The Twins Aren't Shying Away from Strikeouts. Are They Right?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins front office are sticking to their guns, following a record-setting season of strikeouts at the plate. Let's examine the merits of this approach, and the thinking behind it.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Fans were understandably exasperated by the amount of whiffing they witnessed from Twins hitters this year. Minnesota set Major League Baseball's all-time strikeout record in the regular season, and the team's playoff run ended with a parade of punchouts as they scrambled futilely to get a runner on base and mount a threat. If you asked random local baseball fans what they'd like to see from next year's club, "fewer strikeouts" would probably be a common refrain.

That's why it's interesting that Twins leadership is making no bones about their intention to stick with the same basic philosophy that guided them in 2023, even if it means plenty more strikeouts are in the cards. 

In mid-October, shortly after the team was eliminated by Houston, Bobby Nightengale wrote a piece for the Star Tribune titled, "Strikeouts or not, Twins will not stop swinging for the fences." More recently, MLB.com beat writer Do-Hyoung Park echoed a similar sentiment with last week's headline, "Do Twins need to cut down on strikeouts? Not necessarily." Both articles include quotes from Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli firmly vouching for the controversial approach spearheaded by David Popkins and the hitting group. Our Matthew Trueblood looked at the same subject back at the beginning of the team's playoff run, for Twins Daily Caretakers.

"Of course, it’s a very easy blinking light that everyone can look at and talk about,” Baldelli said of the strikeouts. “There are certain points in every game where you do want to find a way to put the ball in play. But in the vast majority of at-bats, that’s not part of the conversation. I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat and go deep into a count and possibly strike out, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it."

As Baldelli outlines, the strikeout isn't any kind of aspiration, but rather an accepted risk to achieve the kinds of outcomes they want: walks and home runs. The Twins ranked second among AL teams in walks and tied for first in homers.

“We weren’t trying to strike out more,” said Falvey. “But at the same time, we were trying to find ways to get to more power. We’ve all observed these playoffs to this point. What’s mattered most is power, the ability to hit for power. The reality is that striking out less this postseason has not led to more wins.”

According to Park, Falvey is fond of pointing out that statistically, hitting home runs in the playoffs has proven to be more beneficial than striking out is detrimental. In 2023, postseason, teams that out-homered opponents went 29-7; those who struck out less went 17-19.

Obviously, it would be ideal to have players throughout the lineup who can hit for power and draw walks without striking out frequently. But guess what? Those hitters are among the most valuable in baseball. They're really hard to find and really expensive to sign or acquire via trade. For a team in Minnesota's position, scaling back an already limited payroll, attempting to assemble an elite lineup through this means is essentially a non-starter. They can try to develop bats like that from the top of the draft (and hopefully have a couple on the way, in Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins), but otherwise, they have to take the bad with the good.

How bad are strikeouts, really? That's the question that folks like Falvey and Baldelli would pose, and challenge you to think more deeply about. It does seem telling that Minnesota's offense was well above average, in terms of runs scored and OPS, despite striking out more than any other club in baseball history. Maybe it's also noteworthy that, despite this ignominious distinction, these Twins were the ones to finally break through in the playoffs. 

Meanwhile, if you want to see the opposite end of the spectrum, look no further than across the division to the rival Cleveland Guardians. They struck out fewer times than any other team in the majors this year, and their offense was completely punchless and ineffectual. Cleveland hit the fewest homers in the American League, had the second-lowest slugging percentage, and scored the fourth-fewest runs.

No matter how annoyed you were watching the Twins offense hack through one of its sleepy stretches of nonstop strikeouts, it was better than watching the Guardians feebly tap into an endless parade of groundouts and weak fly balls, all year long. Cleveland produced the lowest Barrels per plate appearance, lowest Hard Hit rate, and lowest average exit velocity of any major-league team this year. Now THAT is an unwatchable lineup.

Yes, the Twins need to cut back the strikeouts to some extent. That's bound to happen organically, with the departure of Joey Gallo and his 300-plus plate appearances moving the needle on its own. But the coaching staff and front office is making it clear: we should not expect the team to fundamentally pivot away from a philosophy that prioritizes power at the expense of contact. 

And if we're taking an honest look at the evidence, I'm not sure we should want them to.

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[Eris]

Most frustrating was the lack of situational awareness to the hitting. When the bases are loaded with 2 outs, a single is a game changer. 

