Assessing the Twins' Trade of Jorge Polanco

[Ted Schwerzler]

All offseason, there has been a focus on the Minnesota Twins making a move, including one of their longest-tenured players. It took a lot of time, but with January running out, Jorge Polanco was shipped to the Seattle Mariners for a package of four players.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

While Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have been the source of trade talks for months, things started to become clearer when Polanco was a late subtraction from the TwinsFest lineup over the weekend. Maybe that was unrelated in actuality, but ultimately, it foreshadowed a moment that felt bittersweetly inevitable.

Having been in the organization since he was 16 and playing more than 1,400 games across all levels, Polanco heads to a new team for the first time in his career. Seattle is taking on his $10.5-million salary, and will be on the hook for a $750,000 buyout in 2025 unless they pick up his $12-million option. That's a perfectly palatable salary for a player like Polanco, though, and if he has a solid season, it's likely they'll retain him at that slightly higher rate.

Minnesota moving Polanco is relatively straightforward. Injuries and shifting team needs shifted the bulk of the second base playing time to Edouard Julien last season, and Minnesota has positional depth in the form of Royce Lewis, Kyle Farmer, and prospect Brooks Lee. For a team we know to be scaling back payroll relative to the last two seasons, getting their veteran leader's contract off the books helps.

In return, the Twins fill two immediate needs on the pitching side of the roster. Anthony DeSclafani went to the Mariners as part of the Robbie Ray deal with the San Francisco Giants. He won’t fill the hole Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda left in Rocco Baldelli’s options box, but he should fit as a fourth or fifth rotation option alongside Chris Paddack.

The past two seasons were not good with the Giants, and the former Reds pitcher posted a 5.16 ERA while failing to stay healthy and pitching just a total of 118 2/3 innings. His first season in the Bay Area (in 2021) resulted in a 3.17 ERA across 167 2/3 innings, though, and he posted career-low H/9 (7.6) and HR/9 (1.0). DeSclafani isn’t Dylan Bundy or J.A. Happ, but he’s probably an arm to pair with Paddack in hopes of the two contributing something like 250 total innings to shore up the rotation.

Beyond DeSclafani, the other 26-man man addition comes in the form of Justin Topa. Having had brief stints with the Brewers three of the past four seasons, Topa got consistent run with the Mariners in 2023. Across 69 innings, he posted a 2.61 ERA with a 3.15 FIP. He doesn’t give up homers and strikes out plenty, but the ground ball profile sets him apart from Minnesota’s arms as a whole. Topa sits 95 mph with his sinker and throws it almost 50% of the time. The downward movement of the offering has resulted in ground ball rates north of 56%. He should have a better chance to make that usable than Dylan Floro did a year ago.

The two-for-one big league nature of the deal fills the Twins 40-man roster, but they also picked up a pair of prospects in the deal. The most notable is Gabriel Gonzalez, whom MLB Pipeline has ranked as the 79th overall prospect. He will slot into the Minnesota ranks just behind Walker Jenkins, Lee, and Emmanuel Rodriguez on that list, and he'll be a late, high insert into our Twins Daily Top Prospects countdown, which began in earnest Monday. He reached High A last season as just a 19-year-old, and should be expected to start with Cedar Rapids this season. Adding an additional top-100 prospect helps to bolster the Twins farm as a whole and makes arms like Marco Raya and David Festa even better depth pieces.

The other prospect coming back to the Twins is right-handed pitcher Darren Bowen. He should fit into the top 20 organizationally and showed well during his professional debut last season. After being taken in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB Draft, Bowen pitched all of 2023 at Low A and worked as a starter, with a 3.88 ERA. The strikeouts were impressive, and while he walked too many, he gave up just two homers across 55 2/3 innings. As an upside lottery ticket, you could do a lot worse.

Beyond just the players involved, Seattle is sending the Twins cash, which will offset a portion of DeSclafani’s $12-million salary. They are getting the initial $6 million that San Francisco sent to the Mariners, and Ryan Divish is reporting that Minnesota will also receive additional funds. Dan Hayes has confirmed that amount to be another $2 million. This more than halves the dollars the Twins are on the hook for with DeSclafani, paying him just $4 million and pushing their current payroll outlay to around $115 million.

