Why We Should Expect the Twins to Move Slowly This Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

Uncertainties around health and TV revenue, along with this general front office's M.O., should temper expectations around any bold early action from the Twins this winter. 

Image courtesy of John Bonnes, Twins Daily

What do the Carlos Correa signing(s), the Josh Donaldson signing, Pablo Lopez trade, and the Kenta Maeda trade all have in common? (I mean, aside from being some of the biggest moves the Twins have swung under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine?)

They all happened fairly late in the offseason. The Donaldson and Lopez acquisitions occurred in late January. The Maeda trade was completed in February. Correa signed for the first time when spring training was already basically underway. None of these moves were made in November or December, and it's tough to think of many high-profile examples under this front office that were.

That's just how they operate, pretty much at all times. They're going to be patient and let things play out. It's a guiding philosophy that has generally served them well. This offseason I would expect them to lean especially hard into their penchant for patience, for a couple of key reasons:

Health uncertainty with key players

Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano ended up being two of the front office's more impactful additions this year. It is no coincidence that both were acquired late in the last offseason.

The Twins traded for Taylor in late January, as it became apparent to them that starting-caliber depth behind Byron Buxton was more of a necessity than a luxury. They signed Solano deep into February, with camp already getting underway, to add a veteran piece behind a gradually recovering Alex Kirilloff at first base.

Both Buxton and Kirilloff are once again health question marks this offseason, and in both cases we'll likely have more clarity on where they stand in a couple of months. How they rebound physically from their latest surgeries will influence the team's course of action at first base and in center field, which stand out as the biggest (only?) needs from a position-player perspective.

Revenue uncertainty with no TV deal

The Twins' lucrative broadcast deal with Bally Sports North has ended, leaving one of the team's biggest sources of revenue in total flux. The organization needs to figure out a plan for next year, and it's unclear how quickly that might take shape. No matter what the parameters of the new arrangement, it seems very unlikely the Twins will come close to matching the $55 million in telecast rights from their previous deal. 

As of this moment, it's a major wild card for planning. The Twins, like many teams, tend to set their payroll as a fractional proportion of team revenue, and right now we just don't know what that's going to look like in 2024.

Taking all of this into account alongside the front office's general proclivities, I would not expect to see the Twins make any major moves until January or February. However, outside circumstances could obviously affect this timeline. With trades figuring to be a main channel of addition this offseason, the Twins might need to step up and pull the trigger on someone they like, lest he be dealt elsewhere.

So, I'm not saying you should tune out until the new year. But I am saying that fans shouldn't be surprised by minimal rumors and movement from the Twins leading up to, and during, the Winter Meetings next month.

View full article

[Karbo]

Actually, that TV revenue is cut in half so its closer to 25 mil that is lost. They will get some of that back in a new TV contract. They can get some back in increased advertising, and staying competitive should increase attendance to help recoup more of that,

[Cory Engelhardt]

Cue December 12th, when the Twins haven't made any noteworthy deals, and many commenters (both here and on social media) complaining how the offseason is a wash and they NEVER do anything to improve the team. Falvine should absolutely be fired for being Pohlad pocket protectors at that point am I right? :)

[saviking]

Since I'm in the camp of bringing up our young, inexpensive players in our pipeline I don't fear the loss in TV revenue 🙃

[Trov]

56 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Actually, that TV revenue is cut in half so its closer to 25 mil that is lost. They will get some of that back in a new TV contract. They can get some back in increased advertising, and staying competitive should increase attendance to help recoup more of that,

It is not half exactly, it is 48%, then they get 3.3% of all broadcast deals.  So not only will we lose out on our own, but if other deals that Bally has gets cut we lose out on that.  According to DodgerBlue, teams got around 110 mil in 2022, not sure in 2023.  However, if many teams lose some of their current deals, that will affect the Twins too.  So yes, we share 48% of braodcast deal so it hits us about 25 mil off the top, but we get 3.3% of what we give up, but also from all other teams.  If even a 10% loss across the board, that is about 7 mil off the top from Twins deal, and 11 mil from sharing, for a lost of about 18 mil.  Can that be made up from other sources, possibly.  If the drop is 20% that is now 36 mil we lose out next year. It is not a small issue because many teams are looking at broadcast money not just Twins. 

[Trov]

The FO is generally slow to do moves in off-season.  So this should be no surprise. 

