The Twins Trade Deadline Needs: Corner Outfield Questions Aplenty

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Left field has been a gaping hole since Rosario was let go. I had hoped Martin would be a spark plug & good CF backup.

But while his hitting may come around, his fielding has been disappointing. He doesn't have the experience nor the arm for CF.

At this point, Keirsey or Rodriguez need to be given a shot. Willie Castro is a great utility player, but NOT an everyday LF. If only we'd taken that $15M we spent on DiSclafini, Santana & Margot and signed Gurriel. 

Wallner was literally the 2nd best LFer in the game in the second half last year......I'm hoping he comes back almost that good this year.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In general, I agree with the idea of what you're posting here but not the reality because you're using Kepler as the baseline. Kepler is bad against lefties but not awful. He also provides quality defense and pretty solid PAs against pitchers on both sides of the rubber.

Swap out Kepler for Wallner or Larnach, though. Swapping in Margot for 2-3 PAs sees a significant improvement in both hitting and defense.

With that said, I probably would have cut Margot before Julien (though it's close enough that I won't criticize their move too much, either). But that has a lot to do with Margot not playing center field, which is the insurance I wanted to see when they rostered Margot.

I admit that I am making no attempts to factor in defense but .656 career for Margot and Kepler is a pretty clean comparison over thousands of AB's. 

Weather Kepler should or shouldn't be platooned is a whole other debate. However, Kepler hasn't started the last 10 games against a left hander so he is being platooned at least at the moment. We will see what happens tonight since the roster was just adjusted with Julien replaced by Lewis but my assumption is that he will not start against Rodon tonight and the platoon will continue. 

Basically... All the math that I did wasn't to support what I think they should do but an elementary attempt to show the result of what the Twins are doing.  

 

[farmerguychris]

DFA Margot and call up Martin.  Sure, he didn't look amazing in his prior call ups this year, but he's no worse than Margot and he can fill in other positions when needed.  We know the Twins love positional flexibility so this gives us that without making us worse in any possible way.

[FlyingFinn]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The Twins do not seem to trust Keirsey - I wonder why?

There is actually a good reason now. Keirsey is on the IL and possibly could be there for weeks.

[jorgenswest]

They have depth and platoon players. Margot is just as likely to finish the year as well as any inexpensive platoon right handed corner OF.

Trade for an everyday middle of the order bat or a playoff caliber starter or a late inning reliever. Otherwise the should utilize the players in the system. Julien, Waller, Lee and Rodriguez all have more upside than the inexpensive platoon bat they might add. 

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They have depth and platoon players. Margot is just as likely to finish the year as well as any inexpensive platoon right handed corner OF.

Trade for an everyday middle of the order bat or a playoff caliber starter or a late inning reliever. Otherwise the should utilize the players in the system. Julien, Waller, Lee and Rodriguez all have more upside than the inexpensive platoon bat they might add. 

I want the starter. 

I've seen what this team thinks qualifies as a middle of the order bat and it'd probably be someone like 60-year-old Starling Marte.

[IndianaTwin]

"Outside of the power component, Martin is the player who could be perfect as a fourth outfielder and backup center fielder and fill that Taylor role from last season."

--------------------

Except for the part where Martin's defense is nowhere close to Taylor's (especially in center?). And the part where the (unexpected) power component was the primary unanticipated benefit Taylor added to the mix, whereas Martin has 1 homer in 83 plate appearances in the majors and 15 in 1183 PAs in the minors.

Other than that, sure...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Whenever the team goes on a little bit of a downturn, we all look for the magical answer to fix whatever might be wrong at that moment.  The offense has been all over the map, but figuring out exactly what is causing that is pretty tough to do.  Yesterday, we made a big addition to the offense in Royce Lewis.  Let's give that a chance to play out before trying to throw darts at a moving target.  Reality is that his presence isn't going to fix everything, but it could be enough of a start that other things start to click.  Word has it that Wallner has started to hit a little in the past couple of weeks in St. Paul.  Add the good version of Wallner to the mix along with Lewis, and this thing starts to look a little different.  That's without Julien figuring things back out and/or Brooks Lee coming up.  

My point is that there is help arriving for the offense, and likely more on the way.  At some point, the Twins will have to take the big leap of faith and cut Margot and Farmer.  The later we get into the season, the more likely that becomes a possibility.  I would rather have that than to overpay for a middling bat and expect that guy to be our savior.  Don't misunderstand.  I'm open to trades, just not desperate ones.  Now, if the Yankees would take us up on my offer of Willians Astudillo's ghost for Juan Soto, I'm in!

[Riverbrian]

36 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Trade for an everyday middle of the order bat

Agree with you.