As things stand, the major-league roster sees a few players shuffle because of the deal. If there was any doubt that Julien would be the Opening Day second baseman, that should be gone. Kyle Farmer also appears likelier to stick on the team as a utility type. The designated hitter spot is wide open, and plenty of players should expect to be rotated through it this season--assuming the money saved here isn't repurposed to land a slugger who fills that very role, which might not be a safe assumption.

Minnesota still needs an impact arm addition for the rotation, but that may be something Falvey feels can wait until the summer, with the more immediate need on the positional side. He has suggested that the savings from the deal will be reallocated into the roster, and with something like $10-15 million yet to be spent, there should be an opportunity to find a difference maker no matter what position they play. Regardless, the five now are set to include Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Paddack, and DeSclafani. That could mean Minnesota likes what they saw out of Louie Varland in relief too much to remove him from that role, or that they intend to stash him in St. Paul until an opening in the rotation presents itself, as they did with Ober last spring. Varland is still eligible to be optioned to the minors, and it would be a minor shock if he didn't yo-yo at least once or twice in 2024.

Keeping Varland working out of the pen may differ from what he wanted to do, but he can emerge as a high-leverage option throughout a full season. Topa also joins that group, and although he was a late-bloomer, there should be no reason to think he won’t have a spot on Opening Day--though he's also optionable, so flexibility rules again. Kody Funderburk and Jorge Alcalá still have options, so they, too, fit into a collection of arms who will hover on the fringe of the roster.

The Twins arguably dealt the best player in the deal. At 30 years old and having last been fully healthy in 2021, it’s a tough bet to bank on Polanco being available. Minnesota also has plenty of depth on the dirt, making him expendable. In doing this deal with the Mariners, Falvey found a way to get maximal value in return. Picking up a top-100 prospect and a pair of 26-man contributors is nimble work, even if it creates a roster crunch when they want to do anything else. The downside is that DeSclafani doesn’t move the bar for the type of pitcher Minnesota still needs, and Topa may push out a similarly usable reliever.

With the payroll lower than where it was before the trade, the Twins have created further opportunities for themselves. How they use that in the future remains to be seen. What are your thoughts on the trade and how it sets them up for the rest of the offseason?

View full article

[Boswell]

I had been thinking that Polanco-to-the-Mariners for pitching was a likely outcome.  Good to hear that they had been tracking him for several years and were willing to deal a nice package of players plus cash. 
 

I’m optimistic that this trade will work out very well for us over the next 3-5 years.  It’s still essential that we acquire a  high-quality starter at some point in 2024!

[GNess]

Teams have to give something of value to get something of value. Hate to see Polo move on, but I think this is a solid trade. A top 100 prospect in Gonzalez seems especially intriguing. The two MLB level pitchers add to the depth in the rotation and bullpen. Plus, a bonus prospect pitcher with some upside as a throw-in. 

That's a pretty nice haul for two seasons of Polo..

[Mike Sixel]

If they spend the money well, they get a good player, a good RP, a fifth starter, a good prospect, and a flyer prospect..... I'm failing to see this as anything but good, assuming they spend the money well. 

[jimbo92107]

Sad to see Polanco go, he was a fan favorite, a serious hustling player. I wish him luck in his new home.

[gunnarthor]

They got a top 100 prospect, a potentially useful bullpen arm, and junk for Polanco while saving money. This feels (both good and bad) like a pretty Twinsy-trade. I like that it frees up space. The Twins pitching plan seems to be throw stuff at wall, see what sticks and this gives them some more stuff to throw. Gonzalez has some flags - might be too aggressive and not walk enough - but he's the type of young bat we need more of. So I hope he works out.

[chpettit19]

MLBtraderumors has the Twins banking an extra 5.25 mil on this deal so I'm not sure the cash is all that useful unless they're planning on going above where they were. Gonzalez is top-100 on 1 list, but is he on any others? Fangraphs had him at 40+ FV so we'll see if they've changed their mind on him. Bowen wasn't in the top 30 for Seattle but he's going to be top 20 for the Twins? Not buying that at all. 

In a vacuum I think this is fair value for Polanco. I want nothing to do with DeSclafani types on the Twins rotation anymore, but such is life. I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. Gonzalez has some very nice reviews on his bat to ball skills, but is apparently the polar opposite of Emma and swings at everything. Probably why he wasn't good after his promotion to A+ ball, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements they can make there. They got Miranda to cut down his swing crazy approach so hopefully they can do it again. Bowen is a likely reliever flier so we'll see there. Overall it's a solid return for 2 years of Polanco with his recent injuries. 

