Who do the Twins Keep Through Arbitration?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins finished out their 2023 regular season on Wednesday night. Although it didn’t end the way they had hoped, the season was nothing short of a resounding success. Looking toward 2024, it’s now worth wondering which players will be back.

 

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie.

Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return.

Here is how I see the group shaking out:

Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli.

At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense.

Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list.

The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers.

Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M)
When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back.

At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate.

Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k)
We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally.

This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him.

Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal.

What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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[tony&rodney]

The decisions on Farmer (especially) and Gordon are somewhat dependent on if the Twins plan to be aggressive in the trade market. Of course, there would need to be some conversations with teams in the next few weeks. The Twins have until November 17. Perhaps there are a few moves before that deadline. 

[old nurse]

If a 106 OPS+ is considered your most valuable position player perhaps the real MVPs are on the pitching staff. MVP arguments are probably another thread

The players brought in as waiver claims will likely not get offered arbitration but will get minor league deals. The preliminary discussions on contracts will determine if they keep Farmer, Thielbar, Alcal,, Castro and Gordon. Thielbar should get a slight raise, 3 years of effective pitching, one injury year. The playoff meltdown dampens his value. On the other hand, there is no in house replacement. Alcala is likely back. He still has a future, he still is cheap.. Castro, Gordon are kind of in the same boat. Can a minor league player do what they have done.? Career year players like Castro get tricky. Did they finally figure it out? Will there be regression. If Castro’s agent aims too high, he will likely be gone. That leaves Farmer. More expensive than Castro but consistent. Replaced by what player at what cost?

[2wins87]

I think Gordon and Alcala might be a tier too low.

Castro makes Gordon a bit superfluous but I think the FO probably still believes in him. I don't think they'll see it as an easy decision. Definitely depends on who they think they can bring in from outside the organization.

I think the FO probably still believes  in Alcala too, but maybe more important, there is plenty of space in the back end of the bullpen right now. They will be trying to fill it with a few guys with upside potential. I'm not sure they will be able to easily find many other guys with the same upside as Alcala.

[The Mad King]

I'd pass on Castro for 3.6 - I'd rather have Gordon at 1. 

I'd take Alcala at 1. I really don't expect to see him hit 100mph again but 1 million is chump change in today's baseball. 

Everything else I'd agree with Ted on. 

Didn't they send the AAA catcher to AFL? I'd wait to see how he does before deciding on Vasquez. Vasquez's experience may be more valuable than numbers reflect, but if the kid has a breakout like Lewis and Julian have in AFL ...

[HrbieFan]

Farmer should be good trade bait for a team in need of a reliable SS/3B and IF depth. I'm keeping Castro and trying to get him to shave some money with a 2 year $6m deal. Acala is the only other one I'm even considering.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Difficult decisions to be made. I have confidence this FO will make the correct decisions. I hate to see any of these players go, but it is as inevitable as death and taxes. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

87 wins and a fairly expeditious exit from the ALDS should be no one’s idea of a resoundingly successful season, that set new heights of achievement.

[Whitey333]

Tough decisions this off season. The FO makes me nervous.  They had some plusses in their roster development but also a lot of minuses.  I'd like to see the Twins improve on the decent but not great season they just had.  Improving the Team would show some commitment to the fans.  However a bad 2024 in what looks like another bad year for the central division would be a big blow to the organization.  Here's hoping for a great Twins off season in 2024.

[2-6CS]

When are contracts tendered to arb eligible players? I'm just wondering if most of the unlikely guys are 40 man roster casualties more than anything.  For example, I think nick Gordon is left in the cold cuz he's out of options...he has to break camp on the 26 man. For that reason I'm thinking he will end up being booted from the 40 man at some point in the off-season.  

[jorgenswest]

Gordon’s cost is low enough to tender an offer. I also believe the Gordon of 2022 is the one they would be giving up. His BABiP was unsustainably low in the 100s in his small sample last year. It had been 300s previously.

It is possible that Julien is the 1B and they get an offer they like for Polanco. That would open 2B and utility roles for Castro, Gordon, Farmer, Martin, Prato and Lee. A platoon of Gordon and Farmer or Martin could start the year until Lee eventually takes the job.

