Let’s Make a Deal: Twins Can Hook Another Fish in Jesús Luzardo

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins went into the offseason following an ALDS exit, a high-end pitcher to pair with Pablo López topped the shopping list. They didn’t get one in the offseason, but the trade deadline beckons, and Miami Marlins southpaw Jesús Luzardo could definitely be that guy.

 

Image courtesy of © David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports

After the dust settled on the best season the Minnesota Twins have had in decades, fans reasonably hoped that ownership would provide the means for Derek Falvey to add another top-of-the-rotation arm. Instead, in an offseason disrupted and constrained by a misbegotten payroll reduction, Falvey brought in only Anthony DeSclafani, who never touched the Target Field mound.

Looking to bolster the rotation for another postseason run and hoping to catch the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, the Twins will have to turn to the trade market instead. Miami Marlins starter Jesús Luzardo would fit the bill. Ken Rosenthal recently called the southpaw the most likely player to be traded at the deadline, and since Miami has already sent Luis Arráez packing, there is no reason to believe they’ll stop moving the rest of their assets any time soon.

Currently making $5.5 million through arbitration and under team control for another two seasons, the 26-year-old Luzardo is the exact type of cheap payroll guy that intrigues a front office working under a restrictive budget threshold. Of course, that means he’s going to cost significant prospect capital.

If Falvey isn’t going to be allowed to spend more on this roster, then he’ll have to target top talent by flipping prospects. An arm like Luzardo is certainly going to hurt from a return perspective, but having previously linked up with the Marlins for Pablo López and Steven Okert, maybe the Twins can find common ground with them again.

Walker Jenkins would be off the table for Minnesota, and it stands to reason that Emmanuel Rodríguez would be as well--though the Marlins might counter that, if Rodríguez is off the table, so is Luzardo. Brooks Lee is ranked higher than Rodríguez by most, and while his floor is probably the safest, his ceiling could be the lowest. That’s probably where the Marlins start, and it’s something the Twins could consider. Rather than lead with a Jenkins or Rodríguez, maybe the teams could agree on Lee and someone like Marco Raya, Gabriel González, or Brandon Winokur.

The Marlins aren’t close to competing, and by the time they are, Luzardo will be more expensive than they're ever willing to tolerate. The Twins don’t have the plethora of top-100 types that other organizations do, but they have a significant amount of depth on the farm, and parting with one blue-chip player could work.

How deep Falvey delves into conversations with Miami for Luzardo would depend on what the Twins believe he can be in the future. Similar to López, there have been some dazzling glimpses thus far in his career, but the track record is limited. Last season was the first time he threw more than 150 innings in a season, and injury concerns are a constant factor for him. Luzardo’s strikeout stuff has slowed some, dipping from 10.5 K/9 last year to 8.7 K/9 this season. However, almost any organization acquiring his services will be better equipped to unlock his potential than the Marlins are.

Even when the Twins were spending at the top of their means, they were reluctant to pay the going rates for top arms in free agency. Trading for these types of players is a way for the organization to level the playing field, and Luzardo could be another worth plucking from Miami.

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If the Twins were going to explore a deal like this, what would you be willing to give up? Is there another arm you’d part with a bigger piece for, and if so, who is it?

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[Mike Sixel]

I mean, sure. I'd deal any two pitching prospects and Gonzalez or any lower ranked hitter. You are down one pitcher and one hitter in that deal.....

[Linus]

Would definitely be interested but would not include Lee Em Rod or Jenkins. Would include Julien if they are interested and would also throw in one of Varland Festa or Raya. 

[bean5302]

Well, if Falvey hadn't burned $20MM of payroll on platoon/utility guys, he would have been able to bring in a front line starter. In regard to Luzardo, it's tough to say what he's worth.

Probably about a surplus value of $50-60MM, which is a step over Berrios because of the extra control.
Festa + Gonzalez + either Miranda or Julien probably gets it done.

Also consider the Twins can expect to pack on double digits in the millions of salary next year and the year after.

[SotaSports in NM]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Festa + Gonzalez + either Miranda or Julien probably gets it done.

I don't think this would be enough, but I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'm preferential to keeping Julien than Miranda, though. I would say it would take another top 20 prospect if not including Julien.

[SotaSports in NM]

Of Ted's proposed trades I would also do Lee and Gonzalez for Luzardo. I'd hold on to Raya until we know our pitching pipeline is yielding more MLB level starters.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, SotaSports said:

Of Ted's proposed trades I would also do Lee and Gonzalez for Luzardo. I'd hold on to Raya until we know our pitching pipeline is yielding more MLB level starters.

I doubt Brooks Lee has more trade value than Jose Miranda right now. Lee and Gonzalez is definitely not getting it done. You'd have to toss in Festa at least. The Marlins aren't going to cash out on a pitcher without at least one quality pitching prospect in return.

