Why We Should Expect the Twins to Move Slowly This Offseason

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

But the league also got $100M extra from ESPN for the expanded playoffs, $85M for AppleTV+ and $30M from Peacock. That's $215M in yearly revenue that didn't exist a couple years ago.

The record budget that was established last year took that extra revenue into account.  Plus, they got $30M from the final BAM payment last year.  2024 revenue will go down by the amount of the BAM payment and the reduction in local TV revenue.  Selective accounting won't change this reality.  We should be hoping the Pohlad's are willing to sacrifice profit while this gets figured out because the reduction in revenue is probable.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Because why exactly? It's one of the most important fielding positions, and we don't have a reliable player to fill it. You don't think there is any urgency to have someone who will likely play more games than Buck figured out sooner rather than later? Or did I miss the memo where MAT promised to resign for the same price as last year and guarantees he'll also hit just as well?

If they're not in on Bellinger then I expect the other players (Taylor, Kiermaier, Bader) to be available later. There won't be a run on mediocre CF until the premium guys sign.

[RpR]

Bellinger would be good to have at First Base, but not a replacement for Buxton or Taylor in Center Field.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Because why exactly? It's one of the most important fielding positions, and we don't have a reliable player to fill it. You don't think there is any urgency to have someone who will likely play more games than Buck figured out sooner rather than later? Or did I miss the memo where MAT promised to resign for the same price as last year and guarantees he'll also hit just as well?

CASTRO - done.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they're not in on Bellinger then I expect the other players (Taylor, Kiermaier, Bader) to be available later. There won't be a run on mediocre CF until the premium guys sign.

Nick Gordon - if he shows any signs of hitting capability in Spring Training & Willie Castro are both capable of playing CF as much as needed. Castro was learning the position in ‘23 & has good speed with a big arm. Gordon started over 60 times in CF in ‘22. Don’t see covering this internally…….with some upside potential either from Buxton or Martin we should be good w/o a major signing. Taylor is still a rational signing for RH platoon and injury depth.

[Jocko87]

12 hours ago, saviking said:

Since I'm in the camp of bringing up our young, inexpensive players in our pipeline I don't fear the loss in TV revenue 🙃

I agree it will be a slow start and that may force them to tip their hands on plans for some of the youngsters.  They won’t hesitate to bring in someone later but in the meantime they will have to do a few things.

[Brandon]

To help the Twins deal with their revenue problems from loss of TV revenue, Twins daily needs to sponsor a Twins season-ticket buying event.  Lets get the media and news stations and talk radio involved too and maybe make it an event with a Brewery or 3 or 5 and some former players and games and promotions and what not and see if we can help get an extra 200,000 - 400,000 tickets sold to help with their revenue as 2.4 million in attendance will bring in much more than 2,000,000 in attendance.  And if Twins daily can get that done sooner rather than later so the Twins can bank that money and feel better about making the spend to bring back Gray.... or someone else.  I think though we are more likely to see either Maeda or Wacha or Lugo for the pitcher we sign.  better than dumpster diving but not Gray either.  And the starting pitcher is really the big expense of the offseason.  we may sign a veteran reliever or 3 on a minor league deal or maybe sign a bench player like MAT or Solano and that is it.  

PS.  I see a satire article coming about the ways the twins can replace their missing TV Revenue.  

 

[Mark G]

Call me a cynic (or worse), but I can't help but think they will stand pat for the most part because they believe they can win an extremely weak division with the team they have and take their chances in October.  They will sign a bargain free agent or 3, trade a player or two for prospects, and sign at least one starting pitcher to round out the rotation; otherwise they will rely on their 40 man roster to fill whatever holes come up.  They had a winning season and broke the post season losing streak, and will now rest on their laurels until the pressure builds again.  

This is an organization that strives to be competitive, but will not do what it takes to be elite.  We have been to 2 World Series since the Pohlad's took ownership (40 years), and 3 overall since '61; we won the 2 under the Pohlad's.  Not an elite record by any means, but we have been competitive much of the time, and have been content.  We are who we are, and we know it; at least most do.  