[tony&rodney]

Hard to know how minor league free agency works, but the Twins may need to be proactive about signing Jair Camargo. Last season the Twins only used two catchers and that is the hope for 2024 too. How often do teams make it through the entire year with two catchers?

You referenced that it may be necessary to pull a trade sooner than later and this is likely if the Twins have their thoughts toward a few specific players. Sometimes  it is a good idea to outbid the market early to fill a need. 

The Twins do seem like they will be slow to act on any trades that may be possible if the player coming in costs a small pile. Free agent additions are also likely to happen later, especially as we see players maneuver through their combinations of years or higher annual salary wishes.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Trov said:

So not only will we lose out on our own, but if other deals that Bally has gets cut we lose out on that. 

But the league also got $100M extra from ESPN for the expanded playoffs, $85M for AppleTV+ and $30M from Peacock. That's $215M in yearly revenue that didn't exist a couple years ago.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, I wonder how the uncertainty regarding the tv deal affected the decision by Dick Bremer and/or the Twins for the beloved 40 year veteran announcer, to stop announcing the Twins' tv games. Was it merely coincidentally that "his decision" to retire, came at the same time as the tv contract also "retired"? I realize most of us chose to retire at some point in our 60's or 70's. I would be interested in your thoughts.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

But the league also got $100M extra from ESPN for the expanded playoffs, $85M for AppleTV+ and $30M from Peacock. That's $215M in yearly revenue that didn't exist a couple years ago.

$215 million divided by 30 is a little over $7 million, assuming that is the Twins' share.  Hardly offsets losing $55 million, but it's a start. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Agree with the hypothesis - for a vast majority of the Twins’ upcoming personnel decisions not dictated by date specific league rules.

However, the single biggest decision - how we replace Gray and, for that matter, Maeda - is something we might do a bit more proactively this off-season. Who knows, we might resign one, both or go an entirely different route. But it would be better to figure that out a bit earlier while more options are on the table.  Last year’s kick save (trading Arraez for Lopez after pretty much figuring out the risks we were running with Mahle and Maeda) worked great, but was probably not the original strategy.  Perhaps this year the key rotation decisions get addressed earlier.

[Dman]

I think they make late moves because they generally get better value that way.  Free agents that other teams passed on lose value and or negotiating power as spring training approaches.  Trades can swing various directions depending on if a team really needs a guy or if they really want to dump a player.  Just like at the trade deadline teams often seem to wait until the last minute to establish the best value for a player and or decide to overpay for a player.

That being said if the Twins plan on Trading one or two of Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, Larnach it feels like they should do it sooner rather than later or they might not find a team that needs\wants those players.  My hope would be that they can elicit some type of bidding war for players they are willing to move on from.

It is hard to say what value gets placed on certain players, but need often trumps everything.  I don't think they can or will keep everyone so expect at least one trade if not more..

[Johnny Ringo]

I don't share the collective confidence here that we understand the revenue effects for 2024. On the their latest free podcast (which has basically become an ad for the Patreon version) Gleeman urges an unchanged payroll where Bonnes advocates for a "cost-of-living " adjusted spend of $170 million. (Do these guys really need a COLA?) I had to laugh at those figures. They don't intimate that the Twins have told them that even the lower figure is realistic. I guess it is hard to sell 2 or 3 Patreons a week with "well, it depends on the budget."   

I do have confidence though that the FO will spend and deal within the parameters that they are given. It's taken awhile for me to get there on them but these guys aren't afraid to be audacious. Like their hitters, they have had a fair amount of swing and miss (Mahle, Buxton) but they go up there hacking and sometimes hit homers (Gray, Ryan).   

The implosion of the RSN model may create disruption in the league and create some FA bargains. As the team is in pretty good, but certainly not perfect shape "as is", I would guess that Falvey will be patient to see how that plays out.  

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Hardly offsets losing $55 million, but it's a start. 

The Twins will NOT be broadcasting games for free next season. They won't be losing $55M. Pro sports is some of the most desired content on linear television. Apple TV just paid $85M to broadcast 2 games a week.

[TopGunn#22]

This is no shock to us Twins fans.  The Twins FO historically (no matter who has been in charge) moves at a snail's pace.  We here on TD have called it "dumpster diving."  It's always been frustrating because it makes the FO appear to have no plan or strategy going into the off season.  Certain players appear to be a good fit to fill a need at a decent price (talking the "mid tier" free agents here) and one by one they get snapped up and we're left "dumpster diving" for the JA Happ's and Dylan Bundy's of the world.