[SotaSports in NM]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I doubt Brooks Lee has more trade value than Jose Miranda right now. Lee and Gonzalez is definitely not getting it done. You'd have to toss in Festa at least. The Marlins aren't going to cash out on a pitcher without at least one quality pitching prospect in return.

Yep, I agree. I was just going off Ted's initial structure with that comment.

[tony&rodney]

Do the Twins need starting pitching or better position players? I'm not seeing a trade for Luzardo but sure, why not send off Gonzalez, Raya, and Schobel.

[Guest]

Haven't we learned our Mahle lesson yet?  The price for Luzardo would be more than this FO should pay.

[Linus]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Do the Twins need starting pitching or better position players? I'm not seeing a trade for Luzardo but sure, why not send off Gonzalez, Raya, and Schobel.

Because that’s not enough. Schobel is a marginal prospect and there are a lot of questions about Raya. 

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, SotaSports said:

Of Ted's proposed trades I would also do Lee and Gonzalez for Luzardo. I'd hold on to Raya until we know our pitching pipeline is yielding more MLB level starters.

You're getting 2.5 years of a starting pitcher, you can lose a pitching prospect. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Would definitely be interested but would not include Lee Em Rod or Jenkins. Would include Julien if they are interested and would also throw in one of Varland Festa or Raya. 

Varland - Em Rod to get a pitching talent like Luzardo could be interesting.

Keeping Varland around for 4-5 more years of control, particularly in a relief role, has some significant value. ‘Em Rod seems to be progressing pretty well.

No trade Twins like has the value Marlins want at this point…… Can’t just trade non performers……..am assuming there would be plenty of competitors around baseball looking to gain his services.

Luzardo, couple young guys they have now, along with both guys coming back from surgery gets them competitive from a pitching standpoint, as soon as ‘25.

[1985Fan]

Are the Twins willing to trade Lee? I think he’s tabbed to be the super utility guy that Castro is now. Castro is only signed this year. Falvine is counting on Lee to step into that role when Castro is gone next year. On paper, Lee fits perfectly; a switch hitter that has played all over the infield. The way Baldelli relies on Castro in his everyday lineup, replacing him is going to be important. They’ll have to consider other prospects in a deal for Luzardo. It does look like there is a position player logjam, so dealing from that surplus could be less painful. 
 

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Castro is gone next year

The Twins control Castro until the end of next season.

[Ely Sussman]

Quote

However, almost any organization acquiring his services will be better equipped to unlock his potential than the Marlins are.

I was fully with you until this part! C'mon, Ted, that's the one thing the Marlins HAVE done extremely well in recent years: unlock talented pitchers. Luzardo arrived to them 3 years ago at a career crossroads and they have turned him into a genuine No. 2/No. 3 starter. They even have another guy in their current rotation, Ryan Weathers, who is on a similar trajectory (though Weathers is doubtful to be on the block at this deadline).

Brooks Lee is a logical centerpiece in such a deal, but I think there would need to be a couple substantial additional pieces to outbid other interested teams.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I doubt Brooks Lee has more trade value than Jose Miranda right now. Lee and Gonzalez is definitely not getting it done. You'd have to toss in Festa at least. The Marlins aren't going to cash out on a pitcher without at least one quality pitching prospect in return.

You could get three Jose Mirandas for one Brooks Lee. Maybe even a 6 pack.

[cmoss84]

Okay. Sold.

2.5 years of prime cut SP. I wouldn't give up Jenkins...unless 1 for 1. 

We have the firepower in minors. We are a playoff team. Do it! 

[Fatbat]

The FO isnt going to trade a top prospect like lee or jenkins.  Maybe one or 2 of the top 20 but not a top 5 guy. 

[Walser]

Quote

The Twins don’t have the plethora of top-100 types that other organizations do, but they have a significant amount of depth on the farm, and parting with one blue-chip player could work.

They have the most top-100 prospects in the AL. Only the Cubs and Rockies have more. I'm not convinced Luzardo would be more valuable for the Twins than Lee or E-Rod, so they're off the table for me. Jenkins too, obviously, but I'd be fine parting with any other prospects.

[William K Johnson]

Twins have plenty to offer outside of Jenkins and Lee.    With a surplus of left hand hitters, even Larnach and/or Kiriloff should be on the table.   Julien and Miranda are both available as well.

[Eris]

Have the Twins won a series against a team with a winning record this year. I don’t think so. They are several position players away from being a playoff caliber team. Maybe internally some players will step up like last year. As currently constructed the team is more than one starting pitcher away from winning a playoff series and therefore I would be hesitant to make a deadline trade for a starting pitcher. 

[Joe Schmitt]

The Twins have won series against teams with winning records this year.  In fact they've won two four game series against such teams, going 3-1 against the Mariners and the Royals.  The Twins have played the third hardest strength of schedule in MLB thus far this year.  (The Guardians have played the easiest strength of schedule in the AL, BTW.) The notion that that the Twins have played an easy schedule, or that they only beat bad teams, is a myth.