 I think looking at SO vs HR is not a fine enough statistic. Run efficiency with RISP and 2 outs is probably what matters most (and how SO negatively impact that). 
 

looking at the top 30 fWAR players in 2023, only 5 had more than 25% K rate. Almost half of the Twins players had a K% > 25%. I am not sure I buy into SO don’t matter philosophy. 

[Riverbrian]

Great article

It all makes perfect sense

Pitchers want hitters to swing at crap and they throw them crap until they make a mistake or run out of real estate. This dance between hitter and pitcher is going to drive up pitch counts including getting to two strikes... which makes strikeouts a natural by-product of this very sensible approach.  

It all makes perfect sense except for one thing. 

This isn't new territory. The Twins are not special, New ground isn't being broken.

All hitters need to take this approach or they won't be in the league long. 

They shouldn't change approach but they really need to care about striking out too much. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think personnel will play a part here too. Approach can be the same, but that’s one reason I’m excited to see both Martin and Miranda on the team this year. Both of them are more contact oriented than (presumably) their counterparts from last year (Taylor and Gallo) so that change alone, if the plate appearances are the same, should drop the team total for strikeouts quite a bit, right?

[mikelink45]

I am still liking the idea of a power hitter adjusting to get any hit when we need to advance a runner and score the tying or winning run.  We have seen MLB have many players who could hit HRs and not strikeout.

For example DiMaggio and Berra had more than 359 HRs and less than 599 Ks.  Maris had 67 Ks when he hit 61 HRs.   Check out this Sabr list.  

I know that we cannot go backward in the way MLB plays (although the rule changes demonstrate that that is a desired outcome for many of us.  

Gallo is gone - I am so glad and so are so many others.  I know people do not want to see BA anymore (I am an exception), but all or nothing is not winning baseball.  The Acuna, Soto, Freeman, Betts types are the stars and do both.  If we cannot find players that have that skill level then we need to balance the lineup with players like Julien, Arraez with players like Wallner and hope that Correa and Lewis become the superstar batters that combine both. 

[MinnInPa]

the K is what is wrong with the game today ... i would rather see 9 Luis Arraez types in a lineup everyday...even if there wasnt a 20 HR guy in the bunch. its nauseating watching Twins swailing away at pitches in the dirt or 3 ft outside..or even worse taking the fast ball right down the pike for called strike 3. put the ball in play boys .. makes the game easier to watch

[Blyleven2011]

How can you say the strikeouts has its merits ...

3 strikeouts at target field in the bottom of the ninth  inning ended the playoffs for the Twins  ...

Yes pitch counts might have merit but no adjustments to hitting with 2 strikes  has no merit as they strikeout and no contact made ...

What do we need a pitching coach for if we are just a boom or bust hitting squad  ...

Contact is more exciting than the strikeouts  ...

The strikeouts that bother me the worst are pitches that are close and the batter doesn't swing and is called strike 3 with his bat on his shoulder ...

[PDX Twin]

Lots of wins by an unwatchable team won't keep me subscribing to MLB.TV. If it's just wins, I can check the box score and don't have to endure 2.5 hours of tedious home-run derby. I watch games for exciting plays; neither homeruns nor strikeouts qualifies.

[TwinsDr2021]

We are all idiots, if the Twins would have just struck out more in the Houston series they would have won it.

"The reality is that striking out less this postseason has not led to more wins.” said Falvey.

The reality is that good hitters are the most important part of scoring runs, when your hitters aren't that good you can them try for more power, why not?

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do think personnel will play a part here too. Approach can be the same, but that’s one reason I’m excited to see both Martin and Miranda on the team this year. Both of them are more contact oriented than (presumably) their counterparts from last year (Taylor and Gallo) so that change alone, if the plate appearances are the same, should drop the team total for strikeouts quite a bit, right?

Again, we agree! This team struggled for long stretches when the lineup was homogeneous. It was just too easy for opposing pitchers when the lineup could all be approached the same way.

the lineup really clicked when Gallo and Buxton were benched in favor of Julien, while also a 3 true outcomes hitter, took a different approach to get there

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Great article.  As fans, we may not like watching the strikeouts, but the approach worked as overall the offense did what it was supposed to do.  While it would be nice to have players who could be more effective at situational hitting, that’s not who we have.  We can compare Twins hitters to guys like DiMaggio, but those are all time greats.   When we had a guy more like that in Joe Mauer, people complained about his “punch and Judy” approach.   Strikeouts are a by.product that are here to stay.  Get used to them. 

