Twins Could Be Prime Suitors as James Paxton Trade Rumors Swirl

[Theodore Tollefson]

Another starting pitcher has entered the trade market--this time, from a contender hoping to clear space for a big splash of their own and a pair of returning stars. James Paxton is available for any team that wants him. Does he fit what the Twins need for a stable rotation down the stretch?

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers made surprising news Monday afternoon, designating left-handed starter James Paxton for assignment following their move to activate Clayton Kershaw from the 60-day injured list. Paxton had just made the start for the Dodgers Sunday night against the Boston Red Sox. He threw five innings, and allowed three runs on four walks and four hits, including a homer, but he struck out seven batters on 95 pitches to keep the Dodgers in the game.

The Dodgers have been rumored by many national baseball writers to be in the market for additional starting pitching depth this trade deadline. While Paxton provides some depth, they’re going all-in on their confidence to land a more dependable arm than the 35-year-old Canadian has been for them this season, while creating space for both Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow in their rotation. 

None of that is to say that Paxton has been terrible for the Dodgers all year. He’s made 18 starts, pitched a total of 89 ⅓ innings, posted a 4.43 ERA, and lowered his home run to fly ball ratio by nearly half from what it was in 2023, going from 17.8% to 9.5%. But the greatest weakness for Paxton this season has been his control. At the time of his DFA, he leads all National League starters with 48 walks. 

A lot of the walks are coming off his four-seamer, which has lacked command in the strike zone this season. Per Baseball Savant, he’s only favored throwing it in the upper half of the strike zone, and it frequently lands either right in hitters' wheelhouses or outside the zone. He’s struck out batters 30 times with the pitch, but it’s only coming with a 14.6% whiff rate. 

Partially balancing out the poor location and diminished effectiveness of his fastball is his knuckle-curve, which he’s thrown the second-most this year. Opposing hitters only have a .205 batting average (17-for-83) and .251 wOBA in plate appearances that end on that curve, and have struck out 24 times on the pitch, thanks to a much more efficient 35.4% whiff rate. 

Of his 18 starts this season, Paxton has only gone six or more innings six times and hasn’t thrown more than 97 pitches, which was in his first start of the season on Apr. 1. He’s still averaging 93.5 MPH on his fastball, though, which shows there’s middle- to back-of-the-rotation stuff left in him.

The case for Paxton as the best fit to buttress the Minnesota starting rotation before the trade deadline centers on what should be a low cost of acquisition, both financially and in terms of young talent. Paxton signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers this offseason, with $4 million on the base salary. However, it included a plethora of incentives: a $3 million signing bonus, a $2 million bonus for making the Opening Day roster (which he did), and various other bonuses ranging from $600,000 to $1 million, bringing the total amount he could earn to $13 million this year. After making his 18th start Sunday, he's assured himself of all that money.

With the incentives and bonuses already paid out by the Dodgers, the Twins would only have to pay Paxton around $1.5 million for the remainder of the season. The cost is much cheaper compared to other rental starters the Twins could pursue--such as Yusei Kikuchi, who is earning $12 million this year but will be eligible for a qualifying offer this fall. It’s also cheaper than the contract of Nathan Eovaldi, who is earning $17 million this season and has a $20 million player option in his contract for 2025.

The Twins have been on a budget this entire season, following the fallout from their TV deal with Diamond Sports, Bally’s parent company. It’s safe to say a player such as Paxton would be on their radar if they can get him for that fourth starter depth.

It’s likely that many teams (such as the Blue Jays and Rangers) are asking about Luke Keaschall if the Twins are inquiring about hurlers like Kikuchi or Eovaldi. Jumping the waiver wire to trade for Paxton would mean giving up a prospect, but it would surely be one with a much less bright future than Keaschall's.

Paxton may not be the ideal playoff dependable starter Twins fans are hoping the front office pursues this trade deadline, but he can provide stability in the rotation--more needed than ever, with Chris Paddack landing on the injured list again. His presence would also allow the team to be more cautious with minor-league arms such as David Festa, Louie Varland, and the recent Triple-A debutante, Zebby Matthews.

Simeon Woods Richardson, too, could benefit from Paxton’s addition. While he is the Twins' leading Rookie of the Year candidate and has exceeded expectations, the front office may still lighten his workload down the stretch to ensure that their suddenly rising star isn’t blowing his arm out before they need it most. He may not be the man he used to be during his prime days in Seattle, but Paxton could patch the hole left by Paddack, give the organization the freedom to protect Woods Richardson, and slot in nicely for a potential playoff Game 4, behind Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. 

Things will move quickly over the next week, with many trades and transactions. But the Twins could get out in front of one of their greatest needs this trade deadline without having to burn their wallets or salt the fields of their farm, by adding Paxton into their fourth rotation spot.

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sure that if Dodgers are looking to unload a player, Falvey would be the 1st he'd call. I hope they resist.

[Patzky]

Fedde.

[kroll]

Never happen.

