Is Ryan Jeffers Underrated?

Sorry after reading a few of these,  I think I should post something like. . . Are Twins fans underrating Tony O's Cubanos.  It seems we are undervaluing everything LOL.  Although you know me,  lets throw Kepler in the mix LOL.  

Hardest position. Yes. Overrated. No. He caught roughly 1/2 of the Twins games.  Yeah yeah yeah I know catchers aren't supposed to go 130 games anymore. Although I don't know the reason. But let's see what kind of numbers he puts up if he goes over 100. If he can duplicate 2023 then you can debate it.

Ryan Jeffers is a really decent catcher. I do not believe he is underrated. Part of his worth is how he has been used. When Baldelli divides the catching duties evenly Jeffers does a really good job. I'm not convinced his load could rise above 110 games. Vazquez is a very good catcher and I expect he will hit a bit better this season. Any offense from the catcher is a bonus. We saw what happens when Jeffers is used everyday during the playoffs. Still I'm a big fan of Jeffers. The Twins do need to work on developing more options for the catching position.

ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490).

We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.

In looking over the catchers on that top 10 list I see Kirk as the only one that might be overrated. I still wouldn't rate Jeffers above Kirk though. Also in not knowing where Jeffers would actually land overall, I'd say he's more along the lines of being unrated as opposed to being underrated. He just doesn't get the reps these other guys do and that hurts his case. However if he was playing more his lines might not look as sharp as they do.

I am also not convinced that we are measuring the impact of pitch framing correctly. We don't measure at-bats on a pitch-by-pitch basis giving the hitter credit for each ball they take or strike they miss, we only measure the result of the at-bat. I have a hard time believing Jeffers was that bad when the pitching staff led the league in strikeouts.

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am also not convinced that we are measuring the impact of pitch framing correctly. We don't measure at-bats on a pitch-by-pitch basis giving the hitter credit for each ball they take or strike they miss, we only measure the result of the at-bat. I have a hard time believing Jeffers was that bad when the pitching staff led the league in strikeouts.

Jeffers was considered below average as a pitch framer by metrics, but was above average overall defensively using the same metrics. Automated umpires will make it all moot anyway.

FWIW Among American League catchers, Seattle's Cal Raleigh posted the second-highest fWAR at 4.7 to Ryan Jeffers' 2.7:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=c&qual=20

His mother strongly concurs with the "underrated" assessment. I will just hope for continued improvement.

How much difference is there from the 5th best to the 14th best? Does it really matter?

Underrated?  No.  Overrated? Yes like many current Twins players.  Pitch framing is a joke and an embarrassment to umpires and baseball in general.  It's understandable for 3rd and 4th graders but has absolutely no business in professional baseball.

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

ZIPS and Steamer have him regressing towards a league average hitter. One difference is they both have BABiPs under .300. Last year it was .359 following seasons of .269 and .259. He bats right handed and is in the middle of the Twins in exit velocity, barrels and hard hit rate. You wouldn’t expect him to have a BABiP well above league average. Based on his contact his statcast xSLG changed little from 2022 to 2023 (.424 to .432) while his actual SLG was vastly different (.363 to .490).

We probably should expect something in between the two seasons for 2024. A league average hitter is valuable at catcher. It may not earn him a top 10 ranking.

 

It you look at 2020 he had a similar batting line with an even higher babip. Yes it a smaller sample size. Yes it is very likely some of these things regress, but he did say he unlocked a new approach which I think he said included some things he had gotten away from. I hope he is right, he seemed very confident at the time. Of course this game is very good at crushing confidence, lol. The .858 OPS and 134 OPS+ are pretty sweet for any player and especially a catcher. Baseball Reference projects him to have a .764 OPS which is above average and again well above average for a catcher. That would be more like the in-between you mention. My guess (hope) is he does better than that which would be still be possible even with a drop in some stats like babip. For reference the league average OPS for catchers last year was .694.

I was really excited about Jeffers the first half of the year. He improved so much with his throwing and blocking balls in the dirt prior to that he was really poor at both. Unfortunately he seemed to regress in both areas in the second half. I’ll be watching those aspects as much as his hitting going forward. 

Catcher is important position for a team , they are the leader on the field  ( or at least they used to be ) ...

I'll take Vazquez defense over Ryan ,  and any hitting Vazquez  does Is a plus , he shouldn't be any worse than last years batting average  ...

New team and adjustments might have been  a factor for Vazquez  in my opinion and Twins fans might just be praising  Vazquez if he does take a step forward  in 2024 ...

Jeffers is an average catcher ,  and maybe above average hitter , this year we'll see the real evaluation of Jeffers and what he will be in his career  ....

21 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That umpires might unevenly affect the efficacy of framing is a good and underdiscussed point. I will say that more than one of the stat frameworks that evaluate the skill make an attempt to correct for that effect, but it's tough to do perfectly. So, I guess, is adjusting for parks and league run environments, among other things.

Me, personally: I hope the strike zone is never automated. It's part of the art of the game. Sport should be art, more than science. We lose something huge and essential when we let it go from one thing to the other. 

I'm sorry Matthew I disagree with you. I'm all in for the art of the game when it comes to stealing a base, taking an extra base, getting a great jump on a batted ball, running a great route, great AB between pitcher & hitter while both go through adjustments. Managers manage a great game by adjusting to the conditions, Picking off runners, throwing behind runners, Catchers throwing out a base stealer, calling a great game plus many other heads-up plays all are artful & legit.

Technically stealing signs, using sticky stuff & stealing strikes aren't artful & should not be legit. Why does hockey have a goal light? Don't they want to be artful? No, they just want a fair game and goals to be goals. Strikes should be strikes not be determined by fooling the ump or by umps biases based on veteran, rookie, & or team. Electronic Strike Zone will not take away from the game it'll make it fair.