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After the dust settled on the best season the Minnesota Twins have had in decades, fans reasonably hoped that ownership would provide the means for Derek Falvey to add another top-of-the-rotation arm. Instead, in an offseason disrupted and constrained by a misbegotten payroll reduction, Falvey brought in only Anthony DeSclafani, who never touched the Target Field mound.
Looking to bolster the rotation for another postseason run and hoping to catch the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, the Twins will have to turn to the trade market instead. Miami Marlins starter Jesús Luzardo would fit the bill. Ken Rosenthal recently called the southpaw the most likely player to be traded at the deadline, and since Miami has already sent Luis Arráez packing, there is no reason to believe they’ll stop moving the rest of their assets any time soon.
Currently making $5.5 million through arbitration and under team control for another two seasons, the 26-year-old Luzardo is the exact type of cheap payroll guy that intrigues a front office working under a restrictive budget threshold. Of course, that means he’s going to cost significant prospect capital.
If Falvey isn’t going to be allowed to spend more on this roster, then he’ll have to target top talent by flipping prospects. An arm like Luzardo is certainly going to hurt from a return perspective, but having previously linked up with the Marlins for Pablo López and Steven Okert, maybe the Twins can find common ground with them again.
Walker Jenkins would be off the table for Minnesota, and it stands to reason that Emmanuel Rodríguez would be as well--though the Marlins might counter that, if Rodríguez is off the table, so is Luzardo. Brooks Lee is ranked higher than Rodríguez by most, and while his floor is probably the safest, his ceiling could be the lowest. That’s probably where the Marlins start, and it’s something the Twins could consider. Rather than lead with a Jenkins or Rodríguez, maybe the teams could agree on Lee and someone like Marco Raya, Gabriel González, or Brandon Winokur.
The Marlins aren’t close to competing, and by the time they are, Luzardo will be more expensive than they're ever willing to tolerate. The Twins don’t have the plethora of top-100 types that other organizations do, but they have a significant amount of depth on the farm, and parting with one blue-chip player could work.
How deep Falvey delves into conversations with Miami for Luzardo would depend on what the Twins believe he can be in the future. Similar to López, there have been some dazzling glimpses thus far in his career, but the track record is limited. Last season was the first time he threw more than 150 innings in a season, and injury concerns are a constant factor for him. Luzardo’s strikeout stuff has slowed some, dipping from 10.5 K/9 last year to 8.7 K/9 this season. However, almost any organization acquiring his services will be better equipped to unlock his potential than the Marlins are.
Even when the Twins were spending at the top of their means, they were reluctant to pay the going rates for top arms in free agency. Trading for these types of players is a way for the organization to level the playing field, and Luzardo could be another worth plucking from Miami.
If the Twins were going to explore a deal like this, what would you be willing to give up? Is there another arm you’d part with a bigger piece for, and if so, who is it?
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