NishiokaStan

True enough! I think it’s especially rough for these guys to be going through their growing pains when every game means so much.

Zebby Matthews made his 2024 debut in front of 663 fans at Rise 2 Greatness Field. Though the name of the Cedar Rapids Kernels home stadium comes from a local foundation, it seems Matthews took it as an order. On August 13th, he completed his meteoric rise, making his MLB debut in front of 25,000 fans at Target Field. The young right-hander looked ready for the moment as well, pitching 5 solid innings, striking out 5 and only allowing 2 ER against a Royals lineup full of tough outs. Matthews answered a call that night that the Twins will be making many times throughout the last month and a half of the season. With Joe Ryan recently joining rotation mate Chris Paddack on the IL, the Twins will see an influx of youth in their rotation behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. Make no mistake, Matthews and fellow youngsters David Festa and Louie Varland are no lambs being sent to the slaughter. The Twins have high hopes for their respective futures, but the future has come sooner than most expected. Twins fans will surely be wondering how viable this fresh-faced rotation can be as the team looks to finish the season strong and lock in another playoff appearance. Fears may be running especially high with the failure to bolster the rotation at the deadline still visible in the rearview mirror. Historical precedent paints a mixed picture of the success one can expect from a young starting rotation, adding to the uncertainty. Twins fans of a certain age will of course remember the rotation full of 20-somethings that the club rode to its second World Series championship in 1991 (and knowing many of those fans personally, they will also be sure to let you know that Pablo Lopez is no Jack Morris). In particular, Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson played massive roles despite having a combined 55 appearances in the majors entering the season. Those who’ve only watched those two play on grainy YouTube videos may instead point to recent Mariners teams or this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates as teams that leaned heavily on young pitchers and were rewarded well. Of course, someone more sadistic than I could likely name a laundry list of teams that placed their hopes in young starting pitchers and were routinely kicked in the teeth for it; I’ll choose optimism this time around. With history being as muddled as it is, the best way to project the fortunes of the Twins rotation going forward is to take a clear-eyed look at its current state. Again, we’re left with reasons for both optimism and skepticism. The trio of Varland, Festa, and Matthews have all experienced success this season in the high minors, and Festa and Matthews are beginning to find places in the back end of national Top 100 Prospects lists. However, Varland and Festa have experienced significant ups and downs in their limited tastes of the majors, and Matthews is a complete unknown at the top level. Additionally, all three are late round draft picks that represent huge wins for the Twins’ player development, but also might leave nervous Twins fans wondering if an early push to the big leagues will abruptly halt their growth. Even if all three pitchers beat the odds and find success down the stretch, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Pitching Coach Pete Maki will soon be dealing with the headaches of managing the health of their young arms. For one, all three pitchers are still trying to build up to a Major League workload, and in the meantime starts of 4 or 5 innings will increasingly become the norm. Unfortunately, whether your starter is 25 years old or 45, your team still needs to pitch all 9 innings. As such the Twins bullpen will be experiencing extra strain at a time when arms are already worn out by a long season. Should the Twins achieve their goal of making the postseason, a whole new set of challenges will present themselves. Though all three pitchers deserve credit for the poise they’ve shown so far on MLB mounds, a postseason atmosphere is an entirely different mental challenge (think: about 80 times the turnout Zebby Matthews saw at Rise 2 Greatness Field). Additionally, the trio of young pitchers would be gameplanned against to an extent far beyond what they’ve ever seen, and making in-game adjustments is a trait usually attributed to experience. Whatever your personal level of optimism, it’s undeniable that the Twins' hand being forced in this way only makes a playoff run more difficult. Of course, this is no fault of Varland, Festa, or Matthews. The Twins front office had their chance to bolster their ranks at the trade deadline, and chose to place their bets on what they had. The fact that those bets have shifted to much less proven commodities is unfortunate, but not unpredictable. On the other hand, each of these young men had to come up and pitch at some point, and all three have momentum behind them that could propel them to a strong finish this season. Everyone within the organization has preached belief in this trio, but that’s easy to do when they’re honing their craft away from the spotlights and cameras. These young men have now been propelled into the fire of an MLB pennant chase. How they handle the heat will be a primary factor in determining the Twins’ ultimate fate. This article was originally posted on my personal blog, Northern Platitudes.

That's a good point, that probably wasn't the right word to use in that situation as it implies more fault on the players' side than I intended.

I think Gordon is maybe the most all-or-nothing player of the three. The other two might be able to hang around even with middling performances. Gordon probably has to be his 2022 self - in which case he's hard to get rid of - or he might be gone, agreed.

