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Posted

The Minnesota Twins turned to Bailey Ober needing to end a losing streak and give the bullpen a break. The starting pitcher turned in the first complete game of his career, and the lineup provided him with a double-digit scoring performance.

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober 9.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (89 pitches, 70 strikes, 23 whiffs)
Home Runs: Manuel Margot(2)
Top 3 WPA: Manuel Margot (.216), Ryan Jeffers (.116), Carlos Correa (.111)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
chart.png.9c56f9d1c596c85d9b4f79669d23a78a.png

Twins Come Out Crushing
Facing J.P. Sears, who the Twins tagged for four runs on nine hits and three home runs last week, Minnesota got off to a great start. Sears had runners on the corners before recording an out, and allowed the first run of the game on a hit by pitch against Ryan Jeffers that scored Manuel Margot. While the Twins did leave the bases loaded, and Bailey Ober gave up a J.J. Bleday solo shot in the bottom half to tie it, Rocco Baldelli’s lineup went right back to work.

Willi Castro opened the second inning with his 20th double of the season, and Kyle Farmer became the third Twins batter to get plunked. Leadoff man Margot stepped in for the second time and clobbered a three-run blast, his second of the season, to make it 4-1. The Twins weren’t done against Sears as Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis both immediately singled before Jose Miranda ripped a two-run double to make it 6-1

Carlos Santana finally flew out to give Sears an out, but Jeffers singled and Byron Buxton doubled to drive in another run and knock Sears out of the game. He allowed seven runs on nine hits while getting just four outs. Farmer blooped in a single to score Jeffers and the Twins had put up a seven-spot in the second inning. Across two outings in the last week, Minnesota had bludgeoned Sears for 12 runs on 18 hits in just 6 ⅔ innings.

Double Up for Runs
Sears being out of the game didn’t slow the Twins roll. Answering a Tyler Soderstrom home run in the second inning, Lewis and Miranda traded doubles and made it a 9-2 game in the third inning.

Ober got the Athletics quickly in the third inning, and the fourth inning saw Minnesota go down in order for the first time during the ballgame. A fifth inning single gave Miranda his third hit of the ballgame and pushed his OPS to .819 on the year, but Minnesota couldn’t cash in. Ober answered by sending Oakland back to the dugout in order and the sides had completed five innings.

Plunked Again
Margot stepped in to start the seventh inning against Osvaldo Bido and got plunked. He was the fourth Twins hitter to get hit on the day, and Minnesota made it hurt with Correa rapping his 14th double and driving Margot in. A 10-2 ballgame, the Twins certainly were widening the run differential on Saturday. Threatening to really blow things open, Santana walked to load the bases with one out for Jeffers, but the Minnesota catcher grounded into an inning-ending double play.

Ober was back out for the seventh inning, and struck out Brent Rooker who made it 15 straight games with that stat. Again getting Oakland in order, Ober was at just 68 pitches. A quick eighth inning for Minnesota brought Ober back on and he struck out the side to push his tally to nine on the day. The Twins put up an impressive 10 runs on the day, but it could have been even worse for Oakland with Minnesota leaving 13 runners on base and going 7-for-21 with runners in scoring position.

After picking up his career-high-tying strikeout, Ober faced Athletics Armanda Alvarez in his first big league at bat following 700 career minor league games. He tapped a check swing back to the mound and will be hoping for another chance. Daz Cameron grounded out, and Ober completed the game on just 89 pitches. He becomes only the third pitcher, joining Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, to pitch a complete game in the Rocco Baldelli era.

Notes
Manuel Margot’s game-opening single was the 700th hit of his career. He has started heating up and is faring well against left-handed pitchers this year. Going 3-for-5 on the day, he had himself a nice start.

It’s been quite a while since Joe Mauer has done an autograph event outside of Twins Fest. Fan HQ has lined up a private signing, and while the date has yet to be set, the details are available.

Willi Castro became just the fourth player in Major League history to accomplish this incredibly versatile feat.

Potential Twins trade target Jesus Luzardo almost certainly won’t be moved at the deadline. The Marlins hurler hit the injured list, and Miami’s most valuable trade chip has all but been taken off the table.

Max Kepler was unlikely to start Saturday against a lefty, and he could get another day of rest for his neck spasms with the Athletics having another southpaw going on Sunday as well.

What’s Next? 
The Twins look to win their last game ever at the Oakland Coliseum. Pablo Lopez starts for Minnesota against the Athletics Hogan Harris. A win would give them a series victory, and end the year against Oakland with a 5-1 record.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
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Posted

I would never have thought that Buxton being in the bottom of the order would be a good thing. Makes me kinda sad!

