How Might a Royce Lewis Contract Extension Make Sense for Both Sides?

[Nick Nelson]

Is this offseason the last chance to lock up the natural-born leader and potential superstar, while the team still has a little bit of leverage due to lingering injury concerns and service-time realities?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

The nature of Major League Baseball's service-time system (and the way it delays significant guaranteed paydays) creates interesting leverage dynamics when it comes to negotiating long-term contracts with young players.

These dynamics lead to things like Jackson Chourio signing an eight-year, $82-million deal with the Brewers. One might ask, on one hand, why a team would commit that much money to a 19-year-old who has yet to play in the majors. On the other hand, though, why would a budding superstar sell out multiple future free-agent years at a discounted rate, potentially costing himself tens of millions of dollars?

It's that dual uncertainty that makes possible a mutually desirable agreement. Chourio, the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, would probably have been in line for an eventual megadeal, but not for many years. First, he would need to reach the majors, put in three full seasons of service at the minimum salary, and work his way through the arbitration process. 

Much can happen between now and that theoretical free-agent windfall. By signing his deal, Chourio mitigates the risk of something unforeseen and secures life-changing guaranteed money. In exchange, Milwaukee buys out up to four extra seasons at a significant bargain.

The Atlanta Braves executed a similar blueprint with Michael Harris II during his rookie season in 2022, locking the young outfielder up through age 30 with an eight-year deal. This was different from the Chourio situation, in that Harris had already reached the majors and experienced some success (he was on his way to winning Rookie of the Year), but the premise was the same.

Before this season, inspired by Atlanta's extension with Harris, I pondered what it might look like for the Twins to explore a long-term contract with Royce Lewis. He's older and further into his career than Harris or Chourio, but the motivations are the same: security and risk mitigation. Even with all the major-league service time Lewis accrued while on the injured list over the past two seasons, he is at least a year away from being eligible for arbitration, and is not in line to become a free agent until after the 2028 season.

In his brief time on the big-league field, he has shown legit superstar ability, portending big arbitration salaries and a robust market down the line--if all goes to plan. But Lewis is more familiar than anyone with the harsh unpredictability of this game. Injuries robbed him of nearly two full campaigns, then almost forestalled his star turn in the playoffs.

"It definitely made me not take anything for granted, knowing how quickly this game could be taken away from you," Lewis said of those injuries, during the playoff run, "whether it’s an ACL, hamstring, oblique, whatever it may be, or just strictly performance.”

Minnesota's leverage to negotiate a long-term deal has diminished since before the season, no doubt, but I think it still exists. Lewis has emerged as a central part of the Twins' core alongside Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Could the front office lock him into a long-term deal alongside those of Correa and Buxton, to gain cost certainty amid revenue uncertainty?

In February, I laid out the framework for a hypothetical seven-year, $34-million Lewis extension, which included two team options at $12 million and $15 million. The Twins would now need to sweeten some of the proposed numbers in order to entice Lewis and his agent, Scott Boras, following a breakthrough in 2023, but the same basic approach might make sense. Offer big raises for the minimum-salary years, guarantee substantial money during the arbitration years, and then recoup that up-front overpay by buying out years of free agency at an affordable price.

Now, there's a major stipulation at play here: with one year and 142 days of MLB service under his belt, Lewis is very likely to qualify for Super 2 status in 2025, assuming he spends all of next year in the majors. That means he'll reach arbitration early and hit those escalating paydays more quickly, taking away from some of Minnesota's leverage. 

Here's a framework for a deal that might make sense from both sides: a five-year, $40 million contract with team options for $20 million and $25 million tacked onto the back, for a total possible value of seven years and $85 million.

• 2024 (age 25): $3 million
• 2025 (age 26): $5 million
• 2026 (age 27): $7 million
• 2027 (age 28): $10 million
• 2028 (age 29): $15 million
• 2029 (age 30): $20 million team option 
• 2030 (age 31): $25 million team option

The draw here for Lewis (and Boras) is that, in addition to nearly quadrupling his projected salary in 2024, he gets $37 million guaranteed in four years of arbitration, which is more than he's likely to earn during that span unless things go really well from a health and production standpoint.