[arby58]

Gallo led the team in strikeouts, with 142 in 282 at bats (!), so you would expect the average to go down regardless of what else happens. Some of this may not necessarily carry over from year to year. If you look at the top five teams in Ks in 2023 (Twins, Mariners, Rockies, Angels, Reds) and compare it to 2022 (Angels, Braves, Pirates, Brewers, Giants), there is only one team on both lists.

I'm more interested in taking good at bats than just avoiding strikeouts. How many times have you seen the lead off batter in an inning hit a soft fly ball for an out on the first pitch? Those can be real buzz kills. Then there were times you'd watch a Julien battle for 8 or 9 pitches and then strike out (or walk). Those at bats seem more likely to be impactful on the game, as it is stressful for the pitcher and drives up his pitch count. The Yankees used to be famous for that 'grind it out' approach to hitting, and maybe the Twins can do it too.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Again, we agree! This team struggled for long stretches when the lineup was homogeneous. It was just too easy for opposing pitchers when the lineup could all be approached the same way.

the lineup really clicked when Gallo and Buxton were benched in favor of Julien, while also a 3 true outcomes hitter, took a different approach to get there

I'm HOPEFUL a healthy-ish Buxton also won't strikeout at the same rate as last year. He has been better in the past when both his knees were healthy.

Also, Julien; he struck out looking all the time it felt like. I'm curious if that is something he is working on this offseason?

[Karbo]

What I see as the biggest part of the K problem is lack of a 2 strike approach, especially with guys in scoring position. I have been a baseball fan since the Twins came to Minn. I have seen so many power hitters, many hitting over 40 a year, with K rates under 25%. Most had a basic 2 strike approach, but could tattoo a 2 strike pitch. To say power hitters are going to K over 25% of at bats is nothing more then a big copout.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

25 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am still liking the idea of a power hitter adjusting to get any hit when we need to advance a runner and score the tying or winning run.  We have seen MLB have many players who could hit HRs and not strikeout.

For example DiMaggio and Berra had more than 359 HRs and less than 599 Ks.  Maris had 67 Ks when he hit 61 HRs.   Check out this Sabr list.  

I know that we cannot go backward in the way MLB plays (although the rule changes demonstrate that that is a desired outcome for many of us.  

Why would we want to go back in time to when starting pitchers pitched the whole game, every game?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm HOPEFUL a healthy-ish Buxton also won't strikeout at the same rate as last year. He has been better in the past when both his knees were healthy.

Also, Julien; he struck out looking all the time it felt like. I'm curious if that is something he is working on this offseason?

I’m hopeful if Buxton isn’t healthy they won’t keep limping him to the batters box and then sit down feebly.

Julien led the team in walks and walk rate. I think his approach will be pretty stable.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Last year he was clearly not right from the previous offseason’s knee surgery. He tried to play through and couldn’t. All the reports now are he is healthy, but we will see what that means come spring training.

But yeah, it was hard watching those at bats 

[Old Twins Cap]

On the one hand, if Michael Cuddyer had struck out in the fourth inning of a game in Toronto in 2010(?), the one where he hit a ground ball up the middle that resulted in their SS inflicting Morneau's career-altering head injury, you could see some positives of a more K-prone squad.

On the other, baseball is a form of entertainment and not just an algorithym-centric formula for defeating opponents, however masterful in execution.

Averaging 15 K's  a game, means five full innings of watching pretty much nothing happen.  Remember, most fans at stadiums cannot see, nor fully appreciate the subtleties of what the pitcher is doing to defeat the hitter.  It's all over in a blink and what happened?   Hard to say from most spots in the stadium, but the hitter heads back to the dugout, carrying disappointment and a bat.

Too many Ks is a long-term problem for a sport that must compete against a lot of other venues for the public's attention, time and money.

How MLB handles this will make or break the sport in the next couple of decades.

 

[jjswol]

41 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Great article.  As fans, we may not like watching the strikeouts, but the approach worked as overall the offense did what it was supposed to do.  While it would be nice to have players who could be more effective at situational hitting, that’s not who we have.  We can compare Twins hitters to guys like DiMaggio, but those are all time greats.   When we had a guy more like that in Joe Mauer, people complained about his “punch and Judy” approach.   Strikeouts are a by.product that are here to stay.  Get used to them. 

Calling Mauer a "punch and Judy" hitter is really stretching the facts.

[Riverbrian]

It's a trade off - First in Home Runs and First in Walks is a good thing. 

However... The Strikeouts drag that success downward. 

