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On Aug. 5, FanGraphs had the Detroit Tigers at a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs; they were an underwhelming 53-60. From then through Sept. 27, the day they clinched the third American League Wild Card spot, the Tigers went 33-12. They finished the season with an 86-76 record.
Let’s review how the unlikely season unfolded for the Tigers, and what they’ll be up to this offseason.
2024 Season Review
The Tigers' calling card in the 2024 season was their pitching staff, headlined by a starting rotation that finished in the top 10 of teams in ERA, FIP, and K-BB% among a myriad of other categories. Their bullpen wasn’t quite as effective, but still ranked in the top half in a lot of the same categories composed of relievers who were largely deemed as less than desirable by Major League baseball. The back end of the bullpen was built with Jason Foley (2016 UDFA), Tyler Holton (waivers), Will Vest (returned Rule 5 pick), Shelby Miller (free agent), and Beau Brieske (2019 27th-round pick). That list doesn’t even include Sean Guenther, who was another waiver claim in 2022 from the Miami Marlins, or 2021 7th-round pick Brant Hurter.
In short, the Tigers got a ton of value from a position that can be quite volatile and often seen as a risky investment. Looking at the starting rotation, they got career years from young starters Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson, who were 9th- and 13th-round picks, respectively. What might be most impressive is that they sold their best starter, Jack Flaherty, ahead of the trade deadline, but rookie Keider Montero filled in nicely, with a 3.33 ERA over 10 starts in August and September.
Offensively, they were one of the youngest teams in baseball, with utility player Andy Ibáñez the only contributor north of 30 years old. 2019 1st-round pick Riley Greene led the way with an .827 OPS and 24 home runs. Matt Vierling, acquired in a trade last January, and Kerry Carpenter, a 2019 19th-round pick, were two more young contributors to an offense that finished in the bottom third in baseball in various categories. Where the youngsters lacked in hitting, they made up for in fielding, ranking 6th in Outs Above Average (23), led by center fielder Parker Meadows, their 2018 2nd-round pick.
If there is one thing to take away, it’s that the Tigers did a phenomenal job developing and identifying talent to build the 2024 version of their club. So, let’s look at where they go from here.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As would be expected from such a young team, the Tigers have a large number of pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players to make decisions on this winter. In fact, Javier Báez, Colt Keith, and Kenta Maeda are the only Tigers under guaranteed contracts for the 2025 season. In 2024, their payroll was 26th in baseball, sitting just under $100 million, which is about a 24% decrease from their average payroll for the previous two seasons.
Given their payroll flexibility and the solid core that led to a playoff run, I’d expect the Tigers to be pretty active in this offseason’s free agency period. And based on this quote from Scott Harris, the President of Baseball Operations, the Tigers will be willing to spend if the talent is there.
In the same presser, Harris identified the need to add a right-handed bat to an offense that finished with a 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, as well as add to the starting rotation and bullpen. As MLBTR points out, this free agent class fits the Tigers’ needs very well, with big names like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell headlining. One thing that could impact the bottom line is if the Tigers and some of their team-controlled players can come to an agreement to buy out arbitration years.
Earlier this season, the Tigers and then top prospect Colt Keith agreed to a six-year, $28.6-million deal before he had even reached the big leagues. Any one of their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players could follow suit and, given the precedent set with Keith, they could even look to lock up top prospects Jackson Jobe or Jace Jung. Those are just two names from a farm system that is ranked in the top 10 in baseball by multiple sources, although many of their other top names aren’t projected to contribute for another couple of years. Obviously, securing more years of Skubal's services would be wonderful, but he's about to win the AL Cy Young Award. Such an extension would be very expensive.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from next year’s Detroit Tigers. Will they be the team that was seven games under .500 for the first four months of the season, or are they the team from the last two months--the one that finished with the second-most wins in baseball over that span? The answer is likely somewhere in between, and if I’m a Tigers fan, I am cautiously optimistic about 2025, while keeping in mind that player development is rarely linear. That said, supplementing the young core with productive veterans would go a long way in helping that development continue to improve. One way or another, the Twins can no longer hone in on the Guardians as their lone competition for the division. The Tigers (and Royals) are here to stay.
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- Patzky, Schmoeman5 and DannySD
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