Baseball rosters are big. They are also constantly shuffling, and sometimes players can find themselves lost in this shuffle. At times this can be chalked up to their role as a journeyman, placeholder kind of player. They’re a warm body for two weeks until the guy they replaced comes back, then they slip into the void. Still sad, but unavoidable in this business. Other times though, players who were once thought to be building blocks with bright futures ahead of them can lose their footing and slip into the roster shuffle malaise. In 2023, three promising young Twins players experienced that slip. Jorge Alcala, once firmly in the late-inning mix of the bullpen, continued his multi-year battle with injuries. Nick Gordon tried to follow up an encouraging season, only to fracture his right shin in May and miss the rest of the year. Finally, perhaps most surprising was Jose Miranda, who turned from a shooting star in 2023 into a falling meteorite in 2024. With the Twins being a contending team on the upswing, competition for roster spots is bound to be fierce this season. Which of these three players will make the strongest argument for playing time and muster a role to impact the team in 2024? To find out, let’s delve a bit further into each of their cases. Jorge Alcala The potential is clear to see when watching Jorge Alcala. The 28-year-old righty mixes a mid-to-high 90s fastball with a power slider to produce a fiery pitcher’s cocktail. Unfortunately, Twins fans haven’t had much opportunity to see him in recent years. Injuries to his right elbow and forearm have conspired to limit him to 19 ⅔ innings the past two seasons. When healthy, Alcala has been effective, though perhaps a step away from a dominant force on the mound. Combining the shortened 2020 season with 2021, his only healthy full season in the majors, Alcala produced a 3.55 ERA in 83 ⅔ innings. His FIP, which tries to eliminate the influence of defensive quality from ERA, sits closer to 4.00 in that stretch. This is largely thanks to a penchant for strikeouts that is respectable, but a step below the standard that today’s late-inning relievers have set (88 Ks in that time). Additionally, Alcala’s pitch mix leaves him few answers for left-handed batters, who have managed an .803 OPS against him in his career. Entering 2024, the first question Alcala will have to answer is health. Should he finally be able to hold down a firm spot in the Twins bullpen again, the next question will be where that spot lies, especially with the recent major league additions of Josh Staumont and Jay Jackson. If he returns to his career norms, he will likely find himself behind the late-inning trio of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart. Alcala would be an asset in middle relief, however, and could keep the Twins in close games through the middle innings when starters are unable to pitch deep. All of this feels especially speculative until Alcala shakes his arm free of ailments. Nick Gordon Nick Gordon will have been racing to forget his 2023 season. The utilityman carried a putrid .185 OBP and .503 OPS into mid-May, before fracturing his shin and being shut down for the year. While last season was painful from beginning to end, he doesn’t need to look too far in the past for his bright spot. As the Twins floundered through 2022, Gordon found a spark of power in his bat that many in the game never saw coming. Through mechanical tweaks, he maximized the strength in his 6’0”, 160-pound frame and used it to produce a .427 slugging percentage and a .743 OPS, 11 percent better than the league average hitter. The makeover of his bat combined with his ability to play 2nd base and all over the outfield made Gordon a revelation in 2022. His willingness to take on those different positions revealed another of his strengths, one that has been consistent throughout Gordon’s career: his attitude. The former 5th overall pick did not follow a prodigy’s path to the major leagues. Through up-and-down seasons in the minors, Gordon battled gastrointestinal issues for years that made it hard to put on weight or even eat a sustainable diet. He also contracted Covid-19 during the 2020 season. Through it all he carried a smile and an infectiousness that his teammates adored, just as he did through last year’s trials. Just look back at the Twins highlights from 2023 and count the times you spot Gordon on the top step of the dugout, beaming his signature smile and waving his limbs around in unbridled joy. It seems the energy he brings to the clubhouse will never be absent, and will always keep Twins players, staff, and fans firmly on his side. This year, it will be up to Gordon to rediscover his 2022 form that took him from clubhouse MVP to on-field contributor. If he can, he should find a utility role on the Twins bench at minimum, with some sustained starting time likely in the event of injuries. After he spent 2023 being his teammates’ biggest fan, Twins Territory is hoping they can once again celebrate Nick Gordon in 2024. Jose Miranda The tales of Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda share many similarities. Miranda grinded his way through the minors to earn his shot with the big league club, and when he got his first full-season look at the majors he exceeded expectations, finishing 2022 with a .268/.325/.426 line. He entered 2023 primed to build on his encouraging debut, but battled a shoulder injury as his numbers plummeted to the tune of a .566 OPS. A crucial difference: Miranda regained health in time to play in 39 games with the AAA St. Paul Saints, though this stretch did little to assuage concerns. Miranda was only able to muster a .686 OPS with just 3 HRs, a worrying reminder of his pre-2021 breakout profile, a slap hitter with little over-the-fence impact. Still, injuries can wreak all kinds of havoc, especially on young players. Optimism persists among Twins officials and fans that Miranda can be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Twins, even as their lineup becomes crowded with young talent. Even this year, a role seemed to exist for Miranda as the right-sided half of a 1B platoon with Alex Kiriloff, who carries injury concerns of his own. Then, it was announced that the Twins had signed veteran 1B Carlos Santana to a 1-year, $5.25 million dollar contract. Santana is a switch-hitter, but as he’s aged he has become a much better hitter from the right side. He is also a clear step-up from Miranda defensively, as last time Miranda was playing 1B in the majors he looked the part of someone still learning the intricacies (and some of the basics) of the position. Santana’s addition leaves Miranda firmly in St. Paul at the start of this year, and he will have to prove himself there while he waits for injuries or ineffectiveness to pave a path for his MLB redemption. Though the struggles of these three players may seem a bad omen, it actually stands as a good sign that all three must fight for their spots on the Twins roster. These are the kinds of battles that tend to take place at the edges of contending rosters, and they provide the level of accountability that pushes players to strive for continued improvement. It may not be entirely coincidence that all three of these players stumbled during the Twins’ transition from underachievers to contenders. Sometimes, losing seasons and lackluster rosters can breed complacency, even if the players don’t feel it setting in. As far as their likelihood of etching a role for themselves in the 2024 Twins roster, Nick Gordon feels like a smart bet due to his positional flexibility and clubhouse presence. Injuries to any one of Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro or Kyle Farmer could hand Gordon a significant role. A healthy Jorge Alcala also has a good chance of finding a role considering the team’s approach to bullpen construction that prioritizes depth and rotation. Finally, while it wouldn’t be crazy to see Jose Miranda in a Twins uniform this year, the presence of young stars (Royce Lewis, Kiriloff) and a supremely durable veteran (Santana) in front of him leaves him most likely to get comfortable at CHS Field this season.

