The Twins Aren't Shying Away from Strikeouts. Are They Right?

[RpR]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Knuckle ball pitchers aren't known for their strikeouts. They're known for inducing weak contact.

There are dozens of Satchel Paige quality pitchers in any given season.... I do think DiMaggio would have had more strikeouts if they hadn't banned Paige from pitching against him for most of his career.

LOL, really now.

Was Satchel Paige the best pitcher ever?

 

 

 

His legacy was best summed up by baseball greats Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Dizzy Dean, and Bob Feller, who all proclaimed Satchel Paige to be the greatest pitcher ever.

[DocBauer]

I have read additional reports concerning the comments Falvey and Rocoo stated and they support the numbers listed above. (an no, I'm too tired, too busy and too lazy to do any research right now, sorry). Power and BB/OBP% lead to a high OPS which leads to runs scored. Regular season and post season.

The issue is NOT the approach. It's the implementation of the approach that makes the difference. I.e. the players involved. The FO attempted to set up a lineup in 2023 that would provide power and OB%. They DID NOT attempt to set up a lineup would lead the league in K's, any more than they hoped Correa would struggle with a bad foot all season, have a poor season, (for the most part), and lead the world in grounded in to double plays. (which, BTW, are often worse than K's). Unfortunately, the Gallo experiment to find himself again didn't work, except for the first month, and in fact got even worse. Taylor and Buxton were both windmills, and that's NOT a knock on Taylor who was a life saver in CF for us last season.

The power and high BB/OB% plan of attack still needs guys who don't all K at 30%.  It should be a mix of guys who can also "hit". And for a myriad of different reasons, the Twins were lacking in "hit" ability the first half of 2023. That's part of the reason the offense did better once Wallner, Lewis, and Julien were up. And let's not forget Kirilloff being maybe the best hitter on the team for about 2-3 months. 

The whole, spectacularly unbelievable ineptitude with bases loaded flipped later in the season. Now, some of that was natural regression back to the norm. But it might have also coincided with some of those same lineup changes.

But let's flip this on end and look at Kepler. Instead of trying to be too cute, try too hard to be perfect, he just started putting the bat on the ball HARD. And suddenly, he didn't have all of the weak grounders and pop-ups that plagued him save the occasional XBH. He suddenly raised his AVG, AND his SLG with a more aggressive and powerful approach. His K percentage WENT UP, and yet, he was a better, more productive hitter.

So the whole point is power and BB and a fair number of K's for your lineup. But it works a heck of a lot better without a guy K-ing at a 40% rate, and a few other guys who can hit better than .200. It's not a problem with the philosophy, it's just having the guys...healthy guys...able to carry out the execution. No Gallo, Lewis, Wallner, Julien, a healthier AK, Buxton, Correa, a couple guys like Martin and Lee about to graduate, etc, etc, there is a really nice mix of what they need. Power and BB/OB%. But there are STILL going to be a fair amount of K's. Just...probably...never again quite as many as 2023.

They were already top 5 in runs, HR, OB%, BB. Folks...that's good stuff. Imagine a little more health, a little more growth from the young players, and just a small drop in K%. Wow!

 

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

Depends.   It’s a viable strategy over a long season.

But, we saw how well it worked out in the playoffs.  You still have to be able play fundamental baseball, move runners over, etc.  We couldn’t do that and struck out too often with RISP.  It cost us the series.

Some of these metrics and stats are great.  But, you also need situational context.  Theory is one thing, real life with human elements is another.

I'm not saying I disagree with you in principle, but, isn't that what the Twins did in the Toronto series?

It didn't work against Houston. 

Does that mean it's not correct when it works a majority of the time?

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

For fun here is % of PA's resulting in either a BB and SO created simply by adding BB% and SO% together. 

Do these numbers suggest which batters are working the counts or missing meatballs. 

Do these numbers suggest which batters hit those mistake pitches or made weak contact with balls they shouldn't have touched. 

