The Twins Trade Deadline Needs: Corner Outfield Questions Aplenty

[Nate Palmer]

As has been well documented this far into the 2024 season, the Minnesota Twins offense has been all over the performance spectrum. As school closes for summer, we hit prime trade deadline speculation territory. To consider trade options well, let’s first look at where the Twins may need upgrades before making a stretch run to October and whether there are any in-house options. 

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Today, we will start by looking at the outfield mix and any improvements that could be made. Later, we will do the same with the Twins' infield mix. 

The Michael A. Taylor Role
Last season, Michael A. Taylor filled a vital role for the Twins as Byron Buxton could not roam center field. Going into the 2024 season, there was always hope that Buxton would return to being the primary center fielder, and thankfully, outside of a quick IL trip, that has been the case. 

Injuries and Buxton are always a possibility, and the Twins front office recognizes that. Instead of re-signing Taylor, Manuel Margot was acquired to fill that role. While I, for one, was originally excited about this as a plan B, it has been pretty ugly thus far. 

Margot was competing for the worst team fWAR at -0.3 and was tied with fellow veteran Christian Vazquez for that title until this weekend when Margot got “better,” and Vazquez dropped further into the negatives. That fWAR has been accumulated by the veteran outfielder in 52 games, where he has slashed .209/.279/.264. As one can imagine, it only gets worse the further we dig into the numbers, such as a .542 OPS, a 58 OPS+, and a 61 wRC+. 

The hope had been for Margot to help the Twins when facing lefties, and while that split is better with a .715 OPS, it doesn’t feel good enough to overshadow the rest of his performance. That includes his normally good fielding. So far this season, Margot has a -2 Outs Above Average. At this point, Willi Castro has been trusted as the primary backup center fielder. Buxton has the clear hold on most action in center for the Twins, with Castro coming in second with 19 games in center field. 

Solidify Left Field
Coming into the season, there was a clear path (barring health) to who would play center field (Buxton) and right field (Max Kepler). Left field, on the other hand, wasn’t as clear. Instead of clarity, there was a variety of options. Now, entering June, that clarity isn’t much better. 

Matt Wallner had the opportunity to grab hold of the position first, but after struggling, he was demoted to St. Paul and has yet to rebound. While Margot has not been trusted in center, he has seen 30 games in left. From there, the others to get time in left include Alex Kirilloff (19), Austin Martin (16), Castro (15), and Laranch (8).

Currently, if the Twins were to run out their best lineup, it likely includes Castro as the starting left fielder. Maybe we are at a point where we need to trust that Castro deserves to be the everyday starting left fielder with his .775 OPS. Is that truly the mix the Twins want for the outfield going further? Certainly, the team may consider whether a more natural left fielder instead of a utility player would be better for the long haul. 

Injury Reinforcements: Often, a team can answer midseason needs by players simply regaining their health. On the major league roster, there aren’t any options like that in the Twins' outfield. Kepler and Buxton have both returned to the lineup after their IL trips. There could be a ripple effect that once Royce Lewis returns, Castro will be that much more available for outfield duties. 

Minor League Promotions: There are a few more minor leaguers who could be promoted to help at some point this summer. 

Austin Martin 
Martin has already seen some action with the Twins this season. His usage seemed strange at best. Outside of the power component, Martin is the player who could be perfect as a fourth outfielder and backup center fielder and fill that Taylor role from last season. The Twins didn’t seem to want to use him that way in his initial run in the majors this season, and Martin’s .224 average and .644 OPS didn’t force their hand to either. 

DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Keirsey is approaching a point where he may have earned himself a chance to play in the big leagues. Defensively, he is fully capable of playing any of the outfield positions. While he would add another lefty to the Twins lineup, he has also been producing at the plate in 2024. Keirsey has a line of .302/.390/.538 as he has suited up for St. Paul this season. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez 
This big swing likely has a slim possibility of happening without a stop at Triple-A St. Paul first. Rodriguez has been destroying Double-A with a 1.079 OPS and seems more than ready for a new challenge. As a top-three prospect in the Twins system, the promotion of Rodriguez to the majors would bring the same sort of excitement that promoting Royce Lewis did last season.  