Posted
30 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

I would never have thought that Buxton being in the bottom of the order would be a good thing. Makes me kinda sad!

Its where he should be.

Posted
1 hour ago, Linus said:

This is Ober at his best in that he used all his pitches extensively and threw lots of strikes. 

Agreed. And where is Ober in the top three WPA above.........................nowhere to be found. Obviously not a good stat to follow.

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Good luck to Castro to get his 20 games in at CF, LF, SS & 3B (he'll probably get in 20 games at 2B also)

I hope that activates some super secret provision of the CBS for a nice bonus. He's been fantastic.

31 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed. And where is Ober in the top three WPA above.........................nowhere to be found. Obviously not a good stat to follow.

Great call out, I didn't even notice because I ignore WPA for these exact reasons. What's the WPA bump for the next two days for giving the bullpen the day off? It's gotta be huge.

Speaking of that, very nice to have a day where the offense produces and the starting pitching is good. Even a seven inning start is great on a day like this. Too many close games lately is stressful for everybody.

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Good luck to Castro to get his 20 games in at CF, LF, SS & 3B (he'll probably get in 20 games at 2B also)

It appears that Willi will be the only person to accomplish the feat of 20 games at five defensive positions. Could he get All-Star consideration? He's a true (super) utility player putting up good numbers offensively.

Posted

Ober's 89-pitch CG is an example of how many things have to come together. 1) Ober got a big lead in the early innings. 2) The bullpen had been overused recently, no pitcher really needed to work. 3) The Athletics were in swing-early mode from the beginning of the game and kept Ober's pitch count low. 4) Ober was sharp, throwing well over 70% strikes and was tough to hit from the get-go. Congratulations to Bailey for getting a rare complete-game victory.

Posted

I can't believe Rocco didn't pull Ober after 5 IP. What was he thinking? 

(Snicker...guilty troll...snicker)

Ober was fantastic! As long as he NEVER faces the Royals again he's a very, very good rotation arm. Ever notice that when he's doing good and "feeling it" he just takes one big step off the mound, his back turned to home plate, takes a couple more steps, and just has this "YES" attitude invisible tattooed all over his 6' 9" frame? I love it!

This is what he can do. And he really helped the pen that was stretched the past few games. Feels like the offense...despite still leaving some guys on base...were kind of PO'd at themselves and wanted to make sure this game was a W.

I think a few posters, myself included, might have to just admit that Margot might not be done yet. Believe me, I have been skeptical as can be. But he's been a MUCH better the past 30 days. Even his defense has been better, including a tremendous slide catch in the late innings today. I'm not totally buying in on him for the rest of the season...he and Martin are almost a redundancy...but he's actually performing now like the player he was supposed to be. Tune in a couple weeks from now and we'll see, but really good the past month.

Can we finally start giving kudos to Miranda? Everyone loved his 2021 milb season where he seemed to put it together. Like most rookies, he had some ups and downs in 2022, but he looked like a building block kind of player. Then his 2023 was wiped out due to a shoulder injury. So suddenly he's a nothing? He's as good, or better, than his rookie season right now. He's never going to be great defensively anywhere, but he can be solid. And the bat seems to play. He's making contact, walking a little, hitting singles and doubles and some HR as well. Who cares if his HR are only 90mph? If they go over the fence, they still count?

Personally, I believe a lot of young and young-ish players see an uptick in HR production due to experience and maturation. Miranda's game has ALWAYS been about CONTACT.  Where he MATURED was realizing "contact" didn't mean bat to ball on a pitchers pitch for WEAK contact. 

I think Miranda deserves a little more love than he's been getting. Feels like the Julien, Wallner resets and issues with AK have distracted a lot of attention away from how good Miranda has been performing. 

Posted

This is what I expect from the twins every game!!! Ober was spectacular!!! huge much needed win!!! Let’s get the series win tomorrow!!! Go Twins!!!

Posted

Couldn't have asked for a better outcome  ...

Pitching and offense at its best today  , unbelievable 89 pitches to go nine innings for Ober  , congratulations  Bailey  ...

It was an exciting outing for Bailey  , I don't have much love for our manager  , today though is an exception  ...

Posted
4 hours ago, Linus said:

What a pleasure to watch the game. Did not think I would see a complete game by a Twins pitcher this year. This is Ober at his best in that he used all his pitches extensively and threw lots of strikes. 

He's always felt very "Brad Radke" to me. I know he has a stinker every so often but I think Ober will be a starter in the majors for a long time! I enjoy watching him pitch. 

Posted
1 hour ago, BsuNemo said:

He's always felt very "Brad Radke" to me. I know he has a stinker every so often but I think Ober will be a starter in the majors for a long time! I enjoy watching him pitch. 

