Should We Be Encouraged by José Miranda's Spring?

[Cody Pirkl]

Given the surface-level numbers he's putting up, José Miranda appears to be having a resurgent spring training. Should we be as encouraged as his slash line suggests?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

After a lost 2023 season, José Miranda appears to be healthy again, and he should probably be a bigger topic of conversation for 2024. He’s been passed up by several players at multiple positions, and is almost guaranteed to begin the season at Triple-A. Should his spring performance be drumming up more excitement?

Miranda has been one of the Twins' best hitters this spring, as his OPS currently sits near 1.000. In addition to piling up the hits, he’s even walked a handful of times. On the surface, it appears he’s locked in at the plate like we’ve seen him be at times in his career. Spring training stats always need to be taken with a grain of salt, but Miranda’s success so far should be viewed with particularly profound skepticism.

Miranda has never been known for scalding the baseball. Even in 2022, when his performance made him a hopeful future piece of the offense, his average exit velocity of 89.3 miles per hour was only 55th percentile. Last year's struggles coincided with a shoulder injury, which could explain the slight drop to 87.9 mph. 

The hope was that Miranda would build off that middling number to some degree, but after a lost 2023 season, the numbers this spring aren’t looking all that promising.

The small sample size is the key consideration here, as he could raise his average quite a bit with even one ball screaming off his barrel. Still, it would be nice to see some signs that the shoulder is healthy and that Miranda can rip into mistake pitches. His average exit velocity this spring is a paltry 83.6 MPH, and his 90th-percentile value is 100.3. A hitter showing useful big-league power is at least five miles per hour higher in each of those categories.

This is reflected in his slash line. His OPS, which may bring hope on the surface, is buoyed by his on-base percentage, which is currently higher than his slugging. Of his six hits, one slicing double to the opposite field is the only one that’s gone for extra bases. His slugging so far reflects what we see in the exit velocity: This brief success isn’t reminiscent of the 2022 iteration of Miranda, who looked like he could carve out a long-term role.

Of course, Miranda’s performance this spring was unlikely to have any real bearing on where he began his season, but a handful of truly well-hit balls would be encouraging. Of course, we can expect Miranda to get regular playing time in St. Paul, where the data will quickly outweigh his limited spring training appearances. Hopefully, the success we’re currently seeing leads to a more believable version in the hitter-friendly confines of CHS field.

It’s great to see Miranda finding the grass with his hits again, even if it isn’t the most sustainable form of success right now. If he can come out of the spring healthy and ready to play an everyday role, it has to be considered a victory. Hopefully, some version of the 2022, extra-base-hit machine Miranda was will follow.

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[TwinsDr2021]

spring training 23 - .325/.400/.825 = 1.225 OPS in 40 at bats he hit 5 doubles and 5 homers, with only 3 K's.

In the last home spring training game in 23 (3/27) (which was also his last spring training game) he played 3B for 6 innings, went 3/4, was declared healthy enough to be the Twins starting 3B for the season.

I don't buy that it was his only his injury that caused the horrible 23 season and for me he has quite a bit to prove.

 

[mikelink45]

 I like Miranda and hope this spring propels him to high draft status so he can have a chance to be a Rooker, Raley, Wells, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand Littell, Wade, or Cano, 

[Major League Ready]

Sure we should be encouraged and if he puts together a couple 1.000 OPS months in AAA we can be even more encouraged but he has to sustain this level of performance for a while to prove he belongs on the ML club.

[wsnydes]

I wouldn't necessarily be discouraged if he wasn't putting up numbers, but I guess that I'd rather see him put up numbers in spring than not.  So, yes, it's encouraging but that includes a giant disclaimer that I need to see him do more of it before I get too excited.

[JD-TWINS]

Encouraged - yes.

Contact & base hits are always a good thing. Analyzing every base hit is tedious & fortune is part of a good average. He needs to at least be a doubles hitter with occasional power to play either corner infield spot for very long. Somewhat of a RH hitting Kirilloff?

He has to play better 1B & that will be a big part of AAA games/development this year. My assumption is that the club will play him at 3B nearly 25% of the time or more just to keep trade value (versatility) higher.