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[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Nate Palmer said:

The hope had been for Margot to help the Twins when facing lefties, and while that split is better with a .715 OPS, it doesn’t feel good enough to overshadow the rest of his performance

2024 Margot:

61 Plate Appearances vs RH

61 Plate Appearances vs LH

Career Margot

.656 OPS vs RH

This is what happens when you roster short siders. They may be left hander specialists but they face more right handers. In this case with the current numbers of 61 PA's against each hand. The team has to absorb 50% struggling performance in order to get a slight platoon advantage against 25% of the pitchers. 

Hard to justify

[Karbo]

At this point I would use Larnach in left as soon as his toe is better. I have hopes for AK but he looks lost now. I don't know how much more Kiersey has to prove before they clear a spot for him.

[mikelink45]

The Twins do not seem to trust Keirsey - I wonder why? Kiriloff does not have an injury excuse this year - what is his issue?  I thought Larnach would be out there more - is his fielding that poor?  I am not as excited by Martin as most seem to be.  But I am also not ready for trade deadline speculation - it is still almost 2 full months away.

[Mark G]

If I was a betting man, I would bet a nickel that it will be one (or more) of the call ups listed at the end of the article.  A trade for a proven bat would cost money, even if it was just for a third of the season, and if we were willing and/or able to spend money we already would have.  If we are going to spend money at the trade deadline, it will probably be on pitching, not on an outfielder.  

Just my nickel's worth.  

[rv78]

So you are saying that the off-season acquisition of Manuel Margot was NOT a success? How dare you suggest that this FO has made a mistake. Off to the JoeyGallo's with you. Anyhoo..... don't expect the FO to admit a mistake by replacing that mistake. Oh, and if they did? The replacement would just be another mistake. I suspect they'll add another injured arm to the roster before they try to fix any previous mistake.

[Patzky]

29 minutes ago, Mark G said:

If I was a betting man, I would bet a nickel that it will be one (or more) of the call ups listed at the end of the article.  A trade for a proven bat would cost money, even if it was just for a third of the season, and if we were willing and/or able to spend money we already would have.  If we are going to spend money at the trade deadline, it will probably be on pitching, not on an outfielder.  

Just my nickel's worth.  

Wallner's AAA hot streak happened last year around this time and they waited a bit long to really enjoy it *MHO. He's getting there again this year.. a Kirilloff trade off?

[Dave The Dastardly]

30 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

The Twins do not seem to trust Keirsey - I wonder why? Kiriloff does not have an injury excuse this year - what is his issue?  I thought Larnach would be out there more - is his fielding that poor?  I am not as excited by Martin as most seem to be.  But I am also not ready for trade deadline speculation - it is still almost 2 full months away.

I'm with you on all of this, but particularly on the Keirsey thing. How big does the hole have to get before the FO tries to plug it? Try the guy. Find out if he's the plugger or not. He can't do worse, can he?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Curious if Tampa would listen on Arozarena. He's been really bad to start this year, but he has been a star before. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

54 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

2024 Margot:

61 Plate Appearances vs RH

61 Plate Appearances vs LH

Career Margot

.656 OPS vs RH

This is what happens when you roster short siders. They may be left hander specialists but they face more right handers. In this case with the current numbers of 61 PA's against each hand. The team has to absorb 50% struggling performance in order to get 50% average for a slight platoon advantage against 25% of the pitchers. 

Hard to justify

In the Twins' case, a short-side platoon makes sense in the outfield.

The problem is that Margot is bad against righties and just okay against lefties. If his splits were more extreme, it'd be easier to swallow his lack of performance against righties because you'd be replacing really bad LHP performance from Kepler/Larnach/Wallner/etc with really good performance.

[Karbo]

47 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

The Twins do not seem to trust Keirsey - I wonder why? Kiriloff does not have an injury excuse this year - what is his issue?  I thought Larnach would be out there more - is his fielding that poor?  I am not as excited by Martin as most seem to be.  But I am also not ready for trade deadline speculation - it is still almost 2 full months away.

Larnach is still having a turf toe problem they say.

[DJL44]

Quote

Maybe we are at a point where we need to trust that Castro deserves to be the everyday starting left fielder with his .775 OPS.

First, a .775 OPS is well above average in 2024. Second, that's where Castro is playing. He's the starting second baseman so he can't play the outfield unless Julien returns.

[Ole St Carleton]

This seems to be the perfect time to bring up Keirsey and Rodriguez. Larnach & Kirilloff just aren’t consistent and neither is great defensively. And we all know Buxton (who isn’t doing anything offensively) is due for another lengthy trip to the IL soon. 

The current lineup will not be able to make the playoffs- even with Rolls Royce back in. Time to bring up some kids and let them get some big league experience and who knows- maybe they can actually play baseball (ie: bunt, advance runners, sacrifice, steal bases)??

[LambchoP]

I think the best move would be to DFA Margot and try to pass him through waivers. If they want a right handed replacement since management is so obsessed with platooning, call up Martin. If we just want to find the best bat, try Keirsey Jr for awhile. At least he can play solid center field for when Buxton goes down again. AK looks lost at the plate. Larnach has good pop but can't do much in the field. Wallner has gone on a hr binge at St Paul lately. With all these options I really doubt they bring in anyone from outside. If anything, I think they'll pick up a reliever or two. Most likely injured lol...

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

...Kiriloff does not have an injury excuse this year - what is his issue?...

He's not good enough to be an MLB regular. That's the issue. Without the injuries this year, he's magically kinda the same hitter he was with all of the speculatory impact from his "injuries" in the past.

[bean5302]

The Twins honestly need a legitimate long term every day outfielder with the ability to start at CF. The only outfielder they have in the system who might be able to do that in the relative near future is probably Emmanuel Rodriguez. The closest the Twins might have otherwise is DaShawn Keirsey, but I don't think he's going to be any better than Austin Martin or Andrew Stephenson, but it's a good time to give him a shot, I guess?

I keep looking at Larnach's falling stat line wondering if the bubble has burst as I'd already written him off as a 1.0-1.5 WAR outfielder. Good enough as a backup or on a team who just needs a guy who won't kill you if he plays every day.
01-10: .394/.447/.636 OPS 1.096,  10.5% BB, 21.1% K, 93.9mph EV, 11.5% Barrel, 53.8% Hard
11-20: .235/.278/.324 OPS .601, 5.6% BB, 25.0% K, 95.0mph EV, 8.0% Barrel, 56.0% Hard
21-30: .162/.244/.405 OPS .649, 9.8% BB, 17.1% K, 94.5mph EV, 13.3% Barrel, 50.0% Hard
I expanded Larnach's sample size to a full season based on the approximate percentage of pitches he'd see of each type (over 5% stuff only)

He's just continued doing stuff he's never done before. His K rate is WAY down, and he's hitting breaking stuff better than ever. He's been unreal against the 4 seamer, and I can't see how that is sustainable, but as his sample size grows, he's continuing to rake. He's got to stay up.

[LA Vikes Fan]

48 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree, but from the FO's standpoint, once you release Margot and bring Keirsey up and IF he flops largely, then what?  That of course assumes that somebody claims Margot when he is DFA'd.  If he'd pass through waivers then we could stash him at STP as depth.  Just looking at this from both sides.

You've hit the problem. To bring up Keirsey you have to lose someone from the 40 man, either demote Kirilloff or DFA Margot, AND you need to play a LH hitter in LF against LH starting pitching. We are then kind of stuck if Margot is claimed or traded and Keirsey flops. Having said that, with Lewis up you now have a solid RH hitting DH in Miranda so we should be able to survive having a Larnach or Kirilloff in LF against LH pitching with Miranda and Santana both in the lineup.  

I think this is worth the risk given how little Margot gives the team. I would keep Kirilloff in MLB, DFA or trade Margot (to ATL for cash or an A ball guy?), and call up Keirsey.  If this fails because Keirsey can't hit MLB pitching and neither Larnach or Kirilloff can hit enough to play LF against LH starters, then the fall back is Martin or a trade. I think we do that in the short term so we have 4-5 weeks to see how it works before the trade deadline.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree, but from the FO's standpoint, once you release Margot and bring Keirsey up and IF he flops largely, then what?  That of course assumes that somebody claims Margot when he is DFA'd.  If he'd pass through waivers then we could stash him at STP as depth.  Just looking at this from both sides.

Then you call up Martin or Rodriguez. Margot is putting up negative value, you don't win that way.... Fear is no way to try to win. 

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You've hit the problem. To bring up Keirsey you have to lose someone from the 40 man, either demote Kirilloff or DFA Margot, AND you need to play a LH hitter in LF against LH starting pitching. We are then kind of stuck if Margot is claimed or traded and Keirsey flops. Having said that, with Lewis up you now have a solid RH hitting DH in Miranda so we should be able to survive having a Larnach or Kirilloff in LF against LH pitching with Miranda and Santana both in the lineup.  

