What if Rocco Baldelli is Actually a Good Manager?

[Hans Birkeland]

It feels odd to say, but his managing moves have largely worked, and his team broke the most exhausting streak in sports. Most of the criticisms he's faced are unfounded. Could Rocco Baldelli actually be an asset as manager?

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success.

Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players.

Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics.

Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado.

Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario.

Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office.

And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters.

It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched.

It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half.

It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel:

In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched.

In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters.

Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over.

The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs.

More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position.

The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that.

Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%.

And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively.

The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then.

The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too).

For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more.

Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well. 

Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth.

If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first.

Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat.

In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries.

The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part.

It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing.

Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him.

Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know.

Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli.

Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli.

There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier.

It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility?

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[Muppet]

If the Twins went 100-62 Baldelli would take the fall for the 62. All of the posters here on TD know more than Baldelli even though probably more than 99% of us have never been in an mlb dugout. It's Buxton's fault that he's injured. Pagan still sucks...etc, etc, etc...

With Correa leading the team in batting average at .230* it is unbelievable that this team is so good. Also, this terrible front office brought us some of the best pitching the mlb has seen, Carlos Correa, and a plethora of young talent that has real potential. This is a fun team to watch and often full of surprises. 

To take a small market team with virtually no superstars and make them competitive requires a great front office and manager. Despite the fact that Gallo had too many at bats and they put in a pitcher you didn't like once or twice.

[farmerguychris]

I have no problem with Baldelli as our team manager.

Face it. Managers get too much credit when things go well, and too much blame when things go poorly.  There are so many variables (specifically injuries) that the manager has absolutely  no control over.

I feel too many Twins fans (for most teams probably) don't like it that analytics are playing such a huge role in managerial in-game decisions and that we aren't relying on our gut anymore.

Those fans have every right to feel that way, and maybe they're not wrong.  However - facts are that analytics simply are not going to go away.  You don't have to like them, and you don't have to subscribe that they are making the game better - But, I sincerely believe they are here to stay and will only become more and more involved in both in, and out of game decisions.

Baldelli is the perfect manager to be in place for an analytic driven type of decision making process.  He sees the benefits of analytics, and understands how to communicate the findings of said analytics to the players.  

This may not make him popular among fans, but then again - how many managers really are popular anyway and does fan popularity really matter anyway when more revenues are generated by tv contracts than the fans that actually show up in the stands?

[Boswell]

Based on recent experience, I’d take Dusty Baker over Rocco Baldelli… but Rocco Baldelli over John Schneider.  😂

[Mike Sixel]

 

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

Great article. What they didn't mention is Baldelli also got the team to buy into the plan, which is the sign of a good manager. No pouting from Joe Ryan or Kenta Maeda, for example.

[tony&rodney]

Experience is important in just about any area of life. Baldelli was raw and inexperienced almost by definition when he took the job as the Twins manager. He knows baseball through and through though and has been more comfortable every year in his job. He is a good manager. The job of manager is important but it has been a long time since we have seen the manager hit, pitch, or play in the field. 

Sometimes I'm taken aback at the comments attacking the managers. Of course, there is always going to be second guessing on many decisions no matter what the job entails. Still, we read condescending comments about high school coaches, Baldelli, and otherwise. I'm wondering if those who hold managers in low esteem also put engineers and surgeons on the same level. 

The title to the post is sort of odd/funny. Do people on Twins Daily really believe that they might know as much about baseball as a guy like Rocco? Or even many high school coaches?

We have opinions, for sure. When the Toronto manager pulls Berrios, there is a general move to second guess the decision, yet we cannot positively know that this call was not part of some conversation prior to the game. This is almost, but not, similar to lifting Ryan after two innings. Baseball has a far different communication and decision model today than it did 25 years ago. There are 30 manages in baseball and I believed that Francona was the best of the bunch. I also believe that all of them are good at their jobs. They exist along the spectrum in comparison to each other. Baldelli is a good manager, is what I would say. I like Rocco. Then again, I'm also someone who thinks that Paul Molitor and his experience would have been an even better choice all along. 

[August J Gloop]

Rocco does a good job with what actually matters. Making the team believe they can win together. Baseball players are inherently self centered and self motivated. The hard work is getting them to give that up and think of the team as a team. To that end, Rocco is great. He is a person who believes in the whole platoon advantage and how to best put players in spots to succeed. The trouble is that requires players to be comfortable with their weaknesses. That's why he's a good manager. He's not the only good manager the twins could have, but he's a good one. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

Face it. Managers get too much credit when things go well, and too much blame when things go poorly.  There are so many variables (specifically injuries) that the manager has absolutely  no control over.