The Twins, meanwhile, get a pair of team options that can buy out a couple of free-agent years while Lewis is still in his prime. I'd consider increasing those to $25 million and $30 million, and throwing in some healthy buyouts, too. You might wonder, is it that valuable to get Lewis at those big salaries for those seasons--especially since the idea of him as a $30-million player remains purely theoretical at this point? The key is that you're getting those extra years without needing to commit to a long-term deal that involves paying heavily into his mid-30s. This might be the last chance for Minnesota to set up any such arrangement.    

It's basically a juiced up version of the extensions that Minnesota gave Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco at similar stages of their careers. The specific terms can be flexible, but the bottom line is that if Lewis is interested in the security of a long-term deal, I would be very amenable to that. For the record, here's how the team's books would map out long-term with the above deal added in:

What do you think? Would you be interested in exploring a contract extension of this nature with Lewis, or would you rather play it year-to-year?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

100% on board with this 

[Fatbat]

Great story. Its a win for everyone and I would be surprised if something like this isn’t done soon!

[Karbo]

i might bump yhose early numbers up slightly if that's what it takes

[Otaknam]

Lock him up…..to a contract extension! Lewis has shown that he will be the guy for the Twins, so if this can be worked out do it!

[SteveLV]

Lewis is the only current Twin I would consider for an early extension, and, even then, the injury issue looms.

He is certainly a quality person and is playing beautifully.  If he can stay on the field, he is quite the player and I have zero problem extending him.  Does Boras?

[Blyleven2011]

Lewis loves the game , the fans ...

Would he play for less money here in Minnesota  to stay and play the game he loves  , is money a motivator  for Lewis   , he comes from California which is a warmer climate , would he prefer a team on the west coast in warmer weather , better exposure to play for ( i don't know , but i think he wants to be a hall of fame type player , he seems to have that drive towards that goal in my opinion   ) ...

He has already shown  alot of adversity with his injuries to perform  at the highest level  , has a great personality  to be an embassador to the game  , a great clubhouse and on field leader  ...

Great leaders should get the big money  , 

Show him the money  ... 

It doesn't hurt to try ...

 

[terrydactyls]

Based on what I saw in September and October, Lewis might not only be a a great player, but he gave me the impression that he will be the heart and soul of the Twins and bring excitement back to Twins' baseball.  Get a deal done as fast as possible.

[rv78]

If Buck was worthy of an extension with his injury riddled past then taking a chance with Lewis and doing the same should happen sooner rather than later.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm not much for these type of extension but in Lewis's case the sooner & longer we lock him up the better. He's definitely a difference maker. A gem we need to invest in.

[sweetmusicviola16]

This is an extension that should be done. Every player is an injury risk so that shouldn't be a reason not to do this, that's what insurance policies are for. Royce has already proven he has what it takes. 2023 playoff season doesn't happen without him. 

As far as the deal proposed here, Should he play up to his capabilities he should do that well in his 26-29 arb years. Low risk for the team. But, it would appear as though we are trying to short change him greatly in the 2 FA years. Why even try? Show him the money. Increase both of those years to 35mil and I think you then have his ears. That's my opinion anyway.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This seems like a very reasonable take on the situation.  I might bump up the first year or two just slightly so he can have some "money in his pocket" sooner rather than later.  The psychological difference between $700K and $4M or $5M right now is a lot more than between $15M and $20M later.  Even with the injuries he's had in his career, he seems like a somewhat safer bet than Buxton -- but you never know.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

This seems like a very reasonable take on the situation.  I might bump up the first year or two just slightly so he can have some "money in his pocket" sooner rather than later. 

Royce Lewis got a $6.7M draft bonus. He's doing fine.

Even though the free agent market is not happening for the Twins I thought we would hear some news about a TV contract or extensions for young players (Lewis, Duran, Jeffers) by now. The only news in the last week was that they let Rob Antony go.

[Hrbeks Divot]

Absolutely on board with this. I’ve advocated for these types of deals for the Twins for a while. If we’re going to continue to operate from a payroll standpoint as the mid market team we are, we need to share some risk with our young prospects and hope we hit on them. We really haven’t seen this done with pitchers across MLB (Dobnak’s oddball contract excluded) but I would entertain that as well if we feel confident in a young arm. The risk might be higher for the team but the reward would be greater in the later years if salaries keep skyrocketing.