2017 really was such a fun season. As a younger Twins fan, it was the first season I really followed where the Twins were relevant. I will always remember the baby-faced versions of Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, and Sano who really ignited my love for this team!

Yeah I wouldn’t say the Maeda deal on its own tell us much, but as I tried to lay out in the post I think it’s interesting when combined with Sonny and Pagan’s moves. Just speculation at the end of the day!

One of the more surefire ways for know-nothing schmucks like myself to gain insight into the world of MLB is to examine market trends. The unprecedented money spent on relievers in recent years indicates the growing importance that front offices are placing on bullpens. Stars such as Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper have recently received contracts that will overlap with their AARP benefits - evidence of a new emphasis on skirting the annual luxury tax brackets. Now, in the early days of the offseason, attentive Twins fans may be noticing a new trend: Their exes have been very popular. Their ex-pitchers in particular have garnered a lot of attention. The flurry of moves began in Detroit, where the Tigers agreed to a 2-year contract with the effective but oft-MIA Kenta Maeda. Before Twins fans could catch their breath, their 2023 team MVP Sonny Gray had found a new home in St. Louis. Then, in the most surprising transaction of the bunch, Emilio Pagan secured a 2-year, $16 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds. Yes, that Emilio Pagan! The man that was universally derided in Twins Territory as recently as April of this year will now spend the next two seasons making a dollar for every groan he elicited out of fans during his time in Minnesota. His $8 million salary for next season is currently tied for 12th among MLB relievers, So if market trends are supposed to reveal hints to the baseball audience, what does this rapid-fire raid on ex-Twins pitchers tell us? Perhaps it’s a coincidence, or these gentlemen were simply excited to escape another brutal Minnesota winter… Or perhaps other MLB brain trusts have noticed something that just a decade ago would have seemed impossible: The Twins seem to know what they’re doing when it comes to pitching. Now cynics could argue the exact opposite; if teams are rushing to pick up pitchers after they leave the Twins, couldn’t that mean they’re confident they can make them better than they did? But consider the three specific cases we have seen this offseason. Kenta Maeda joined the Twins after four solid seasons with the Dodgers. In LA’s formidable teams of those years, he often found himself towards the bottom of the rotation, and even accepted demotions to the bullpen during the team’s playoff runs. Though his overall numbers during his time in Minnesota depict him as the same #3 or 4 starter he was in LA (52 GS, 4.02 ERA, 106 ERA+), they are altered by two stretches in which he pitched through significant injuries. Thus, those numbers don’t reveal the new heights the Twins helped Maeda reach; he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting during the shortened 2020 season, and after battling injury issues early in 2023, he enjoyed a second half in which he put up a 3.79 ERA with a splendid 82 Ks in 71 ⅓ IP. Now, the Tigers are clearly believing in Maeda’s better days as a Twin, slotting him into the middle of their rotation as they push toward competing for the AL Central. Gray had a longer and more illustrious track record when the Twins acquired him, which is why he commanded their 1st round draft pick Chase Petty in trade. However, he was able to make himself an even wealthier man in St. Louis thanks in large part to the extra gear he found with the Twins this past season. Riding a revamped and reshaped sweeper, the 33-year-old finished 2nd in Cy Young voting - the highest of his career - and was the veteran leader of one of the best rotations in the league. He will be the undisputed #1 of the Cardinals staff, a vote of confidence from St. Louis’ front office in Gray’s fantastic Twins tenure. Compared