Examining One Former First-Round Pick’s Impending Rule 5 Decision

[Cody Christie]

Aaron Sabato is showcasing his powerful swing in the Arizona Fall League. Will it be enough for the Twins to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Aaron Sabato has been a polarizing player since the Twins drafted him with their first-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. Like all drafted players that year, the college slugger saw his season cut short due to the pandemic. The Twins front office had a late first-round pick and decided to select the University of North Carolina product. At the time, Minnesota called him a “steal,” and some compared him to Pete Alonso. He was a first baseman or DH, and that player type needs to compile big offensive numbers on the way to the big leagues. Unfortunately, struggles have followed Sabato during his professional career.

Sabato made his professional debut during the 2021 season, and the Twins had him spend time at Low- and High-A. In 107 games, he hit .202/.373/.410 (.783) with 18 doubles, 19 home runs, and 149 strikeouts. He was showcasing his powerful swing, but there was a lot of swing and miss for a player who spent most of the season facing younger competition. There was still hope for him to figure it out as he moved up the organizational ladder. 

In 2022, Sabato spent most of the season at High-A before finishing the year at Double-A. He was over a year younger than the average age of the competition in Wichita. In 103 games, he hit .215/.336/.438 (.774) with 17 doubles and 22 home runs while striking out 142 times. His statistical output was similar to his professional debut, with him making inconsistent contact but showing the ability to draw walks and occasionally hitting for power. The 2023 campaign would be critical to deciding Sabato’s future with the organization since the Twins needed to decide whether or not to add him to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. 

The Twins sent Sabato back to Double-A for the 2023 season, but injuries limited him to 77 games. He hit .221/.329/.430 (.759) with 19 doubles and 12 home runs with 103 strikeouts in 272 at-bats. Sabato has the second most strikeouts in the Twins organization since debuting in 2021. The Twins decided to send Sabato to the Arizona Fall League since he missed time during the regular season. Would he do enough to warrant the team protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft?

The AFL can be a favorable hitting environment because many teams don’t send their best pitchers after completing a season’s worth of innings. Sabato is near the top of the AFL leaderboard in home runs (7 HR in 18 games), and he will represent the Twins in the league’s home run derby this weekend. However, he hasn’t made consistent contact (.215 BA), and he continues to strike out at a high rate (27 Ks in 65 AB).

"I think right now I'm pretty locked in," Sabato told MLB Pipeline. "The biggest thing has just been in the cages, just try to take my intent down so that I can control my body a little bit better. And then in the box, really, it's just how long can I stay on the ball while being as quick as possible in order to rotate. I feel like before that, I kind of would get a little big and my movements would get a little bit excited or jumpy. I'm not using the ground as much. And when we use the ground, we can stay on pitches for a longer amount of time. We can see the ball a lot longer. And so that's really been the biggest thing."

Despite his AFL performance, the Twins will likely leave Sabato unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft. A rebuilding organization might look at Sabato’s first-round pedigree and prodigious power and select him in the draft. He would need to be used as a right-handed platoon player, and that’s a role that doesn’t currently fit into Minnesota’s plans.  

Do you think Sabato will be protected from the Rule 5 Draft? What kind of big-league career can he sustain? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

View full article

[gman]

I think if the Twins wanted a player with similar profile for the major league club, they could find them in free agency for not too much money. I would not allocate a 40 man roster spot for him.

[Jocko87]

At one point in my life I could have been compared to Pete Alonso as well.  It wasn't on the baseball field.

I do think they would have a spot for a RH platoon player. If he was hitting as projected when they drafted him he could easily fit in a platoon with AK.  Unfortunately he's to far down the depth chart and doesn't have a diverse enough skillet to fit in anytime soon.  One tool players need that tool to be elite an he isn't there.

I'd leave him unprotected and if picked try to work out one of those trade instead of return the player trade things.  Maybe with the AFL performance they can work out a trade prior to the draft. 

[Fatbat]

He is just too far away from being a MLB regular role player. Hopefully someday he figures out the swing and miss.  I doubt a rebuilding club would want to clog up their roster with him. 

[TopGunn#22]

Not a chance.  He hasn't exhibited anything I'd be interested in keeping.  We have PLENTY of better prospects to develop.  If I could throw him in as part of a multi player trade to get it done I'd do it in a heartbeat.  

[sun]

He should not.be protected. He's not ready yet for another team to put on their 26 man roster. Close but no cigar.

[Parfigliano]

Pete Alonzo has already hit 100+ MLB HR's.  He is no Alonzo.

[Doctor Gast]

Sabato is a product of the FO fetish of these types that were a waste of a draft pick.

[tony&rodney]

Locked in with a .215 BA and whiffing way too often.

1. Good luck to Sabato.

2. Everyone makes mistakes and drafting Sabato  was a mistake.

3. No, Sabato does not get put on the 40 person roster.

[Althebum82]

I know that it is important to have maybe about four to six strong sluggers on the roster who are going to strike out more than their fair share as part of their "complete package".  But, I personally am still choking on the Joey Gallo experiment and have no stomach to further invest in a player that is so one dimensional (at least Gallo played reliable defense at multiple positions).

Time to move on.  Someone else may give Sabato a shot and he may wind up with a good one season "Daniel Palka" type of MLB career and spend the rest of his days entertaining MiLB crowds (or crowds in other countries where he gets paid more).  It is hard to let go of #1 picks, but the time has come.  

[Linus]

Good god no. It’s not even a question and no he is not going to be taken. Horrible draft pick and really poor theoretical choice. His best possible outcome was always going to be a poor defender who was going to hit some homers but not much else. Guys like that are available all the time. Absolutely don’t have to waste a first round pick for that profile. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m sure that the AFL assignment this fall was his final chance to punch the 40-man roster ticket.  At a .215 BA in an offensive environment, he hasn’t done that.  I wish him well and think he will be selected by a rebuilding team to put a few balls in the seats and strike out a lot.  We, as Twins fans, need to relax next spring or the following spring when he is leading the league in HR’s for a month or so.  

[High heat]

Sabato plays a poor defense at only 1B and strikes out like Joey Gallo.  Sure he hits an occasional HR and takes some walks.  That is not functional on any major league roster. 
 

If you strike out at 40% at the AA level you have no hope in the majors.  He won’t get selected in the rule 5 and he should get a shot at AAA St. Paul next yr to replace Chris Williams who is a minor league free agent and will likely sign elsewhere

[DocBauer]

Sorry, no way I protect him on the 40 man. And unable to hit at AA, I can't see anyone taking a shot on him at this point. 

2020 was a very odd season for everyone, including the draft. Selecting late in the 1st round that year, little to nothing to use as a gauge in making selections except what you thought you knew the year before, I can't fault the Twins for a mammoth power plant who seemed to have plate discipline/OB ability and seemingly actual HIT potential. 

But it just wasn't a good choice. No blame. Just a bad pick in a strange draft. 

[rv78]

A bad pick decision doesn't need to be compounded by giving him a 40 man roster spot decision. If the FO learned anything this year.... Guys that strikeout like Joey Gallo are a waste of a roster spot.

[nicksaviking]

Shouldn't be added, and I doubt he's taken in the draft. I don't think even a rebuilding team would roster a 1B only player who strikes out 32% of the time.

He's hitting HR in the AFL, but that's it. Overall he's not hitting, he's not getting on base at an above average rate and he's actually striking out more than his career norms. Honestly, I'm concerned that he'll take a spot away from somebody else on the Saints next year simply because of his draft capital. I'd rather see Severino, Camargo, Isola, Williams and other players with better offensive potential get those reps.

[Trov]

I do not expect the Twins to put him on 40 man.  I also would only expect a few teams willing to bring him in on rule 5.  They would have to be a team that his no where close to competing and really needs a DH or first base guy.  Position players are less likely to be taken in rule 5, and he really is not that great to make sure you keep him. 

[old nurse]

50 K bet to see if you can fix a problem with strikeouts well enough by the end of spring training to keep him.  Reward is what? 30-40 HR potential. One team will take that bet for 50 k. 

[chpettit19]

57 minutes ago, old nurse said:

50 K bet to see if you can fix a problem with strikeouts well enough by the end of spring training to keep him.  Reward is what? 30-40 HR potential. One team will take that bet for 50 k. 

The money isn't the bet, the 40-man spot is the bet other teams would have to be willing to make. I don't know what all the bottom feeder teams 40-man's look like, but taking a guy like Sabato and locking up a 40-man spot with him is the much bigger bet than the 50k. There's only about 15 guys who get picked in the rule 5 most years. And most guys are pitchers teams want to try as relievers to start the year.

I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes Sabato. He had a 100 wRC+ in AA this year as a 24 year old. That was good for 11th best on that team. For reference, the only 1B taken in last year's rule 5 draft was Ryan Noda (only 1 other position player taken). He had a 120 wRC+ in AAA the previous season. Sabato had a .759 OPS in AA while Noda had an .870 OPS in AAA. Sabato is not a likely target in the rule 5.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The money isn't the bet, the 40-man spot is the bet other teams would have to be willing to make. I don't know what all the bottom feeder teams 40-man's look like, but taking a guy like Sabato and locking up a 40-man spot with him is the much bigger bet than the 50k. There's only about 15 guys who get picked in the rule 5 most years. And most guys are pitchers teams want to try as relievers to start the year.

I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes Sabato. He had a 100 wRC+ in AA this year as a 24 year old. That was good for 11th best on that team. For reference, the only 1B taken in last year's rule 5 draft was Ryan Noda (only 1 other position player taken). He had a 120 wRC+ in AAA the previous season. Sabato had a .759 OPS in AA while Noda had an .870 OPS in AAA. Sabato is not a likely target in the rule 5.

50K is all a team pays when they return a player. 

I lost track of all of the players the Twins picked up where it was a fixer upper \Sabato is a fixer upper. Decrease the strikeout rate should mean an increase in contact which in turn would lead to  an increase in OPS. 

[nicksaviking]

23 minutes ago, old nurse said:

50K is all a team pays when they return a player. 

I lost track of all of the players the Twins picked up where it was a fixer upper \Sabato is a fixer upper. Decrease the strikeout rate should mean an increase in contact which in turn would lead to  an increase in OPS. 

There are going to be dozens of better players to pick.

Heck, the Twins are going to have half a dozen better players made available. Camargo, Williams, Severino, Keirsay, Prato, Isola, Helman, Soularie. Most if not all of those guys won't be protected. And that's not even going through the pitchers who are much more easily hidden or guys like Salas who sometimes get taken because at least they can be useful on defense.

[Fezig]

Just like the Twins regular lineup, Sabato was a big swing and a miss. Call it a productive out and see if someone else wants him. Besides, if the teams needs a human wind machine Miguel Sano is still available.

[DJL44]

He is barely worth the minor league roster spot and development time.

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, old nurse said:

50K is all a team pays when they return a player. 

I lost track of all of the players the Twins picked up where it was a fixer upper \Sabato is a fixer upper. Decrease the strikeout rate should mean an increase in contact which in turn would lead to  an increase in OPS. 

I understand what the 50k is in reference to, but I'm saying that's not what the team would feel they were betting, they would feel giving that "fixer upper" a 40-man spot was the bigger bet. They don't care about the 50k, I agree. But they do care about locking up a 40-man spot with someone like Sabato.

Every team has a "fixer upper" in their system already. He's not unique. As I stated before, the Twins had 10 other guys on their AA team out perform him last year. They are all "fixer uppers" at this point as well since none of them are going to be on the Twins roster to start this year. David Banuelos is also rule 5 eligible. Also spent time at AA with Sabato this year. He struck out 38.2% of the time compared to Sabato's 32.3%. But he hit .270/.369/.526 compared to Sabato's .221/.329/.430. He had a 133 wRC+ to Sabato's 100. I don't even have to leave the Twins AA team to find a better "fixer upper" candidate. Sabato is not a likely rule 5 pick.

[Parfigliano]

19 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’m sure that the AFL assignment this fall was his final chance to punch the 40-man roster ticket.  At a .215 BA in an offensive environment, he hasn’t done that.  I wish him well and think he will be selected by a rebuilding team to put a few balls in the seats and strike out a lot.  We, as Twins fans, need to relax next spring or the following spring when he is leading the league in HR’s for a month or so.  

Prediction.  He doesnt lead MLB in HR's for a day.  Ever.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The money isn't the bet, the 40-man spot is the bet other teams would have to be willing to make. I don't know what all the bottom feeder teams 40-man's look like, but taking a guy like Sabato and locking up a 40-man spot with him is the much bigger bet than the 50k. There's only about 15 guys who get picked in the rule 5 most years. And most guys are pitchers teams want to try as relievers to start the year.

I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes Sabato. He had a 100 wRC+ in AA this year as a 24 year old. That was good for 11th best on that team. For reference, the only 1B taken in last year's rule 5 draft was Ryan Noda (only 1 other position player taken). He had a 120 wRC+ in AAA the previous season. Sabato had a .759 OPS in AA while Noda had an .870 OPS in AAA. Sabato is not a likely target in the rule 5.

It's not even a 40-man spot, it's a 26-man spot. You don't get to just put him on the 40-man and then stash him in AAA and hope that he figures it out: if you take him in the Rule 5 you're committing to him on the MLB roster, and as a slugger who struggles to make contact in the minors, he's got very very slim odds of suddenly making it work in MLB. He doesn't play a premium defensive position or add anything there, so he's got little chance of being taken. Position players that get grabbed are ones that can add something defensively even if their bat isn't ready: catchers, SS, CF. Not slow 1B with a contact problem.

I'm rooting for sabato, but he's probably not going to make it. Too little production, too many flaws, not enough other areas where he can impact a game. He's not getting on the 40-man, he's not getting picked in the Rule 5, and unless he starts finding something soon in the minors his pro career might be winding down too. Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

It's arguable that the Twins should have sent someone else to the AFL instead of Sabato.

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's arguable that the Twins should have sent someone else to the AFL instead of Sabato.

I don't mind them sending him to see if he can find something down there, especially since he missed a big chunk of time with injuries. He's got very good strike zone recognition, but he doesn't make enough contact. (Comparing him to wallner is a little instructive: Wallner's minor league BA: .274. Sabato? .212. Similar issues when you comp him to Rooker.) Maybe he's just one of those guys who couldn't handle the change to wooden bats? That happens, but I'm guessing it's harder to spot who can handle the switch and who can't...

[Jeff K]

22 hours ago, sun said:

He should not.be protected. He's not ready yet for another team to put on their 26 man roster. Close but no cigar.

I don't think it's even a close or difficult call.

[farmerguychris]

I wouldn't give him a roster spot - but maybe now is the last chance to trade him while he's hot?