That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.

[Otwins]

Good thing Twins received money back in the trade because I think it is very unlikely that DeSclafani finishes the year pitching for the Twins. Look at the Twins track record in trading for Reds/Giants pitchers.  Over/under on Tommy John surgery is June 1st. Overall I think this is a good trade for both teams. Twins needed the pitching depth plus a couple prospects and should be able to add one more right-handed hitter now that they have at least 5 million to work with. Seattle gets my favorite Twin who will fill their hole at 2B and bat in the top part of their order against either right or left handed pitchers. Like the old Miller Lite commercials - I feel very strongly both ways

 

[Nashvilletwin]

51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

MLBtraderumors has the Twins banking an extra 5.25 mil on this deal so I'm not sure the cash is all that useful unless they're planning on going above where they were. Gonzalez is top-100 on 1 list, but is he on any others? Fangraphs had him at 40+ FV so we'll see if they've changed their mind on him. Bowen wasn't in the top 30 for Seattle but he's going to be top 20 for the Twins? Not buying that at all. 

In a vacuum I think this is fair value for Polanco. I want nothing to do with DeSclafani types on the Twins rotation anymore, but such is life. I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. Gonzalez has some very nice reviews on his bat to ball skills, but is apparently the polar opposite of Emma and swings at everything. Probably why he wasn't good after his promotion to A+ ball, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements they can make there. They got Miranda to cut down his swing crazy approach so hopefully they can do it again. Bowen is a likely reliever flier so we'll see there. Overall it's a solid return for 2 years of Polanco with his recent injuries. 

That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.

This morning I posted that I really liked our projected starting lineup in which I had the switch hitting Polanco as the DH in the three hole.

Having said that, I’m a little more optimistic about this trade for a couple of reasons:

1. I’m a huge proponent of a shut down pen.  Topa is solid with high leverage capabilities. But it’s just not Topa this deal adds to the pen: it’s Varland too.  Our 7 - 9 inning pen options are now running six pitchers deep. On paper, this is our most solid pen entering a season in a very long time.  That’s huge. Just ask the Astros.

2. Ultimately we are paying about $2MM for DeSclafini.  Were we really going to find a better fifth starter for that amount?  If he can give us 25 starts of 5-6 innings (135-140 innings) with a 4.50 or so ERA, coupled with our new pen depth, we will win more than 50% of his starts. He doesn’t need to be better than that.

3. Let’s face it, we are short RH outfielders in the system.  We just added a top 100 or so prospect to our stable,  This hedges out Rodriguez a bit and adds quality depth where it is badly needed.  Moreover, it’s another trade chip that, depending on how his 2024 goes, could accrue value.

4. I’m not sleeping on Bowen as a potential MLB reliever.  Sure, he’s not the straw stirring this drink, but there is now another very, very live arm in our system. You can never have enough live arms.

5. The extra $5MM+ cash - for our franchise in 2024 - is nothing to sneeze at.  It may not seem like much, but let’s see how it’s ultimately deployed. Who knows, maybe just having the extra cash available gets the FO and ownership more comfortable going over reported target payroll levels.  For example, maybe there is a player out there who at $10-$20MM was just too expensive, but maybe now can be made to fit with the extra cash.

6. Sadly, the DH replacement solution for a HEALTHY Polanco is not as straightforward.  This point is valid. More thought is required, but I think Buxton will be filling that DH role quite a bit anyway with Castro, Gordon or Martin filling in in CF. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lee up fairly soon playing some 2B with Kiriloff and Julien able to fill in at 1B and DH.

[h2oface]

Topa (is that a typo?) was 10 years, count 'em, 10 years in the minors. 1 year, that's right, 1 year in the show, at 32, and that is what is the best part of the deal to help in 2024? I guess he relieved well 3 months more than Jorge Lopez, and we all know how that turned out. That is what we are banking on to be reliable? This deal is nothing but hope and dreams from all we now have. And the player of value is gone. A bonafide MLB top tier 2nd baseman and fan fav now gone for a net gain of $5.5 million in salary cuts. Half of what they "took a low cost flyer", they said, on Joey Gallo.

Hey, any deal can go bad, and even the star players paid over 200 Million can sign for the big money and have their career worst year and have all those recent injuries. You just never know. 