[Karbo]

It sure is fun playing with other peoples money!

[Matthew Trueblood]

58 minutes ago, rv78 said:

If Buck was worthy of an extension with his injury riddled past then taking a chance with Lewis and doing the same should happen sooner rather than later.

I think Buxton is a good comp, in one way. He, too, came up young, and even though injuries had haunted his early career, he had a chance to hit free agency quite young, so that had to be factored into the deal they agreed on.

IMO, Lewis and Boras would reject the deals Nick lays out here, but they're on the right track. Giving him the kind of megadeal he and Boras would warm to immediately is a non-starter, because there's too little certainty right now. But something with the loose structure Nick sketched for us could be a starting point. Then, you add one of the big-dollar, multi-year team options that have sometimes been tacked onto such deals lately, with the (also increasingly familiar) counterbalancing, smaller but still significant player option if the team doesn't pick up their side.

[tony&rodney]

Royce Lewis created a mound of local love with his return to baseball last season. He is now seen, by many, as the face of the Twins and his charisma has certainly made Twins fans excited about his next year and beyond.

Lewis has had two ACL surgeries and some trouble, of unknown degree, with his hamstrings as well. Because the Twins still control Royce for five years, it might be prudent to wait a few years. However, the deals proposed could work with inexpensive buyouts because they are not significantly more than expected arbitration figures. Royce has lifetime money already and may prefer to bet on himself. One can see the arguments from all sides.

I expect the Twins to wait another year before approaching Lewis with an interest in long term contracts.

[JD-TWINS]

I like the premise for sure. To get it done I probably bump it by $10M by giving him $2M more per year over the first 5 years…….Boras & Co. like present value of money as well & they are certainly aware of Lewis’ health issues to date……I think, as his management, they would approve.

He’s a real talent & getting him under control at known cost is very valuable for the Twins!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

These numbers seem really, really low. Falvey would be offering Lewis low arbitration salaries, then $15 million out in 2028 in what would be his first free agency season. In contrast, Falvey offered Joey Gallo $11 million last year. $15 million of 2028 dollars versus $11 million 2023 dollars. I think the best move for both sides is to just play it out Lewis’s free agency approaches. 

[Jocko87]

If they want to do it now is the time. One full healthy year and the price goes way up. Alex Bregman, also a Boras guy, is a good comp who signed for $100m at 3 ish years service time. He didn't have the injury history and had a solid major league track record but $100m doesn't go as far as it used too. Kep and Polo are Twins comps but they really don't apply to Lewis. He comps to the league.

I'd be all for it, but the numbers laid out probably don't get it done.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

These numbers seem really, really low. Falvey would be offering Lewis low arbitration salaries, then $15 million out in 2028 in what would be his first free agency season. In contrast, Falvey offered Joey Gallo $11 million last year. $15 million of 2028 dollars versus $11 million 2023 dollars. I think the best move for both sides is to just play it out Lewis’s free agency approaches. 

I agree that the proposed extension looks really low. You bring up Michael Harris - he got $70M. Chourio got $80M with no track record. Why would Lewis settle for $40M?

Lewis was the most valuable position player on the team on a per-inning basis last year. Then he was a stud in the postseason. He hasn't even hit his prime years yet. He's not signing a Jorge Polanco extension.

Further, if I'm Royce Lewis and I see how the Twins are pulling back on spending when they have a team that went .500 in the playoffs the previous year there is no way in hell I sign any contract that gives away my chance to play for a team that is actually trying to win.

 

[jmlease1]

I would absolutely explore it. Royce is the kind of player you want in your franchise: high-level talent on the field, magnetic personality and generator of excitement and positivity off the field. There's some risk because of his injury history, but that's what makes it doable for the player. While I'm sure the supremely confident Royce Lewis (amazing how he can be this way without sounding like an arrogant ass) would be comfortable betting on himself, I also think he might be interested in locking in generational wealth for himself and his family. he also seems like the kind of player that would rather know where he's going to be playing and not have any contract nonsense hanging over his head.

That said: I know I'm not entirely rational when it comes to Royce Lewis. I just love the dude.