to Maeda and Gray, Pagan joined the Twins with more significant question marks. He had stretches of success under his belt, most notably in Tampa Bay (2.31 ERA in 70 IP). He was also made expendable by the Padres after back to back seasons with an ERA over 4.50. Before long, those question marks turned to angry exclamation points, as Pagan blew 7 of 16 save opportunities in an infuriating 2022 season for the Twins. Though many considered his Twins debut season worthy of a swift release from the squad, Pagan entered 2023 in the team’s bullpen, albeit lower on the totem pole. He, like the team, rebounded in a big way. He pitched to a 2.99 ERA and continued to display his underrated durability by posting 69.1 IP. Though he deserves the majority of credit for his persistence and fortitude, Pagan was aided both by the Twins’ belief in him as well as their guidance in making his pitch mix more effective. He’ll reap the hefty rewards in Cincinnati over the next two years. It’s undeniable that all three of these pitchers improved during their time with the Twins. For Maeda and Gray the improvements were modest but important; Pagan’s 2023 season may have saved his career. After their Twins tenure was finished, all three entered a free agent market full of teams anxious and unafraid to compete for their signatures. Other signs exist of the Twins growing reputation as a top pitching organization, such as pitching coach Wes Johnson being poached midseason in 2022 and the consistent flow of unheralded prospects becoming solid big-league arms. Ultimately though, rival front offices typically have the most accurate and detailed view of the Twins operation; if they’re not scared to invest in the team’s pitching operation, perhaps the fans don’t have to be either.

I like the idea of Trivino on a 2-year deal. His command/control will likely be a huge issue when he first returns from his rehab, but the bullpen is in a place this year where we could likely make him something close to a mop-up man. Let him get some low-leverage big-league innings under his belt this year to regain his feel, then after a full offseason he could be a real solid piece of the 2025 bullpen. Thanks for the food for thought!

I agree with you about the guys who aren't good that the FO thinks they can magically fix (The Gallos, Shoemakers, etc. of the world). However, if you look at guys who are already decent and one or two steps from being impact players, it's a pretty good track record. Lopez obviously, and they even took Joe Ryan from everyone's player development darling (the Rays) and made him more than anyone expected he'd be. Therefore it's totally believable that they could find an extra gear for a guy like Mitch Keller, Alek Manoah, etc.

Dreamland is where the Twins ownership opens up the pocketbook just a little and doesn't cut back after a really promising season. Here in reality, I think I'd rather keep this wave of prospects together and try and ride them to a period of sustained success, rather than give one up for a guy we almost certainly won't pony up the cash to extend - even if he wants to stay. If I were to give up one of our top 3 guys, it'd have to be for a frontline SP with 2+ years of control.

Just taking a quick look at rebuilding teams who might sell a #2-tier starter, here are the options I see: Dylan Cease (Like this option, but no FA until 2026 means a high price tag) Mitch Keller (Like his stuff, same issue with the price) And really that's it. You could try to wrestle away a guy from some sorta-contenders, like Senga from the Mets or another Marlins guy, but even if those teams would sell the price tag would be exorbitant. I'll be upset if we move significant prospects for one of these guys when we could get Gray, Nola, Snell, or Rodriguez just by paying them. Jordan Montgomery is showing a lot in these playoffs too, though I think that might raise his price a bit higher than it should be. Heck, I'd even prefer a bet on one of Maeda, Lorenzen, Severino, or Flaherty. Bottom line, spending money is way better than spending prospects imo, even when taking budgetary restrictions into account.