Royals 11, Twins 0: Ober Struggles as Twins Fall Flat in Pursuit of Sweep

[Hans Birkeland]

Going for a season-opening sweep in Kansas City for a second straight year, the Twins instead fell behind early and let the mercurial Brady Singer settle into a groove in a blowout loss. Bailey Ober simply didn't have it, and the game was more notable for the debuts of depth pieces Austin Martin, Daniel Duarte, Kody Funderburk and Jay Jackson, as well as the brilliance of Bobby Witt Jr.

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Following a pair of wins in which the Twins were held in check by Royals starting pitchers, only to rally against the underbelly of the Kansas City bullpen, the Twins were up against on-again off-again functional pitcher Brady Singer. Minnesota turned to Bailey Ober in his season debut, coming off of a season in which he was effective, but in which workload concerns caused him to be, for lack of a better term, jerked around a bit. He features a new cutter this year, but it was a hanging change-up (or two, or three) that hurt him today.

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 1 1/3 IP 9 H, 8 ER 1 BB 1 K (55 P, 35 Strikes, 63.6%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.362), Ryan Jeffers (-.039), Kody Funderburk (-.028)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The game started (and ended) as if a "getaway day loss" was scheduled and circled on a bulletin board. In the first, Edouard Julien was out on one pitch, Alex Kirilloff was called out on two pitches (a pitch clock violation was called before the third), and Byron Buxton grounded out to end it. That would become a theme.

Ober was a trending name during Spring Training, his perpetual underratedness having a bit of a Streisand effect on his name in baseball circles. He has been consistent when healthy and has used his elite extension to do things to hitters other pitchers with similar raw arm strength simply can't. Increased velocity and the promise of a hard cutter made him a prime breakout candidate for baseball fans and bettors alike. Well, that's why they play the games.

Ober was in the zone in his half of the first, and facing a Royals squad with a lot of free swingers, that hurt him. Bobby Witt Jr., looking to cement his status as an ascendant superstar, tomahawked a high fastball (110 MPH EV) into left field for a single. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino blooped a single and Salvador Perez, mired in a concerning slump to start the year, got a hanging changeup that his declining bat speed had no problem depositing in the left-field stands.

The Twins' gameplan was to be aggressive against Singer, knowing he has struggled to develop a third pitch besides his fastball and slider, and needs to work ahead to be successful. He also has a propensity to be a tad emotional on the mound, so he has always been susceptible to an ambush. That led to a lot of outs early in the count for Twins hitters, who couldn't quite put the barrel on Singer's sinker.

Speaking of ambushing a starting pitcher, Ober gave up a second home run on a changeup, this time to light-hitting outfielder Kyle Isbel, in the second, and the fun wouldn't end there. Maikel García homered in the next at-bat on a middle-in fastball, and Witt nearly made it three in a row, settling for an electrifying triple off the wall in right-center. Perez then drove in Witt for the game's sixth run, After an M.J. Melendez double (homer in 11/30 ballparks) Ober's day was done.

Funderburk wasn't able to keep things in range, giving up a two-run single to Adam Frazier and bungling a flip from Carlos Santana at first that led to the ninth run of the game.

Only then was Austin Martin able to take his first major-league at-bat, which finishes up quite a rollercoaster for him since the start of spring training. First, there was buzz about him making the team out of camp, then the Twins traded for Manuel Margot, pushing Martin back to Triple-A to start the year. One day in, the baseball gods decided to flesh out the Greek tragedy of Royce Lewis's career even further, and Martin got his call-up after all. He made an appearance on Saturday as a pinch-runner, but was lifted for a pinch-hitter when his spot in the lineup came around.

Daniel Duarte also made his Twins debut, relieving Funderburk to start the fourth. His slider looked good, and he stayed in the zone, in defiance of his primary weakness in his career thus far.

From there, the game was mainly about seeing players make their debuts, and Witt's attempt at a cycle, which looked like a promising campaign after his homer in the third.

