Tin Foil Hat: What If the Pohlads Don’t Actually Intend to Sell the Twins?

[Matthew Lenz]

With one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, could the 2024 Detroit Tigers be a blueprint for future versions of the Minnesota Twins? Could exploring a sale of the team just be a ploy until the next wave of prospects are ready? Get your tin foil hats on and let’s dive in!

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Recently, I reviewed the 2024 Detroit Tigers and noticed that they have just three players who are under guaranteed contracts heading in 2025. Despite a total payroll south of $100 million, the Tigers came within one game of the American League Championship Series – a series the Twins haven’t experienced since 2004. In fact, the 2024 Tigers share some pretty stark similarities with what the 2026 version of the Twins might look like:

• Both organizations have multi-year commitments to shortstops who are at least 30 years old.
• Both organizations have a starting pitcher under a sizable contract.
• Both organizations have very good farm systems with prospects who are big league-ready.

This is why I think this year's Tigers could provide a blueprint for the roster construction of a future Twins teams. As of right now, the 2026 Twins have roughly $70 million guaranteed to Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Pablo López, while the rest of the roster could be composed of pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players – just like the 2024 Tigers. Self-imposed payroll restrictions aside, this isn’t an outlandish strategy, as we hope that Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews are mainstays by 2026 and current top prospects like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall are ready to contribute. So where does the news that the Pohlads are exploring a sale of the team fall into this? Got your tin foil hat ready

For this exercise, let’s liken buying a Major League Baseball organization to buying a house. When you’re ready to put your house on the market, are you going to invest heavily into it? Unless your investment gives you a large return, say finishing the basement, it’s very unlikely. Remember when you thought it was a good idea to convert the garage into a bedroom? Well maybe undoing that will add some value back into the house. I mean, Minnesotans like their garages for winter. And to buyers with money to spend, what’s more attractive than a selling point like: “Sure, it needs some TLC, but that means YOU get to customize the house to your liking!”

Prior to the Pohlads' big announcement, it was already widely assumed that the Twins' 2025 payroll would remain pretty similar to the 2024 payroll. While we weren’t anticipating another reduction in payroll, we also weren’t expecting the Twins to “finish their basement” in free agency, and any increase in payroll would come naturally, from arbitration-eligible players. Now that the Twins are allegedly for sale, it’s all but a lock that there will be no significant investment into the team this offseason. Moreover, while it’s all speculation at this point, our very own Cody Christie suggested "turning the bedroom back into a garage" by trading Pablo López to clean up the books. Not only would this make the organization look more valuable from a dollars perspective, but it would provide a new owner the opportunity to customize the team to their liking. While it would be hard to blame the Pohlads for standing pat and selling López, what if that’s just a ploy to make it to 2026?

What if the Pohlads have little intention of selling, unless they’re swept off their feet? But instead, they have the positive PR from last week's announcement, which gives them a built-in and viable excuse for not investing in the team again this offseason. It also gives them an out if they do decide to trade an “expensive” player. What if they can just wait it out until 2026, when they have only $70 million committed to the payroll, or less if they “fix their garage,” and they can get away with a payroll around $130 million under the guise of promising, young talent?

If I'm being honest, those are dots that are a little too easy to connect, even without my tin foil hat on. It wouldn't be good news, per se, and it's a needle they'd be trying to thread--after all, arbitration will make Lewis and company more expensive between now and then, even if they do stick around. But it wouldn't be the first potential team sale recently to turn out to be a slight head fake, and it would buy the maligned owners some time. Maybe the Pohlad family is rich enough even to buy that precious commodity.

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[Brandon27]

If they don't sell the team the fan attendance is going to drop just like the white sox

[DJL44]

They're intending to sell the team. Someone else mentioned that a depreciation tax break for new team owners is going away after 2026. Due to changes in TV broadcasting and fan demographics, MLB Revenue looks flat for the foreseeable future. The asset is no longer appreciating and it's time to sell.

[Karbo]

I don't know how you can compare selling a house to selling a MLB franchise. There are lots of houses to chose from but at this time it looks to be 1 franchise for sale. While I agree that the Pohlads aren't going to invest more into the team, they surely don't want it tank, lowering attendance even more, and making it less desirable to potential buyers.

