Why Minnesota Twins Fans Shouldn't Fear the Cleveland Guardians

[Matthew Taylor]

Despite the current standings, there are several strong indicators that suggest the Guardians aren’t as good as their record says they are and that the Twins are well-positioned to catch up to and surpass them in the division race.

 

We are about one-third of the way through the 2024 season and the Minnesota Twins are looking at a six game deficit behind the Cleveland Guardians, who boast the second best record in the American League. When you dive deeper into the Guardians team statistics, though, the legitimacy of that record starts to come into question. There are reasons to believe why the Guardians aren’t as good as their record says they are. Let’s dive into them.

Strength of Schedule: The Road Gets Tougher for Cleveland

One major factor working in favor of the Twins is the disparity in the remaining schedule difficulty between the two teams. To date, the Guardians have benefitted from playing the second easiest schedule in all of baseball, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of just .476. For comparison, the Twins have played the fifth hardest schedule to date with a combined opponent winning percentage of .513. This schedule discrepancy has certainly contributed to difference in standings in the AL Central.

The tables will soon turn, though. For the rest of the season, the Guardians will be facing the third toughest schedule in the league, with their opponents boasting a combined winning percentage of .516. This significant increase in the level of competition suggests that the Guardians' path forward will be far more challenging, offering the Twins a golden opportunity to make up ground, as the Twins have the ninth easiest schedule the rest of the way with a combined opponent winning percentage of .492.

Advanced Statistics: Luck Might Be Running Out for Cleveland

A deeper dive into the advanced statistics reveals that the Guardians have been riding a wave of good fortune, particularly when it comes to batted balls. Cleveland currently has the largest gap in baseball between their expected slugging percentage (.373) and their actual slugging percentage (.395). Similarly, their expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA, a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base) and actual wOBA show the biggest disparity in the league. These metrics indicate that Cleveland's hitters have experienced a great deal of batted ball luck, outperforming their expected outcomes based on the quality of their contact.

This luck is unlikely to sustain itself over the course of an entire season. As regression to the mean takes its course, we can expect the Guardians' offensive production to dip closer to their expected metrics, potentially leading to fewer runs and, consequently, fewer wins.

Of note: on the pitching side of things, the Guardians are pretty much middle of the pack in terms of expected and actual statistics, ranking 17th in SLG/xSLG and in wOBA/xwOBA.

Umpire Assistance: An Unusual Advantage

According to Umpire Scorecard, a website that uses Statcast data to evaluate umpire performance, the Cleveland Guardians have also been the beneficiaries of favorable umpiring more than any other team. On average, umpires have added 0.31 runs per game for the Guardians, totaling 17.77 runs this season. This assistance is a 46% increase over the second luckiest team in this metric.

While the impact of umpire decisions can be unpredictable, this advantage is another example of the unsustainable factors that have played a role in Cleveland's success. It's reasonable to anticipate a normalization in umpire calls, which could further impact the Guardians' performance negatively.

It's true that the Guardians have had the upper hand in the head-to-head matchups against the Twins so far this season, boasting a 5-0 record. However, only two of those games were played at Target Field. The good news is that there are still seven games remaining between these two teams, with four of them to be played in Minnesota. This gives the Twins ample opportunity to directly cut into the Guardians' lead, and reclaim their spot atop the division.

While the Twins are currently six games behind the Guardians, the factors discussed above suggest that Cleveland may struggle to maintain their current pace. A tougher remaining schedule, an expected regression in their offensive luck, and a likely reduction in umpire assistance all point towards a potential downturn for the Guardians. Coupled with the upcoming head-to-head matchups, Twins fans have every reason to feel optimistic about their team's chances to close the gap and ultimately capture the AL Central crown.

Do you think the Guardians pose a serious threat to the American League Central Division crown or do you think their hot start has been more smoke in mirrors? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

View full article

[Schmoeman5]

How much would you be willing to bet?

[LambchoP]

Yes, we should fear Cleveland. They're a better team than us. They've beaten us five times now. Second best record in the AL. Might they regress a bit, probably. But they are the team to beat in the central for sure.

[bean5302]

I definitely expect the Guardians to collapse. I believe they're probably the 4th best team in the AL Central behind the Twins, Royals, and Tigers.

[garn from vancouver]

as said above - they are better than the twins at this point. until the twins can beat cleveland, we're in tough.

[Doctor Gast]

Will CLE add at the deadline? probably nothing significant. Twins? Hopefully much better

[gman]

I expect the Twins to catch Cleveland, I do think Minnesota has to control their destiny however and we've made the margin for error closer than it needed to be. If Ober can pitch closer to last years form and the next injury replacement holds his own we can make up ground by the allstar break.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I definitely expect the Guardians to collapse. I believe they're probably the 4th best team in the AL Central behind the Twins, Royals, and Tigers.

I do hope they collapse, but I do not believe the Tigers and Royals are better then them.   They have had a weaker schedule (Twins are included in that), but have also navigated some injuries.     I think the Twins will make a run at them but they are clearly the top two in the division.    The others have closed the gap, but have not passed.

[Dman]

I think those are good reasonable points, but if baseball has taught me anything it is to expect the unexpected.  Teams that get off to good starts can sometime mask their deficiencies just enough to take the division.  Also injuries can play a huge role in team outcomes.  Lose a couple of key bats or arms and that can affect the win\lose record real quick.

I haven't looked that closely at the Guardians team, but I feel like Minnesota has the better deeper team.  I also think the Twins can make up some ground as they play teams they have better odds of defeating.  I still like the odds of the Twins winning the division, but we'll know more by the All Star break.