With a good season he may be the other side of a platoon at 1B with Kirilloff in ‘25?

I think he gets traded as a depth guy for another organization. It seems to me the next few years of the Twin’s rosters will have higher expectations.

[Doctor Gast]

As long as he's not striking out I'm encouraged. He has the power potential that should return in time. We need a strong RH bat to platoon at 1B/DH he could be it. Also, there are teams like MIA that'd like some offense at those positions.

[Doctor Wu]

Yes, a pretty good spring for Miranda so far, but as others have stated, he is most likely slated for AAA to start the season, and hopefully the hits continue to fall, and the Twins will either call him up in a month or two (depending on who else ends up on the IL), or possibly trade him to a team like Oakland that is willing to take a chance on his power. As MikeLink suggested, he could end up getting playing time for another team and put up numbers like Rooker, Steer or Raley. But hey, it's baseball and the fun part is not knowing what happens next. 

[Trov]

It is always good to look at the underlying numbers to see if it is likely to sustain the counting numbers.  It seems like that is unlikely for Miranda, unless he starts finding some barrels.  I am not one that feels exit velo is anything more than to test to see if the hits seem to be more luck than not.  Keep in mind exit velo does not equal hits, just the harder you hit it the more likely you get a hit.  However, guys like Arraez was attacked for his lack of exit velo despite his very high average, because he hit a ton of line drives and would hit where the defenders were not, despite not being hit super hard. 

Miranda though is a guy that will need to hit extra base hits to be valuable as he never struck me as a super high average guy.  I am not sold on him as a MLB player.  Hopefully he will tear up AAA and be a call up when needed, or possible trade chip, but if he has another poor year at AAA he will be DFA when a 40 man spot is needed. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Somewhat of a RH hitting Kirilloff?

That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially since they would often be platoon partners at 1B or DH. I'd love a couple guys that have good contact and discipline, and just enough power to make pitchers nibble.

With the exit velocity concerns, now we have something to watch for to see if a callup is warranted.

[TopGunn#22]

To do well is never a bad thing.  That said, he will start at St. Paul, where he has previously "raked" and if he continues to hit well, (again, that is not a bad thing), he could see himself back on the big league roster if needed.  I don't think he has a long-term future with the Twins because he's been surpassed by better players at the positions he would play.  I could see him being a trade chip to better the team in another area.  

[JD-TWINS]

33 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially since they would often be platoon partners at 1B or DH. I'd love a couple guys that have good contact and discipline, and just enough power to make pitchers nibble.

With the exit velocity concerns, now we have something to watch for to see if a callup is warranted.

1st paragraph - check!

A call up seems to be a real stretch though……unless Santana, specifically, gets hurt I can’t imagine Miranda in ‘24. Not to doom him, Santana hasn’t missed extended time since 2014.

[ToddlerHarmon]

21 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A call up seems to be a real stretch though……unless Santana, specifically, gets hurt I can’t imagine Miranda in ‘24. Not to doom him, Santana hasn’t missed extended time since 2014.

It's also possible Santana's performance doesn't keep his roster spot all year. Last year, he may not have missed time, but he didn't have great stats for a 1B/DH as he starts to show his age

[farmerguychris]

Of course - how could you not be encouraged.  A year ago we had him penciled in as our long term 3rd base solution - it he can get back to where he was we'll be a better team for it.

[Otaknam]

Hitting the ball hard is important, but getting hits is more important than speed off the barrel of the bat. Arraez comes to mind as an example. Let’s hope Miranda has an excellent season.

[Parfigliano]

37 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

It's also possible Santana's performance doesn't keep his roster spot all year. Last year, he may not have missed time, but he didn't have great stats for a 1B/DH as he starts to show his age

When Santana falters (he will) hopefully the FO will bring up Miranda ASAP and not stick with the veteran well past his sell by date.

[bean5302]

Miranda doesn't typically have huge splits and his 2022 splits against right handers was almost the same as Kirilloff's career splits against them. No need to platoon Miranda. He'll either get it done every day or he won't be able to make it work at all.