I think this is worth the risk given how little Margot gives the team. I would keep Kirilloff in MLB, DFA or trade Margot (to ATL for cash or an A ball guy?), and call up Keirsey.  If this fails because Keirsey can't hit MLB pitching and neither Larnach or Kirilloff can hit enough to play LF against LH starters, then the fall back is Martin or a trade. I think we do that in the short term so we have 4-5 weeks to see how it works before the trade deadline.  

I can find a half dozen guys I would gladly remove from the 40-man. These guys are no better than what's floating around on the DFA front and have lower ceilings than the guys waiting to be promoted. You don't lose anything by calling up a guy like Keirsey and seeing him flop because Margot is already a flop. 

The front office really needs to get over this hang-up.

[Mike Sixel]

No interest in trading for average players. Zero. I don't know why anyone thinks trading for a good player with little control left is a good idea. This team isn't a half session of a decent player away.

[ashbury]

It had been a few days since I checked in on Keirsey, and I find that he has not played in a game since May 26.  Did I miss something about him being injured?

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I can find a half dozen guys I would gladly remove from the 40-man.

I took a look and can't identify more than a couple.  I assume that Keirsey joins your list of half dozen, if he is added to the 40 and comes up and then doesn't hit right away?

[LA Vikes Fan]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It had been a few days since I checked in on Keirsey, and I find that he has not played in a game since May 26.  Did I miss something about him being injured?

Just looked. He is on the 7 day IL in AAA. Has been since May 29.  

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In the Twins' case, a short-side platoon makes sense in the outfield.

The problem is that Margot is bad against righties and just okay against lefties. If his splits were more extreme, it'd be easier to swallow his last of performance against righties.

Agreed in the case of Margot and I agree that platoons always make sense on paper. There is no denying the platoon advantage has proven itself over decades of data.

For comparison sake. Let's forget about the young developing players who need to establish a track record to avoid being Joc Pederson at best.

Let's just use players with a little bit of a track record. 

Career OPS Kepler vs LH: .656

Career OPS Margot vs LH: .758

Career OPS Kepler vs RH: .788

Career OPS Margot vs RH: .656

OPS isn't the be all end all but using OPS... It's pretty clear as a down and dirty stat. The numbers suggest that Kepler should face RH and Margot should face LH the platoon makes sense on paper and we have a partnership to handcuff based on the numbers.  

The 26 man roster commitment to it... is where the "On Paper" falls apart. 

In 2024 - Margot's equal 61 PA's against Right Handers and Left Handers thus far in the season is the Twins trying real hard to stay committed to it but the right handers keep stepping on the mound and become impossible to avoid. It's easy math - 50% of his AB's are against Right Handers.   

In 2024 - Kepler has 113 PA's against Right Handers and 24 PA's against left handers this year. 82% against Right Handers and 18% of his AB's are against left handers. 

In 2024 - There are 4 players who are tied for the plate appearance lead in 2024. Altuve, Arraez, Semien and Mikael Garcia all have 251 plate appearances. Because they lead all of baseball in plate appearances I'm going to assume that they are not being platooned and that's why I'm using those 4 players.

Those 4 players combine to:

748 PA's vs RH

317 PA's vs LH

That's 70% vs RH and 30% vs LH for the 4 every day guys not being platooned.   

In order to drop Kepler a total of 12% against left handers (30% to 18%) and play the platoon advantage. You give the platoon advantage right back and more by batting Margot 50% of the time against Right Handers. You give 20% in order to gain 12% and that's just the percentage which actually calms the optics a little because it doesn't reflect the imbalance of righties and lefties on the mound of the other 29 teams.   

Ideally... You'd like Kepler to have zero AB's against lefties and Margot zero AB's against right handers but the disparity isn't going to let that happen.

However... let's use the zero AB model (which will never happen because of the disparity). Using 137 PA's that Kepler has taken this year. 30% against left handers would be 41 AB's. In order to shield Kepler from taking all of those 41 plate appearances against left handers you have to give Margot 61 AB's against right handers because Margot has 61 AB's against Right handers this year. That's plus 20 more AB's of .656 OPS on the bad side.