This. I generally think Rocco is fine as a manager. But I've also felt that baseball managers are frequently overrated for their actual impact on a team. (at least from an in-game, tactical sense) There's a handful that are superior, and a larger handful that aren't very good, but most of them fall into the middle where if their players are good, they look good.

I do think one of the areas a manager has the biggest impact is in the clubhouse, and that's the area that's easily the most difficult for fans to evaluate, at least until things go south and the leaks start a-flying (by then, the deal is usually done, I'd say). Right now, Rocco by all appearances has the support of both the front-office and his players, with good professional relationships. That's a good thing, and it stayed that way even during the prior two disappointing seasons, which is often when the cracks appear.

I'd say he's ranged from average to above-average in his time with the Twins. Moving on from him probably accomplishes little.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Boswell said:

Based on recent experience, I’d take Dusty Baker over Rocco Baldelli… but Rocco Baldelli over John Schneider.  😂

Part of this is Dusty has been managing for 26 seasons. Rocco is learning. He'll get better too.

[Nick Nelson]

He'll likely (and deservingly) be a top 3 finalist for MOTY and has the highest winning % of any Twins manager in 5 decades, I don't even know why this would be considered a controversial premise. 

[4twinsJA]

I am not a great judge of managers but would say Rocco is better than most. The key thing for Rocco with me is that he has player's respect and able to get them to buy into his plans. There is always room to second guess strategy, even the best strategic moves some times do not work out. There is a long list of managers that are considered great that have been fired at least once if not multiple times in their careers.

[Woof Bronzer]

 

20 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He'll likely (and deservingly) be a top 3 finalist for MOTY and has the highest winning % of any Twins manager in 5 decades, I don't even know why this would be considered a controversial premise. 

Winning 87 games in the worst division in league history is award worthy?  Man, Twins fans need to set the bar just a shade higher.  I get that this year was better than the last 2 but my goodness, we were the 7th best team in the AL!  We don't need to crown Rocco for this "accomplishment".  

[SwainZag]

7 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 

Winning 87 games in the worst division in league history is award worthy?  Man, Twins fans need to set the bar just a shade higher.  I get that this year was better than the last 2 but my goodness, we were the 7th best team in the AL!  We don't need to crown Rocco for this "accomplishment".  

So might as well just give it to Dave Roberts because the Dodgers won 104 games?  

[LastOnePicked]

There's a lot of good to say about Baldelli. I'm still left wondering why his teams don't perform in the strongest spotlights, though. Closers have had trouble here. Division leads have often been lost midseason or late season. Twins have often folded in the playoffs under his leadership, despite this year's nice mini-run through the Wild Card series. 

I mean, I agree with the points made in his favor, but they just can't get over the hump. I did not expect a WS this year, but not getting to Pablo and Game 5 just smacks of all the same old story for this club. They can't make a win happen in crucial situations. Is that managing? Is it roster? Is it something intangible? It's just hard to say.

After the WC series win, Baldelli told the crowd that his team had "a lot more to show." They didn't. Was that overconfidence, or just a misread of the Astros strengths/Twins weaknesses?

Oh well. Welcome back, Rocco. Let's see what 2024 brings.

[Dave Borton]

Quote

@Hans BirkelandWhat if Rocco Baldelli is Actually a Good Manager?

Excellent article, well researched, clearly written, though I don't come to the same conclusion.

From where does the criticism of Baldelli come? Many of us grew up on a different brand of baseball. "Baldelli" becomes a symbol of what we resent in the changed game. He is bound to catch flack (not Fleck). I am part of that herd.

Baldelli is following the script set by the FO. Neither of us truly knows how much latitude he has in going in a different direction anymore than we know his true impact within the clubhouse. He is penned in to a style of baseball which dictates his decisions. His personality lends to that role.

Is he a good manager? I think we need to remember that 52 of his games (32%) are played within a division where not one team (save Twins) had a .500 record. Talk about stacking the deck for statistical composition.

I think he is a good person for this FO. How responsible he is for the stats you listed is another issue.

I don't know if he is a good manager. I know he and his (their) brand of baseball doesn't appeal to me. After all, this is entertainment, not the chess game it has become.

What I do know? The Twins finished 87-75 in the worst division of baseball, with a disproportionate amount of those games against losing teams.

Thanks for taking the time to present such a thoroughly researched article. db

[Boswell]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Part of this is Dusty has been managing for 26 seasons. Rocco is learning. He'll get better too.