[PatG]

From Twins side, I'd start with corner outfielder (Larnach or Walner, can we afford Em R?).  Then add a "near" major league starting pitcher (SWR or Varland).  Then add a low level mid-to-top prospect (one of the newly drafted K's, Keaschall...)

See if this would get it done.....

If I was the Marlins, I'd want these 3 and then another excellent lower tier

pitcher.

[Otaknam]

I have lost confidence in the FO’s ability to trade for injury free starting pitchers, as recent history has shown. That said, IF Lozardo can be had for some combination of Larnach or Wallner, Miranda or Lee or Julien and Raya ( who never gets to pitches more than 3 innings for some reason), or Varland and another lower level prospect, they should do it. Miami could get two guys with ML experience and another piece or two at the MiL level as they rebuilt. Win win.

Edited June 4, 2024 by Otaknam
Spelling

[MinnInPa]

knock it off ..Lee is not going anywhere. He is possibly a Face of the Franchise type player..and will be up in the Bigs this summer

[Ryan_K]

I say this as a former MN and now Miamian. Luzardo is healthy and good, look at his last 10 starts and is controllable for 2.5 years, the offer must exceed the Cease and Berrios trades.

I'd ask for Jenkins, if that's a no then I ask Lee and EROD, I could swap that for Lee  plus festa + raya plus soto, Also if there is anything MN would be open to moving Royce I'd love to hear --Marlins would love him, we miss Arraez. Also want Austin Martin as a throw in

[Ryan_K]

One quick follow up, the rest of the central needs pieces the Marlins have, so if Bendix plays his cards right he starts by trading Jazz and some other guys to Detroit and KC and Cleveland and put MN in a desperate spot to overpay in prospects --remember the TV situation twins have to put a good product together to get some ad Rev 

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

Are the Twins willing to trade Lee? I think he’s tabbed to be the super utility guy that Castro is now. Castro is only signed this year. Falvine is counting on Lee to step into that role when Castro is gone next year. On paper, Lee fits perfectly; a switch hitter that has played all over the infield. The way Baldelli relies on Castro in his everyday lineup, replacing him is going to be important. They’ll have to consider other prospects in a deal for Luzardo. It does look like there is a position player logjam, so dealing from that surplus could be less painful. 
 

Brooks Lee is not a "super utility guy." He's possibly a utility infielder, but he's not going to the outfield. And he hasn't played "all over the infield" in any meaningful way. He has 9 professional innings at 2B, and 67 at 3B compared to 1200 at SS. Brooks Lee does not replace Castro, he replaces Kyle Farmer. And hopefully does it this year.

He's an interesting trade piece, though. If the Marlins see him as an MLB ready SS he'd have really nice value going to them, but if they see him as an injury risk just coming off a herniated disc his value is going to be much lower. If he lights up St Paul for the next 2 months he'd have really good value on the market, but would also be a really nice reason to DFA Farmer if he doesn't get his stuff together and start performing.

[TopGunn#22]

Luzardo is JUST what the Twins need.  An All Star caliber SP who is LEFT-HANDED.  Getting him wouldn't be cheap but it would be worth it to see what the price of poker is.  Teams that PITCH are always in ball games.  Lopez, Luzardo and Ryan as a 1-2-3 in a future 7 or 5 game series would be exciting.

I'd like to see the Twins center a trade around Wallner or Julien.  Look, Brooks Lee is NOT the heir-apparent to be our UTILITY MAN !  He's being looked at a STARTER at a specific position.  It doesn't hurt that Lee would have the ability to play 2B, SS or even 3B.  But when he finally makes it to the majors, he's going to be a starter at a specific position.  

Correa is the SS for at least 5 more years.  Lewis will be the fixture at 3B as well.  That leaves 2B.  One of Lee or Julien is expendable for an All Star level pitcher.  Between Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner there is at least one corner OF type who will be by-passed by E-Rod or Jenkins (or Gabe Gonzalez for that matter).  

Having 2 and a half years of control over Luzardo is what makes this very intriguing.  The Twins would have Lopez-Ryan-Luzardo for the rest of this season, 2025 and 2026.  If all three are pitching at an All Star level throughout that time the trade would have paid off in spades.  

I would also love to find a way to off-load Vasquez in this deal as well.  Even if we agree to absorb a portion of his $10 million salary as well.  The Marlins have been interested in him in the past and they have the absolute WORST catching situation in major league baseball.  They may even take Vasquez WITHOUT any salary help they are so desperate for an actual major league catcher.  The problem with this though is that nobody at St. Paul has stepped up to make this possible, so including Vasquez is unlikely. 

How about Julien and Wallner for Luzardo?  Would Julien and Wallner merit a little something extra thrown in by Miami?