 

Twins

First(Tied) in Home Runs(233) - First in Strikeouts (1654)

Second in Walks (594) - Fifth in OBP - Fifth in Runs Scored (758)

 

Rangers

First (Tied) in Home Runs (233) -  Ninth in Strikeouts (1416)

First in Walks (599) - First in OBP - First in Runs Scored (881)

 

Angels

Third in Home Runs (231) - Third in Strikeouts (1524)

Seventh in Walks (518) - Ninth in OBP - Ninth in Runs Scored (739)

 

Mariners

Seventh in Home Runs (210) - Second in Strikeouts (1603)

Sixth in Walks (548) - Seventh in OBP - Seventh in Runs Scored (758)

 

 

 

 

[twinzcynic]

One of the things that bothers me most about this regime is this:

On offense, K's are no big deal. In fact they're borderline encouraged!

On pitching: K's are the most important thing. Sell out for K's regardless of the outcome.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am still liking the idea of a power hitter adjusting to get any hit when we need to advance a runner and score the tying or winning run.  We have seen MLB have many players who could hit HRs and not strikeout.

For example DiMaggio and Berra had more than 359 HRs and less than 599 Ks.  Maris had 67 Ks when he hit 61 HRs.   Check out this Sabr list.  

That is not even close to the same MLB. DiMaggio routinely faced pitchers throwing fastballs in the upper 80s and nobody had a slider above 90MPH.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Contact is more exciting than the strikeouts  ...

You must have been thrilled watching Carlos Correa ground into double plays last summer.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If the hypothesis in the article above, that batters striking out, but at the same time swinging hard, is not as harmful to a team's chances of winning, as is batters who have weak swings with resulting weak contact, which lessens a team's chances for victory,  then I ask this question: Should the Twins pitching staff be built to induce weak contact, rather than trying to achieve strikeouts ? 

[MGX]

Falvey can refer to the SSS of the playoffs if he wants. All he needs to do is look at his own team from last year to see a different view...

In the first 83 games last year our lineup featured more all or nothing hitters like Gallo 6.3% HR rate/42.8% K rate (61 of his 111 games played & most of his FT games) & Buxton 4.9% HR rate/31.4% K rate(65 of his 85 games & again most of his FT games).  In those 83 games we scored 353 runs or an average of 4.25 runs/game. 

In the last 79 games players like Kepler 4.9% HR rate/21.6% K rate (74 of his 130 games played) & Royce Lewis 6.3% HR rate/23% K rate (33 of his 58 games). In those 79 games we scored 427 runs or an average of 5.4 runs/game.

Also, didn't Royce Lewis speak out against the all or nothing approach soon after the sweep in Atlanta? Someone can correct if I'm wrong on that.

This team has potential to score a lot of runs if we can focus a bit more on putting the ball in play. The HR's will come without focusing on them & when they do there is a better chance of having people on base. As was pointed out above having a balanced lineup is beneficial.
 

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Also, Julien; he struck out looking all the time it felt like. I'm curious if that is something he is working on this offseason?

He won't be a rookie next season which should help him get better calls from the umpires.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Should the Twins pitching staff be built to induce weak contact, rather than trying to achieve strikeouts ? 

So you want to emphasize changeups instead of sliders? Last season was one of the best Twins pitching staffs I've ever seen but I guess they could throw out what is working and try something else.

[SteveLV]

DJL44 beat me to it.  Pitching in the modern game is so much better than 50-70 years ago it is not even comparable.

Multiple relievers each game throwing over 95 with wicked breaking pitches is just very difficult to hit.

I think all of us would rather see the Twins have fewer K's.  Get better hitters, or get your existing hitters to hit better.

Julien is a terrific leadoff hitter. He should have had at least 10 more walks and 10 fewer K's based upon lousy 3rd strike calls last season.  He would greatly benefit from the RoboUmp.  Hopefully his reputation as a discerning eye at the plate will start to get him more close calls in the coming years.

[Dennesey55347]

When your RBI leader is at 66 in back to back seasons, sabermetrics become moot when literally no one is reliable for a clutch at bat or a team-carrying season. Basically, a balanced contribution load from a bunch of meh to decent producers. Pitching saved us from a top 10 pick in the draft. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Most frustrating was the lack of situational awareness to the hitting. When the bases are loaded with 2 outs, a single is a game changer. 

 I think looking at SO vs HR is not a fine enough statistic. Run efficiency with RISP and 2 outs is probably what matters most (and how SO negatively impact that). 
 

looking at the top 30 fWAR players in 2023, only 5 had more than 25% K rate. Almost half of the Twins players had a K% > 25%. I am not sure I buy into SO don’t matter philosophy. 

Good post Eris.