The Good:
Duarte looked pretty good and gave the Twins some needed length. He also struck out Witt on a nice slider as the shortstop was trying to complete the cycle. Matt Wallner got his first hit of the year, a ringing double behind in the count. Kirilloff continues to sting the ball, doubling today after game-altering plate appearances in each of the first two games.

Cole Sands got to pitch! That's usually not a good sign for a mop-up guy, but he spent long stretches of 2023 available but not getting into any games.

The Bad:
Ober wasn't fooling anyone, and his velocity was down just a tick, allowing the Royals to be aggressive and jump all over his fastball and change-up.

Julien saw four pitches over his first three at-bats combined. That's likely an aberration, but Ryan Jeffers looks lost at the plate, which might not be.

Actually, almost the entire lineup looked like they were ready to jump on a flight. The strike zone was massive, leading to quite a few generous strike calls (maybe Ober could have taken advantage of that..).

What’s Next: The Twins are off Monday, and head to Milwaukee for a two-game series against the Brewers starting Tuesday, Louie Varland (5-5, 4.40 ERA in 2023) makes his season debut opposing former Royal Jakob Junis (4-3, 3.87 ERA in 2023). Junis has operated as a swingman for the Giants since leaving Kansas City. He has flashed some effective breaking stuff in his career, but is only in the Milwaukee rotation because of injuries and the departure of Corbin Burnes.

Varland, like Ober, had some helium this Spring. Keys for him will be his effectiveness against righties (reverse splits have been an issue) and his ability to limit the home run.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	THU	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Alcala	0	10	0	0	0	10
Duarte	0	0	31	0	0	31
Funderburk	0	0	34	0	0	34
Jackson	0	0	13	0	0	13
Jax	18	12	0	0	0	30
Okert	0	16	0	0	0	16
Sands	0	0	22	0	0	22
Stewart	17	22	0	0	0	39

 

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[ashbury]

This one is in the running for worst game of the season so far.

[PDX Twin]

Twins' offense has looked pathetic all spring. Not much change when the season started.

[UK Twin]

The only vaguely positive thing I can say about this is that at least Rocco had the sense to pull Buxton and Correa out of the game early. But he can be blamed for letting the game get away so early in the first place. Should have pulled Ober after the 2 HR's in the second inning - it was clear he didn't have command of his pitches. 5-0 down after 2 innings is still a winnable game. 9-0 isn't. 

[CRF]

Fall flat? They got absolutely waxed! Ober was putrid, and the bats went to sleep. Get this stuff out of their system now. 

[LewFordLives]

They need another starter. People are putting too much faith in Ober. He has stretches where he's brilliant and then can go a month where he can't get anyone out. Paddack and Varland are also big question marks.

[Guest]

I’m going to choose to look on the bright side, and I say this with no malice intended. I am glad that was Austin Martin banging against the outfield fence.

It seems like get away games were a problem last year too. Oh well, try again next game.

[chinmusic]

56 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This one is in the running for worst game of the season so far.

we've only just begun...apologies to the Carpenters

 

 

[jkcarew]

Spahn and Sain then pray for rain??

 

Lopez and Ryan then lots of cry'in.

(I hope it never catches on.)

[RpR]

1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

Twins' offense has looked pathetic all spring. Not much change when the season started.

Maybe they still think it is Spring Training and the games are meaningless. 😅

[RpR]

[SotaSports in NM]

It's a tiny bit concerning to see the offense's strikeout numbers thus far ( I hate myself for even typing that after only 3 games), because I was really looking forward to addition by subtraction in that regard without Gallo and MAT, along with better lineup health. It is a good point, however, that the gameplay today was to be aggressive. 