What worked for Julien did not work for Gallo or Larnach. What worked for Lewis did not work for Correa or Vazquez. 

I draw no conclusions.  

Gallo - .573

Julien - .471

Larnach - .467

Garlick - .434

Wallner - .425

Buxton - .415

Taylor - .402

Luplow - .383

Jeffers - .377

Polanco - .362

Kirilloff - .339

Castro - .325

Lewis - .314

Solano - .311

Kepler - .308

Correa - .308

Vazquez - .301

Farmer - .295

Stevenson - .250

MIranda - .217

Gordon - .129

 

 

 

Fascinating. But what does it mean?  LOL

On the one hand, I want to look at the top 2 guys on the list, Gallo and Julien. To me, the difference here is very obvious. Gallo would hit some bombs, he would BB some, K at a tremendous 40% rate, but that's basically IT. Meanwhile, Julien would hit HR/XBH and K and BB for a good OB%, but he could/would also HIT. 

That's the difference, IMO.

The problem is, I'm not sure that works as we go up and down your list here. But there might be some correlation similar that I'm just not seeing right now.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Fascinating. But what does it mean?  LOL

On the one hand, I want to look at the top 2 guys on the list, Gallo and Julien. To me, the difference here is very obvious. Gallo would hit some bombs, he would BB some, K at a tremendous 40% rate, but that's basically IT. Meanwhile, Julien would hit HR/XBH and K and BB for a good OB%, but he could/would also HIT. 

That's the difference, IMO.

The problem is, I'm not sure that works as we go up and down your list here. But there might be some correlation similar that I'm just not seeing right now.

In just Doubles, Triples and Home runs, Julien had 33, Gallo had 31, with Julien getting more Doubles and Gallo Home Runs.

In singles, Julien had 56, where Gallo, had 29; it was Gallo's late season collapse, especially the last month that totally destroyed his numbers.

It seems like after Gallo whent four for four, he fell apart.

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Fascinating. But what does it mean?  LOL

On the one hand, I want to look at the top 2 guys on the list, Gallo and Julien. To me, the difference here is very obvious. Gallo would hit some bombs, he would BB some, K at a tremendous 40% rate, but that's basically IT. Meanwhile, Julien would hit HR/XBH and K and BB for a good OB%, but he could/would also HIT. 

That's the difference, IMO.

The problem is, I'm not sure that works as we go up and down your list here. But there might be some correlation similar that I'm just not seeing right now.

Yeah I don't know either.

I just did it as a stands to reason exercise. 

If you strikeout more because you are working the count. Then you would also in theory walk more because you are working the count so I added them together.

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, RpR said:

His legacy was best summed up by baseball greats Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Dizzy Dean, and Bob Feller, who all proclaimed Satchel Paige to be the greatest pitcher ever.

Just based on results Paige might not even be the greatest Negro League pitcher ever (Joe Williams has a very strong argument). The Negro Leagues were a breaking ball (and spitball) league. There were very few pitchers with a great fastball and they all show up in the stats clearly ahead of their peers.

Paige was amazing at his peak because of his dominant fastball. He was also injured in 1938 (his age 31 season) and had to completely re-invent himself as a pitcher. That's where all the offspeed pitches came from.

Based on radar gun readings, spin rates and strikeout rates we are currently seeing the best pitching in the history of MLB. League average is better than Paige was in his MLB career.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Just based on results Paige might not even be the greatest Negro League pitcher ever (Joe Williams has a very strong argument). The Negro Leagues were a breaking ball (and spitball) league. There were very few pitchers with a great fastball and they all show up in the stats clearly ahead of their peers.

Paige was amazing at his peak because of his dominant fastball. He was also injured in 1938 (his age 31 season) and had to completely re-invent himself as a pitcher. That's where all the offspeed pitches came from.

Based on radar gun readings, spin rates and strikeout rates we are currently seeing the best pitching in the history of MLB. League average is better than Paige was in his MLB career.

Many professional baseball players that faced him have said his pitches were in a league of their own, NO ONE, else ever could duplicate what he did to make the baseball do what it did.

