for the Twins, and sooner than later. He can get lost in the shuffle since he missed much of the past season while Jenkins further solidified his standing as one of the top prospects in baseball (ranked No. 2 by MLB Pipeline) while Brooks Lee broke into the majors, but Emma is a premier attraction in his own right and he's almost here. 

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[arby58]

I'm not sure I would label Larnach's 2024 performance as a 'strong season.' It was certainly better than prior years, but he strikes me as a fourth outfielder/DH type - he's not fleet of foot or a particularly good defensive outfielder. That said, he was better offensively than Kepler and I do think it's time to part company with Max. If that is the case, the Twins are a bit thin in terms of outfield depath, so I doubt Larnach is trade bait in the near future, as Rodriguez, for all his obvious talent, has to show an ability to hit big league pitching and stay healthy. 

I think it nearly impossible for the Twins to trade Rodriguez - the fan mutiny would be enormous, and the Twins likely would regret it for years to come.

[FlyingFinn]

Very SSS but Rodriguez has been a good clutch hitter. In 2023, he hit walk off homer in spring training (hey, it was against the Yankees!) and hit the game winning homer IIRC in the playoffs in Wichita's title clinching game. Sometimes, certain players just have that "clutch" gene.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a firm believer in developing our young players & when they are MLB ready give them a shot, instead of getting a questionable veteran, yet in some cases it's debatable. Keirsey did everything in AAA & was worthy to be called up early to MLB & get very valuable playing time. Margot was a terrible decision from the start & I voiced my displeasure #1 Margot was very questionable offensively & defensively #2 increased in salary #3 forced Martin to play out of his comfort zone, #4 losing Miller, many would debate the tradeoff for Doncon & most of all #5 He took up the valuable roster spot & valuable playing time away from Keirsey which kept him from progressing in the MLB.

Keirsey would have added to Twins over Margot but w/o him playing that much it makes it difficult to know how much & how truly we can evaluate him. Keirsey is a place holder for Emma. Giving Keirsey that extra playing time would add value to him, &  gives us more options on who we have available for trades. A LH-hitting quality CF is a premium. Hopefully, he'll get his chance this spring, limited as that may be.

Emma is very close to be MLB ready & will have a great impact when he does. IMO he'll return to AAA after spring training. How long he stays there depends how well tears things up down there. A high MLB ready prospect like Emma, I'd not trade.

[Reptevia]

59 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Rodriguez, for all his obvious talent, has to show an ability to hit big league pitching and stay healthy. 

That applies to every player on the team and almost no one has been able to pull it off. Castro?

[jmlease1]

huge fan of Emma. He can absolutely hit and the ball explodes off his bat. It will be interesting to see if he needs to add more aggression to his approach at the plate to keep from ending up in too many 2-strike counts and make sure he's giving his bat the best opportunity to play up, but he's oozing talent.

Assuming Carlos Santana is not back (due to self-imposed payroll limitations) and they still have enough confidence in Julien to roll with him at the start of the season, there's really only 1-2 spots for position players available. One would have to be for a backup CF; would the Twins be ready to roll with Emma in that spot, or will they prefer to have someone with more defensive chops?

Helman could get a chance, Kiersey could be seen as an option (and if they roll with Kiersey, it's hard to see them keeping another LH OF bat out the gate, especially one with options and little time in AAA). Austin Martin was disappointing defensively and unimpressive at the plate, but works from the right side of the plate and does bring some speed and experience.

I suspect Emma starts in AAA, but I'd love for him to crush in spring training and force the Twins hand. he's also never had trouble facing LHP, so maybe they'll be less scared of the platoon disadvantage in his case. Health is the only thing potentially holding him back, and my god I am sick of talking about health in relation to our best prospects!

[Blyleven2011]

I don't see Rodriguez starting the season on the opening day roster ...

It used to be a player that was on the fringe of the MLB was sent to the AFL to be ready to go on opening day , it doesn't seem like that is the case anymore  ...

Some more seasoning in AAA to earn the position , and I mean earn if he's ready , not a depth player to fill in for injuries  ...