[Brett]

I’m not sure operating margin on an annual basis has as much to do as asset appreciation over the last 40 years. A $44M investment in 1984 growing to a $1.5B valuation now shows how crazy the market is for sports teams. That’s a raw 3400% increase over 4 decades without considering other investments (e.g scoreboard) the Pohlads have made along the way. I need to think about this a little more, but I’m pretty sure making sure they get x% return off of y revenue is not a major consideration for the overall purchase price of the team. And, if that’s actually true, stripping salary from the roster and accepting performance decline might actually make the team less valuable.

Sorry, that’s a lot. I’ll go back to work now.

[bean5302]

The Tigers were awful for 10 years. I don't think that's a good blueprint for anybody.

[bean5302]

The Pohlad Family may or may not find a buyer for the Twins. Completely blowing the product up in the hopes that's what a new owner might want is seemingly a lot of risk for an ownership group known far and wide as risk averse. Keeping things relatively status quo is nice and conservative given the lack of identity or obvious direction for the club's roster. According to some sort of inside source, Dan Hayes reported the Twins' front office doesn't expect any reduction in payroll. Any money saved by trading a player or players would result in an expected reinvestment into the roster.

Barring a new leak suggesting the opposite, the conspiracy theory stuff doesn't interest me much.
 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

59 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They're intending to sell the team. Someone else mentioned that a depreciation tax break for new team owners is going away after 2026. Due to changes in TV broadcasting and fan demographics, MLB Revenue looks flat for the foreseeable future. The asset is no longer appreciating and it's time to sell.

I saw another article out there that claimed a reason for selling the team was internal family strife amongst the the Pohlads.

Just too much smoke here for there not to be truth.  The team may ultimately not sell for a while, but it won't be for lack of trying. 

[TFRazor]

They can't change their minds, we said no take backs.

In all seriousness, if they did an about face now, they might actually get run out of town on a rail.

[Gamblerssoftball]

Does anyone know if there's an actual person or group with an interest in buying the team. This may be just speculation, but I'm sure the current owners have someone in mind already that they are courting. Otherwise, a deal will be a long way off.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Two thoughts. First, if there is a major trading of assets for prospects it is much more likely that is being done at the behest of a certain buyer group who want to see that happen without taking the PR hit. I don't think that the sell off would improve value so I don't see it happening unless that's what a new buyer wants. Inertia is more likely. 

Second, I think they have something(s) already in process. I think they know that the sale is likely to happen either to one or maybe multiple bidders and they announced it to see if there is any other interest out there and to leverage suitors.  I expect a relatively quick process. 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I saw another article out there that claimed a reason for selling the team was internal family strife amongst the the Pohlads.

Just too much smoke here for there not to be truth.  The team may ultimately not sell for a while, but it won't be for lack of trying. 

This makes a lot of sense to me. Moving a family business through multiple generations is incredibly hard to do and usually breaks down over time. Boars Head is a great example. The problem is that there may be internal agreement on what to do amongst an older generation and then you have some people in subsequent generations who have different viewpoints. Here, I could easily see that some of the family wants to treat the team as a business and maximize profit, while some see it more as a hobby and value winning over profit, and some don't care about the business and may want to cash out their their share. The only way to solve that is to either have one person or a small group buy out everyone else's shares or to sell the asset. 

[Linus]

I fully believe the Pohlads intend to sell. However I also believe they will not accept an offer they don’t deem to be to their liking. So yea I won’t be surprised if they don’t sell. 

[Parfigliano]

52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This makes a lot of sense to me. Moving a family business through multiple generations is incredibly hard to do and usually breaks down over time. Boars Head is a great example. The problem is that there may be internal agreement on what to do amongst an older generation and then you have some people in subsequent generations who have different viewpoints. Here, I could easily see that some of the family wants to treat the team as a business and maximize profit, while some see it more as a hobby and value winning over profit, and some don't care about the business and may want to cash out their their share. The only way to solve that is to either have one person or a small group buy out everyone else's shares or to sell the asset. 

Isn't Boars Head the deli meat company that killed 10 people via listeria tainted product.

[Craig Arko]

In order to sell, somebody needs to buy. If the right offer comes along, the sale will be made.

[Patzky]

Someone buys the Twins maybe Reinsdorf will throw in some Sox.

[CRF]

I do think that they're going to try and sell the team, but trying to find a buyer and actually selling is another story. 