Was reading about the 20th Anniversary of the “Bartman game” (NLCS, Game 6 - Oct. 14, 2023) on the Athletic.  
 

Reprehensible that Baker, Alou, Prior et. al. threw a fan under the bus.  Became the whole story rather than taking responsibility for the many mistakes and faults of the Cubs.  
 

Baker could have made a trip to the mound to calm down his pitcher and catcher, or he could have gone to the bullpen rather than ride Prior.  He didn’t. 
 

He could have taken responsibility.. or at least been philosophical. 
 

Instead, shame, blame and destroy the guy with the turtleneck, sweatshirt, glasses and headphones. 
 

Yeah, maybe give me Rocco anyway.  6 hits and 28 strikeouts in 2 games at home is on the players.  

[Schmoeman5]

If Twins mgmt thinks Baldelli is a good manager. They should extend his contract and give him a raise. Wait! Didn't they all ready do that? The FO thinks he's good. That's good enough for me.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Boswell said:

Based on recent experience, I’d take Dusty Baker over Rocco Baldelli… but Rocco Baldelli over John Schneider.  😂

Ancient history  What has Dusty accomplished lately?

[Hans Birkeland]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 

Winning 87 games in the worst division in league history is award worthy?  Man, Twins fans need to set the bar just a shade higher.  I get that this year was better than the last 2 but my goodness, we were the 7th best team in the AL!  We don't need to crown Rocco for this "accomplishment".  

Second best team in the second half, third best by playoff results. Its not how you start its how you finish.

[gil4]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Ancient history  What has Dusty accomplished lately?

After a two game losing streak?  Tough crowd.  We'd change managers almost as often as we change socks if that was the standard.  

 

[CRF]

1 hour ago, davidborton said:

Excellent article, well researched, clearly written, though I don't come to the same conclusion.

From where does the criticism of Baldelli come? Many of us grew up on a different brand of baseball. "Baldelli" becomes a symbol of what we resent in the changed game. He is bound to catch flack (not Fleck). I am part of that herd.

Baldelli is following the script set by the FO. Neither of us truly knows how much latitude he has in going in a different direction anymore than we know his true impact within the clubhouse. He is penned in to a style of baseball which dictates his decisions. His personality lends to that role.

Is he a good manager? I think we need to remember that 52 of his games (32%) are played within a division where not one team (save Twins) had a .500 record. Talk about stacking the deck for statistical composition.

I think he is a good person for this FO. How responsible he is for the stats you listed is another issue.

I don't know if he is a good manager. I know he and his (their) brand of baseball doesn't appeal to me. After all, this is entertainment, not the chess game it has become.

What I do know? The Twins finished 87-75 in the worst division of baseball, with a disproportionate amount of those games against losing teams.

Thanks for taking the time to present such a thoroughly researched article. db

Absolutely perfect answer to the article, and I agree 100%. You stated it better than I ever could. 

[Fat Calvin]

What if he isn't?

[Old Twins Hat]

Most of managing baseball in MLB is about how you handle relationships -- with everyone, the players of course, but your staff, the FO, myriad professionals covering/involved with the team.

Baldelli is a very good communicator.  He is calm, measured, fair and insightful,.  This all comes across in his interviews and interactions with the media, and secondarily, through listening to the players and others associated with the team.

Is he a good manager?  Well, if the job is mainly about handling relationships, the answer is "yes". 

The in-game strategies, the line-ups, the decisions about pitchers coming in -- hate to say it, but that stuff is really secondary to how he shows up for all the other "stuff" he is responsible for.

This is not a Billy Martin job anymore, coaching baseball.  You can't just cuss and throw things around and bitch and expect that your team will respond. 

I have been impressed by how Baldelli handles all questions, gets to the guts of the issue and doesn't duck or obfuscate or blame others.

[DocBauer]

I got a lot of bad feedback a year or so ago when I commented that Rocco was still "learning on the job" to a degree. But by his own admission...a former top prospect and top baseball ML talent...all he had to to in 2019 was fill out a roster card and sit down. Obviously he was joking a bit.

His players love him. He's produced winning teams, even if the ultimate prize hasn't come yet. And he's growing as a manager. I'm sick and tired of the IP by SP mantra! Just look at the facts of who you had and what was vs what you have now! Just RIDICULOUS to continue to debate the SP of '22 vs '23. The Twins rotation was amongst the leaders in all of MLB in IP and SO. Why? Better talent...better health didn't hurt. 

