How Will the Twins Approach a Thin Free Agent Pitching Class?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins constructed a 2023 team built around significant depth. After having to cycle through a handful of arms to complete the season, they became one of the best rotations in baseball. Repeating means they’ll need to add, but how?

 

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Going into the season, the front office made a difficult decision to flip fan-favorite batting champion Luis Arraez in exchange for Pablo Lopez. That worked out wonderfully for both teams, and the Twins got an Ace. They backfilled Arraez’s spot with Edouard Julien and now have much more praise for the move.

Lopez will be back and start on Opening Day for Minnesota. Behind him, Sonny Gray is not expected to be back. Sure, he is a free agent and could be signed to a new deal by Minnesota, but he will have no shortage of suitors, and the front office shouldn’t be paying him for the Cy Young performance he put up this season. Allocating dollars to Gray would need to include a belief in his performance over the next two or three years, and Derek Falvey could undoubtedly opt to spend those dollars elsewhere.

Therein lies the rub. This free-agent pitching class isn’t exactly ideal. Shohei Ohtani wasn’t ever going to be likely for the Twins, but he isn’t a pitcher next season, and the prognosis for the future remains uncertain. That leaves the top names being Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. Again, there will be no shortage of suitors for their services this year, and Snell coming off a Cy Young award isn’t going to drive his price down at all.

Looking at the Twins rotation, though, it might not be about spending on the open market at all. The Twins know they need to increase pitching depth and doing something like pushing Bailey Ober to Triple-A makes sense. This year, that would probably come in the form of Louie Varland, but doing so with a starter that slots in just above him can’t happen.

Lopez will be the ace, and then some combination of Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Ober will work behind him. Adding a Gray-level starter or someone better than Kenta Maeda needs to be the plan, and they can find that match by contacting the 29 other teams.

When looking to restock the Twins rotation, Derek Falvey hasn’t spent significantly on a starting pitcher. Lopez’s dollars came through an extension, and Gray had already brought team control with him. That means working a trade is already a path he has shown plenty of ability to do and has created depth within the rotation.

The front office may consider a few depth arms worth packaging toward a more prominent player. Brent Headrick, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Cory Lewis are all varying degrees of players who may fall into this category. There is also the glut of infield options that the Twins have at their disposal. Brooks Lee is likely off the table, but Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Luke Keaschall, and Tanner Schobel are prospects for which playing time may eventually need to be found.

Hitting on another arm through trade is something that should also bring a level of comfort due to the recent track record. Sure, the Twins front office has their fair share of misses, but the last two frontline starters that have been acquired represent substantial wins. It’s not every trade that you’ll find a Joe Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz lopsided outcome, but being able to effectively scout yourself and the competition when making big swings is a skill.

No matter how the Twins go about player acquisition this offseason, they will have multiple options. Just because the crop on the open market may be expensive or less-than-ideal doesn’t mean the Twins have to participate. Falvey has done a great job reminding us that his work construction isn’t done until Opening Day arrives. 

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[Patzky]

Eduardo Rodriguez. 

[TopGunn#22]

One name the Twins could explore on the free agent market is Eduardo Rodriguez.  He won't be nearly as expensive as a Blake Snell, Aaron Nola or even a Sonny Gray.  Gray will not come close to the season he put up for the Twins in the coming years of his career so I'm fine with making the Qualifying Offer and getting some draft pick compensation.  Rodriguez would also finally give the Twins a lefty in the rotation as well.

It's pretty clear that they need to bring in at least one arm and maybe even two.  Ryan, Ober, and Maeda all spent time on the I.L. and Paddock, while showing promise in the playoffs isn't a sure thing to throw 180 innings.  Depth is what saved the Twins this year and they will need it in 2024.  That's why I would make a strong bid for Rodriguez while still looking to make a trade.  I think the Twins pick up the option year on Kepler and Polanco, but if the right deal came around for Polanco, I think they make a trade with him.  Julien looks good and Brooks Lee may just make the team out of spring training.  With Castro around (even if Farmer is also traded) there's plenty to work with for 2B. 

Pitching is going to be really tough to secure however, both on the FA market and through trades.  The Dodgers and Cardinals are FULLY in the pitching market, but there are a lot of other teams that will be looking too.  The Orioles will need to bolster their young pitchers with some solid vets.  The free agents will be snapped up before our FO has a cup of morning coffee.  They are always late to the party.  This is why I'd like to see them make a strong play for Eduardo Rodriguez EARLY in free agency. 

