Is Ryan Jeffers Underrated?

[Cody Christie]

Catching is baseball’s most demanding defensive position, so teams can struggle to find a two-way player. Ryan Jeffers has excelled on both sides of the ball, but do national outlets underrate him?

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Pitchers and catchers will begin reporting to spring training complexes next month, and that can get fans thinking about the possibilities associated with a season’s new beginning. Twins fans can hope that Ryan Jeffers will build off his solid 2023 campaign and continue establishing himself as one of baseball’s best catchers. 

MLB Network creates an annual list of the Top 10 Players Right Now at every position. Ironically, though, in these lists, the voters tend to evaluate the long-term track record of a player versus more recent performance. For instance, Carlos Correa continues to rank in their top 10 for shortstops, even after his disastrous 2023 season. Jeffers failed to crack their top 10 list, so let’s examine his case.

Pro: OPS+
Jeffers led all catchers in baseball (who had at least 250 at-bats) with a 134 OPS+. That total means his offensive output was 34 percent better than the league average, after adjusting for the mix of ballparks in which he played. Catchers typically take a beating behind the plate, which can impact their hitting performance. The Twins drafted Jeffers as a bat-first catcher from college, and he continued to gain confidence throughout last season. Jeffers raised his OPS from .778 in the first half to .928 in the second half, thanks to 10 home runs and seven doubles in 45 games. 

Pro: WAR
According to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, Jeffers finished eighth in WAR among catchers. The only AL catchers with a higher WAR total were Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman (bWAR, fWAR) and Texas’s Jonah Heim (fWAR). Jeffers’s 138 wRC+ was tied with former Twins catcher Mitch Garver for the top backstop total, but Garver only started 27 games behind the plate last season. Some catchers provide value on one side of the ball or the other, but Jeffers has shown the ability to help the Twins both offensively and defensively. 

Con: Defensive Numbers Dropped
After signing with the Twins, Jeffers renewed his focus on his defensive abilities, because his college didn’t have a coach to work with catchers. He has become known as a strong framer, as his framing ranked in the 70th percentile or higher during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Last year, his framing dropped to the 25th percentile, and he cost the Twins 8 runs as a framer, according to Statcast. His Blocks Above Average and Caught Stealing Above Average were in the 25th percentile or lower. However, his pop time improved from the 44th percentile in 2022 to the 59th percentile last season.

Con: Fell Short of 350 Plate Appearances
Jeffers is the only catcher in the top 10 for WAR who didn’t appear in more than 100 games. His 335 plate appearances ranked 28th among catchers, including a handful of appearances as the team's designated hitter. Minnesota has valued a two-catcher rotation, because the team feels like it allows both catchers to perform at a high level. The Twins have discussed trading Christian Vázquez this winter, which could allow Jeffers to become a more regular catcher. The rigors of catching would impact his performance on both sides of the ball. He’s also dealt with injuries in the past, and the team needs him to stay healthy to stay in contention.  

How Can Jeffers Become a Top-10 Catcher?
Jeffers must accomplish various things in 2024 to enter the top-10 catcher rankings. MLB Network’s voters tend to like players who consistently perform from one year to the next, and Jeffers doesn’t fit that mold yet. His offensive numbers were excellent last season, but he could have provided even more value on the defensive side. The Twins could use Jeffers more regularly behind the plate, but as previously mentioned, that could negatively affect his performance.

Do you believe Jeffers is underrated? Can he become a top-5 catcher in Minnesota’s two-catcher system? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Sorry after reading a few of these,  I think I should post something like. . . Are Twins fans underrating Tony O's Cubanos.  It seems we are undervaluing everything LOL.  Although you know me,  lets throw Kepler in the mix LOL.  

[Karbo]

Hopefully the automated strike zone hits the majors soon, and we can throw out that stupid pitch framing stat, which IMO is extremely subjective to the ump as well!

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Hopefully the automated strike zone hits the majors soon, and we can throw out that stupid pitch framing stat, which IMO is extremely subjective to the ump as well!

That umpires might unevenly affect the efficacy of framing is a good and underdiscussed point. I will say that more than one of the stat frameworks that evaluate the skill make an attempt to correct for that effect, but it's tough to do perfectly. So, I guess, is adjusting for parks and league run environments, among other things.

Me, personally: I hope the strike zone is never automated. It's part of the art of the game. Sport should be art, more than science. We lose something huge and essential when we let it go from one thing to the other. 

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Hopefully the automated strike zone hits the majors soon, and we can throw out that stupid pitch framing stat, which IMO is extremely subjective to the ump as well!

Yeah, rating catchers on faking strikes is like rating soccer players on faking injuries.