There are two SP that I would like the Twins to make a bid for this off season:  Eduardo Rodriguez (finally a LH starter??) and Trevor Bauer.  They are both classic "mid tier."  Not Blake Snell.  Not Aaron Nola.  Those guys will bust a budget for sure.  But I have a feeling the Twins will be out to lunch while these two potential rotation pieces are snapped up.

I get the TV deal uncertainty but there's ALWAYS an excuse to go dumpster diving for the Twins.  They broke that mold by trading for Lopez and Gray and finally had a good rotation.  The Twins are on the verge of some 2004-2009 division dominance with an outstanding core of young players making an impact.  But to remain competitive, they need to pitch, and that means one or two rotation acquisitions this off season.  Waiting won't yield "quality."  

[jmlease1]

I think monitoring the health status of Kirilloff and Buxton (and Miranda) as they recover and rehab from surgery is going to be a major factor in the decision-making in both trades and free agency, and frankly should be. Though regardless of how well Buxton looks to be doing and maybe they have solved his knee inflammation issue with this cleanup procedure, they will most certainly need to make a fairly significant decision to ensure they have CF well backed up. Do they have internal options? yes, in that Castro has shown he can field the position increasingly well and Austin Martin is also capable. But Martin is unproven at the plate and has an injury history of his own, so there is risk in managing this internally. That said, letting the rookies play worked out pretty well for the Twins with Julien, Lewis, and Wallner.

The trade issue is a very interesting one, because unless they decide to move either Polanco or Farmer, there's really only one roster spot on the MLB club and that one would have to go to an OF. It's simply ridiculous to push Wallner or Julien or Lewis back down to AAA, so unless they move one of those other guys (or Kepler, but I've given up on Kepler going anywhere, and after the second half of the season he doesn't look like a guy you'd want to move on from...and they're much less overstocked on LH OFs than they used to be, for now) there simply isn't a lot of room on the position side, unless they become convinced that one of their recovery guys isn't going to be ready to go at the start of the year.

If there's an early move, I would expect it to be on the pitching end of things, but we'll have to see. I suspect it may take a little while to see where the market shakes out on Gray and Maeda. I suspect Pagan moves along as being a little too spendy for the bullpen. Will they spend some money there? It seems out of character (and TBH I don't disagree with their general policy of not handing out 3-4 year deals to fungible relievers at $5-10M per like some teams do) but at the same time there are some holes and not a ton of obvious internal candidates.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The other factor here is that the Twins aren't building a team from scratch.  With the exception of Gray/Maeda decisions, most of the decisions they need to make are on role players.  Assuming Kepler and Polanco are picked up, and Kiriloff and Buxton are healthy enough to start the season (big ifs, I know), they are basically set for next year.

No reason for big moves unless something falls into their lap again.

[ashbury]

So the team will bide its sweet time, unless circumstances dictate they "pull the trigger" to take advantage of opportunity.  Got it.

[Shaitan]

Let's note that Bally's issues don't only affect the Twins. There could be widespread affects on the market.

[DJL44]

The decision on Sonny Gray will come pretty quickly. If he returns then the rest of the shopping (bullpen, RH outfield bat) can take it's time.

[Original_JB]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The other factor here is that the Twins aren't building a team from scratch.  With the exception of Gray/Maeda decisions, most of the decisions they need to make are on role players.  Assuming Kepler and Polanco are picked up, and Kiriloff and Buxton are healthy enough to start the season (big ifs, I know), they are basically set for next year.

No reason for big moves unless something falls into their lap again.

There's no way the Twins are going to go into the season without a "starting level" back up plan for Buxton. He's had another season of injury, couldn't play the field, couldn't steal, wasn't very effective as a DH, and is now another year older. If they're going to let Kepler dictate where he plays, and Martin doesn't appear to be ready, even if Buck is healthy, they'll need someone to cover anywhere from 60 to 162 games in Center.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

$215 million divided by 30 is a little over $7 million, assuming that is the Twins' share.  Hardly offsets losing $55 million, but it's a start. 

Numbers divided by 30 shrink quickly. You also didn’t include league offices takes a cut of that.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

31 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

There's no way the Twins are going to go into the season without a "starting level" back up plan for Buxton. He's had another season of injury, couldn't play the field, couldn't steal, wasn't very effective as a DH, and is now another year older. If they're going to let Kepler dictate where he plays, and Martin doesn't appear to be ready, even if Buck is healthy, they'll need someone to cover anywhere from 60 to 162 games in Center.