[Brandon]

If we sign a starter for depth further down like a number 5 starter, we could always bring back old friend Kyle Gibson.  
 

We still need a number 2-3 starter.  I would like to see what Gray is willing to sign for.  His next contract will push his career earnings to over 100 million so I wonder what it will take as I think once he hits a number that the family stuff kicks in and becomes a priority.  Of the tens in proximity to his home the competition could be St. Louis except they are not contenders.  Tampa if they are in the market for another pitching salary which I doubt.  Texas Rangers are a possibility.  I don’t think the Astros are losing anyone so they are probably out.  Cincinnati could RE-enter the picture. Who else would Gray be interested in signing with?  Cubs?  Red Sox? Baltimore?  It will be interesting to see.  
 

This site was talking Jordan Montgomery as a FA too earlier.  
 

Miami needs a 3B and offensive upgrades.  Is there a trade package we could put together for Meyer or another starter?  

[EGFTShaw]

Better the devil you know...hence start with SonnyG.  If we do sign him there will need to be compromise between SonnyG and the Twins; $$s vs Term.  I know he will most likely not be sub 3.00 ERA over the term of the contract, but I think he can be 3.00-3.3333333333ERA and that's a good pitcher, if the Price is Right.

If SonnyG wants longer term, average annual value (AAV) goes down.

If SonnyG wants $$s, (yes I know he said it wasn't all about $$s), then term is shorter.

Our FO is creative if nothing else.

Alway hesitant to jump into the FA SP market.  Most do not end up like Mad Max did with the Curly Ws in DC or how Garret Cole so far is doing in the Ugly PinStripes. 😆

Trevor Bauer - great talent but questionable teammate.  I mean if he was really cheap, maybe but I would get a consensus from key teammates before making a deal for TB.

I don't know enough about our minor league talent so can't make any suggestions there.

But personally I think it starts with SonnyG.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I think the market has a lot of potential candidates for a co-ace.

Multi-year Deals:

Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery

Short-term Deals:

Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Charlie Morton, Martin Perez, Kyle Hendricks, Lucas Giolito, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty, Trevor Bauer, and Kenta Maeda

 

I think E-Rod could fly under the radar a bit, he'll only be 31 next season, but top-2 Cy Young finishes for Gray/Snell, along with playoff dominance by Montgomery/Nola may mean that big spenders will overlook the former Red Sox lefty.

[Karbo]

I can envision a rotation of Lopez, Paddack, Ober, Ryan, and Varland next year. Would like to see them sign another 2-3 type starter and try to talk Varland into the pen for now. That would leave some questions to be answered in the minors, but they seem to have some promising arms coming. Now if Gray will sign here, he would slide into #2 spot with the others moving down. Then you tell Varland if you want to play in the majors you need to go to the pen.

[chpettit19]

Not sure why people think Rodriguez is going to be cheaper than Sonny. If he's a FA it's because he opted out of a 3 year/49 million deal. Why would he opt out of that if he isn't going to be chasing 3/60+ like Sonny is? He's also much younger than Sonny. 

For me it's:

1A- Nola
1B- Snell
2- Rodriguez
3- Trade for another Lopez type guy you can extend

I don't think Sonny Gray can repeat his performance from this year, and that's the kind of pitching we need. I don't want a number 2-3 starter, I want another #1 starter. Sonny is a #2-3 starter moving forward, but he pitched like a #1 this year. 

I'll happily wait a DH year from Ohtani if they can make that happen 😜

[Brett]

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I can envision a rotation of Lopez, Paddack, Ober, Ryan, and Varland next year. Would like to see them sign another 2-3 type starter and try to talk Varland into the pen for now. That would leave some questions to be answered in the minors, but they seem to have some promising arms coming. Now if Gray will sign here, he would slide into #2 spot with the others moving down. Then you tell Varland if you want to play in the majors you need to go to the pen.

I’m not sure Varland should stay in the pen. We will have at least 8 and more likely 10ish guys make starts next year. Paddack will need rest at some point, and Ryan/Ober/Varland will probably fill 2 and sometimes 3 spots in the rotation. We will likely see Festa and SWR, maybe Lewis, and I can even dream about Raya (although ‘25 seems much more likely). Even if we get 30 starts from Pablo and the next 4 average 25 starts (not likely), we still need 32 more starts from others.

Appreciate this conversation. I haven’t felt this good about Twins pitching for a long time, and I’m juiced for the offseason to see what it brings.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Actually, that's not a bad suggestion from Fat Calvin.  Now that the truth has come out, Bauer doesn't look nearly the villain he was made out to be.  Not a choir boy by any stretch of the imagination, but he's a talented pitcher and has shown to be a horse durability-wise.  I wonder what kind of contract it would take.  