[sun]

Topa seems to have been the real target here. I'm confident about him & he comes with control until 2027. The rest is just icing on the cake. Disco may need extra days of rest to remain somewhat healthy & is a gamble. But he's better than nothing considering the payroll issues. I hate to see El Capitan Polanco go, but the handwriting was on the wall. The most important thing is that he's getting his payday, hopefully for 2 years. I'm excited about Topa since it seems that he's as strong as a bull & has a low ERA. It doesn't make sense to pay both Polanco & Farmer. We're in good hands. There's even insurance prospects included to back up this deal.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

This morning I posted that I really liked our projected starting lineup in which I had the switch hitting Polanco as the DH in the three hole.

Having said that, I’m a little more optimistic about this trade for a couple of reasons:

1. I’m a huge proponent of a shut down pen.  Topa is solid with high leverage capabilities. But it’s just not Topa this deal adds to the pen: it’s Varland too.  Our 7 - 9 inning pen options are now running six pitchers deep. On paper, this is our most solid pen entering a season in a very long time.  That’s huge. Just ask the Astros.

2. Ultimately we are paying about $2MM for DeSclafini.  Were we really going to find a better fifth starter for that amount?  If he can give us 25 starts of 5-6 innings (135-140 innings) with a 4.50 or so ERA, coupled with our new pen depth, we will win more than 50% of his starts. He doesn’t need to be better than that.

3. Let’s face it, we are short RH outfielders in the system.  We just added a top 100 or so prospect to our stable,  This hedges out Rodriguez a bit and adds quality depth where it is badly needed.  Moreover, it’s another trade chip that, depending on how his 2024 goes, could accrue value.

4. I’m not sleeping on Bowen as a potential MLB reliever.  Sure, he’s not the straw stirring this drink, but there is now another very, very live arm in our system. You can never have enough live arms.

5. The extra $5MM+ cash - for our franchise in 2024 - is nothing to sneeze at.  It may not seem like much, but let’s see how it’s ultimately deployed. Who knows, maybe just having the extra cash available gets the FO and ownership more comfortable going over reported target payroll levels.  For example, maybe there is a player out there who at $10-$20MM was just too expensive, but maybe now can be made to fit with the extra cash.

6. Sadly, the DH replacement solution for a HEALTHY Polanco is not as straightforward.  This point is valid. More thought is required, but I think Buxton will be filling that DH role quite a bit anyway with Castro, Gordon or Martin filling in in CF. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lee up fairly soon playing some 2B with Kiriloff and Julien able to fill in at 1B and DH.

I think Varland ends up in the pen in September again, but he's most likely in AAA to start the year waiting for a starter to go down and stepping into the rotation. 

I don't like that we're filling the 5th spot with a cheap veteran. I have no idea what realistic options there were to fill that spot with a better arm, but I don't want anymore of these mid-30s veterans where the hope is they can get you 5 innings a start with a 4.5 ERA. This team is supposed to be competing for playoff wins, they need to move past these veteran fixer uppers.

Prospects are important. He's a nice one, depending on who you ask. No problem with him. But I don't like making the major league team worse to add him when they should be pushing to make the major league team better. Is Gonzalez really better than Kala'i Rosario?

I'm not sleeping on anyone, but chances are he's nothing. He's not a top 30 system prospect. Of course he could develop into something as a reliever, but, again, I'm not interested in that in return for the 2 hole hitter on a playoff team. 23 year old A ball pitchers with "live arms" aren't exactly rare or hard to acquire.

5 million is nothing. If they wouldn't sign someone for 20, but now they will I'm not impressed, sorry. Yes, I'm waiting and expecting more, but if 5 million is whats been holding them back it's actually a negative to me, not a positive. 

I have no interest in Buck as a DH with Castro and Gordon in CF. If he's too hurt to play CF he needs to go on the IL. I'm excited for Brooks Lee, but he wasn't very good in AAA so I'm not going to expect him to OPS+ 115 or better in the majors. This trade significantly hurt the offense today.

But I expect more moves so we'll see what the team looks like opening day. I think the value was solid for Polanco. But it hurt the 2024 team and I'm not interested in lowering both the floor and ceiling of this team even more than losing Sonny and Kenta already did. They have more work to do and I believe they'll make more moves. But until those moves are made I don't like this deal.