Rocco also employed more SB and bunts in crucial situations than before. Why? Because he had more speed to work with and had guys, or realized, he had better bunters on hand. Or maybe he realized he needed to create more after a rough offensive 1st half.

Rocco has a higher win % than Kelly did. But Kelly is a deserved legend. But eras are different. And to me. It's OK that Rocco has the respect if the team and is growing as a manager. I mean, what was he supposed to do, win multiple AAA championships and THEN become a ML championship?

I DON'T think Rocco is a GREAT manager. I think there are very few who were/are. I think Francona was one. Joe Torre might be one as well, but wasn't he dismissed a time or two? 

I LIKE how Rocco handles this team. I BLOW OFF any arguements about passion because of what his players feel about him and because off the records comments by reporters state a different kind of curse word, regular sort of guy the public doesn't always see.

What I DON'T like is a manager who gives in too frequently to the PH option too early in to games. The Twins PH early in 2023 was ABYSMAL. But was that Rocco or the players? They were much better the 2nd half. But I'd like him to be more hesitant early in games.

I'd also like him and his staff to drill more on fundamentals. The defense, IMO, improved this year. But simple plays and base running errors need to improve. And when you throw in a collection of rookies, no matter how talented, you need to round off the rough edges. 

And PARAMOUNT, you need to SHAPE your hitter approach, with your coaches, for your batters to succeed. Honestly, I think the Twins hitting approach is almost TOO GOOD to succeed. The old "choke up" isn't right any longer. And Popkins seems to have Twins batters almost trusting too much in the strike zone. And not everyone is a Julien when it comes to patience. (And even he gets screwed as a rookie) Maybe the new discipline is WHATEVER Popkins and the other coaches did with Kepler is what they should do with most if the lineup.

Even as a fan of Kepler from day one I NEVER  saw him suddenly finding a new approach at 30yo. I apologized for his youth and too early promotion, like Polonco. And suddenly we are looking at both being as good or better than expected. 

I'm starting to believe in Rocco as a manager growing in to his role, and enjoying doing so. I'm also starting to believe more in his staff. 

Time will tell if we have a good manager or a great manager.  Though I'm not sure exactly where the finish line is.

 

 

[Bodie]

I'll never respect Rocco as he is either a) utterly ignorant, or b) a flat-out liar.

EVERY time a player leaves a game, the post-game press conference includes a "not as bad as it looks", or a "probably a day-to-day thing" report on the injured player before the next day's "official" report of said player needing major surgery and a 60 day DL stint.

I realize he isn't a doctor or even a trainer,  but adding this to his history of baffling moves (esp. pitching, and weekly days off for position players beyond travel days) and strict analytical adherence, I see nothing to recommend him at all as a manager.

He'd likely make a good babysitter.  Assuming your child is bulletproof...

[Karbo]

Managers have to manage the players the front office gives them. This year they gave Rocco a good, not great, team that was deep. Last year they didn't give him as deep of a team and paid dearly when they had so many injuries. It seems Rocco is learning and improving. My biggest concern is what seems to be a lack of focus on fundamentals. Maybe they do in the spring, but it doesn't carry over into the regular season. That said, things did look slightly a lot better this season. Or is that because everything looks better when they win?

[TWTwinsFan]

No, he is not.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’ll just say Rocco is the fourth best manager in that Tweet you posted

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

2 hours ago, Bodie said:

I'll never respect Rocco as he is either a) utterly ignorant, or b) a flat-out liar.

EVERY time a player leaves a game, the post-game press conference includes a "not as bad as it looks", or a "probably a day-to-day thing" report on the injured player before the next day's "official" report of said player needing major surgery and a 60 day DL stint.

I realize he isn't a doctor or even a trainer,  but adding this to his history of baffling moves (esp. pitching, and weekly days off for position players beyond travel days) and strict analytical adherence, I see nothing to recommend him at all as a manager.

He'd likely make a good babysitter.  Assuming your child is bulletproof...

Literally every manager and front office leader does this. It isn't just a Rocco thing. 

Edit: I want to give a more nuanced answer. You're exaggerating how bad it is. Of course he's going to be optimistic or guarded with revealing too much at the beginning, because they don't have all the facts right away.

Anyway, this was the exact same complaint we had about Terry Ryan and Bill Smith. I still remember Joe Crede staying on the active roster as "day-to-day" while resting his back soreness for roughly a week before he was put on the IL. Acting like this is a Baldelli problem is misguided. 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Andrew Bryz-Gornia
Added more detail (hit send early because I had to change a newborn's diaper)