[Brandon]

I just came to this site to post about getting Paxton, I think getting him is the smart choice as all three of Paxton, Woods-Richardson and Paddack can take turns getting rest as they get ready for the playoffs.  All three would be approaching the most innings they have pitched in the majors in the last 5 years or so.  They could swap one to the bullpen or piggyback and have each throw 3 or 4 innings in an appearance to limit innings.  I like the salary and the fact we wouldn't have to give up much to get him and we are in another league so LA won't care about sending him to us.  I am surprised we didn't have him before the DFA.

[ashbury]

Maybe the Dodgers would take Manuel Margot in exchange for Paxton.  Adding Noah Miller to the package would be a nice sweetener they could offer us.  😀

Usually a player in a price range the Twins can afford at the deadline would be someone not worth the money.  This is the rare exception that I would pursue.  However I wonder if the Twins FO has any payroll headroom at all, given that they already trimmed this past off-season and attendance now is not what they hoped.

I doubt Paxton is willing to take on bullpen duty though.  If he were, the Dodgers might be going that route with him in the first place.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Worth a call to see the price. A prospect outside the top 25 or so might be a worthwhile investment. I would much rather have Flaherty, Crochet, Fedde, Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi, but they may be out of our salary or prospect price range and are going to generate a lot of interest.

I like this roster and think they could be a real contender next year.  I wouldn't be willing to give a lot to get a starter for this year though. I particularly would not be willing to give up a top 10 or even top 20 prospect for a rental starting pitcher. I suspect that the good ones like Flaherty or Crochet are going to require multiple top 20 prospects, and the lesser types like Kikuchi at least one in the top 10 or top 15. Even Anderson or Fedde is going to cost at least one in the top 20 and maybe more. That's why it's worth calling on Paxton.  Same for Cal Quantrill. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’d be ok with this if he isn’t the only starter they acquire between now and next tuesday

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Maybe the Dodgers would take Manuel Margot in exchange for Paxton.  Adding Noah Miller to the package would be a nice sweetener they could offer us.  😀

See now THAT is clever.

[RaoulDuke]

They do love to trade for oft injured starters....

[JD-TWINS]

25 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Worth a call to see the price. A prospect outside the top 25 or so might be a worthwhile investment. I would much rather have Flaherty, Crochet, Fedde, Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi, but they may be out of our salary or prospect price range and are going to generate a lot of interest.

I like this roster and think they could be a real contender next year.  I wouldn't be willing to give a lot to get a starter for this year though. I particularly would not be willing to give up a top 10 or even top 20 prospect for a rental starting pitcher. I suspect that the good ones like Flaherty or Crochet are going to require multiple top 20 prospects, and the lesser types like Kikuchi at least one in the top 10 or top 15. Even Anderson or Fedde is going to cost at least one in the top 20 and maybe more. That's why it's worth calling on Paxton.  Same for Cal Quantrill. 

Pretty sure Flaherty is a rental as well.

I get some think it’s old school and doesn’t apply, but I don’t see the Twins trading to improve the White Sox nor the Tigers within their Division.

Paxton is a better option than Kuechel was last year. Yikes, 48 walks in 89 innings!

Tyler Anderson is worth some thought! I do think that there’s a hot Market for Anderson - Quantrill - Kikuchi………,

I’d feel much better working a deal for relief rental, Tanner Scott. Can piece 10 starts together over next 70 days between Varland - Festa - Matthews …..I think?

[Joe A. Preusser]

If all it takes is a prospect in the 25-30 range, I'd do it in a second.  

One small quibble with the OP.  If we do indeed protect SWR from getting run down for the rest of the regular season, hasn't he earned the right to the be our 4th starter in the playoffs?  Obviously if Paddock, or in this scenario Paxton show out strong you can re-evaluate, but at this point in time SWR is my game 4 starter.  He's more than earned it.

 

[CRF]

Please, please, please...set the sight higher than Paxton. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Paxton would be a regular season addition.  To get us to the playoffs in good shape.  I don't think he changes our top 3.5 playoff starters.

I'd be ok with that.  I'd love to be set up well when we clinch our playoff spot.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

Please, please, please...set the sight higher than Paxton. 

Paxton raises the floor. He's better than their worst pitcher and costs about 1% of their total budget for salary.

[DJL44]

Paxton is likely to pitch worse at Target Field than he did in Dodger Stadium. He's not anything special but he's better than putting Festa or Varland out there again.

[Hubie29]

4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, would fit right in with our other #4 and #5 starters. Haven't we learned our lesson yet??? re:  Paddack, DeSclafani, etc, etc.  Please don't waste your time. Either shoot for someone better or don't do anything at all. 

[darin617]

I would give LA a call 1.5M is cheap for the rest of the year. You would think they would be looking for a lottery ticket in return.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He is likely a better version of Dallas Keuchel.  Not likely to start a game in the playoffs, but could provide you with 50 innings down the stretch of reasonable pitching which would save/rest some other better arms.  For the price, which should be a prospect in the 30 to 40 range, he would be a useful get. 