[UK Twin]

Good trade all round. DeSclafani is ok, nothing more and likely a one year rental. But does provide rotation depth. Like Topa a lot. Groundball pitcher which makes absolute sense with Correa at SS. Plus 2 prospects, one a top 100 and the other intriguing. Well done Falvey. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Sadly, several of our other fellow TDers seem to miss the painful reality that $5MM does matter to this team this year.  They can complain about wanting to spend more money or how cheap the Pohlads are, but it doesn’t change the marching orders within which our FO must operate. It’s too bad, but it’s how things are.

Like any trade, we shall see how it turns out.  Polanco might be an all star and he might play 80 games (especially being slotted in to play 2B on a daily basis).  DeSclafini may get 25 starts and pitch 140 innings of 4.50 era ball and not be needed to start any of our many post season games.  In the real world of budget constraints under which this team lives, for $2MM I’d take that all day long from a #5 starter backed up by a very deep, strong pen.  It’s fantasy land to think that Buxton will not DH plenty this year;  if he’s healthy and playing 80 games in CF (which we’d all sign up for right now), are we going to assume he sits on the bench the other 80 games?  Not likely. Varland should now be expected to pitch for the Twins as both a starter and reliever this season - that swing role has huge value. And there will be other moves, that, yes, the extra $5MM facilitates.

For the moment, this deal has both pros and cons and only time will tell, like any deal, which of the two will prevail.  But in the real world of Twins 2024 baseball, no one is omniscient enough to say that, on its face, this deal lowers the Twins’ prospects this season or beyond.

[UK Twin]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

MLBtraderumors has the Twins banking an extra 5.25 mil on this deal so I'm not sure the cash is all that useful unless they're planning on going above where they were. Gonzalez is top-100 on 1 list, but is he on any others? Fangraphs had him at 40+ FV so we'll see if they've changed their mind on him. Bowen wasn't in the top 30 for Seattle but he's going to be top 20 for the Twins? Not buying that at all. 

In a vacuum I think this is fair value for Polanco. I want nothing to do with DeSclafani types on the Twins rotation anymore, but such is life. I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. Gonzalez has some very nice reviews on his bat to ball skills, but is apparently the polar opposite of Emma and swings at everything. Probably why he wasn't good after his promotion to A+ ball, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements they can make there. They got Miranda to cut down his swing crazy approach so hopefully they can do it again. Bowen is a likely reliever flier so we'll see there. Overall it's a solid return for 2 years of Polanco with his recent injuries. 

That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.

Brooks Lee is coming. And while you can't rely on a rookie hitting the ground running, he's got all the tools to be an excellent MLB 2B. And if he struggles to start with, we have both Farmer and Julien who can cover 2B. But this trade clears the path for Lee to reach MLB and I'm really looking forward to watching him. 

[TopTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, UK Twin said:

Brooks Lee is coming. And while you can't rely on a rookie hitting the ground running, he's got all the tools to be an excellent MLB 2B. And if he struggles to start with, we have both Farmer and Julien who can cover 2B. But this trade clears the path for Lee to reach MLB and I'm really looking forward to watching him. 

He is a second base version of Kirby Puckett. He will swing at everything, and hit most of it. I too am excited for his debut (probably this year) but even more excited for Walker Jenkins. I think he is a future HOF. The Twins have a bright hitting future ahead of them and its part of why on its face this trade looks good. They needed to add innings-DeSclafani- and another great bullpen arm-Topa- (plus a top 100 prospect etc)

[TopTwinsFan]

Innings have become so expensive this offseason. In other words, the cost of guys who can pitch 100+ innings have increased significantly. Part of why I am surprised the Mariners made this trade.

Sure hope Topa can give the Twins 65 IP and a 2.50 ERA. They have needed a guy like that badly to set up Duran consistently and it will make Jax and Stewart (and perhaps Varland) better.

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, UK Twin said:

Good trade all round. DeSclafani is ok, nothing more and likely a one year rental. But does provide rotation depth.

That hole Levine remarked about in the starting rotation reminds me of an old rusty bucket I have outside. I traded some zucchini to my neighbor for it. By the time I fill it and get to the garden, there isn't much water left in it.

I am going to name that bucket "Dez."

[wabene]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think Varland ends up in the pen in September again, but he's most likely in AAA to start the year waiting for a starter to go down and stepping into the rotation. 