It cost you 61 AB's of .656 to prevent 41 AB's of .656. Again... Career OPS for Kepler against left is .656 and Career OPS for Margot against right is .656 so they make perfect comparisons.    

Not to mention that it takes two roster spots in order to platoon in this fashion. Now times it by 3 because Farmer, Margot and Santana are all left handed pitcher specialists. With 13 spots... that's your entire extra player inventory used up to shield  Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Julien from left handers. 

Here's the team total... Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach(Wallner) add up to 504 plate appearances combined this season. 30% of that would be 151 PA's against left handers if they were not platooned.

Santana, Margot and Farmer combined add up to 269 PA's against Right Handers so far this year. That's 118 extra AB's on the bad side just to try and prevent the 30%. 

They are giving up more than they get.

Even the Lefty Specialist Poster Boy Kyle Garlick faced right handers 44% of the time. Which is of course 14% more than the 30% you are trying to protect. 

Not to mention... the atrophying taking place with our young left handed hitters which means that they will always have to protect them and therefore always need to roster Margot types year after year after year after year.  

Anyway... I agree with Margot being the wrong choice but I'm not sure more extreme splits will cover the imbalance. The Twins have simply over cooked this thing and are playing the split the wrong way.  

       

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed in the case of Margot and I agree that platoons always make sense on paper. There is no denying the platoon advantage has proven itself over decades of data.

For comparison sake. Let's forget about the young developing players who need to establish a track record to avoid being Joc Pederson at best.

Let's just use players with a little bit of a track record. 

Career OPS Kepler vs LH: .656

Career OPS Margot vs LH: .758

Career OPS Kepler vs RH: .788

Career OPS Margot vs RH: .656

OPS isn't the be all end all but using OPS... It's pretty clear as a down and dirty stat. The numbers suggest that Kepler should face RH and Margot should face LH the platoon makes sense on paper and we have a partnership to handcuff based on the numbers.  

The 26 man roster commitment to it... is where the "On Paper" falls apart. 

In 2024 - Margot's equal 61 PA's against Right Handers and Left Handers thus far in the season is the Twins trying real hard to stay committed to it but the right handers keep stepping on the mound and become impossible to avoid. It's easy math - 50% of his AB's are against Right Handers.   

In 2024 - Kepler has 113 PA's against Right Handers and 24 PA's against left handers this year. 82% against Right Handers and 18% of his AB's are against left handers. 

In 2024 - There are 4 players who are tied for the plate appearance lead in 2024. Altuve, Arraez, Semien and Mikael Garcia all have 251 plate appearances. Because they lead all of baseball in plate appearances I'm going to assume that they are not being platooned and that's why I'm using those 4 players.

Those 4 players combine to:

748 PA's vs RH

317 PA's vs LH

That's 70% vs RH and 30% vs LH for the 4 every day guys not being platooned.   

In order to drop Kepler a total of 12% against left handers (30% to 18%) and play the platoon advantage. You give the platoon advantage right back and more by batting Margot 50% of the time against Right Handers. You give 20% in order to gain 12% and that's just the percentage which actually calms the optics a little because it doesn't reflect the imbalance of righties and lefties on the mound of the other 29 teams.   

Ideally... You'd like Kepler to have zero AB's against lefties and Margot zero AB's against right handers but the disparity isn't going to let that happen.

However... let's use the zero AB model (which will never happen because of the disparity). Using 137 PA's that Kepler has taken this year. 30% against left handers would be 41 AB's. In order to shield Kepler from taking all of those 41 plate appearances against left handers you have to give Margot 61 AB's against right handers because Margot has 61 AB's against Right handers this year. That's plus 20 more AB's of .656 OPS on the bad side.

It cost you 61 AB's of .656 to prevent 41 AB's of .656. Again... Career OPS for Kepler against left is .656 and Career OPS for Margot against right is .656 so they make perfect comparisons.    

Not to mention that it takes two roster spots in order to platoon in this fashion. Now times it by 3 because Farmer, Margot and Santana are all left handed pitcher specialists. With 13 spots... that's your entire extra player inventory used up to shield  Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Julien from left handers. 

Here's the team total... Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach(Wallner) add up to 504 plate appearances combined this season. 30% of that would be 151 PA's against left handers if they were not platooned.