[SotaSports in NM]

If we're exclusively looking for someone cheap outside the org to help, then sure, Paxton is cheap and easy to get after being DFA'd. But if we honestly want an innings eater, that is not Paxton right now. His last 6 starts have gone less than 5 innings while allowing exit velos of 90+. Not to mention low k's (very much so) and high walks Perhaps better than nothing to help spell our back-end starters, but certainly not by much when compared to internal options.

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d be ok with this if he isn’t the only starter they acquire between now and next tuesday

Just how big is this theoretical rotation of yours?

[2wins87]

I'd like to see a trade for someone who might have a shot of starting a playoff game. Doesn't have to be a slam dunk, but someone who has shown that level of talent in the recent past.

Paxton is a 5th starter (not a 4th starter - minor quibble, but still), but that's not even my main objection.  Paxton is now 35 and has a terrible injury history at this point.  2 Tommy Johns, and he's quickly closing in on the 96 inning mark that he pitched last year, which is his most in the past 5 seasons.  He was on the injured list 3 times last year getting to that mark.  Seems like an incredibly lousy bet to even be healthy enough to eat innings, and I think his last few outings show he's already starting to wear down.

He's been healthy so far this season, but do you really want to bet on that injury history with zero upside?

Put in a claim, sure, but I wouldn't want to give up even a prospect in the 25-40 range (e.g. Bohorquez, Bowen, or Nowlin) for Paxton.

[ashbury]

11 hours ago, SotaSports in NM said:

If we're exclusively looking for someone cheap outside the org to help, then sure, Paxton is cheap and easy to get after being DFA'd.

 

11 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Put in a claim, sure,

I want to clarify that Designated For Assignment is not the same as being on Waivers.  For a team to do the latter, the former needs to occur; but not vice versa.  Waivers take 3 days; this has to occur sometime within the 7-day DFA window.

DFA just lets the team remove the player from the 40-man roster, freeing space for someone else. What happens during those 7 days can vary, including a trade, or waivers in preparation for an outright assignment to the minors or unconditional release.

I haven't seen any reports that Paxton is on waivers as yet. We're not in a situation where we can just claim him.  The Dodgers surely are in "listen to trade offers" mode.  He might not be "cheap and easy to get" - our Twins could easily get outbid in this environment.

MLB themselves maintain a very good Glossary on all kinds of baseball terms, including a group of them that pertain to transactions:  https://www.mlb.com/glossary  .  I use it frequently to try to fact-check myself a little. (And I nevertheless mess up.)

[Markdumont25]

No offense to OP, since I understand the financial limitations the franchise has placed on itself, but these dumpster dive scenarios being presented are getting so exhausting.

Yea, he's cheap, but even as OP presented he doesn't seem all that helpful and/or likely to even be able to finish the season. Control issues and he's already basically reached his highest innings total in a half decade? Seems unlikely to pan out, even as a "innings eater", back of the rotation type.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Just how big is this theoretical rotation of yours?

I worry about injuries. I don’t know at all that Paddack will be back, so I could see a depth move (like Paxton) just in case. I just don’t see him as someone who id feel comfortable starting a playoff game, so I’d still want to pursue someone along those lines. 

[mickster]

11 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Worth a call to see the price. A prospect outside the top 25 or so might be a worthwhile investment. I would much rather have Flaherty, Crochet, Fedde, Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi, but they may be out of our salary or prospect price range and are going to generate a lot of interest.

I like this roster and think they could be a real contender next year.  I wouldn't be willing to give a lot to get a starter for this year though. I particularly would not be willing to give up a top 10 or even top 20 prospect for a rental starting pitcher. I suspect that the good ones like Flaherty or Crochet are going to require multiple top 20 prospects, and the lesser types like Kikuchi at least one in the top 10 or top 15. Even Anderson or Fedde is going to cost at least one in the top 20 and maybe more. That's why it's worth calling on Paxton.  Same for Cal Quantrill. 

This one makes sense.   A LH starter in the rotation.   A tandem of Paxton/Paddack to piggy back a game if needed.    Flaherty, Crochet and Fedde are in the division - so those are not going to happen.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Maybe the Dodgers would take Manuel Margot in exchange for Paxton.  Adding Noah Miller to the package would be a nice sweetener they could offer us.  😀

Usually a player in a price range the Twins can afford at the deadline would be someone not worth the money.  This is the rare exception that I would pursue.  However I wonder if the Twins FO has any payroll headroom at all, given that they already trimmed this past off-season and attendance now is not what they hoped.

I doubt Paxton is willing to take on bullpen duty though.  If he were, the Dodgers might be going that route with him in the first place.

Paxton is an expensive back-of-the-rotation piece that LAD doesn't want. IMO Varland is a better spot start/ long relief candidate because he's cheap, has proven himself in that role & IMO it's better to invest in our future as we are competing now.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Yikes, 48 walks in 89 innings!

That stat scares me more than a little. 

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm sure that if Dodgers are looking to unload a player, Falvey would be the 1st he'd call. I hope they resist.

Based on what? ONE trade? For Margot?  Or maybe the time they UNLOADED the 2020 Cy Young runner  on us?  Just curious?

[Whitey333]

I say no to Paxton as I don't think he adds much to the current staff.