With 6 spots committed to left/right splits and 2 catchers. We have room for 5 everyday players. If they are currently middle of the order quality is a question. 

We will find out tonight for sure but right now those 5 appear to be: Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Castro and Miranda. You nail it... This is where upgrading would have the most bang for the buck. 

Swapping Margot for a different right handed guy doesn't provide a bunch of bang for the buck.  

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agree with you.

With 6 spots committed to left/right splits and 2 catchers. We have room for 5 everyday players. If they are currently middle of the order quality is a question. 

We will find out tonight for sure but right now those 5 appear to be: Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Castro and Miranda. You nail it... This is where upgrading would have the most bang for the buck. 

Swapping Margot for a different right handed guy doesn't provide a bunch of bang for the buck.  

I'm hoping Wallner is the LF/DH/RF sub middle of the order bat he was most of last year in about 2-3 weeks.....Interestingly, your list is all RH except Castro! How Kepler isn't playing against LH starters, and therefore a middle of the order bat (not a you problem a Twins problem) is beyond belief to me.

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm hoping Wallner is the LF/DH/RF sub middle of the order bat he was most of last year in about 2-3 weeks.....Interestingly, your list is all RH except Castro! How Kepler isn't playing against LH starters, and therefore a middle of the order bat (not a you problem a Twins problem) is beyond belief to me.

It just shows the commitment to this platoon system. Along with a larger commitment to shielding the left handed guys against left handed guys more so than shielding the right handed guys against the right handed guys.  

If you spend 15 million dollars combined on Farmer, Margot and Santana in an attempt to be tougher on left handers and shelter the young left handed hitters... they need to play against left handers. That means the 3 left handed hitters are coming out and replaced by the 3 guys rostered at 15 million dollars who specialize in facing left handed pitchers.

I think the Twins would have been better off spending that 15 million on a single player who could strengthen that group of 5 who play every day instead. Someone with better stats against right handed pitching but... it is what it is.  

With Julien down in the minors... it's one less left handed hitter available to come out of the lineup when Rodon hits the stage. So... if Margot is to play against Rodon who else are you going to take out. It's the lefty... Kepler is the guy who has to come out. Farmer will play tonight... Santana will play tonight. Larnach and Kirilloff should be joining Kepler on the bench. 

Unless they rest, Lewis or Buxton tonight. Then Kepler will have to play. But... Rocco will grit his teeth making that decision. 

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree, but from the FO's standpoint, once you release Margot and bring Keirsey up and IF he flops largely, then what?  That of course assumes that somebody claims Margot when he is DFA'd.  If he'd pass through waivers then we could stash him at STP as depth.  Just looking at this from both sides.

Emma

[TwinsDr2021]

The Twins continue to get beat by the Yanks, but learn nothing from them. They gave Volpe 601 plate appearances, let him K 167 times with a 666 OPS and an OPS+ 0f 81, and that experience lead him to have the year he is having this year all while turning 23 just over a month ago.

Wallner at 26 has been 353 total plate appearances over three seasons

Julien at 25 has 602 over two seasons.

AK at 26 has 868 over 4 seasons.

Miranda (almost 27) has 790 over 3 seasons.

Martin 25 has 83

I understand some of this is injuries, some of it is holding them in the minors longer than most would like. But give one of the guys a job and tell them it is theirs for year and let it play out. This hiding, platooning moving up and down of them is just retarding their progression.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins continue to get beat by the Yanks, but learn nothing from them. They gave Volpe 601 plate appearances, let him K 167 times with a 666 OPS and an OPS+ 0f 81, and that experience lead him to have the year he is having this year all while turning 23 just over a month ago.

Wallner at 26 has been 353 total plate appearances over three seasons

Julien at 25 has 602 over two seasons.

AK at 26 has 868 over 4 seasons.

Miranda (almost 27) has 790 over 3 seasons.

Martin 25 has 83

I understand some of this is injuries, some of it is holding them in the minors longer than most would like. But give one of the guys a job and tell them it is theirs for year and let it play out. This hiding, platooning moving up and down of them is just retarding their progression.

 

 

Great post! The Yankees probably didn't play their future OF at SS for three years either. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins continue to get beat by the Yanks, but learn nothing from them. They gave Volpe 601 plate appearances, let him K 167 times with a 666 OPS and an OPS+ 0f 81, and that experience lead him to have the year he is having this year all while turning 23 just over a month ago.

Wallner at 26 has been 353 total plate appearances over three seasons

Julien at 25 has 602 over two seasons.

AK at 26 has 868 over 4 seasons.

Miranda (almost 27) has 790 over 3 seasons.