Santana, Margot and Farmer combined add up to 269 PA's against Right Handers so far this year. That's 118 extra AB's on the bad side just to try and prevent the 30%. 

They are giving up more than they get.

Even the Lefty Specialist Poster Boy Kyle Garlick faced right handers 44% of the time. Which is of course 14% more than the 30% you are trying to protect. 

Not to mention... the atrophying taking place with our young left handed hitters which means that they will always have to protect them and therefore always need to roster Margot types year after year after year after year.  

Anyway... I agree with Margot being the wrong choice but I'm not sure more extreme splits will cover the imbalance. The Twins have simply over cooked this thing and are playing the split the wrong way.  

In general, I agree with the idea of what you're posting here but not the reality because you're using Kepler as the baseline. Kepler is bad against lefties but not awful. He also provides quality defense and pretty solid PAs against pitchers on both sides of the rubber.

Swap out Kepler for Wallner or Larnach, though. Swapping in Margot for 2-3 PAs sees a significant improvement in both hitting and defense.

With that said, I probably would have cut Margot before Julien (though it's close enough that I won't criticize their move too much, either). But that has a lot to do with Margot not playing center field, which is the insurance I wanted to see when they rostered Margot.

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed in the case of Margot and I agree that platoons always make sense on paper. There is no denying the platoon advantage has proven itself over decades of data.

For comparison sake. Let's forget about the young developing players who need to establish a track record to avoid being Joc Pederson at best.

Let's just use players with a little bit of a track record. 

Career OPS Kepler vs LH: .656

Career OPS Margot vs LH: .758

Career OPS Kepler vs RH: .788

Career OPS Margot vs RH: .656

OPS isn't the be all end all but using OPS... It's pretty clear as a down and dirty stat. The numbers suggest that Kepler should face RH and Margot should face LH the platoon makes sense on paper and we have a partnership to handcuff based on the numbers.  

The 26 man roster commitment to it... is where the "On Paper" falls apart. 

In 2024 - Margot's equal 61 PA's against Right Handers and Left Handers thus far in the season is the Twins trying real hard to stay committed to it but the right handers keep stepping on the mound and become impossible to avoid. It's easy math - 50% of his AB's are against Right Handers.   

In 2024 - Kepler has 113 PA's against Right Handers and 24 PA's against left handers this year. 82% against Right Handers and 18% of his AB's are against left handers. 

In 2024 - There are 4 players who are tied for the plate appearance lead in 2024. Altuve, Arraez, Semien and Mikael Garcia all have 251 plate appearances. Because they lead all of baseball in plate appearances I'm going to assume that they are not being platooned and that's why I'm using those 4 players.

Those 4 players combine to:

748 PA's vs RH

317 PA's vs LH

That's 70% vs RH and 30% vs LH for the 4 every day guys not being platooned.   

In order to drop Kepler a total of 12% against left handers (30% to 18%) and play the platoon advantage. You give the platoon advantage right back and more by batting Margot 50% of the time against Right Handers. You give 20% in order to gain 12% and that's just the percentage which actually calms the optics a little because it doesn't reflect the imbalance of righties and lefties on the mound of the other 29 teams.   

Ideally... You'd like Kepler to have zero AB's against lefties and Margot zero AB's against right handers but the disparity isn't going to let that happen.

However... let's use the zero AB model (which will never happen because of the disparity). Using 137 PA's that Kepler has taken this year. 30% against left handers would be 41 AB's. In order to shield Kepler from taking all of those 41 plate appearances against left handers you have to give Margot 61 AB's against right handers because Margot has 61 AB's against Right handers this year. That's plus 20 more AB's of .656 OPS on the bad side.

It cost you 61 AB's of .656 to prevent 41 AB's of .656. Again... Career OPS for Kepler against left is .656 and Career OPS for Margot against right is .656 so they make perfect comparisons.    

Not to mention that it takes two roster spots in order to platoon in this fashion. Now times it by 3 because Farmer, Margot and Santana are all left handed pitcher specialists. With 13 spots... that's your entire extra player inventory used up to shield  Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Julien from left handers. 

Here's the team total... Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach(Wallner) add up to 504 plate appearances combined this season. 30% of that would be 151 PA's against left handers if they were not platooned.

Santana, Margot and Farmer combined add up to 269 PA's against Right Handers so far this year. That's 118 extra AB's on the bad side just to try and prevent the 30%. 