I get it, since there's no current mechanism to stop it, it's relevant to evaluate, but it's only part of the game because there was no technology to stop it in the past and baseball is resistant to change..

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Me, personally: I hope the strike zone is never automated. It's part of the art of the game. Sport should be art, more than science. We lose something huge and essential when we let it go from one thing to the other. 

It's not art, it's authorized cheating. And only because unauthorizing it would have been impossible.

[Eris]

How Ryan Jeffers becomes a top 10 ranked catcher is if the 2023 version of Jeffers shows up for the next 4 or 5 years. If the 2021 and 2022 version appears he is not a top 10 catcher. 

[Schmoeman5]

Hardest position. Yes. Overrated. No. He caught roughly 1/2 of the Twins games.  Yeah yeah yeah I know catchers aren't supposed to go 130 games anymore. Although I don't know the reason. But let's see what kind of numbers he puts up if he goes over 100. If he can duplicate 2023 then you can debate it.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

No. He just hasn’t been good long enough.  Keep up the production, play more games, and he’ll get there.  

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Hopefully the automated strike zone hits the majors soon, and we can throw out that stupid pitch framing stat, which IMO is extremely subjective to the ump as well!

Pitch framing is a BS "stat".  It measures nothing.  I'll die on this hill.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan Jeffers is a really decent catcher. I do not believe he is underrated. Part of his worth is how he has been used. When Baldelli divides the catching duties evenly Jeffers does a really good job. I'm not convinced his load could rise above 110 games. Vazquez is a very good catcher and I expect he will hit a bit better this season. Any offense from the catcher is a bonus. We saw what happens when Jeffers is used everyday during the playoffs. Still I'm a big fan of Jeffers. The Twins do need to work on developing more options for the catching position.

[jorgenswest]

ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490).

We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

In looking over the catchers on that top 10 list I see Kirk as the only one that might be overrated. I still wouldn't rate Jeffers above Kirk though. Also in not knowing where Jeffers would actually land overall, I'd say he's more along the lines of being unrated as opposed to being underrated. He just doesn't get the reps these other guys do and that hurts his case. However if he was playing more his lines might not look as sharp as they do.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490).

We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.

 

A league average hitter at C is gold.

[DJL44]

I am also not convinced that we are measuring the impact of pitch framing correctly. We don't measure at-bats on a pitch-by-pitch basis giving the hitter credit for each ball they take or strike they miss, we only measure the result of the at-bat. I have a hard time believing Jeffers was that bad when the pitching staff led the league in strikeouts.

[mnfireman]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am also not convinced that we are measuring the impact of pitch framing correctly. We don't measure at-bats on a pitch-by-pitch basis giving the hitter credit for each ball they take or strike they miss, we only measure the result of the at-bat. I have a hard time believing Jeffers was that bad when the pitching staff led the league in strikeouts.

Jeffers was considered below average as a pitch framer by metrics, but was above average overall defensively using the same metrics. Automated umpires will make it all moot anyway.

[harmony55]

FWIW Among American League catchers, Seattle's Cal Raleigh posted the second-highest fWAR at 4.7 to Ryan Jeffers' 2.7:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=c&qual=20

[big dog]

His mother strongly concurs with the "underrated" assessment. I will just hope for continued improvement.

[Fatbat]

How much difference is there from the 5th best to the 14th best? Does it really matter?

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Eris said:

How Ryan Jeffers becomes a top 10 ranked catcher is if the 2023 version of Jeffers shows up for the next 4 or 5 years. If the 2021 and 2022 version appears he is not a top 10 catcher. 

If 2022 Jeffers shows up I will agree with you. 

However, if Jeffers actually does what you are asking for the next 4 or 5 years... He would be the best catcher in baseball if he delivers. 

[Riverbrian]

I'm not that concerned about people sitting in a room and creating a top ten list. Although... the presence of Yanier Diaz on the list after one season suggests that Jeffers may have been glossed over.  

However... I am more concerned if he is properly rated by his direct supervisors. 

Vazquez - .598 OPS

Jeffers - .858 OPS

Despite a rather large .260 point OPS canyon between the two. 

Based on utilization - Jeffers never really over took Vazquez for playing time until the playoffs. The season started with Vazquez starting 2 games out of 3. Jeffers was able to earn the trust of the manager for 50-50 utilization and no more despite a .260 point canyon. 

April: Vazquez - 61 AB's and Jeffers - 37 AB's

May: V - 51 and J - 38

June: V - 48 and J - 48

July: V- 51 and J - 38

August: J - 65 and V - 54

September: V - 58 and J - 56

He won't make the top ten until our manager plays him like he belongs in the top ten. 