Martin 25 has 83

I understand some of this is injuries, some of it is holding them in the minors longer than most would like. But give one of the guys a job and tell them it is theirs for year and let it play out. This hiding, platooning moving up and down of them is just retarding their progression.

 

 

This is the Twins strategy, but with mediocre to bad vets instead. Usually short-side platoon ones at that. Gallo, Andrelton Simmons, Margot, Farmer, Santana, etc. get never-ending chances to figure it out instead of letting some kids learn.

I'm not as strong on the "let the kids play" stuff as others, but if my options are crossing my fingers on young guys figuring it out or crossing my fingers on old guys holding on I'll take the young guys. Especially if I'm loading up on 15+ mil worth of the old guys. Give me 1 much better old guy and then young guys trying to figure it out.

[Reptevia]

Despite all the hype on here how all our young guys RAKE!!!!, they sure seem to be league average or worse. It may be time to consider if Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Julien etc have a future with this or any MLB club. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins continue to get beat by the Yanks, but learn nothing from them. They gave Volpe 601 plate appearances, let him K 167 times with a 666 OPS and an OPS+ 0f 81, and that experience lead him to have the year he is having this year all while turning 23 just over a month ago.

Wallner at 26 has been 353 total plate appearances over three seasons

Julien at 25 has 602 over two seasons.

AK at 26 has 868 over 4 seasons.

Miranda (almost 27) has 790 over 3 seasons.

Martin 25 has 83

I understand some of this is injuries, some of it is holding them in the minors longer than most would like. But give one of the guys a job and tell them it is theirs for year and let it play out. This hiding, platooning moving up and down of them is just retarding their progression.

 

 

It's interesting to note that the Yankees do not platoon. 

I'm not suggesting any sort of winning causation. Granted... they have a pretty talented group of starters but I find it interesting that they are not platooning.

Soto, Rizzo and Verdugo are their left handed hitters... they face lefties. Verdugo has a career OPS of .666 against lefties. .777 against righties. Verdugo is facing left handers.   

[RpR]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins continue to get beat by the Yanks, but learn nothing from them. They gave Volpe 601 plate appearances, let him K 167 times with a 666 OPS and an OPS+ 0f 81, and that experience lead him to have the year he is having this year all while turning 23 just over a month ago.

Wallner at 26 has been 353 total plate appearances over three seasons

Julien at 25 has 602 over two seasons.

AK at 26 has 868 over 4 seasons.

Miranda (almost 27) has 790 over 3 seasons.

Martin 25 has 83

I understand some of this is injuries, some of it is holding them in the minors longer than most would like. But give one of the guys a job and tell them it is theirs for year and let it play out. This hiding, platooning moving up and down of them is just retarding their progression.

 

 

So what, it is a team sport, not - me, myself and I.

A whole lot of rookies has come and gone in he past five years, gee, maybe they were cheated by not be allowed to play a full year before they were cast overboard, or maybe they just were not good enough and the Twins owners want a winning team, not another AAA equivalent.

Of course the Twins can become the Yankee team from last year if you want.

[The Mad King]

As much as I wanted to see Martin excel, he was a liability in the OF. 

[Brandon27]

I think starting pitching should be on top of the list and then outfield 

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

That's because they spend $ to obtain a full starting roster of high quality players.  

Certainly the Yankees have enough money to afford a Margot type so Verdugo doesn't have to face that lefthander. 😉

[rv78]

Platooning is only going to be as good as the players that you platoon with. When it involves guys hitting .211 .217 .179 .214 it isn't going to be successful, period. It's a worthless attempt to gain an advantage when you imploy specialist hitters against a certain kind of pitcher.... and they are still bad hitters. 

Then add in the regulars that are hitting .247 .165, .207 .221 .240 and it's not too difficult to see the real problem. These guys just can't hit. Correa can't and never will carry this team, which is what a $30+M superstar is suppose to do. It's way past time for everyone to admit Buxton is the biggest flop in Twins history. Most of the time he can't play and when he does he can barely hit his weight. Kepler who was hitting .300 early on has seen his average drop to .263 and it won't be surprising to anyone if he is back to his old self of hitting in the .220's by the all-star break. Vazquez is washed up offensively. The savior to play 1B, Santana, is one of those specialist, hitting a robust .217. Farmer is hitting a Galloesqe .179. There's your 6 highest paid hitters on the team. Roughly $80 million dollars worth of crap offense. Collectively those 6 are hitting .219. Maybe, just maybe the youngsters who aren't good enough to play everyday or trusted to hit against opposite throwing pitchers really wouldn't be much worse or even possibly be better if given the chance.