That aside, it's encouraging to see Miranda hitting and saying he's 100%. Folks expecting Miranda will ever be a prototypical power hitter are probably in for a rude awakening. Miranda's a 18 HR guy in a full season. He'll have to make his way forward being a higher average, line drive hitter with medium power. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Miranda is blocked. By a 38 y/o with one average season in the past 3 or 4 seasons. I'm encouraged by his spring, and I'm sure he is too.

[FlyingFinn]

Miranda's job in 2024 is to crush the ball and improve his defense with the Saints. He needs to be doing that so he gets the call if an injury creates an opportunity with the Twins. When Miranda was called up, supposedly his defense was okay to below average. With the Twins, it was bad and didn't improve (unlike Julien who was supposedly bad on defense, showed he was bad on defense with the Twins at first and then improved as 2023 went on). Without injuries on the Twins, Miranda is getting ready for 2025, to force the Twins to open a spot for him because of his hitting and improvement on defense.

[IaBeanCounter]

I believe that the only current roster position open is outfield between Larnach and Wallner, with Wallner having a poor ST.  Miranda is destined for St. Paul.  However, I think Miranda has gotten somewhat of a bad rap for his defensive abilities.  I looked at his 2022 OAA and he was a -4.  He was -3 at 2nd base, which was included with his 1st base summary.  I am wondering if some of this is shift related, that has been mitigated by the change of in the shift rules.   

[jkcarew]

He’s not going to turn into Luis Arraez. And will need XBH/HR’s to provide value...especially as a 1B/DH. Nice that he’s been putting the ball in play…but that’s not really been his issue. Not encouraging…at this early stage, I’d just call this ‘interesting information’.

 

[Twins GFP]

Cautiously optimistic?
 

Let's see what happens when the season starts and things matter.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

He’s not going to turn into Luis Arraez. And will need XBH/HR’s to provide value...especially as a 1B/DH. Nice that he’s been putting the ball in play…but that’s not really been his issue. Not encouraging…at this early stage, I’d just call this ‘interesting information’.

 

Luis Arraez wasn’t expected to turn into Luis Arraez. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Let's see what happens when the season starts and things matter.

The tag line for every topic we bother to discuss here.

[jkcarew]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Luis Arraez wasn’t expected to turn into Luis Arraez. 

Well, no…and yes. He’s always been an extreme high BA guy with elite bat control throughout the minors. Not expected to have THIS level of success with it at the MLB level, no…but it’s always been his DNA.

Miranda’s never been that guy, good but nowhere near Arraez’s bat-to-ball skill…has to have some SLG to his game.

[Shaitan]

Getting timing back is hard for any hitter, not to mention hitters who essentially missed a full year. Kudos to Miranda.

He's on the 40. He'll get his chance.

[Rosterman]

Nice depth to have, although if he goes to St. Paul I would play him more often than not at first base. But the Twins also have Severino on the prospect bubble. Big year for both of them and where they will be playing come 2025.

Again, though, with Wallner striking out 50% of the time, and Kirilloff able to play the outfield...unless you trust Larnach, why not keep Miranda then and move Kirilloff fulltime to the outfield with Margot as the backup. Will be interesting to see how the Twins handle the one battle spot on the bench.

 

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Nice depth to have, although if he goes to St. Paul I would play him more often than not at first base. But the Twins also have Severino on the prospect bubble. Big year for both of them and where they will be playing come 2025.

Again, though, with Wallner striking out 50% of the time, and Kirilloff able to play the outfield...unless you trust Larnach, why not keep Miranda then and move Kirilloff fulltime to the outfield with Margot as the backup. Will be interesting to see how the Twins handle the one battle spot on the bench.

 

I don't think there is a position battle--Wallner LF, Larnach and Miranda to St. Paul--but that doesn't mean a change won't happen until the All-Star break or anything like that. I mentioned this on another thread, if Wallner continues to flounder, is it possible that Kirilloff becomes the principal left fielder and Lee is inserted as the 2b, with Julien moving to DH? In other years (IMHO), Martin, Lee, Miranda and Larnach (or at least three of the four) would go north out of Spring Training. For the second year in a row, the Twins added depth pieces that will minimize the need to "throw the young guys in the fire", but it also means the young guys need to wait or force their way to the majors by being too good for Triple A.

[Fatbat]

He is working his way back to MLB. He will be back when he is needed.