I agree with this part 😀. This is a win win for Louie. He gets his chance to prove whether he can be a major league starter. Then in crunch time he gets to light it up from the pen which he enjoys immensely after that taste he got last year. The only change to this plan i see is Varland pitches so well as a starter they consider him for that role to the end and into the playoffs. There will be much hand wringing if he is in St Paul to begin the season, but I don't see him starting the season in the pen. I wouldn't want him to either. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Good trade.  I think the plan now is to add the following:

1 mid/top rotation starter via trade.

1 nice RH bat, probably an OFer, via trade or FA.  

Very possibly some margin pieces as well, but if we make those remaining two moves, then I would.be very happy.

- Rotation set

- Bullpen set

- OF set 

- IF set

- Depth set

[pierre75275]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think Varland ends up in the pen in September again, but he's most likely in AAA to start the year waiting for a starter to go down and stepping into the rotation. 

I don't like that we're filling the 5th spot with a cheap veteran. I have no idea what realistic options there were to fill that spot with a better arm, but I don't want anymore of these mid-30s veterans where the hope is they can get you 5 innings a start with a 4.5 ERA. This team is supposed to be competing for playoff wins, they need to move past these veteran fixer uppers.

Prospects are important. He's a nice one, depending on who you ask. No problem with him. But I don't like making the major league team worse to add him when they should be pushing to make the major league team better. Is Gonzalez really better than Kala'i Rosario?

I'm not sleeping on anyone, but chances are he's nothing. He's not a top 30 system prospect. Of course he could develop into something as a reliever, but, again, I'm not interested in that in return for the 2 hole hitter on a playoff team. 23 year old A ball pitchers with "live arms" aren't exactly rare or hard to acquire.

5 million is nothing. If they wouldn't sign someone for 20, but now they will I'm not impressed, sorry. Yes, I'm waiting and expecting more, but if 5 million is whats been holding them back it's actually a negative to me, not a positive. 

I have no interest in Buck as a DH with Castro and Gordon in CF. If he's too hurt to play CF he needs to go on the IL. I'm excited for Brooks Lee, but he wasn't very good in AAA so I'm not going to expect him to OPS+ 115 or better in the majors. This trade significantly hurt the offense today.

But I expect more moves so we'll see what the team looks like opening day. I think the value was solid for Polanco. But it hurt the 2024 team and I'm not interested in lowering both the floor and ceiling of this team even more than losing Sonny and Kenta already did. They have more work to do and I believe they'll make more moves. But until those moves are made I don't like this deal.

In order for this trade, by itself to have hurt the 2024 team, that means the Twins internal options to replace Polanco will need to worse then him. So Julien, Farmer, and maybe occasionally starts by Castro and/or Lee if he gets called up and a rotating DH (of which Polanco would have been a part of) would be worse than Polanco this year. In addition to that, Topa instead of shoring up the pen isn't good at all, and in addition to that, Andrew D implodes as a 5th starter. 

I don't believe all those things happen like that. Andrew D is a depth piece and will be used accordingly, but most likely isn't on the team come Oct. Topa shores up the bullpen, leaving several options in AAA if he doesn't. I think at the end of the year, Julien's numbers and WAR are higher than Polanco's and he has played more.

Now if you want to say the 2024 team is worse than 2023 bc of the loss of Kenta, Gray, Pagan, Taylor, and Solano, I wouldn't argue that, but this trade moves the needle in the right direction.

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Interesting comment from Seattle GM on Seattle Sports:

“He’s a guy that we have liked and tried to acquire for years,” said Hollander. “I think I personally made more calls on this trade than I ever have on any trade before at the behest of both my own want to add him to our group, so a really big day for us. (I) feel like it makes us a lot better and excited to add him.”

I think the Twins probably got the better end of the deal here, and it appears from the above comment that Seattle was the driver of this deal getting done thus potentially overpaying. Barring injuries, Twins got a bit stronger for 2024, and better for the future with a controllable reliever and two prospects.

I would prefer the Twins use a piggyback for their 5th and 6th starters instead of moving Varland to the bullpen. DeScalfani and Paddack could be a good fit to pair, limiting their overall usage to minimize injury risk, with each throwing 3-4 innings per game (under 60 pitches) giving you 7-8 in their combined starts.

Twins now have four of the top 79 prospects in baseball. Per Eno Sarris Twins starters before this trade ranked 12, 40, 48, 65, and 87th in baseball. 