[Whitey333]

Underrated?  No.  Overrated? Yes like many current Twins players.  Pitch framing is a joke and an embarrassment to umpires and baseball in general.  It's understandable for 3rd and 4th graders but has absolutely no business in professional baseball.

 

[mikelink45]

No he is not underrated.  One season with less than 350 ABs does not suddenly propel a catcher to the top list.  Let's see what he does in the future.  He looked good his rookie year and then went backwards.  

Right now the important thing is to be rated the number one catcher on the Twins.

[wabene]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490).

We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.

 

It you look at 2020 he had a similar batting line with an even higher babip. Yes it a smaller sample size. Yes it is very likely some of these things regress, but he did say he unlocked a new approach which I think he said included some things he had gotten away from. I hope he is right, he seemed very confident at the time. Of course this game is very good at crushing confidence, lol. The .858 OPS and 134 OPS+ are pretty sweet for any player and especially a catcher. Baseball Reference projects him to have a .764 OPS which is above average and again well above average for a catcher. That would be more like the in-between you mention. My guess (hope) is he does better than that which would be still be possible even with a drop in some stats like babip. For reference the league average OPS for catchers last year was .694.

[4twinsJA]

I agree with other posters, Jeffers has to play more to be in top 10 now discussion. As far as automatic strike zone, I think it would be best as an unseen by fans. Meaning, umps get notification by beep in ear or something like that if strike. Would rather have immediate results rather than replay or appeal. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not that concerned about people sitting in a room and creating a top ten list. Although... the presence of Yanier Diaz on the list after one season suggests that Jeffers may have been glossed over.  

However... I am more concerned if he is properly rated by his direct supervisors. 

Vazquez - .598 OPS

Jeffers - .858 OPS

Despite a rather large .260 point OPS canyon between the two. 

Based on utilization - Jeffers never really over took Vazquez for playing time until the playoffs. The season started with Vazquez starting 2 games out of 3. Jeffers was able to earn the trust of the manager for 50-50 utilization and no more despite a .260 point canyon. 

April: Vazquez - 61 AB's and Jeffers - 37 AB's

May: V - 51 and J - 38

June: V - 48 and J - 48

July: V- 51 and J - 38

August: J - 65 and V - 54

September: V - 58 and J - 56

He won't make the top ten until our manager plays him like he belongs in the top ten. 

To be fair, this MLB list isn't created by people sitting in a room it's created by a computer program that compiles 3 years worth of data and spits out predicted performance for the next year to create a list of the top 10 for the upcoming season. They call it "The Shredder" if that adds any excitement to things for you. I think Jeffers actually made one of the 5 individual lists created by the folks on the show if I'm remembering correctly.

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, this MLB list isn't created by people sitting in a room it's created by a computer program that compiles 3 years worth of data and spits out predicted performance for the next year to create a list of the top 10 for the upcoming season. They call it "The Shredder" if that adds any excitement to things for you. I think Jeffers actually made one of the 5 individual lists created by the folks on the show if I'm remembering correctly.

I wonder how the shredder did predicting Jeffers year in 2023 after 2022 and 2021? 😉

 

[Linus]

I was really excited about Jeffers the first half of the year. He improved so much with his throwing and blocking balls in the dirt prior to that he was really poor at both. Unfortunately he seemed to regress in both areas in the second half. I’ll be watching those aspects as much as his hitting going forward. 

[JD-TWINS]

IMO Jeffers ranking or value have zero to do with framing or automated strike zone. Not applicable in a player’s worth.

I think that as his Games started increase and his AB’s increase, his offense likely declines a bit post August 1st due to the grind.

Seems he has earned 60% plus of the starts until mid-August and then taper him back closer to 50% to keep him fresh for October. Seems to be common sense. Playing Vazquez 8 more games than writers here think he deserves, “…..at .200 OPS difference” is a minor issue for the Team. Nobody in the organization care or should care where Jeffers gets ranked by MLB Network. 95-100 starts would be plenty with a defensive veteran like Vazquez to fall back on as alternative.

Another writer’s comment said it, “……C offense from a good catcher is a bonus”. Decent defense from the 2 guys we play and a blended “average offensive year” would be a nice outcome.

[Blyleven2011]

Catcher is important position for a team , they are the leader on the field  ( or at least they used to be ) ...

I'll take Vazquez defense over Ryan ,  and any hitting Vazquez  does Is a plus , he shouldn't be any worse than last years batting average  ...

New team and adjustments might have been  a factor for Vazquez  in my opinion and Twins fans might just be praising  Vazquez if he does take a step forward  in 2024 ...

Jeffers is an average catcher ,  and maybe above average hitter , this year we'll see the real evaluation of Jeffers and what he will be in his career  ....