I live in LA and the rumor here is that he was a bad teammate. Wen the allegations against him arose, the Dodgers supposedly canvassed the team to see if they should keep him around. The sentiment of the players was reportedly to get rid of him. No love from his teammates and no reported thought here of bringing him back. Given all of the baggage, I wouldn't be in favor of signing Bauer. I'll actually be surprised if he lands with an MLB team for next year. 

[Beast]

I’ll be surprised if they do anything significant.

Maybe they try to bring back Gray on a team friendly, short-term deal.  But I think he cashes in one last contract somewhere else.

There is zero chance at someone like Snell, Nola, etc.  Not happening.

I could see a cheap, short term deal for a veteran.  Something to the Rich Hill deal a few years back.

My guess is they let Sonny walk, bump everyone up, and backfill the back end of the rotation with a cheap free agent or internally.

I could see a prove it deal for an injury case like Severino, Paxton, or Montas.  An underachiever like Flaherty or Keller.

Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are locked in.  Paddack will be given every opportunity.  I’d guess Varland will also.  SWR is taking up a 40 man spot.  They won’t run him off without another chance.

What I’d like them to do, realistically, is sign someone like Lorenzen or Heaney, and also bring back Mahle.  That’s about the max I can actually see them doing.

[tony&rodney]

David Festa needs another year of experience in AAA, but he isn't a depth piece. If he can make similar improvement next year as he has in the last couple of years, Festa can fit right into the middle of a rotation. Marco Raya is likely two years away. The Twins need to listen to all offers. I believe that only Jenkins and Lewis are off limits. There are options and similar to last winter the Twins only need to find a partner to pull off a worthwhile trade.

[weitz41]

This should be an interesting offseason when it comes to starting pitching.

About 350-360 innings of the 2023 team are free agents. Just guessing and hoping for continued good health. 2024. Lopez 180-200 innings, Ryan 160-180 innings, Ober 160-180 innings, Paddack 80-120 innings and Varland 80-100 innings. Using my finger and toes that's around 180 innings short. Maybe SWR, Festa, Canterino and Dobnak take some of those innings, but I don't think that's a good plan depth wise. 

So that leaves me wanting at least 180 innings from free agents or players they trade for.

I'd say two FA pitchers would be a good call to cover those innings and make the rotation 8+ deep. It's highly unlikely we have another full season of good health. 1st I'd hope to resign Gray. If that happens great. Maybe bring in a rebound type then and call it good. Without resigning Gray. Depending on how you feel about Snell's inconsistency and Nola's ERA, I just think the dollars are going to be way too high to get either of them in a Twins uniform. I'd disqualify Ohtani, Urias, Bauer and Kershaw for mostly obvious reasons. Montgomery would top my list. His playoff run may price him out of the FO's comfort zone. This feels like I could ramble on forever...Something like Micheal Wacha and Kenta Maeda on two-year deals feels about right to me and would cost about the same or less than Gray over those two seasons.

[Rik19753]

7 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I think the market has a lot of potential candidates for a co-ace.

Multi-year Deals:

Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery

Short-term Deals:

Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Charlie Morton, Martin Perez, Kyle Hendricks, Lucas Giolito, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty, Trevor Bauer, and Kenta Maeda

 

I think E-Rod could fly under the radar a bit, he'll only be 31 next season, but top-2 Cy Young finishes for Gray/Snell, along with playoff dominance by Montgomery/Nola may mean that big spenders will overlook the former Red Sox lefty.

Thank you for providing this list. I was hoping to see who would be potential targets for the Twins, which surprisingly this article didn't mention.

Honestly, that does not look like a thin free agent class at all. There seem to be a ton of bounce back candidates in the short-term deals bucket, and I think the Twins would be thrilled to have any of them as their 4th or 5th starter.

[DJL44]

This front office likes to acquire starters who are getting expensive in arbitration instead of being the high bidder in free agency. I expect that preference to continue.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Brandon said:

If we sign a starter for depth further down like a number 5 starter, we could always bring back old friend Kyle Gibson.  
 

We still need a number 2-3 starter.  I would like to see what Gray is willing to sign for.  His next contract will push his career earnings to over 100 million so I wonder what it will take as I think once he hits a number that the family stuff kicks in and becomes a priority.  Of the tens in proximity to his home the competition could be St. Louis except they are not contenders.  Tampa if they are in the market for another pitching salary which I doubt.  Texas Rangers are a possibility.  I don’t think the Astros are losing anyone so they are probably out.  Cincinnati could RE-enter the picture. Who else would Gray be interested in signing with?  Cubs?  Red Sox? Baltimore?  It will be interesting to see.  
 