You can throw numbers out there  but I will take Ted Williams word over any theoretial numbers -- to each his own.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

So you want to emphasize changeups instead of sliders? Last season was one of the best Twins pitching staffs I've ever seen but I guess they could throw out what is working and try something else.

I agree that last year's Twins pitching staff was one of the best, if not the best, I have ever had the pleasure of watching pitch. And that really was my point in my argument of disagreeing with the premise in the article that hitters'  strikeouts are less important than hitters making weak contact. Both are bad.  My guess is that a team should strive to minimize hitters striking out so much and try to get more runners on base and advance runners by any means, including sometimes the weak contact bunt and the weak contact of hitting behind the runner to advance the runner.  Not exclusively, but more than I have seen from the Twins of late. The importance of hitting according to the situation, is not emphasized by the Twins hitters and manager, as much as I would like.  

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

To follow up on this point, how many times did Julien get called out looking and the pitch tracker showed the pitch was a ball?  I'm not sure he will get better calls until robo-umps are introduced.

This is a fair point. However, I do believe that umpires have high expectations of themselves. After the season there is reflection and research as well. Perhaps the blue will see that Julien's respectable 2:1 K to BB rate was less than what the challenge and ABS system presented for Julien in the minor leagues. There were at least 15 called strikes that could have sent him to first base instead of back to the dugout. Numbers like 110- Ks and 80+ BB not only look better but present better pitches for Eddie down the road. As others have pointed out, Julien is not the bat to successfully hit pitches off the plate and while people may be frustrated that he takes those close pitches which should correctly be called balls, they are not likely to fall in love with him swinging wildly outside the zone. He just isn't that type of hitter.

[wabene]

11 hours ago, Old Twins Cap said:

On the other, baseball is a form of entertainment and not just an algorithym-centric formula for defeating opponents, however masterful in execution.

This is a great sentence

10 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's a trade off - First in Home Runs and First in Walks is a good thing. 

However... The Strikeouts drag that success downward. 

 

Twins

First(Tied) in Home Runs(233) - First in Strikeouts (1654)

Second in Walks (594) - Fifth in OBP - Fifth in Runs Scored (758)

 

Rangers

First (Tied) in Home Runs (233) -  Ninth in Strikeouts (1416)

First in Walks (599) - First in OBP - First in Runs Scored (881)

 

Angels

Third in Home Runs (231) - Third in Strikeouts (1524)

Seventh in Walks (518) - Ninth in OBP - Ninth in Runs Scored (739)

 

Mariners

Seventh in Home Runs (210) - Second in Strikeouts (1603)

Sixth in Walks (548) - Seventh in OBP - Seventh in Runs Scored (758)

 

 

 

 

Here we are right back to Moneyball, KISS OBP is everything, lol, love it. 

[wabene]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

An increase in talent will lead to a decrease in strikeouts. The Twins have the same approach as all the best offenses in baseball: look for pitches you can drive and don't swing unless you get one of those pitches, then swing to do damage. The Twins problem isn't the strategy it's the lack of skill to be able to do damage on more pitches in more areas of the zone and to make their swings count more often. Although, I do think they can get a little passive at times looking to raise pitch counts.

I'd also like to see some better situational hitting, but that's also easier said than done. Yes, they're all major league hitters, but, as others have pointed out, pitchers these days are really good. "Just learn to go the other way" is all well and nice, but when a ball is coming in at 90+ MPH while moving 12 inches vertically and horizontally it's not so easy. And as Washington and Cleveland helped show us last year, simply putting the ball in play doesn't actually lead to good things happening frequently like people like to pretend it does. It's not that easy to be Luis Arraez. If it were there'd be more Luis Arraez's. It's really hard to succeed in MLB while making soft contact.