[Nick Nelson]

40 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

These numbers seem really, really low. Falvey would be offering Lewis low arbitration salaries, then $15 million out in 2028 in what would be his first free agency season. In contrast, Falvey offered Joey Gallo $11 million last year. $15 million of 2028 dollars versus $11 million 2023 dollars. I think the best move for both sides is to just play it out Lewis’s free agency approaches. 

FWIW, he won't be a free agent until 2029. The 2028 season would be his last under arbitration. The proposed option seasons (20M and 25M) would be his first two FA years. Not that this necessarily negates your point.

[Nick Nelson]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I agree that the proposed extension looks really low. You bring up Michael Harris - he got $70M. Chourio got $80M with no track record. Why would Lewis settle for $40M?

Well, both their contracts were for 8 years, as opposed to the 5-year framework proposed for Lewis here, so I think that needs to be accounted in comparing total money. If you look at the specific annual salaries/progressions, the deal is actually quite similar to those. The idea here, as it was with Harris and Chourio, is to give Lewis a chance to still hit free agency around age 31, when he still has a real chance to score another big contract.

[saviking]

Ain't gonna happen. Lewis would be crazy to take that deal. Kepler and Polanco but not someone like Lewis who has maga star written all over him.

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Well, both their contracts were for 8 years, as opposed to the 5-year framework proposed for Lewis here, so I think that needs to be accounted in comparing total money. If you look at the specific annual salaries/progressions, the deal is actually quite similar to those. The idea here, as it was with Harris and Chourio, is to give Lewis a chance to still hit free agency around age 31, when he still has a real chance to score another big contract.

The 5 year deal is for 40 mil or 8 mil per season. Chourio is getting 10.25 mil per season and proven nothing, unlike Royce. So the more I look at it there is no way this gets done. Going to have to up the ante on the 5 years too. 7/130 might get it done. As someone stated, he isn't going to sign for Polanco money 5 or 6 years later.

[tony&rodney]

I sure hope that Royce Lewis can be 80% of the superstar that folks are projecting him to be in the next seven years. That would be sweet.

[SaintPaulRocks]

I like this idea, although I think the guaranteed should be more. Glyber Torres is expected for $15.3 in his 4th year of arbitration this year. 4 years from now will be much more expensive. Lewis is better overall, though Lewis's injury history decreases his current value. I'd go with $45 guaranteed, team options of 25 and 30 in years 6 and 7. Total possible of 7 years $100. 

[2wins87]

I don't think this is all that attractive from Lewis's side.  Yes it does guarantee some money in case of more injuries, but is $37 million really more than he can expect to make in 4 years of arbitration? If he is mostly healthy that seems like more or less the salary track he'll be on.  If the team options were guaranteed maybe it becomes a little more attractive, but I still don't really see the appeal from his side.

I have felt similarly about most of the extension talk around Lewis.  It's not even so much the specific monetary proposal, it's more the timeline he is on right now.  He is currently on track to become a free agent at age 30, giving him a shot to potentially get a 10-year mega deal.  Delaying this opportunity for 2 years until he's 32 could significantly reduce the potential value of his big FA deal.  I think they would have to guarantee significantly more money in 2029 and 2030 for his side to even consider it (like at least $30 million per year).  Even then, there is a good argument that the best way for him to maximize his money would still be to just go through arbitration normally in order to cash in big at age 30.

[chpettit19]

I love the idea of locking Lewis up into his FA years, but I think these numbers are too low to get it done. If he's the star everyone expects him to be his last arb year is going to be closer to 30 than 20 and this is suggesting paying him 15 because you gave him an extra 2 million in year 1. I don't think he goes for that. 

As a super 2 after next season he's already looking at getting that 5 mil in salary in 2025 anyways. From there he's looking at 10+ in 2026, 20 in 2027, and 30 in 2028. All of this is contingent upon him maintaining his small sample size production in full season sample sizes, but him doing that is the reason you'd want to lock him up in the first place. 

Over the 5 years before he hits free agency he's in line for $65 million+ if he's the star we want him to be. Soto is going to end up above 75 mil in arb payments if I'm doing my math right (8.5, 17, 23, 30ish). I don't know that Lewis would get all that, but 35 mil is a big gap. I'd think Lewis would need closer to 60 mil for his pre-FA years. But weirder things have happened. I'd definitely be talking to him and Boras about the idea if I were the Twins, though.