This site was talking Jordan Montgomery as a FA too earlier.  
 

Miami needs a 3B and offensive upgrades.  Is there a trade package we could put together for Meyer or another starter?  

Jordan Montgomery!!!! 4 years - $88M ……done! No other team improvements needed.

Texas has deGrom $50M/yr - Scherzer $42M/yr - Heaney$18M/yr - Eovaldi $23M/yr all signed for next year & Montgomery is a FA.

Poor man’s answer, if we can’t sign Montgomery, to pitching depth is Martin Perez from Texas at $13M & KENTA MAEDA at $13M/yr for two years. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have position player depth, which is good, and they would like to keep that depth. Thing is, starting pitching prices will be high and there is a pretty dire lack of position players available via free agency or trade. The Twins will check in on some starting pitchers and find the bidding too steep. This leaves the Twins looking for teams that find value in their position players. All of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, Wallner will draw some interest as will veterans Kepler, Polanco, and Farmer. Additionally, a few teams may see Brooks Lee or another couple of prospects worthy of a conversation.

Conversely, the Twins could essentially stand pat and count on solid returns from injured players, a rebound or two from players that were disappointing this year, and increased production from the young guys who led the team in the second half of the year. The Twins may also feel that their AA and AAA players may step in and help as needed.

Two directions are possible for Falvey. Fans (me/others) may be asking for additions to the roster but the pickings are slim unless they wade into the deep end. I'm not at all sure what to think about the cost or baseball value of guys like Maeda, Severino, Montas, or a couple of others. Trades or ride the current talent seems to be the play. We could all make two rosters: one that just uses what is available and another includes individual ideas for trades.

[DocBauer]

I'd love to have Gray back. He's high quality, a gamer, and a leader. But I just don't see the Vikings offering 3yrs and $65-70M for someone in their age 34-36 seasons. 

I believe they are looking for another Gray/Lopez kind of deal.

But on the FA market, the guy I like is Eduardo Rodriguez. He's LH, 3yrs younger than Gray, and there were rumors at the deadline of a 3 team deal that included him and Gray, with Rodriguez coming to Minnesota. That tells me the Twins are interested, and see something to work on and tweak to take him to the next level. 

I think they might still need a flier, probably/hopefully on a milb deal for depth. Someone to sit at St Paul to begin the season, more than likely, working their way back. I'm just super curious and intrigued about Dan Hayes's suggestion of the rehabbing Jake Odorizzi. Just makes a ton of sense.

[Doctor Wu]

    ... Adding a Gray-level starter or someone better than Kenta Maeda needs to be the plan ...

Not so sure about that. I'd love to have either Gray or Maeda back, but their age and injury history make me think otherwise. I'm guessing that in Gray's case he'll be wanting a fairly long deal, but I don't see him as an effective starter 3 years down the line. I'm assuming Paddack slides into the starting rotation and maybe Ober and Varland can be solid too.  Getting pitchers like Aaron Nola and Eduardo Rodriquez would be sweet, but I doubt the Twins would pony up the money. No thanks on Blake Snell. He's coming off a great year, but he's been too up and down over the course of his career.

[LewFordLives]

"Brooks Lee is likely off the table."

I don't think anyone should be off the table. The Twins will most likely get priced out of the free-agent market, so that leaves a trade.  To get something good you have to give up something good (see Lopez -Arraez).   

If the Twins had any success developing pitching they wouldn't be in this situation. But it is what it is.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Twins front office has grown accustomed to doing the unexpected. I expect something similar this off-season. 

[Major League Ready]

I would not call this FA class thin with Shohei Ohtani / Blake Snell / Aaron Nola / Jordan Montgomery  / Sonny Gray / Marcus Stroman / Eduardo Rodriquez / Lucas Giolito / Julio Urias / Martin Perez / Jack Flaherty and bounce back guys like Tyler Mahle  / Luis Severino and Frankie Montas.  They need to pony up for one of the top free agents.  We don't really know how much they have to spend but they can get payroll down to $122M if they trade Polanco and down to $115M if they trade or non-tender farmer.   It should be doable.  Getting one of these guys moves Varland to the BP and the 6th man when a starter goes down.

