Assessing the Twins' Trade of Jorge Polanco

[Fatbat]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If you believe Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Brooks Lee are good enough to hit 2 hole in the playoffs more power to ya, I don't. Julien isn't replacing Polanco in any way shape or form. They were both already in the starting lineup. Topa can be lights out and still not be anywhere near valuable enough to make up for any real amount of loss of the 2 hole hitter in the lineup, that's just the nature of relief pitching. DeSclafani hasn't been good for years, has a questionable elbow, and is worse than the guy he's pushing out of the rotation (Varland).

"Used accordingly?" We'll see about that, I guess. Again, Julien isn't replacing Polanco. I don't know why people keep saying that. If opening day had been 1/28 Julien would've lead off and Polanco would've been hitting right behind him (assuming a righty starter). Julien having a higher WAR than Polanco doesn't matter when they're both in the starting lineup.

We'll just have to agree to disagree that replacing your 2 hole hitter with a "depth piece" starter you don't expect to even last the season and a reliever makes this team better.

It’s plausible that the team finds a #2 hole guy that replaces Polo and then some.  Not sure who that guy is but someone will step up.  The clubhouse will not be the same tho. 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This type of roster management is by far the most effective way for a team in the bottom half of revenue to sustain success and history supports this assertion.

Wait...wut?

 

Can you point to your past posts advocating trading for mid-30s pitchers?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Wait...wut?

 

Can you point to your past posts advocating trading for mid-30s pitchers?

For starters, you are not even responding to what I posted, and this is just petty.  You find an irrelevant aspect rather than focus on the metritis aspect of the trade or you don't understand the merit.   I said history will support the assertion that this type of trade is how bottom half teams have succeeded.  You have focused only on the major league talent, ignored, the prospects, and ignored the fact they added major league on a budget.  The fact that the major league talent is older is not relevant.  The relevant aspects of the strategy they employed are that they ....

• Traded from excess.
• Traded a player with two years of control who had provided a great deal of value.
• Received what would project to be far more total value than he could provide.  (See ESPN and Fangraphs)   
• They also got some shorter-term assets in positions of need making up for present value lost.
• Made room for a top prospect (Lee) 
• Got a top 100 prospect
• Got another decent prospect with upside.
• Added SP for $4M that is the rough equivalent of SPs that signed for 3X that amount.  
• Traded a player whose trade value was higher than keeping him because he had been replaced as a starter.

This kind of creativity in acquiring major talent and getting good future value is exactly how teams in the bottom half of revenue construct a successful roster.  There is none so blind as those who will not see and you just don't want to see.

[UK Twin]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The spot in the order isn't really the point. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters. They took a bat from the top of their lineup and replaced it with a reliever and a starter nobody thinks is actually any good. I hope you're right and it's not a big issue replacing a 115+ OPS+ bat at the top of the lineup. History says you're probably wrong, though.

TBF I totally get your point. And what I think needs to be mentioned is that the money saved from this trade will be reinvested onto the payroll. And that will likely be a RH bat. Also, last season taught me to believe in our rookies! Julien was a really late round pick and he's flourished at MLB level. I have absolute faith that Lee can have a really solid rookie year. It may require some short term pain in losing a good, veteran hitter's production in Polanco but I think the impact will be fairly minimal. 

[Riverbrian]

For anyone who can't find AB's for Polanco so therefore he must go. 

OK... Let's Assume there are no injuries... which never happens... but let's assume that ALL players stay healthy for all 162 games.

And let's also assume that not only did all of our players stay healthy but all of our players are also playing well... playing to expectation or exceeding expectation. Which never happens. 

How many starts for all of these healthy and performing players is the question? 

The answer is simple... Do the very simple math... 8 positions if you take the Catcher spot out... 11 players that need playing time if you take the catcher spots out. 

Here's the formula - 162 games x 8 / 11. Total that up and the answer is:  IT DOESN"T MATTER

It doesn't matter because everyone is healthy and playing well. It doesn't matter who Rocco puts in the lineup because they are all meeting or exceeding expectation so who cares how many starts individual players get.

However... that never happens... but if it ever does happen... the Twins will win the AL Central by a million miles and we can look back on these discussions and laugh and laugh and laugh because it was such a trivial concern. 

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Wait...wut?

 

Can you point to your past posts advocating trading for mid-30s pitchers?

There was an opportunity.

 

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

TBF I totally get your point. And what I think needs to be mentioned is that the money saved from this trade will be reinvested onto the payroll. And that will likely be a RH bat. Also, last season taught me to believe in our rookies! Julien was a really late round pick and he's flourished at MLB level. I have absolute faith that Lee can have a really solid rookie year. It may require some short term pain in losing a good, veteran hitter's production in Polanco but I think the impact will be fairly minimal. 

I've maybe not acknowledged it in our back and forth, but I've mentioned future moves in other posts. When the 5.25 mil is reinvested into the roster I'll reasses where things are at, but I'm not going to praise them for moves they haven't made yet. If that RH bat is Donovan Solano I'm not giving them heaps of praise for this wonderful manipulation of the roster and finances, but if it's Jorge Soler I will. I just won't praise them for saving money until they've shown what they do with it.

Julien destroyed the minors every step of the way. Lee has not. I think Lee can be a very good player, but I'm not a fan of relying on him to improve an ALDS team. No problem with others having that stance, but it's not where I'm at with him yet. Rookies fail more than they succeed. Miranda is already an after thought on this team after he put up much better upper minors numbers and had a great rookie year. I'm just more hesitant to rely on rookies and young guys improving an ALDS team. Just maintaining an ALDS team when losing your #2 pitcher and a top 4-5 bat is really hard when your biggest addition is a reliever and prospect who's 2 or 3 years away at best.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So you were real mad all postseason that they were just ruining their chances of winning by playing Polo everyday and hitting him between Julien and Lewis, right?

I was plenty irritated they kept playing Polanco at 3B instead of Willi Castro.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

When the 5.25 mil is reinvested into the roster I'll reasses where things are at, but I'm not going to praise them for moves they haven't made yet.

I'm fine with the Polanco trade but still irritated how they're taking a potential contender and starving it of resources. Apparently AJ Pierzynski agrees with me.

'They're so broke': A.J. Pierzynski rips Twins owners after Polanco trade - Sports Illustrated Minnesota Sports, News, Analysis, and More

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm fine with the Polanco trade but still irritated how they're taking a potential contender and starving it of resources. Apparently AJ Pierzynski agrees with me.

'They're so broke': A.J. Pierzynski rips Twins owners after Polanco trade - Sports Illustrated Minnesota Sports, News, Analysis, and More

I'm fine with the return for Polanco, and was expecting him to be traded since the season ended. But this was an ALDS team last year and they've now lost their #2 starter, their number 5 starter/playoff bullpen arm, their 2 hole hitter/top 4-5 hitter from their lineup, and replaced them with a broken down 5th starter 2 other teams have already paid to have not pitch for them, a 32 year old break out rookie reliever, a handful of low probability relievers, and 2 prospects in A ball. The FO doesn't get praise from me for that. The Pohalds definitely don't get praise for anything. I'm with you and Pierzynski.

I hold out hope and expectations that more is to come. I think it's being oversold that they have some grand plan for some big move with the money saved in this trade. They've surprised me before and I'll wait until opening day to pass final judgement on the offseason, though. But as of this moment I'm not impressed. And the idea that they could use this 5 mil for a deadline deal doesn't impress me either. Don't starve your team (I like your phrasing there) during the offseason and rely on being able to outbid other teams at the deadline to fix the holes you already know you have. Fix them now.