[DJL44]

Emmanuel Rodriguez is going to play every day as long as he's healthy. He's not coming up to be a bench player. They'll keep him in AAA until one of Larnach, Buxton or Wallner gets hurt (which is inevitable). He'll take the spot of whoever was injured. I expect he'll go up and down next season like Brooks Lee did this season.

[LambchoP]

My guess is Emma starts at AAA and the Twins roll with Martin or Keirsey Jr as the 4rth OF, at least until Rodriguez and/or Rosario are ready for a full-time role. The Twins' future OF looks bright. Rodriguez, Jenkins, Rosario. Few more possibilities in Mccusker, Eeles, Gonzalez. Not to mention Wallner. Once one or two more outfielders prove themselves healthy and ready, I could see a Larnach trade. Too many lefty bats.

[jorgenswest]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm a firm believer in developing our young players & when they are MLB ready give them a shot, instead of getting a questionable veteran, yet in some cases it's debatable. Keirsey did everything in AAA & was worthy to be called up early to MLB & get very valuable playing time. Margot was a terrible decision from the start & I voiced my displeasure #1 Margot was very questionable offensively & defensively #2 increased in salary #3 forced Martin to play out of his comfort zone, #4 losing Miller, many would debate the tradeoff for Doncon & most of all #5 He took up the valuable roster spot & valuable playing time away from Keirsey which kept him from progressing in the MLB.

Keirsey would have added to Twins over Margot but w/o him playing that much it makes it difficult to know how much & how truly we can evaluate him. Keirsey is a place holder for Emma. Giving Keirsey that extra playing time would add value to him, &  gives us more options on who we have available for trades. A LH-hitting quality CF is a premium. Hopefully, he'll get his chance this spring, limited as that may be.

Emma is very close to be MLB ready & will have a great impact when he does. IMO he'll return to AAA after spring training. How long he stays there depends how well tears things up down there. A high MLB ready prospect like Emma, I'd not trade.

This is about Rodriguez so I assume your comments of Keirsey is your concern that the Twins will not give Rodriguez a shot since they not give Keirsey a shot.

Keirsey up a wRC+ of 119 in his second stint in AAA. He put up a wRC+ of 123 in his second stint in AA. That isn’t encouraging and suggest he will struggle to hit at the major league level. It does not suggest major league readiness with the bat. The numbers and improvement from his first stints do offer some hope that he will take a step towards 130-150 given enough time.

Rodriguez in his first stint in AA had a wRC+ of 203 which followed seasons of 145 and 196 in A+ and A. That is a whole different world of minor league performance.

[tony&rodney]

Emmanuel has his weaknesses. Injuries and high K rates are a problem as noted by Nick. If healthy and focused, EmRod is ready right now. The fact that he hits from the left side is irrelevant because he doesn't have a weakness versus LH pitching. The Twins need some players who can play defense and Rodriguez is a very good outfielder. I doubt Buxton will volunteer to move off of centerfield. Providing that Emmanuel shows himself ready in Spring Training, the Twins have their new left fielder. Larnach can be the DH.

[beckmt]

I would rather trade Wallner, who is a 3 outcome type of player. Larnach at least shows signs of being able to spray the ball than just all pull.  Plus Wallner is cheaper and maybe a few cheaper players Julien, etc would move the needle with a club like Pittsburg to bring back some pitching.  

[Doctor Gast]

46 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

This is about Rodriguez so I assume your comments of Keirsey is your concern that the Twins will not give Rodriguez a shot since they not give Keirsey a shot.

Keirsey up a wRC+ of 119 in his second stint in AAA. He put up a wRC+ of 123 in his second stint in AA. That isn’t encouraging and suggest he will struggle to hit at the major league level. It does not suggest major league readiness with the bat. The numbers and improvement from his first stints do offer some hope that he will take a step towards 130-150 given enough time.

Rodriguez in his first stint in AA had a wRC+ of 203 which followed seasons of 145 and 196 in A+ and A. That is a whole different world of minor league performance.

You are right that this article is about Emma. But it also mentioned Larnach & how he's linked to Emma but Keirsey is even more linked to Emma, being a LHH CFer. I'm not worried about Emma getting a fair shot but since Keirsey is directly linked to Emma as a place holder I'm concerned that Keirsey would have enough time to be properly evaluated. We all know he's a quality CF (IMO the system's 2nd best CF behind Buxton) & that he can eventually hit MLB but we don't know how fast & most likely will have some struggles. Talking about trading Emma & or Larnach, Keirsey is the key that have been ignored in this equation.

