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When analyzing which starting pitchers the Twins could realistically acquire this offseason, it feels imperative to buck specific trends. The Twins front office is unlikely to land frontline starters Shane Bieber or Dylan Cease, since both play in their division. They could be in on the Brewers' Corbin Burnes, but that addition would come at a heavy cost. Given their financial constraints, they almost certainly aren't going to sign the remaining top free agents, Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery
So, who does that leave as viable options? Less-talked-about trade candidates such as Jesús Luzardo, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller are more realistic options, yet due to them being young, cost-effective, and under team control for a significant amount of time, the team would need to send a package filled with substantial prospect capital, with second-ranked prospect Brooks Lee the likely headliner.
That being the case, it feels like the most realistic avenues down which the Twins could venture are:
- Trading for an under-the-radar starting pitcher who has yet to blossom, similar to Pablo López last season
- Standing pat and having Louie Varland be the fifth-starter
- Signing a mid-tier free agent like Hyun Jin Ryu or Michael Lorenzen to a cheap one-year contract; or
- Trading for a starting pitcher of the same caliber.
Though numerous players who could be acquired relatively cheaply fit this archetype, one specific pitcher will be highlighted in this piece: Anthony DeSclafani.
Traded from the San Francisco Giants to the Seattle Mariners last Friday, the 33-year-old DeSclafani finds himself at a crossroads in his career. Will he be able to continue to contribute as age erodes his stuff, or is his career bound to fizzle out and come to a premature conclusion? In 2021, DeSclafani wangled a 3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 3.0 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 167 2/3 innings pitched and 31 games started. Though DeSclafani's first year in the Bay Area went well, he has unfortunately scuffled, generating a combined 5.75 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 1.0 fWAR over 118 2/3 IP and 23 games started over the past two seasons.
Though it is hard to pinpoint why a player struggled, it is safe to assume that the injuries that prematurely ended his 2022 and 2023 seasons are the main culprits. The injury that ended his 2023 campaign was a flexor strain in his right below. Though this type of injury is alarming for a starting pitcher, he did not require surgery, and it appears he will be ready for Opening Day in 2024. With DeSclafani looking to be healthy next season, would it be wise for the Twins to trade for the one year and $12 million left on his contract?
FanGraphs' STEAMER projects DeSclafani will generate a 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 0.6 fWAR over 88 IP with the Mariners as a reliever. Before getting traded to the Mariners, STEAMER projected DeSclafani would make 26 starts for the Giants, manufacturing a 1.4 fWAR over 148 IP. If DeSclafani were traded to the Twins, his 1.4 fWAR projection would be wedged between Chris Paddack (projected 1.8 fWAR over 145 IP) and Louie Varland (projected 1.3 fWAR over 136 IP). Though this type of performance from DeSclafani could be seen as underwhelming, having an effective, veteran back-of-the-rotation arm to complement Paddack and Varland (who are largely unknown commodities) could play a significant role in keeping the Twins afloat during the strenuous 162-game regular season.
DeSclafani heavily relies on his slider, a pitch he threw 44.8 percent of the time in 2023. The Florida product's main complementary pitch is a sinker, which he threw 27.7 percent of the time last season. DeSclafani also utilizes a four-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball, leading to a five-pitch repertoire. Being a slider-first pitcher who uses a sinker/fastball as almost a secondary option, he fits what the Twins desire when pursuing pitching talent to a tee. Also, he seems comfortable using his four-seamer to attack the top of the zone, a trait the Twins significantly value when it comes to pitch location.
Although it would be ideal if the Twins could acquire a frontline starter who could approximate the 4.1 fWAR Pablo López is projected to produce in 2024, acquiring a back-of-the-rotation starter with the potential to yield 1.4 or more fWAR would be an adequate consolation prize.
Should the Twins trade for DeSclafani? Does his injury history worry you? Would you rather have DeSclafani or Varland be the team's fifth starter? Join the discussion and comment below.
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