Royals 11, Twins 0: Ober Struggles as Twins Fall Flat in Pursuit of Sweep

Following a pair of wins in which the Twins were held in check by Royals starting pitchers, only to rally against the underbelly of the Kansas City bullpen, the Twins were up against on-again off-again functional pitcher Brady Singer. Minnesota turned to Bailey Ober in his season debut, coming off of a season in which he was effective, but in which workload concerns caused him to be, for lack of a better term, jerked around a bit. He features a new cutter this year, but it was a hanging change-up (or two, or three) that hurt him today.

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 1 1/3 IP 9 H, 8 ER 1 BB 1 K (55 P, 35 Strikes, 63.6%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.362), Ryan Jeffers (-.039), Kody Funderburk (-.028)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The game started (and ended) as if a "getaway day loss" was scheduled and circled on a bulletin board. In the first, Edouard Julien was out on one pitch, Alex Kirilloff was called out on two pitches (a pitch clock violation was called before the third), and Byron Buxton grounded out to end it. That would become a theme.

Ober was a trending name during Spring Training, his perpetual underratedness having a bit of a Streisand effect on his name in baseball circles. He has been consistent when healthy and has used his elite extension to do things to hitters other pitchers with similar raw arm strength simply can't. Increased velocity and the promise of a hard cutter made him a prime breakout candidate for baseball fans and bettors alike. Well, that's why they play the games.

Ober was in the zone in his half of the first, and facing a Royals squad with a lot of free swingers, that hurt him. Bobby Witt Jr., looking to cement his status as an ascendant superstar, tomahawked a high fastball (110 MPH EV) into left field for a single. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino blooped a single and Salvador Perez, mired in a concerning slump to start the year, got a hanging changeup that his declining bat speed had no problem depositing in the left-field stands.

The Twins' gameplan was to be aggressive against Singer, knowing he has struggled to develop a third pitch besides his fastball and slider, and needs to work ahead to be successful. He also has a propensity to be a tad emotional on the mound, so he has always been susceptible to an ambush. That led to a lot of outs early in the count for Twins hitters, who couldn't quite put the barrel on Singer's sinker.

Speaking of ambushing a starting pitcher, Ober gave up a second home run on a changeup, this time to light-hitting outfielder Kyle Isbel, in the second, and the fun wouldn't end there. Maikel García homered in the next at-bat on a middle-in fastball, and Witt nearly made it three in a row, settling for an electrifying triple off the wall in right-center. Perez then drove in Witt for the game's sixth run, After an M.J. Melendez double (homer in 11/30 ballparks) Ober's day was done.

Funderburk wasn't able to keep things in range, giving up a two-run single to Adam Frazier and bungling a flip from Carlos Santana at first that led to the ninth run of the game.

Only then was Austin Martin able to take his first major-league at-bat, which finishes up quite a rollercoaster for him since the start of spring training. First, there was buzz about him making the team out of camp, then the Twins traded for Manuel Margot, pushing Martin back to Triple-A to start the year. One day in, the baseball gods decided to flesh out the Greek tragedy of Royce Lewis's career even further, and Martin got his call-up after all. He made an appearance on Saturday as a pinch-runner, but was lifted for a pinch-hitter when his spot in the lineup came around.

Daniel Duarte also made his Twins debut, relieving Funderburk to start the fourth. His slider looked good, and he stayed in the zone, in defiance of his primary weakness in his career thus far.

From there, the game was mainly about seeing players make their debuts, and Witt's attempt at a cycle, which looked like a promising campaign after his homer in the third.

The Good:
Duarte looked pretty good and gave the Twins some needed length. He also struck out Witt on a nice slider as the shortstop was trying to complete the cycle. Matt Wallner got his first hit of the year, a ringing double behind in the count. Kirilloff continues to sting the ball, doubling today after game-altering plate appearances in each of the first two games.

Cole Sands got to pitch! That's usually not a good sign for a mop-up guy, but he spent long stretches of 2023 available but not getting into any games.

The Bad:
Ober wasn't fooling anyone, and his velocity was down just a tick, allowing the Royals to be aggressive and jump all over his fastball and change-up.

Julien saw four pitches over his first three at-bats combined. That's likely an aberration, but Ryan Jeffers looks lost at the plate, which might not be.

Actually, almost the entire lineup looked like they were ready to jump on a flight. The strike zone was massive, leading to quite a few generous strike calls (maybe Ober could have taken advantage of that..).

What’s Next: The Twins are off Monday, and head to Milwaukee for a two-game series against the Brewers starting Tuesday, Louie Varland (5-5, 4.40 ERA in 2023) makes his season debut opposing former Royal Jakob Junis (4-3, 3.87 ERA in 2023). Junis has operated as a swingman for the Giants since leaving Kansas City. He has flashed some effective breaking stuff in his career, but is only in the Milwaukee rotation because of injuries and the departure of Corbin Burnes.

Varland, like Ober, had some helium this Spring. Keys for him will be his effectiveness against righties (reverse splits have been an issue) and his ability to limit the home run.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: