Examining One Former First-Round Pick’s Impending Rule 5 Decision

I think if the Twins wanted a player with similar profile for the major league club, they could find them in free agency for not too much money. I would not allocate a 40 man roster spot for him.

He is just too far away from being a MLB regular role player. Hopefully someday he figures out the swing and miss.  I doubt a rebuilding club would want to clog up their roster with him. 

Not a chance.  He hasn't exhibited anything I'd be interested in keeping.  We have PLENTY of better prospects to develop.  If I could throw him in as part of a multi player trade to get it done I'd do it in a heartbeat.  

He should not.be protected. He's not ready yet for another team to put on their 26 man roster. Close but no cigar.

Sabato is a product of the FO fetish of these types that were a waste of a draft pick.

Locked in with a .215 BA and whiffing way too often.

1. Good luck to Sabato.

2. Everyone makes mistakes and drafting Sabato  was a mistake.

3. No, Sabato does not get put on the 40 person roster.

I know that it is important to have maybe about four to six strong sluggers on the roster who are going to strike out more than their fair share as part of their "complete package".  But, I personally am still choking on the Joey Gallo experiment and have no stomach to further invest in a player that is so one dimensional (at least Gallo played reliable defense at multiple positions).

Time to move on.  Someone else may give Sabato a shot and he may wind up with a good one season "Daniel Palka" type of MLB career and spend the rest of his days entertaining MiLB crowds (or crowds in other countries where he gets paid more).  It is hard to let go of #1 picks, but the time has come.  

I think some rebuilding team will pick him up via rule 5.  It will force that team to keep him in the majors and he will either sink or swim.  Hopefully, that team will not want to keep him in the majors and will instead offer us something in return.

Good god no. It’s not even a question and no he is not going to be taken. Horrible draft pick and really poor theoretical choice. His best possible outcome was always going to be a poor defender who was going to hit some homers but not much else. Guys like that are available all the time. Absolutely don’t have to waste a first round pick for that profile. 

Sabato plays a poor defense at only 1B and strikes out like Joey Gallo.  Sure he hits an occasional HR and takes some walks.  That is not functional on any major league roster. 
 

If you strike out at 40% at the AA level you have no hope in the majors.  He won’t get selected in the rule 5 and he should get a shot at AAA St. Paul next yr to replace Chris Williams who is a minor league free agent and will likely sign elsewhere

Sorry, no way I protect him on the 40 man. And unable to hit at AA, I can't see anyone taking a shot on him at this point. 

2020 was a very odd season for everyone, including the draft. Selecting late in the 1st round that year, little to nothing to use as a gauge in making selections except what you thought you knew the year before, I can't fault the Twins for a mammoth power plant who seemed to have plate discipline/OB ability and seemingly actual HIT potential. 

But it just wasn't a good choice. No blame. Just a bad pick in a strange draft. 

A bad pick decision doesn't need to be compounded by giving him a 40 man roster spot decision. If the FO learned anything this year.... Guys that strikeout like Joey Gallo are a waste of a roster spot.

I do not expect the Twins to put him on 40 man.  I also would only expect a few teams willing to bring him in on rule 5.  They would have to be a team that his no where close to competing and really needs a DH or first base guy.  Position players are less likely to be taken in rule 5, and he really is not that great to make sure you keep him. 

50 K bet to see if you can fix a problem with strikeouts well enough by the end of spring training to keep him.  Reward is what? 30-40 HR potential. One team will take that bet for 50 k. 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The money isn't the bet, the 40-man spot is the bet other teams would have to be willing to make. I don't know what all the bottom feeder teams 40-man's look like, but taking a guy like Sabato and locking up a 40-man spot with him is the much bigger bet than the 50k. There's only about 15 guys who get picked in the rule 5 most years. And most guys are pitchers teams want to try as relievers to start the year.

I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes Sabato. He had a 100 wRC+ in AA this year as a 24 year old. That was good for 11th best on that team. For reference, the only 1B taken in last year's rule 5 draft was Ryan Noda (only 1 other position player taken). He had a 120 wRC+ in AAA the previous season. Sabato had a .759 OPS in AA while Noda had an .870 OPS in AAA. Sabato is not a likely target in the rule 5.

50K is all a team pays when they return a player. 

I lost track of all of the players the Twins picked up where it was a fixer upper \Sabato is a fixer upper. Decrease the strikeout rate should mean an increase in contact which in turn would lead to  an increase in OPS. 

Just like the Twins regular lineup, Sabato was a big swing and a miss. Call it a productive out and see if someone else wants him. Besides, if the teams needs a human wind machine Miguel Sano is still available.

He is barely worth the minor league roster spot and development time.

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The money isn't the bet, the 40-man spot is the bet other teams would have to be willing to make. I don't know what all the bottom feeder teams 40-man's look like, but taking a guy like Sabato and locking up a 40-man spot with him is the much bigger bet than the 50k. There's only about 15 guys who get picked in the rule 5 most years. And most guys are pitchers teams want to try as relievers to start the year.

I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes Sabato. He had a 100 wRC+ in AA this year as a 24 year old. That was good for 11th best on that team. For reference, the only 1B taken in last year's rule 5 draft was Ryan Noda (only 1 other position player taken). He had a 120 wRC+ in AAA the previous season. Sabato had a .759 OPS in AA while Noda had an .870 OPS in AAA. Sabato is not a likely target in the rule 5.

It's not even a 40-man spot, it's a 26-man spot. You don't get to just put him on the 40-man and then stash him in AAA and hope that he figures it out: if you take him in the Rule 5 you're committing to him on the MLB roster, and as a slugger who struggles to make contact in the minors, he's got very very slim odds of suddenly making it work in MLB. He doesn't play a premium defensive position or add anything there, so he's got little chance of being taken. Position players that get grabbed are ones that can add something defensively even if their bat isn't ready: catchers, SS, CF. Not slow 1B with a contact problem.

I'm rooting for sabato, but he's probably not going to make it. Too little production, too many flaws, not enough other areas where he can impact a game. He's not getting on the 40-man, he's not getting picked in the Rule 5, and unless he starts finding something soon in the minors his pro career might be winding down too. Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

It's arguable that the Twins should have sent someone else to the AFL instead of Sabato.

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's arguable that the Twins should have sent someone else to the AFL instead of Sabato.

I don't mind them sending him to see if he can find something down there, especially since he missed a big chunk of time with injuries. He's got very good strike zone recognition, but he doesn't make enough contact. (Comparing him to wallner is a little instructive: Wallner's minor league BA: .274. Sabato? .212. Similar issues when you comp him to Rooker.) Maybe he's just one of those guys who couldn't handle the change to wooden bats? That happens, but I'm guessing it's harder to spot who can handle the switch and who can't...

22 hours ago, sun said:

He should not.be protected. He's not ready yet for another team to put on their 26 man roster. Close but no cigar.

I don't think it's even a close or difficult call.

I wouldn't give him a roster spot - but maybe now is the last chance to trade him while he's hot?