They are giving up more than they get.

Even the Lefty Specialist Poster Boy Kyle Garlick faced right handers 44% of the time. Which is of course 14% more than the 30% you are trying to protect. 

Not to mention... the atrophying taking place with our young left handed hitters which means that they will always have to protect them and therefore always need to roster Margot types year after year after year after year.  

Anyway... I agree with Margot being the wrong choice but I'm not sure more extreme splits will cover the imbalance. The Twins have simply over cooked this thing and are playing the split the wrong way.  

       

 

 

I demand a spreadsheet with graph.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

First, a .775 OPS is well above average in 2024. Second, that's where Castro is playing. He's the starting second baseman so he can't play the outfield unless Julien returns.

Yes, Castro is doing a fine job in LF. Martin started out well but like most rookies that's not Lewis their start end up slow but comes roaring back when recalled. Keirsey needs to be put on the 40 man be called up to get his feet wet he has potential & these guys are good subs for CF. Then we have Wallner who'll return a better hitter than when he left, Larnach after his toe heals and Kiriloff is used too much in the OF, just returning from shoulder & wrist problems. IMO that could be his hitting problem even though there's no obvious xrays manifestations. I'd want him to play more at 1B, IMO hitting would become better. Emma needs a call up just so he'd know what work on his hitting to adjust to MLB.

So I think we are sitting just fine at LF & our main need is a postseason SP.

[Muppet]

You are all nuts. 

Over the past 2 weeks Margot has a slash line of .286/.412/.357/.769 and has generated runs that have been the difference in multiple Twins wins. It'll take him a long time to make up for his bad start and have respectable numbers on the year, but baseball is a streaky sport. People start slow and get hot. A much shorter hot streak may have saved AK from from getting sent when Lewis was up. Right now is not the time to replace Margot. He has literally carried this team in recent games. Let him stay hot.  Plus his defense, while maybe not great, is better than Larnach and Kirilloff. And defense might not win games, but it does keep the team from losing games. 

We might as well be calling for the heads of Jeffers, Kepler, Buxton, and Correa. THEY should be our all stars and they haven't done crap lately.  Since May 15 Jeffers has an ops of .545, almost .150 lower than Margot. Buxton's OPS .592; Correa OPS .712 (averagish, but still lower than Margot); and Kepler .556. 

Nobody expects Margot to be the team MVP, but those players that COULD be the team MVP better start playing like it. In recent weeks, the Twins owe their wins to Margot, Santana and Vazquez (defensively). So win the Yankees sweep the Twins again... look to the top of the lineup to place your blame.  

And furthermore... if the past 3 years of watching the ups and downs of Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, Julien, and Martin haven't taught us anything, we should know better than to DFA our veteran depth to gamble on the next hottest rookie phenom. Even, ,... gasp ... Royce Lewis is susceptible to a deep sophomore slump until he figures out the league's adjustments and turns back into Mickey Mantle Jr. 

(None of this applies to Farmer. That guy is done)

 

[KBJ1]

Left field has been a gaping hole since Rosario was let go. I had hoped Martin would be a spark plug & good CF backup.

But while his hitting may come around, his fielding has been disappointing. He doesn't have the experience nor the arm for CF.

At this point, Keirsey or Rodriguez need to be given a shot. Willie Castro is a great utility player, but NOT an everyday LF. If only we'd taken that $15M we spent on DiSclafini, Santana & Margot and signed Gurriel. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I took a look and can't identify more than a couple.  I assume that Keirsey joins your list of half dozen, if he is added to the 40 and comes up and then doesn't hit right away?

I'd give him some leash, but I'm not holding tightly to anyone who doesn't look like they are an above average player.

As for the guys I wouldn't sweat removing from the 40-man: Margot, Farmer then the relievers in this order, Boushley, Funderburk, Winder, Theilbar (ducks), Henriquez and Okert (his numbers look fine, but he isn't good). Obviously you don't ditch all the relievers, but any of those guys would make sense. And controversial take, I'm good removing Severino. I don't see a scenario where his strikeouts will ever allow him to be usable at the MLB level. I'd remove Vazquez for Camargo but obviously you need a backup catcher so there's no logic in removing him just for the sake of clearing 40-man space.

Note, as much as I disliked the Carlos Santana signing and think little of his performance going forward, I'd keep him over these guys.