[gman]

I suspect that Buxton won't start one hundred games in center. Assuming he is healthy at the start of the year, Emma will be at ST Paul for April and May at least probably. He only got 30 plate appearances there this year and struck out  12 times.

[bean5302]

It'd be shocking to me if the Twins traded Larnach this offseason unless it was in a package deal to acquire a different outfielder who could also cover center field. Larnach has a very low ceiling and he's already entering arbitration so he's not bringing back any top 100 style prospects. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lot like Edouard Julien at the plate with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts. Projecting that type of approach is difficult, and a lot will hinge on how well Rodriguez can cover the plate. Julien struggles to drive balls located over a lot of the plate area, and MLB pitchers will attack weak points much more effectively than MiLB pitchers can. I'd expect Rodriguez to get the call by mid-season if he's playing really well at AAA, but I can't see him getting a job out of Spring Training.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lot like Edouard Julien at the plate with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts.

While I totally agree that Emmanuel Rodriguez has a fair number of warts, specifically staying on the field and his high strikeout rates, there is very little resemblance between Julien and EmRod other than that both have a good eye at the plate. Emmanuel punishes the ball in a way Julien never has. One has fair speed and the other has good speed. One struggles to find a position defensively, while the other has a terrific arm and is a plus defender. Julien is an infielder, Rodriguez is an outfielder. While I'm aware that Emmanuel needs to prove his place to claim a position with the Twins and an improved focus concerning swing decisions should help, there isn't a reason to compare one guy with high K-rates to another when their talent levels and potential are so different.

[mrcharlie]

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

I would rather trade Wallner, who is a 3 outcome type of player. Larnach at least shows signs of being able to spray the ball than just all pull.  Plus Wallner is cheaper and maybe a few cheaper players Julien, etc would move the needle with a club like Pittsburg to bring back some pitching.  

The idea of Pittsburgh as a trade partner was my thought also.  They have some pitching and I think they may be interested in some of our power bats.  Twins minor league system is well stocked and ranks highly among all MLB.  It's time to see that talent create results by promoting or trading.

[thelanges5]

So many lefties. Twins still need to fill the righty masher void created when Cruz was traded. 

[TwinsDr2021]

In my perfect world they put EROD in one of the starting outfield spots and give him the year. Similar to what the Yanks did with Volpe, what the Padres did with Merrill, what the Brewers did with Chourio, or what the Rangers did with Langford.  But it is more likely a situation like Corbin Carroll, where they give him some time to get hot in AA, move him up to AAA and the Twins towards the end of the year, not a horrible way to do it, he would still be 22 when he makes the Twins.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, beckmt said:

I would rather trade Wallner, who is a 3 outcome type of player. Larnach at least shows signs of being able to spray the ball than just all pull.  Plus Wallner is cheaper and maybe a few cheaper players Julien, etc would move the needle with a club like Pittsburg to bring back some pitching.  

I'm baffled that people would be jumping on selling off Wallner who has been one of the Twins best players the last two seasons. Despite the bad start he finished the season with a 149 OPS+ and was one of the only LH bats we had that could be counted on to consistently punish RHP. He's been an excellent corner OF, and i can't support the idea of trading him because people don't like the style.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

In my perfect world they put EROD in one of the starting outfield spots and give him the year. Similar to what the Yanks did with Volpe, what the Padres did with Merrill, what the Brewers did with Chourio, or what the Rangers did with Langford.  But it is more likely a situation like Corbin Carroll, where they give him some time to get hot in AA, move him up to AAA and the Twins towards the end of the year, not a horrible way to do it, he would still be 22 when he makes the Twins.

I'm with you on the first part. Give him an opening day job and let him learn how to be a major leaguer. If they move him backwards to AA to start the year and he doesn't debut until the end of 2025 it's time to write him off as a star. While I disagree with the extremes of your age based stances, the speed with which guys blow through the minors matters. He's already reached the upper minors. Injuries have slowed him, but there's nothing left there. He'll have his struggles, like the guys you mentioned did, but if he's the guy we all hope he is he'll adjust and adapt and he'll have a chance to be a Merrill or Chourio style star when it comes to playoff time.