[Peter]

Ugly game-it’s going to happen- 2-1 to start season, I’ll take it-royals are better improved team from last year. On to Milwaukee 

[SotaSports in NM]

I wasn't able to watch the game today (screw you MLBTV and your technical difficulties). How did Martin's at-bats look today? Sounds like Jeffers' were even worse than the first two games? 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

[jmlease1]

Pretty bad game al the way around. Ober just didn't have it today, couldn't spot his pitches where he needed them and wasn't fooling anyone. But it's one game, let's not lose our minds over it. Which is more likely: Ober had a bad day, or the guy with a career 116 ERA+ can't pitch any longer at age 28?

I'm disappointed at the offense; the Twins really flailed out there today and made a decent pitcher look like an ace. They're going to have to do better, but they really looked like they had already left for MN.

It's annoying because KC isn't a very good team, but even a bad team like KC is going to win games

[Brandon27]

Probably not a good idea have Martin playing the outfield 

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, Brandon27 said:

Probably not a good idea have Martin playing the outfield 

why? because he's not Buxton? He didn't come up with the incredible catches today, but I don't think that would have saved us. He's a good OF, but those catches against the wall weren't run of the mill.

[RpR]

18 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

why? because he's not Buxton?

Yes, it is as simple as that.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, UK Twin said:

The only vaguely positive thing I can say about this is that at least Rocco had the sense to pull Buxton and Correa out of the game early. But he can be blamed for letting the game get away so early in the first place. Should have pulled Ober after the 2 HR's in the second inning - it was clear he didn't have command of his pitches. 5-0 down after 2 innings is still a winnable game. 9-0 isn't. 

If the win probability chart means anything, the second homer dropped the likelihood down to 8.8 percent.

Add in that Singer had looked really sharp through two innings and that the Twins had used their three highest-leverage relievers yesterday, and the real likelihood was probably somewhat less. 

[Hrbowski]

"He also has a propensity to be a tad emotional on the mound, so he has always been susceptible to an ambush." This statement is not rooted in reality. Please...

[Old Crow]

Face it, they sucked today pitching, fielding, everything.  Lets get over it there are till 159 games left to play.

[Shaitan]

It's weird how many people are blaming the offense for this loss. They gave up 11 runs.

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

It's weird how many people are blaming the offense for this loss. They gave up 11 runs.

IF they gave up ONE run, they would have lost still looking like they want to be strike out leader in 2024.

[rv78]

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

The only vaguely positive thing I can say about this is that at least Rocco had the sense to pull Buxton and Correa out of the game early.

Really? That's like throwing in the towel and giving up, NO? That's like saying, well the Royals can score 10 runs in 3 innings but we can't so...., I give. You win. Why not just walk off the field and say we forfeit. Save your bullpen pitchers for another game. No point in showing any confidence in your players to do the same that has just been done to you. Rocco loves to give games away. Has always done it, always will. Late pulling a pitcher and early pulling, supposedly, your best hitters. Evidently when you are down 10 runs after 3 innings there just isn't enough game left to make a comeback. Why try? Off day last Friday another one Monday. Isn't like they needed the rest. Say it continually, Rocco doesn't play his best players as much as he should. If you're scared their going to get hurt why play them at all? Poor Manager, managing poorly. 

[Unwinder]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Pretty bad game al the way around. Ober just didn't have it today, couldn't spot his pitches where he needed them and wasn't fooling anyone. But it's one game, let's not lose our minds over it. Which is more likely: Ober had a bad day, or the guy with a career 116 ERA+ can't pitch any longer at age 28?

Totally speculative paranoia on my part but I'm more afraid of injury than I am of Ober being plain old washed.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

why? because he's not Buxton? He didn't come up with the incredible catches today, but I don't think that would have saved us. 

Incredible catches? The triple from Witt would have been caught by most MLB CFers. 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

It's weird how many people are blaming the offense for this loss. They gave up 11 runs.

Speaking only for myself, I'm not blaming thr offense for giving up 11 runs today. However, I think it's fair to have concerns with the offense. 

[mikelink45]

Time to reprint the last three essays on TD about Ober. Games like this will happen but the third game of the season against KC and it still feels bad. 

[Pdxtwins]

I will take 2 out of 3 with a healthy Buxton and Correa every series.