I would tend to agree with that sentiment, but they are not going to go out and spend $15M on that position.  Unless the Twins 100% know Buck is not going to play CF next year, they are not going to get a "starting level" player.  MAT was basically perfect in that role, bringing him back makes a lot of sense.

I can see a path for a high end 1B.  Kiriloff is a decent OF and could ultimate move Wallner to RF when Kepler leaves.

[RpR]

They have little need to hurry for another fielder.

Lewis, Polanco, Kirilloff (maybe) with Jeffers and Vazquez catching is a good infield.

Wallner, Taylor (Buxton?) and Kepler is a very good outfield.

If they have problems at first bring up Williams who can both play first and catch.

Farmer, Castro and Solano make a good bench; another player to replace Stevenson's fielding speed would be nice but not a big thing.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

even if Buck is healthy, they'll need someone to cover anywhere from 60 to 162 games in Center.

True, but there's also little incentive to move quickly on that this offseason.

[Original_JB]

31 minutes ago, RpR said:

They have little need to hurry for another fielder.

Lewis, Polanco, Kirilloff (maybe) with Jeffers and Vazquez catching is a good infield.

Wallner, Taylor (Buxton?) and Kepler is a very good outfield.

If they have problems at first bring up Williams who can both play first and catch.

Farmer, Castro and Solano make a good bench; another player to replace Stevenson's fielding speed would be nice but not a big thing.

Yes, they are. But Taylor is a FA. In my mind, we have no starting Center Fielder. That's always been my hesitation about the Buxton signing --- not so much the money, but that he essentially takes up 2 roster spots because you need to have someone who you know can play most every day, and that will never be Buck, hence the need for another CF.

[Woof Bronzer]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins will NOT be broadcasting games for free next season. They won't be losing $55M. Pro sports is some of the most desired content on linear television. Apple TV just paid $85M to broadcast 2 games a week.

Agree.  Besides, this is all so confusing, because for years the Twins used their meager tv deal as an excuse for not being able to compete financially.  It's extraordinarily rich to now hear them suggest we can't compete financially without such a bountiful deal.  

[Original_JB]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

True, but there's also little incentive to move quickly on that this offseason.

Because why exactly? It's one of the most important fielding positions, and we don't have a reliable player to fill it. You don't think there is any urgency to have someone who will likely play more games than Buck figured out sooner rather than later? Or did I miss the memo where MAT promised to resign for the same price as last year and guarantees he'll also hit just as well?

[DocBauer]

So the Twins, generally speaking, spend 50-54% "ish" of total revenues for their payroll. This is based on previously mentioned topics of the same, as well as other comments that the FO/ownership is spending "more than they always feel comfortable with". Hence a proposed variation of 50-54%. With the Twins losing out on the $55M from Bally, that means a drop in payroll revenue of approximately $28M. Now, if they sign a new deal with WHOEVER at this point, and that deal is for...oh...$30M per year, that is approximately $15M to put towards payroll. That's a loss of $13M. That shouldn't be devastating to the Twins. A small bump here or there from network deals, a small increase in additional advertisement dollars, should all be options to help offset that amount and keep the Twins at least close to where they were this season, even if they don't increase for 2024. Heck, moving on from Farmer covers half that $13M by itself.

The Twins would not appear to be in a dangerous financial situation at this time.

That being said, to echo other comments, they aren't in a desperate situation anywhere on the roster. The only real hole is ONE quality SP to add. It could be Gray, or someone similar. It's possible they re-sign Maeda, or someone of similar quality. And that should be the floor, Maeda, similar, at a minimum. Since it is the #1 priority, I could see it done via trade or FA signing/re-sign before New Years Eve. I mean, you know what you need, you have a good idea what's available, why not get your #1 priority taken care of?

After that, I can easily see the FO sit back and wait until after the Jan 1st to address the rest. They have generally been rewarded for their patience when they do so. And I'm fine with that strategy, even if it's boring from a fan's perspective, LOL. But I have and will continue to advocate to move earlier on priority #1 before sitting back.

[Guest]

This post is completely off topic.  I am willing to accept warning points for this posting, but I feel like I can no longer keep quiet about this topic.

 So here goes: The new Chicken in a Biskit Ranch flavor tastes like bad fish. Sure, I'll finish the box, only because I am cheap, but I will not purchase again.

Oh, and to make matters worse: when I opened this article my wife walked by and said, "Who are those two good looking guys". 

Yeesh!!