I am a believer in the old adage "I tolerate the things I cannot change, but that does not mean I accept them."  So, every year I prod the team to do the things they know they can do to be elite, or at least improve, and every year I tolerate them not doing it.  But the vast majority of the fans have long ago accepted it, so what we see is what we will get.  Just my extremely humble observation.  

Wake me up in February, so I can catch the latest updates and watch a few spring training games.  😴

[Trov]

23 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is no shock to us Twins fans.  The Twins FO historically (no matter who has been in charge) moves at a snail's pace.  We here on TD have called it "dumpster diving."  It's always been frustrating because it makes the FO appear to have no plan or strategy going into the off season.  Certain players appear to be a good fit to fill a need at a decent price (talking the "mid tier" free agents here) and one by one they get snapped up and we're left "dumpster diving" for the JA Happ's and Dylan Bundy's of the world.

There are two SP that I would like the Twins to make a bid for this off season:  Eduardo Rodriguez (finally a LH starter??) and Trevor Bauer.  They are both classic "mid tier."  Not Blake Snell.  Not Aaron Nola.  Those guys will bust a budget for sure.  But I have a feeling the Twins will be out to lunch while these two potential rotation pieces are snapped up.

I get the TV deal uncertainty but there's ALWAYS an excuse to go dumpster diving for the Twins.  They broke that mold by trading for Lopez and Gray and finally had a good rotation.  The Twins are on the verge of some 2004-2009 division dominance with an outstanding core of young players making an impact.  But to remain competitive, they need to pitch, and that means one or two rotation acquisitions this off season.  Waiting won't yield "quality."  

The last 2 off-seasons they waited and signed CC both times.  They did not go out and overbid for him.  There have been reports we had been in the bidding on other FA in past that just went elsewhere, and believe sometimes we were reported to be either top or near top money.  After you are making crazy money you can be willing to take a little less for other reasons. Sure, it looks like dumpster diving at times, but going out and snatching up guys quickly does not always work out well either. 

In terms of the pitchers, I would be all for Rodriquez, but he has risk too, but no way would I want Bauer. He is a headcase in a half.  Even without his personal issues that led to Dodgers eating millions to tell him to stay home, the team that drafted him traded him for not much because of his personality.  Cleveland traded him when they were in first place and he was doing decent, not cy young level but good.  Dodgers signed him to huge deal, 30 mil plus a year and paid him to not pitch.  Then no team wanted to sign him last year, so he went to Japan.  Maybe he has matured after that, but all reports are he is terrible clubhouse guy and I would not want him around just for that. I believe in baseball having a good clubhouse is important because of how much time you spend together.  When you have a guy no teammates want to be around it leads to issues. 

[Linus]

I am going to have more patience with our FO than I normally do. Between Buxton and AK health and an uncertain revenue situation they really have to thread a needle this off-season. Just saw the Padres had to borrow $50 million last season to make payroll. I guess it might be the right time to roll the dice with some kids. I also do not expect a free agent starter to be signed but likely a trade for one. 

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

Just saw the Padres had to borrow $50 million last season to make payroll.

There's a bias in what stories show up in the newspaper. Why did that financial tidbit make it into the news but you never see stories showing that some team was massively profitable unless they have to disclose it publicly (like Atlanta 2022)?

[Linus]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There's a bias in what stories show up in the newspaper. Why did that financial tidbit make it into the news but you never see stories showing that some team was massively profitable unless they have to disclose it publicly (like Atlanta 2022)?

Perhaps. I have no idea if there was bias involved but it was reported fairly widely. I assume that was when they weren’t getting their TV money. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

There's a bias in what stories show up in the newspaper. Why did that financial tidbit make it into the news but you never see stories showing that some team was massively profitable unless they have to disclose it publicly (like Atlanta 2022)?

I have done internet searches on profitability every year for at least the past decade.  Generally, what I find are articles estimating profitability for all teams.  I find very little on the least profitable teams but I do occasionally see articles on the most profitable teams like this one for 2022.  Most profitable MLB teams IN 2022.   If there is any bias, I would say it is to report on which teams made a bundle because it's more likely to capture the attention of fan that reads this type of stuff.