The current 3 true outcome style of game is far less entertaining than the strategies of old. It's a problem the league should definitely be trying to find ways to fix. But I don't know why we'd want the Twins to put themselves at a disadvantage by changing to a strategy that would make it harder for them to score runs. Would people really be happier watching the Twins lose more simply because they struck out less? I'll take the wins from the runs with the Ks over the losses from the lack of runs with the weak contact.

I think the simple point to make here is talent wins out. Want less strikeouts? Get better hitters. You want pitchers to pitch deeper into games? Get better pitchers. 

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Many professional baseball players that faced him have said his pitches were in a league of their own, NO ONE, else ever could duplicate what he did to make the baseball do what it did.

You can throw numbers out there  but I will take Ted Williams word over any theoretial numbers -- to each his own.

Paige did have very large hands, which helped him spin the ball. Young Satchel Paige was clearly one of the best pitchers ever, though I have trouble believing nobody could ever duplicate his results. Old Satchel Paige was still a remarkably good pitcher  for his age but probably wouldn't be able to pitch in today's MLB.

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, Karbo said:

What I see as the biggest part of the K problem is lack of a 2 strike approach, especially with guys in scoring position. I have been a baseball fan since the Twins came to Minn. I have seen so many power hitters, many hitting over 40 a year, with K rates under 25%. Most had a basic 2 strike approach, but could tattoo a 2 strike pitch. To say power hitters are going to K over 25% of at bats is nothing more then a big copout.

What is the successful outcome rate with a”2 strike approach” versus a not 2 strike approach?  Statistical, not opinion.  

[Karbo]

6 minutes ago, old nurse said:

What is the successful outcome rate with a”2 strike approach” versus a not 2 strike approach?  Statistical, not opinion.  

A successful outcome is putting the ball in play. Could be a hit, maybe a bad bounce, maybe get in the lights and lost, or maybe just an error. Better odds then striking out which has 0 chance of success!

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yeah I don't know either.

I just did it as a stands to reason exercise. 

If you strikeout more because you are working the count. Then you would also in theory walk more because you are working the count so I added them together.

But, if you don’t walk much you still may be just unsuccessful at working the count

 

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

A successful outcome is putting the ball in play. Could be a hit, maybe a bad bounce, maybe get in the lights and lost, or maybe just an error. Better odds then striking out which has 0 chance of success!

So basically you do not know if there is a successful 2 swing approach that is any different from how a batter normally swings the bat.  There should be some sort of magical thing that works 

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, old nurse said:

But, if you don’t walk much you still may be just unsuccessful at working the count

 

Yep

And it's possible that you are working the count because you flat out missed the earlier mistake meatball. 

[The Mad King]

Nice theory they have (see Earl Weaver - pitching, defense, and 3 run homers) but they have to remember Mad Kings Rule #1. Or maybe Rule #76, I don't know - past performance does not guarantee future results.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

So basically you do not know if there is a successful 2 swing approach that is any different from how a batter normally swings the bat.  There should be some sort of magical thing that works 

Back in my day it meant you would choke up on the bat a bit to give better bat control, and be able to foul off anything close until you got a pitch to hit hard, usually a line drive somewhere.

[Guest]

On 12/22/2023 at 12:46 PM, Nick Nelson said:

This is an interesting point, but I'd note that strikeouts from the pitching side tend to correlate a lot more with success than strikeouts from the hitting side correlate with failure. Why is that?

I would suggest - because pitchers on balance have less control over what's happening with balls in play compared to hitters, who are aiming to maximize power and exit velocity when they make contact.

You could say the Twins are obsessed with getting strikeouts on the pitching side but I think it's more about limiting contact and especially hard contact, which they did a reasonably good job of. Twins pitchers ranked 7th among MLB teams in barrels/PA, 8th in hard hit %, 14th in exit velo. From 2021 to 2023 they improved from 28th to 14th in HR rate. 

Thanks for the explanation. I for one am also someone who is confused by the attitude that batters striking out is no big deal, while pitchers getting strikeouts is essential.

Just so you know it is currently raining which is supposed to change to ice then 7"± of snow on Christmas and the following day.