But I think you have Carroll separated when you shouldn't, other than him getting his September call up. He went from AA to AAA as a 21 year old and debuted at the end of that year. He'd spent the previous year in A+ ball for 7 games, but basically missed the year injured.  Emma basically went through that stretch this year. He just missed the September call up Corbin got to get his feet wet because he missed so much of this year with an injury. The Corbin Carroll path really is the one he has been on outside of missing the September call up due to missing so much time and still being hurt at the end of the year.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This article gets me excited about he potential future of the team.  I really hope ERod comes through and becomes the kind of excellent hitter he has been in the minors.  Our track record lately has been a little spotty.  If he's hot in spring training, I say keep him in the lineup somehow -- you can always move Larnach, et al to DH to make it work.  If he isn't awesome in the spring, send him to AAA.  I think the important part is that the team does what is best of HIS development so that he can become the star that we are all hoping he becomes.  I don't want to stall his development by keeping at St. Paul, but I don't want to rush him to the majors before he's ready.  The timetable is for him in the long term, not for a little instant gratification for the Twins and fans.

[KBJ1]

Agree on Emma's talent and trajectory. 

There will be ups and downs early on, so starting at AAA does make sense. Unless he just mashes at Spring Training and forces their hand. 

Martin & Kiriloff were Hugh disappointments for me last year. I'm ready to be disappointed by Keirsey this year as well and would rather see Helman actually.  

It would be nice to pry some pitching away from Pittsburgh,  but I wouldn't include Emma. Even a stud young pitcher only plays once a week, a stud OF plays every day.

[Mike Sixel]

Put him in left field day one and leave him there. Move Larnach to first and DH. 

He subs in center when Buxton isn't playing. 

[Blyleven2011]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You are right that this article is about Emma. But it also mentioned Larnach & how he's linked to Emma but Keirsey is even more linked to Emma, being a LHH CFer. I'm not worried about Emma getting a fair shot but since Keirsey is directly linked to Emma as a place holder I'm concerned that Keirsey would have enough time to be properly evaluated. We all know he's a quality CF (IMO the system's 2nd best CF behind Buxton) & that he can eventually hit MLB but we don't know how fast & most likely will have some struggles. Talking about trading Emma & or Larnach, Keirsey is the key that have been ignored in this equation.

I'm not sure why everyone can't see a future for keirsey  Jr  and are down on him ( because hes older , been in minors to long ???? ), he may not be a superstar  but has talent  , what most people don't know is he was drafted , started his professional career and injuries kept setting him back on development  , but he has been  healthy the past 2 to 3 years and each year he has made the strides as a hitter to move up all the way to AAA  , in my opinion if any player this past season deserved and really earned a selection to the big leagues,  it was Keirsey Jr   ...

Give the kid a chance and I'm sure fans would be pleased with the results of Keirsey Jr  ...

Is the FO savvy enough to evaluate a players talent , remember  when we needed a second basemen  , they were going to call up Gordon and he got hurt , arraez got the call instead ,  they had no intention to call up arraez because he wasn't a prospect  , he got his chance and proved the evaluators  all wrong  ...

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, arby58 said:

I'm not sure I would label Larnach's 2024 performance as a 'strong season.' It was certainly better than prior years, but he strikes me as a fourth outfielder/DH type - he's not fleet of foot or a particularly good defensive outfielder. That said, he was better offensively than Kepler and I do think it's time to part company with Max. If that is the case, the Twins are a bit thin in terms of outfield depath, so I doubt Larnach is trade bait in the near future, as Rodriguez, for all his obvious talent, has to show an ability to hit big league pitching and stay healthy. 

I think it nearly impossible for the Twins to trade Rodriguez - the fan mutiny would be enormous, and the Twins likely would regret it for years to come.

I think the Larnach comp is to the rest of his seasons. Doubt he has much trade value.  As far as Max goes, I'm sure he's gone.  Less sure we won't regret it.

[arby58]

22 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Assuming Carlos Santana is not back (due to self-imposed payroll limitations) and they still have enough confidence in Julien to roll with him at the start of the season, there's really only 1-2 spots for position players available. One would have to be for a backup CF; would the Twins be ready to roll with Emma in that spot, or will they prefer to have someone with more defensive chops?

