Examining One Former First-Round Pick’s Impending Rule 5 Decision

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I wouldn't give him a roster spot - but maybe now is the last chance to trade him while he's hot?

I don't imagine anyone would want to add him to their 40-man though.

He was the 27th overall pick, it's OK to whiff on a guy drafting down there, it's not like they bungled a Nick Gordon or Tyler Jay top 10 pick. Just wish him well, release him, and hope to do better in next year's draft.

And really, the rest of that draft looks solid, who cares if your first pick wasn't the best one? Making decisions based on draft equity would be foolish.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Prediction.  He doesnt lead MLB in HR's for a day.  Ever.

You are likely correct, but that won't stop fans from fretting that he is "the next David Ortiz!"

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not even a 40-man spot, it's a 26-man spot. You don't get to just put him on the 40-man and then stash him in AAA and hope that he figures it out: if you take him in the Rule 5 you're committing to him on the MLB roster, and as a slugger who struggles to make contact in the minors, he's got very very slim odds of suddenly making it work in MLB. He doesn't play a premium defensive position or add anything there, so he's got little chance of being taken. Position players that get grabbed are ones that can add something defensively even if their bat isn't ready: catchers, SS, CF. Not slow 1B with a contact problem.

I'm rooting for sabato, but he's probably not going to make it. Too little production, too many flaws, not enough other areas where he can impact a game. He's not getting on the 40-man, he's not getting picked in the Rule 5, and unless he starts finding something soon in the minors his pro career might be winding down too. Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

Yeah, I was just countering the 50k idea. It would only cost the other team 50k to draft him and then give him back before the season started without ever having to use that 26-man spot on him. But they aren't going to carry Sabato during the offseason on their 40-man roster while they're trying to make other moves. They aren't going to DFA someone else, or not sign someone, in order to keep someone like Sabato on the 40-man all offseason. That 40-man spot over the winter is the bigger bet than the 50k.

I very much hope Sabato figures it out. But I very much hope every prospect in every org makes it. Why wouldn't I? We all wish we could have the chance to make our baseball dreams come true, so I hope all those kids make their dreams come true. But Sabato is nowhere near figuring it out, and I don't see why a team would take him in the Rule 5. We tend to freak out a lot over the Rule 5, and who the Twins should protect, and how they're going to lose half a dozen guys every year. The truth is the Rule 5 just isn't that big of a deal. A few guys here and there end up being nice picks, but in the long run you really just don't lose much talent that way. And no team is losing half a dozen guys in a season like some posters fear will happen to the Twins each year. 

[Mike Sixel]

This isn't a hard choice at all. If someone wants to keep him on their 26 man roster all year, more power to them. Or, I believe, they can take him and then work out a deal with MN to put them on their 40 man......which, sure, why not? 

[Doctor Wu]

I agree. Too many other hitters in the system like Sabato. He doesn't do anything special, other than hit for power, that would make him worthy of a roster spot at this point. Leave him unprotected. 

[mikelink45]

I join the consensus - do not protect him.  Hopefully the FO gets over their big swing romance and moves on from him and continues to find the Lee, Walker, and Lewis types. 

[arby58]

They just added a power hitting bat who strikes out a lot in Yunior Severino. Yunior is younger and has put up far better numbers - and already reached Triple A this year. Severino yes, Sabato no.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I join the consensus - do not protect him.  Hopefully the FO gets over their big swing romance and moves on from him and continues to find the Lee, Walker, and Lewis types. 

Yeah, seems like they have. He was drafted in 2020, which of course was on the heels of the Bomba Squad success. Rosario and Soularie weren't exactly high contact guys either.

Since then, the 2021 draft was pitchers, catchers and infielders (CES later moved to the OF) in their top ten picks. 2022 was exclusively pitchers and contact oriented infielders in the top ten. Last year seemed to be high OBP hitters and of course more pitchers.

Since 2020, really only CES and Winkour were guys with swing and miss concerns and they were 3rd and 4th round picks. And despite the strikeouts, those two have shown quite a bit of promise.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, seems like they have. He was drafted in 2020, which of course was on the heels of the Bomba Squad success. Rosario and Soularie weren't exactly high contact guys either.

Since then, the 2021 draft was pitchers, catchers and infielders (CES later moved to the OF) in their top ten picks. 2022 was exclusively pitchers and contact oriented infielders in the top ten. Last year seemed to be high OBP hitters and of course more pitchers.

Since 2020, really only CES and Winkour were guys with swing and miss concerns and they were 3rd and 4th round picks. And despite the strikeouts, those two have shown quite a bit of promise.

Good response - I agree.  I hope we have put this behind us forever.

 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Good response - I agree.  I hope we have put this behind us forever.

 

For now at least. Baseball trends all over the place. There may come a day where a Bomba Squad II rules the game. 

But even with their failures, it's good to see the front office continually adjust instead of pounding away with a single philosophy they are familiar with.

[DJL44]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:12 AM, mikelink45 said:

I join the consensus - do not protect him.  Hopefully the FO gets over their big swing romance and moves on from him and continues to find the Lee, Walker, and Lewis types. 

Lee, Walker and Lewis have plenty of power.