Loved watching Polanco as a Twin, but overall I think this was a solid, not flashy, move for the Twins. Julien and Brooks Lee will be above average, high value options at 2nd for the next several years.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sadly, several of our other fellow TDers seem to miss the painful reality that $5MM does matter to this team this year.  They can complain about wanting to spend more money or how cheap the Pohlads are, but it doesn’t change the marching orders within which our FO must operate. It’s too bad, but it’s how things are.

Like any trade, we shall see how it turns out.  Polanco might be an all star and he might play 80 games (especially being slotted in to play 2B on a daily basis).  DeSclafini may get 25 starts and pitch 140 innings of 4.50 era ball and not be needed to start any of our many post season games.  In the real world of budget constraints under which this team lives, for $2MM I’d take that all day long from a #5 starter backed up by a very deep, strong pen.  It’s fantasy land to think that Buxton will not DH plenty this year;  if he’s healthy and playing 80 games in CF (which we’d all sign up for right now), are we going to assume he sits on the bench the other 80 games?  Not likely. Varland should now be expected to pitch for the Twins as both a starter and reliever this season - that swing role has huge value. And there will be other moves, that, yes, the extra $5MM facilitates.

For the moment, this deal has both pros and cons and only time will tell, like any deal, which of the two will prevail.  But in the real world of Twins 2024 baseball, no one is omniscient enough to say that, on its face, this deal lowers the Twins’ prospects this season or beyond.

The preponderance of mixed reactions to the trade make it likely that this will turn out to be another win-win.. without the star power of last year's Marlins trade. 

[Doctor Wu]

4 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Good trade all round. DeSclafani is ok, nothing more and likely a one year rental. But does provide rotation depth. Like Topa a lot. Groundball pitcher which makes absolute sense with Correa at SS. Plus 2 prospects, one a top 100 and the other intriguing. Well done Falvey. 

I like the trade too. I understand the love for Polanco, but he was entering the last year of his contract, getting older with those lingering injury concerns, so I'm thrilled we got as much for him as we did. No, DeSclafani is not the answer to strengthen our starting rotation, but he's a depth piece and hey, maybe he can regain his 2021 magic. Not sure about the late-blooming relief pitcher,  but he appears to be a good addition. The biggest bonus for me is the young outfield prospect. That definitely helps tilt this one in favor of the Twins. I only hope we aren't finished dealing. We still need that missing piece in the starting rotation. 

[bighat]

6 hours ago, GNess said:

Teams have to give something of value to get something of value. Hate to see Polo move on, but I think this is a solid trade. A top 100 prospect in Gonzalez seems especially intriguing. The two MLB level pitchers add to the depth in the rotation and bullpen. Plus, a bonus prospect pitcher with some upside as a throw-in. 

That's a pretty nice haul for two seasons of Polo..

Agreed. 

And for as good as Polanco is, he's definitely been suffering more injuries the past 2+ years. He's not "injury prone" just yet but his nagging injuries aren't going to just go away as he hits age 30, we know that. 

What a great tenure he had in a Twins uniform. 

[Doctor Wu]

16 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The preponderance of mixed reactions to the trade make it likely that this will turn out to be another win-win.. without the star power of last year's Marlins trade. 

That would be great if that happens, and the odds are that it WILL work for both teams. I certainly with Polanco good luck in Seattle. 

[bighat]

Just read that Topa is 33 years old and has had two Tommy John procedures. 

I think the OF prospect was the real focus here. We won't know for probably 3 years if this was a good trade or not. 

[Fatbat]

There is a lot to unpack in this deal after nothing this winter.  Our SP and RP got better. Seattles infield got better. Our farm system got better.
moving forward, If one young guy, takes his shot and runs with it out of spring training, our infield will be better. That guy could be Miranda, Martin, Lee, Severino etc. 

big question about our DH slot, not really tho. No polanco just means that others get more ABs there. 
I don’t like this trade yet but time will tell. 

[Fatbat]

26 minutes ago, bighat said:

Just read that Topa is 33 years old and has had two Tommy John procedures. 

I think the OF prospect was the real focus here. We won't know for probably 3 years if this was a good trade or not. 

Watch some video on Topa, our bullpen is much better with him. 

[SteveLV]

Doctor Wu, Polanco actually has 2 years on his deal, with another option coming for 2025 season, too.  At a very good price.