No way they are going to burn a year (both of development and control) to have Emma as a fourth outfielder. If/when he comes up, he's going to play every day. Granted, Buxton's health is always an issue, and there is also the DH spot - but I also doubt they want to turn a 21 year old into a regular DHer.

[arby58]

21 hours ago, beckmt said:

I would rather trade Wallner, who is a 3 outcome type of player. Larnach at least shows signs of being able to spray the ball than just all pull.  Plus Wallner is cheaper and maybe a few cheaper players Julien, etc would move the needle with a club like Pittsburg to bring back some pitching.  

Larnach has had 958 career AB and produced a 3.2 cumulative WAR with 35 HR and an OPS of .726. Wallner has about half as many ABs (490), has produced a 4.2 WAR with 29 HR and an OPS of .866. Wallner is also a better outfielder and runner. Yes, he strikes out a lot, but he also crushes the ball when he makes contact. I'll take that over a spray hitter, especially considering the other factors.

[TopGunn#22]

Good article and lots of interesting comments.  My 2-cents:

E-Rod is very talented and certainly seems to be on the fast track.  If not for the injuries, he might have been a full time player this past season.  There are some "slight" similarities to Julien.  My worry for E-Rod is that he will end up taking called 3rd strikes at an alarming rate much like Julien.  But I agree that in terms of sheer talent, Julien can't hold a candle to E-Rod.

A similar situation is unfolding for the Yankees and Jasson Dominguez.  He is also uber-talented, has battled numerous minor league injuries and I'm betting he's the Yankees starting CF right out of the gate in 2025.  And he's 21 years old.  Even if the Yanks re-sign Soto, I think he's moved to LF and Judge slides back to RF.  Aaron Boone's failure to get Dominguez in the lineup in place of Alex Verdugo in the World series will probably cost him his job this off season.  

There is no denying we have an absolute glut of LH hitting OF's.  Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, E-Rod, Jenkins, and even Kiersey (he HAS to be included because his defense and baserunning alone would have translated to more wins than Margot in 2024).  Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff are each limited to a corner OF spot.  If the Twins really believe in the talent of E-Rod and Jenkins, no matter what the timeline for them, something has to give.  Either Larnach or Wallner should probably be moved.  Getting a 1B, RH hitting OF, C (or catching prospect close to a major league promotion) a #3 or #4 type SP...any of these positions is worth giving up Larnach or Wallner.

To me, Larnach will never be more tradable than NOW.  Kirilloff has no value and is very below average as an OF.  1B is where he will play or he won't play.  I'd HATE to give up Wallner.  But what could he actually bring back?  I'd test the waters.  Ultimately, you can't play Jenkins, E-Rod, Wallner and Larnach at the same time.  Especially if you still have Buxton and Kirilloff.

There's a part of me that says if Buxton would waive his no-trade to a contender and you also deal Larnach, depending on what RH hitting OF you bring back in those trades or other trades,  I could see an OF of Wallner, E-Rod and a mystery RH hitting OF with Kiersey as my 4th OF in 2025. 

Then, in 2026 when the expected debut of Walker Jenkins happens you'd have to live with the ups and downs of a pretty young OF.  But you'd have Correa, Lewis, Lee in the INF and a pretty affordable roster with the exception of the pitching staff as Lopez, Ryan, Ober and maybe a mystery 4th SP acquired in a trade age into higher contracts as well as Duran and Jax.  

And maybe by that time, Ober or Ryan have been traded away to make room for Festa, Matthews, Morris etc...There is ALWAYS churn for baseball teams.  The Twins have a roster that is out of balance.  Some bold moves need to be made, whether it's by Falvey in the final season of Pohlad ownership, or by a new GM and FO with the new ownership.  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

No way they are going to burn a year (both of development and control) to have Emma as a fourth outfielder. If/when he comes up, he's going to play every day. Granted, Buxton's health is always an issue, and there is also the DH spot - but I also doubt they want to turn a 21 year old into a regular DHer.

Agree that when EmRod gets the call he plays. We don't have to worry about him being used as a DH because he would immediately become the Twins best defensive outfielder.