[Linus]

The math gets to be a problem. If Cleveland plays 500 the rest of the season they are a 91 win team. That’s a high bar for the Twins. 

[Vanimal46]

I think Cleveland fans have a more compelling case to not fear the Twins… 

[$tryf4Life]

I’d like the team to convince me of why I shouldn’t fear the guardians by winning a game against them. 
 

Journalists have been saying the guardians aren’t that good all year. 
 

That’s why they play the games. To prove it.

 

glad the stats say they aren’t better than us. The eye test doesn’t yet. 

[Schmoeman5]

You play the schedule. Cleveland has won every game vs Twins. The Twins are in 3rd. Behind TWO teams not just Cleveland. KC and Cleveland both have better starting pitching. Cleveland hits well and runs well putting pressure on the defense. Plus they have Clase. Ask yourself. What Twin starts in the Cleveland lineup. Lewis isn't replacing Ramirez.  Correa probably. Who else? Kepler in rf. Buxton. Maybe. Rose colored glasses.

[nicksaviking]

Cleveland may be a playoff team, but they're not a legit WS contender. Great bullpen, but too many holes in the lineup. And unless the previously unknown 32-year-old Ben Lively has blossomed into a full season stud, they don't have the horses at the front of the rotation.

I like the Twins rotation better, but mostly they're in the same boat. Still, I'm not afraid of Cleveland winning the division simply because I don't care about winning the division. Neither team appears to be a championship caliber team, but if one were to transform into one, I guess I'd put my money on Ryan and Lopez becoming the horses needed to win it all over Bibee and Lively.

[Jocko87]

Losing their best starting pitcher will catch up with them eventually. Adjustments to his replacements are being made.

[thelanges5]

20 over .500 gives the Guardos a lot of leeway for the rest of the season. Twins have to play damn near perfect to catch them. 

[DuluthRoots]

We will fight for the right to lose to the Yankees in the playoffs.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

The math gets to be a problem. If Cleveland plays 500 the rest of the season they are a 91 win team. That’s a high bar for the Twins. 

Crazy that this wasn't touched on in the article. The bulk of the "heavy lifting," is done. Cleveland needs to start slowing down now, like this very moment, because another 3-4 weeks of solid play means it'll take an all time collapse for the Twins to have a chance at surpassing them in the division. 

[terrydactyls]

I used to love playing Strato-Matic baseball and that's what this article reminds me of.  Too bad the games only count when played on an actual baseball field.

[Riverbrian]

I fear no one and I fear everyone at the same time. 

[Patzky]

I'll believe they stop winning when I see it.

[thelanges5]

Well, they did lose to the Royals today 👍

[jorgenswest]

A prefer a strong and competitive Al Central. I don’t think a World Series winner is likely to emerge from baseball’s weakest division. It is far better to play against better competition. It is far better to have to battle to win the division. Competitive teams in strong divisions are going to draw better. The competition will also expose the team’s weaknesses.

I look forward to when standing pat at the deadline and cutting the budget in the winter is not a viable path towards winning the AL Central.

[Craig Arko]

The only time I’d fear any professional athlete is when they’re in a bar or behind the wheel of a vehicle. Otherwise the ones who do their job better and maybe get some luck generally win.

[old nurse]

I think beyond the headline the author did not need to write anther word. 

[mikelink45]

This is really too early. For a team as erratic as the twins are, you're going to tell me that we shouldn't fear the guardians who have clearly been setting the pace so far. Let's wait a while before we start to get cocky about who is good and who isn't.  

[DocBauer]

I always fear the Guardians. I had them finishing 3nd this year, but relatively close to the Twins. Unfortunately, we can't undo a bat start to the season that put the Twins in this hole.

In my mind, there are 2 factors that allow the Twins to catch them.

1] You play who's on your schedule. Period. You might catch a team that's cold, or they may be hot. So I don't always buy in to strength of schedule. BUT, we're a THIRD of the way through the schedule so far. So looking at a "swap" of strength of schedule isn't without merit looking forward.

2] Cleveland's offense is always built on contact, with a little speed and some power. They have to string hits together to score runs. The data presented indicates they've been scoring more than they should be. These things tend to even out over time. And a weaker schedule so far, might explain some of the Guardian's "luck" or performance.

Conversely, the Twins HR production is down from what was expected, though their doubles production has been very good. Personally, while sitting about middle of the pack in overall run production, I think the Twins offense has been under producing. And we know who's been generally awful, but we also know Lewis is back, Julien and even Wallner may help produce a better 2nd half production. But also, Larnach and Miranda have surprised and both are looking like they're going to stick. The offense takes a step forward that the talent on hand SAYS they should, that goes a long way to a team that can win more games. For the most part, the pitching has been there.

Cleveland is in the driver's seat right now. A change in opposition on the schedule and an offensive tick up for the Twins, 7-8 games with 2/3 of the season left to play, is not insurmountable. Of course, it sure would help to beat the Guardians head to head later in the season.

I do expect some regression from Cleveland. But the Twins just need to worry about putting the best team on the field and winning every series they can. You don't overcome anything in a day.

[h2oface]

Lack of respect for the opponent, and higher than earned estimation of the home team. You are your record. This is our team. They need to earn it. Cutting budget was a bad strategy from the top. And players don't get better at hitting both left and right handed pitchers if they don't get at bats.

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Too bad the games only count when played on an actual baseball field.

So baseball fans shouldn't discuss anything.  Shut down the site, Brock!  😀

[Aerodeliria]

Only wins and losses matter. The Guardians are as good as their record says they are.