Radke was a borderline Hall of Famer at the end of his career considering his career was cut way short by injury (retired after playing his age 33 season with a broken shoulder, and he was still better than average). He has the 6th most career WAR while wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform of any player.
Carew = 63.8 (HoF), Killebrew 60.4 (HoF), Mauer 55.2 (HoF), Puckett 51.1 (HoF), Blyleven (HoF), Radke 45.6, Oliva 43.0 (HoF)
Radke is undoubtedly the most underappreciated player in Twins history, and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for his exceptional value on the field, but to go a step further, he also played a critical role in saving the Minnesota Twins from contraction. Ober's a fine #4 guy, but Radke was the best starting pitcher to wear a Twins uniform in the past 30 years not named Johan Santana. Radke was a true ace with 6 seasons over 4.3 WAR, and 3 at 5.8 or higher.
 

Posted

It's so satisfying to see a complete game in the box score. Heck of a game by Ober!

For those pointing to WPA, it's about how a player influences the likelihood of a game being won or lost. The Twins jumped out to a huge lead so no matter how well Ober pitched, it was unlikely to win or lose the game. Ober could have given up 9 runs on the Twins still would have won. Thus, low WPA because the great performance wasn't necessary to win.

Posted

As much as I would love to jump on the bandwagon, and I would really love to, I just can't bring myself to get excited about beating up on teams like the A's.  As of today we are 17-2 against the A's, Rockies, White Sox, and Angels.........1-16 against the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, and Dodgers.  The offense always seems to get well and have great stats against the bottom feeders, but that is expected.  Right now we have a team that is the best of the rest, but not in the top tier.  We will hold our own against the majority of the league, beat up the bottom of the league, and falter against the top tier of the league.  What frustrates me is I can predict too many wins and too many losses before the 1st pitch is thrown.  

I loved the game Ober threw, and it really helped the pen.  And with the day off on Monday, all hands will be on deck this afternoon, and we will take this game handily.  But I am in cruise control until October, when we see the best and find out where we match up.  I am also looking forward to the trade deadline to see how ownership views this team and how much it cares about its fan base.  Hopefully the team will keep the pressure on Joe P. by being within striking distance.  And more games like Bailey's will do just that! 😉

Posted
6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Radke was a borderline Hall of Famer at the end of his career considering his career was cut way short by injury (retired after playing his age 33 season with a broken shoulder, and he was still better than average). He has the 6th most career WAR while wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform of any player.
Carew = 63.8 (HoF), Killebrew 60.4 (HoF), Mauer 55.2 (HoF), Puckett 51.1 (HoF), Blyleven (HoF), Radke 45.6, Oliva 43.0 (HoF)
Radke is undoubtedly the most underappreciated player in Twins history, and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for his exceptional value on the field, but to go a step further, he also played a critical role in saving the Minnesota Twins from contraction. Ober's a fine #4 guy, but Radke was the best starting pitcher to wear a Twins uniform in the past 30 years not named Johan Santana. Radke was a true ace with 6 seasons over 4.3 WAR, and 3 at 5.8 or higher.
 

Don't forget on Radke, and perhaps Ober, getting out of the first inning without surrendering runs was his biggest challenge. 

It was like he had to learn how to get this pitches to work at the beginning of every game.  But once he did, it was like a magician with a bag of tricks == now you see it, now you don't, now you can't.

Posted
3 hours ago, Mark G said:

s of today we are 17-2 against the A's, Rockies, White Sox, and Angels.........1-16 against the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, and Dodgers. 

Yikes ... that does put things in perspective. Winning some of these games against teams like the A's is fun, but as you noted we need to be able to win games against these top tier teams too. 

Posted
13 hours ago, Verified Member said:

I would never have thought that Buxton being in the bottom of the order would be a good thing. Makes me kinda sad!

Considering that Buxton is healthy and starting most games, and yet he hasn't had much of an impact on games this season is a big concern for me. He's become the invisible man on this team. 

Posted
12 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

That’s insane

Saw on MLB that Randy Johnson threw 82 pitches in a complete game (8 inning) loss v. Pittsburgh……..,Ober, obviously, threw 9 innings and kept it at 89.

Posted
58 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Don't forget on Radke, and perhaps Ober, getting out of the first inning without surrendering runs was his biggest challenge. 

It was like he had to learn how to get this pitches to work at the beginning of every game.  But once he did, it was like a magician with a bag of tricks == now you see it, now you don't, now you can't.

I heard it said many times during Radke's career that the 1st inning problem was finding the release point. Many years ago during a game that Randy Johnson was pitching, the analyst commented that tall and lanky guys had a harder time finding that release point. I wonder if that's a problem for Ober? 

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