[IndianaTwin]

21 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I live in LA and the rumor here is that he was a bad teammate. Wen the allegations against him arose, the Dodgers supposedly canvassed the team to see if they should keep him around. The sentiment of the players was reportedly to get rid of him. No love from his teammates and no reported thought here of bringing him back. Given all of the baggage, I wouldn't be in favor of signing Bauer. I'll actually be surprised if he lands with an MLB team for next year. 

Agree. The Twins seem to have placed an emphasis on character, in their trades, their signings and their drafting. Whether or not there was anything to this, this wasn't the first time Bauer was in the news for a poor choice.   

[NishiokaStan]

Just taking a quick look at rebuilding teams who might sell a #2-tier starter, here are the options I see:

• Dylan Cease (Like this option, but no FA until 2026 means a high price tag)
• Mitch Keller (Like his stuff, same issue with the price)

And really that's it. You could try to wrestle away a guy from some sorta-contenders, like Senga from the Mets or another Marlins guy, but even if those teams would sell the price tag would be exorbitant. I'll be upset if we move significant prospects for one of these guys when we could get Gray, Nola, Snell, or Rodriguez just by paying them. Jordan Montgomery is showing a lot in these playoffs too, though I think that might raise his price a bit higher than it should be.

Heck, I'd even prefer a bet on one of Maeda, Lorenzen, Severino, or Flaherty. Bottom line, spending money is way better than spending prospects imo, even when taking budgetary restrictions into account.

 

[terrydactyls]

I would like to see the Twins sign two bounce back candidates (Severino, Giolito, etc) to "prove it" deals and also make a trade with a rebuilding team of two or three young position players for a young-ish starting pitcher whom Pete Maki believes is on the verge of big things.  I haven't got any names in mind right now but maybe when I'm recovering from knee replacement surgery, I can do some research.

[dex8425]

23 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

We should try to sign Trevor Bauer. 

I'd be fine with that, but the Twins wouldn't. Dodgers ran him off the team, for reasons other than the allegations. Seems like he had no clubhouse issues with the Reds though. The Twins do their research on clubhouse chemistry stuff so I'd guess they would pass. They won't make the Donaldson mistake again. 

[dex8425]

50 minutes ago, NishiokaStan said:

Just taking a quick look at rebuilding teams who might sell a #2-tier starter, here are the options I see:

• Dylan Cease (Like this option, but no FA until 2026 means a high price tag)
• Mitch Keller (Like his stuff, same issue with the price)

And really that's it. You could try to wrestle away a guy from some sorta-contenders, like Senga from the Mets or another Marlins guy, but even if those teams would sell the price tag would be exorbitant. I'll be upset if we move significant prospects for one of these guys when we could get Gray, Nola, Snell, or Rodriguez just by paying them. Jordan Montgomery is showing a lot in these playoffs too, though I think that might raise his price a bit higher than it should be.

Heck, I'd even prefer a bet on one of Maeda, Lorenzen, Severino, or Flaherty. Bottom line, spending money is way better than spending prospects imo, even when taking budgetary restrictions into account.

 

Agree here. I'd bet on Giolito or Flaherty instead of buying high on Snell or Montgomery. Nola's ERA and FIP were both over 4 this year, pass. 

[nicksaviking]

I disagree the free agent class is thing, there are plenty of free agents I'd be interested in; more than most years. However, when it comes to free agent starters, this front office has never addressed the front of the rotation, only the back. The trades have been aggressive so that's where I'd expect them to go again.

As last winters deal went so well for both clubs, I could see them hitting up Miami again. The Marlins offense still stinks and the Twins still have tons of young hitters to offer.

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

"Brooks Lee is likely off the table."

I don't think anyone should be off the table. The Twins will most likely get priced out of the free-agent market, so that leaves a trade.  To get something good you have to give up something good (see Lopez -Arraez).   

If the Twins had any success developing pitching they wouldn't be in this situation. But it is what it is.

Varland and Ober.  =. Success developing starting pitchers.  

We actually have 5 solid starters going into the offseason for next season.  We just don’t have any depth whatsoever going into next year as it is currently Dobnak, Wood-Richardson, Festa and Oh.  (I would hate to count on any of these pitchers for an extended amount of time). 

Because we are in contention we want a top starter vs another depth option, otherwise someone to stash in AAA would be fine in a noncontending year.

 

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm just super curious and intrigued about Dan Hayes's suggestion of the rehabbing Jake Odorizzi. Just makes a ton of sense.

I'm fine with Odorizzi being next season's Keuchel but they absolutely need to get a top of the rotation starter to replace Gray.