[mikelink45]

All I can say is that they found a way to keep the Twins in the news without spending a dime.

[darin617]

8 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

If they don't sell the team the fan attendance is going to drop just like the white sox

It's all about winning. Are you telling me if the Twins are leading the Central people won't show up???  SMH

[dxpavelka]

As I said the moment they announce they would "explore" selling the team, there is a big gap between "exploring" a sale and making a sale.  And sadly for the average Twins fan, there could likely be an even bigger gap between selling the team and selling the team to someone who operates it in a manner the average Twins fan would approve of.

[Loops]

Being the pessimistic Minnesotan that I am, I actually am concerned. The Pohlad's may be bad and not want to invest in the Twins, but who's to say new ownership will be better. Worst case ... they move! Look at the North Stars. Be careful what you wish for.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Isn't Boars Head the deli meat company that killed 10 people via listeria tainted product.

Yup!

[nclahammer]

I'll believe the Pohlads are selling once they're actually sold (see Glen Taylor and Minnesota Timberwolves.)

[Chachi]

Is it possible the Pohlads secured the new broadcast/streaming deal in a way that pays them regardless of whether they own the team or sell it?

I need more tin foil.

[laloesch]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Pohlad Family may or may not find a buyer for the Twins. Completely blowing the product up in the hopes that's what a new owner might want is seemingly a lot of risk for an ownership group known far and wide as risk averse. Keeping things relatively status quo is nice and conservative given the lack of identity or obvious direction for the club's roster. According to some sort of inside source, Dan Hayes reported the Twins' front office doesn't expect any reduction in payroll. Any money saved by trading a player or players would result in an expected reinvestment into the roster.

Barring a new leak suggesting the opposite, the conspiracy theory stuff doesn't interest me much.
 

Oh there's obvious direction for the club roster, his contract signed in 2023 is 200 million and six years followed by a certain CF who also signed a contract in 2021 for seven years for 100 million.  Neither player has played up to full expectations, stayed healthy, and frankly started in as many games as they should.   That is the simple reality and it's punishing the franchise. 

That said, I fully expect the Twins to further cut payroll this winter and unload as many salaries as they can before they sell the team.  Dramatically dropping the payroll, and only keeping the arbitration or pre-arbitration eligible players opens the door to more buyers, who won't have to deal with 100 / 200 million dollar contracts upon immediately buying a team and spending 1.5-2 billion dollars on a franchise that just lost it's television contract and is now being offered a temporary crutch by Major League baseball in the meantime.  The Pohlads have to dramatically slash payroll to get this done, it's coming.

I would not be surprised at all if both Buxton and Correa are approached this offseason about waiving their no trade clauses.  One thing is for certain Lopez will be dealt, along with Margot, Vazquez, Paddack, Farmer, and possibly others with the Twins eating sizeable chunks of their contracts to just get rid of them.  This will be done to leverage the team's finances in a sale. 

The Pohlads aren't stupid, they know this. As we all know through the years despite their happy talk statements about the team it's just a business to them and JOe Pohlad never was in charge, he was just given a responsibility in one of the family businesses.  They've been thinking about selling for over a year now and the failed tv contracts with Diamond sports was the final blow and why they are getting out.  I expect them to cut payroll sub 100 by next spring if a sale hasn't gone through.  They already cut 30 million which is  A LOT. 

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Brett said:

I’m not sure operating margin on an annual basis has as much to do as asset appreciation over the last 40 years. A $44M investment in 1984 growing to a $1.5B valuation now shows how crazy the market is for sports teams. That’s a raw 3400% increase over 4 decades without considering other investments (e.g scoreboard) the Pohlads have made along the way. I need to think about this a little more, but I’m pretty sure making sure they get x% return off of y revenue is not a major consideration for the overall purchase price of the team. And, if that’s actually true, stripping salary from the roster and accepting performance decline might actually make the team less valuable.

Sorry, that’s a lot. I’ll go back to work now.

Exactly, shedding a guy like Lopez (big contributor) to “get the books to look better” is voodoo thinking. Any buyer or interested party in passing, knows what the Twins are spending on and what the results have been. The revenue streams are obvious - the assets - the perceived value of the assets may vary but moving the salary if one in the short-term isn’t changing the sale value of the club………trading Correa may reduce value or at least create that argument from a buyer’s perspective. Shedding salary isn’t going to help increase sale value of a held asset for 40 years. Not fooling anyone nor increasing interest if payroll is $115M v. $155M.

