One of the more surefire ways for know-nothing schmucks like myself to gain insight into the world of MLB is to examine market trends. The unprecedented money spent on relievers in recent years indicates the growing importance that front offices are placing on bullpens. Stars such as Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper have recently received contracts that will overlap with their AARP benefits - evidence of a new emphasis on skirting the annual luxury tax brackets.

Now, in the early days of the offseason, attentive Twins fans may be noticing a new trend: Their exes have been very popular.

Their ex-pitchers in particular have garnered a lot of attention. The flurry of moves began in Detroit, where the Tigers agreed to a 2-year contract with the effective but oft-MIA Kenta Maeda. Before Twins fans could catch their breath, their 2023 team MVP Sonny Gray had found a new home in St. Louis. Then, in the most surprising transaction of the bunch, Emilio Pagan secured a 2-year, $16 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds.

Yes, that Emilio Pagan! The man that was universally derided in Twins Territory as recently as April of this year will now spend the next two seasons making a dollar for every groan he elicited out of fans during his time in Minnesota. His $8 million salary for next season is currently tied for 12th among MLB relievers, 

So if market trends are supposed to reveal hints to the baseball audience, what does this rapid-fire raid on ex-Twins pitchers tell us? Perhaps it’s a coincidence, or these gentlemen were simply excited to escape another brutal Minnesota winter… Or perhaps other MLB brain trusts have noticed something that just a decade ago would have seemed impossible: The Twins seem to know what they’re doing when it comes to pitching.

Now cynics could argue the exact opposite; if teams are rushing to pick up pitchers after they leave the Twins, couldn’t that mean they’re confident they can make them better than they did? But consider the three specific cases we have seen this offseason.

Kenta Maeda joined the Twins after four solid seasons with the Dodgers. In LA’s formidable teams of those years, he often found himself towards the bottom of the rotation, and even accepted demotions to the bullpen during the team’s playoff runs. 

Though his overall numbers during his time in Minnesota depict him as the same #3 or 4 starter he was in LA (52 GS, 4.02 ERA, 106 ERA+), they are altered by two stretches in which he pitched through significant injuries. Thus, those numbers don’t reveal the new heights the Twins helped Maeda reach; he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting during the shortened 2020 season, and after battling injury issues early in 2023, he enjoyed a second half in which he put up a 3.79 ERA with a splendid 82 Ks in 71 ⅓ IP. Now, the Tigers are clearly believing in Maeda’s better days as a Twin, slotting him into the middle of their rotation as they push toward competing for the AL Central.

Gray had a longer and more illustrious track record when the Twins acquired him, which is why he commanded their 1st round draft pick Chase Petty in trade. However, he was able to make himself an even wealthier man in St. Louis thanks in large part to the extra gear he found with the Twins this past season. Riding a revamped and reshaped sweeper, the 33-year-old finished 2nd in Cy Young voting - the highest of his career - and was the veteran leader of one of the best rotations in the league. He will be the undisputed #1 of the Cardinals staff, a vote of confidence from St. Louis’ front office in Gray’s fantastic Twins tenure.

Compared to Maeda and Gray, Pagan joined the Twins with more significant question marks. He had stretches of success under his belt, most notably in Tampa Bay (2.31 ERA in 70 IP). He was also made expendable by the Padres after back to back seasons with an ERA over 4.50. Before long, those question marks turned to angry exclamation points, as Pagan blew 7 of 16 save opportunities in an infuriating 2022 season for the Twins.

Though many considered his Twins debut season worthy of a swift release from the squad, Pagan entered 2023 in the team’s bullpen, albeit lower on the totem pole. He, like the team, rebounded in a big way. He pitched to a 2.99 ERA and continued to display his underrated durability by posting 69.1 IP. Though he deserves the majority of credit for his persistence and fortitude, Pagan was aided both by the Twins’ belief in him as well as their guidance in making his pitch mix more effective. He’ll reap the hefty rewards in Cincinnati over the next two years. 

It’s undeniable that all three of these pitchers improved during their time with the Twins. For Maeda and Gray the improvements were modest but important; Pagan’s 2023 season may have saved his career. After their Twins tenure was finished, all three entered a free agent market full of teams anxious and unafraid to compete for their signatures. Other signs exist of the Twins growing reputation as a top pitching organization, such as pitching coach Wes Johnson being poached midseason in 2022 and the consistent flow of unheralded prospects becoming solid big-league arms. Ultimately though, rival front offices typically have the most accurate and detailed view of the Twins operation; if they’re not scared to invest in the team’s pitching operation, perhaps the fans don’t have to be either.