BTW .... I don't remember an article that has ever had the Twins in the top half in terms of profitability.  See a lot of articles with them in the bottom 10.

[DJL44]

MLB team has financial difficulties: issue a press release or at least leak it to a reporter

MLB team makes a lot of money: No comment

There is a history of ownership lying to the press about their finances, always crying poor.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I have done internet searches on profitability every year for at least the past decade.  Generally, what I find are articles estimating profitability for all teams.  I find very little on the least profitable teams but I do occasionally see articles on the most profitable teams like this one for 2022.  Most profitable MLB teams IN 2022.   If there is any bias, I would say it is to report on which teams made a bundle because it's more likely to capture the attention of fan that reads this type of stuff.

BTW .... I don't remember an article that has ever had the Twins in the top half in terms of profitability.  See a lot of articles with them in the bottom 10.

Not sure that's a great example of bias towards "articles on the most profitable teams." It's actually the first type of article you mentioned and it just estimates the profits of every team. And it doesn't even link to any explanation of the numbers. It's really not an article at all, it's just a slideshow with pictures of all 30 teams and made up profit numbers.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure that's a great example of bias towards "articles on the most profitable teams." It's actually the first type of article you mentioned and it just estimates the profits of every team. And it doesn't even link to any explanation of the numbers. It's really not an article at all, it's just a slideshow with pictures of all 30 teams and made up profit numbers.

OK.  That was not a good example.  Have you ever Googled various combinations of keyword phrases related to profitability and loss.  I have spent a lot of hours over the years researching MLB finances.  If you have done these searches, you ever know there are far more articles about profit than loss.   The only time losses have been discussed frequently was 2020 during Covid.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

OK.  That was not a good example.  Have you ever Googled various combinations of keyword phrases related to profitability and loss.  I have spent a lot of hours over the years researching MLB finances.  If you have done these searches, you ever know there are far more articles about profit than loss.   The only time losses have been discussed frequently was 2020 during Covid.  

That is fair. I would assume that. The owners actually encourage it by claiming to be losing money all the time. When billionaires complain to the "regular folk" whom they're asking to pay ever rising ticket fees, cable fees, streaming fees, concession prices, parking prices, merch prices, and the list goes on and on while the billionaire's watch their team's values skyrocket what do you think is going to happen? Human nature.

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:29 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

This is no shock to us Twins fans.  The Twins FO historically (no matter who has been in charge) moves at a snail's pace.  We here on TD have called it "dumpster diving."  It's always been frustrating because it makes the FO appear to have no plan or strategy going into the off season.  Certain players appear to be a good fit to fill a need at a decent price (talking the "mid tier" free agents here) and one by one they get snapped up and we're left "dumpster diving" for the JA Happ's and Dylan Bundy's of the world.

There are two SP that I would like the Twins to make a bid for this off season:  Eduardo Rodriguez (finally a LH starter??) and Trevor Bauer.  They are both classic "mid tier."  Not Blake Snell.  Not Aaron Nola.  Those guys will bust a budget for sure.  But I have a feeling the Twins will be out to lunch while these two potential rotation pieces are snapped up.

I get the TV deal uncertainty but there's ALWAYS an excuse to go dumpster diving for the Twins.  They broke that mold by trading for Lopez and Gray and finally had a good rotation.  The Twins are on the verge of some 2004-2009 division dominance with an outstanding core of young players making an impact.  But to remain competitive, they need to pitch, and that means one or two rotation acquisitions this off season.  Waiting won't yield "quality."  

I agree with what you and Nashvilletwin wrote regarding the starting rotation. I think this time around it will NOT benefit us to wait and see what the options are in January or February. We need to get at least one of the vacated spots (Gray and Maeda) re-signed or find another quality pitcher via trade or free agency. As the OP pointed out, we benefited greatly from the Gray and Lopez trades, so that may be our best option, but waiting until the snow melts won't cut it. 

[MGM4706]

STOP with the excuse of the uncertain Bally contract. The Twins know that whoever gets the contract it will be more than the last contract. That is true with all the teams that have already renewed their deals. So that is a Non-Issue. Don't let the Pohlads hoodwink you again!