[LambchoP]

Thing is, if they do trade away all our highly paid players, nobody is going to watch or come to the games just to watch a bunch of minor league players get blown out every day which hurts the teams value. I think they're going to try to find a middle ground with getting payroll down as much as possible, without blowing up the team completely and hurting the overall value and allure of buying the team.

[JD-TWINS]

49 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Oh there's obvious direction for the club roster, his contract signed in 2023 is 200 million and six years followed by a certain CF who also signed a contract in 2021 for seven years for 100 million.  Neither player has played up to full expectations, stayed healthy, and frankly started in as many games as they should.   That is the simple reality and it's punishing the franchise. 

That said, I fully expect the Twins to further cut payroll this winter and unload as many salaries as they can before they sell the team.  Dramatically dropping the payroll, and only keeping the arbitration or pre-arbitration eligible players opens the door to more buyers, who won't have to deal with 100 / 200 million dollar contracts upon immediately buying a team and spending 1.5-2 billion dollars on a franchise that just lost it's television contract and is now being offered a temporary crutch by Major League baseball in the meantime.  The Pohlads have to dramatically slash payroll to get this done, it's coming.

I would not be surprised at all if both Buxton and Correa are approached this offseason about waiving their no trade clauses.  One thing is for certain Lopez will be dealt, along with Margot, Vazquez, Paddack, Farmer, and possibly others with the Twins eating sizeable chunks of their contracts to just get rid of them.  This will be done to leverage the team's finances in a sale. 

The Pohlads aren't stupid, they know this. As we all know through the years despite their happy talk statements about the team it's just a business to them and JOe Pohlad never was in charge, he was just given a responsibility in one of the family businesses.  They've been thinking about selling for over a year now and the failed tv contracts with Diamond sports was the final blow and why they are getting out.  I expect them to cut payroll sub 100 by next spring if a sale hasn't gone through.  They already cut 30 million which is  A LOT. 

Short term cuts that will cut into the viability of the Team’s competitiveness is not a carrot for a buyer.

The Team has appreciated over 40 years and the payroll for ‘25 and the $$ to be paid out to players, whether it be $100M or $150M, has no bearing on what a buyer group would be willing to pay.

Santana - Farmer - Kepler - Margot are all gone as free agents.

Paddack may be dangled to evade his health risk, combined with $7.5M salary. Tough to get value back but maybe that’s not the goal.

Vazquez has a contract that is impossible to trade without carrying a bunch of the $$ or adding other prospect value from the Twins …..for essentially zero return. Not happening.

Buxton - Correa - Lopez are the attractive assets for a buyer wanting to take over with marketable star power.

Companies buy assets and then strip the staff to make money in short-term. The Twins ownership doing a strip, months after they said they were selling, would be an obvious and desperate move that would only devalue the asset they are trying to sell

[Doctor Gast]

18 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I saw another article out there that claimed a reason for selling the team was internal family strife amongst the the Pohlads.

Just too much smoke here for there not to be truth.  The team may ultimately not sell for a while, but it won't be for lack of trying. 

It makes a lot of sense. I can't see any of them really wanting to keep the Twins & a lot of them would want the mula. Especially now that they let the cat out of the bag, you can't really get it back in. 

I have a question for my brothers. If the Pohlads sell the team quickly can the new owners negate the Falvey deal? & undo some of the stuff they have done?

IMO selling a house has nothing to do with selling a pro-team. In every transaction I know of, they always try to limit & in most cases cut costs to make the deal more reasonable. Besides if the Pohlads backed out now they'd be tarred & feathered.

[nicksaviking]

19 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I saw another article out there that claimed a reason for selling the team was internal family strife amongst the the Pohlads.

Just too much smoke here for there not to be truth.  The team may ultimately not sell for a while, but it won't be for lack of trying. 

Right. The Pohlad they put in charge was the one who's career accomplishments amounted to the utter failure of two different radio stations. 

To me that would indicate that Jim Pohlad and the rest of the clan had no interest in doing this anymore. Just let the kid drive the Ferrari before we sell it. The parts are worth more than the whole so it's not a big deal if he crashes it.