Keeping this possibility open is worth the small cost.

[saviking]

I'd give the nod to Castro over Gordon bit Gordon has too value to just let walk

..

[JD-TWINS]

40 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

87 wins and a fairly expeditious exit from the ALDS should be no one’s idea of a resoundingly successful season, that set new heights of achievement.

They lost 3-2 in the 4th of a five game series to the defending champions. “expeditious”?

That said, I like Thielbar & Castro & Farmer all back for what they would save on releasing Polanco. Gordon is a good Spring Training guy & then trade if he isn’t going to make our roster (no options left). He should get a chance to compete for CF next spring. Don’t see him beating out Castro but they may carry both…….particularly if Farmer &/or Polanco are gone.

[stringer bell]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Gordon’s cost is low enough to tender an offer. I also believe the Gordon of 2022 is the one they would be giving up. His BABiP was unsustainably low in the 100s in his small sample last year. It had been 300s previously.

It is possible that Julien is the 1B and they get an offer they like for Polanco. That would open 2B and utility roles for Castro, Gordon, Farmer, Martin, Prato and Lee. A platoon of Gordon and Farmer or Martin could start the year until Lee eventually takes the job.

Keeping this possibility open is worth the small cost.

I think Lee is far more likely to be a 3B. Perhaps Lewis would move to second, but that is only if Polanco and Julien are not in the picture there. Julien at 1B makes sense given the uncertainty and injury history of Kirilloff. I think Miranda might be in line to take the role that Solano had last year and that really limits Farmer’s role. A similar trade to the Urshela deal might be in the offing. 
 

Willi Castro was a premium utility guy last year and I hope he gets consideration for a Gold Glove. That he is younger than Gordon increases his value IMHO. A Gordon trade or non-tender is more than possible. Willi might end up with a multi-year contract. 

[yeahyabetcha]

48 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Gordon’s cost is low enough to tender an offer. I also believe the Gordon of 2022 is the one they would be giving up. His BABiP was unsustainably low in the 100s in his small sample last year. It had been 300s previously.

It is possible that Julien is the 1B and they get an offer they like for Polanco. That would open 2B and utility roles for Castro, Gordon, Farmer, Martin, Prato and Lee. A platoon of Gordon and Farmer or Martin could start the year until Lee eventually takes the job.

Keeping this possibility open is worth the small cost.

I think Polanco and his 10.5 million contract as the opening day 2nd baseman is a way better option than any of the others you listed.  
 

Castro and Farmer are great bench players.

Martin, Prato and Lee will find their way to majors when it is time.

Gordon is a non tender candidate as he has no spot on the 26 and is out of options.

[FlyingFinn]

Castro is guaranteed. Alcala is likely for only $1 million. The Twins plans for Lewis (do they want to move him to CF) and the results of Kirilloffs surgery really help decide how much we need Farmer at 3B or 1B. Plus he's our best backup SS (but add Lee as a 3rd decision that affects Farmer - do the Twins plan to start Lee immediately with the Twins and try for that extra #1 draft pick?).

[arby58]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I think Gordon and Alcala might be a tier too low.

Castro makes Gordon a bit superfluous but I think the FO probably still believes in him. I don't think they'll see it as an easy decision. Definitely depends on who they think they can bring in from outside the organization.

Gordon is on the 60-day IL so not currently counting against the 40 man roster, but if, say, Lee is ready, he needs a spot. If you keep Farmer and Solano returns - along with Lewis, Julien, Polanco, and Correa, it's hard to understand why you would need more than one utility player, as most can play multiple positions. Gordon had a horrible start to the season, and if I'm thinking 'redemption tour' for the Twins, I'd look first at Miranda, who has some power, is two years younger, and could be a platoon option at first base.

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Gordon is on the 60-day IL so not currently counting against the 40 man roster, but if, say, Lee is ready, he needs a spot. If you keep Farmer and Solano returns - along with Lewis, Julien, Polanco, and Correa, it's hard to understand why you would need more than one utility player, as most can play multiple positions. Gordon had a horrible start to the season, and if I'm thinking 'redemption tour' for the Twins, I'd look first at Miranda, who has some power, is two years younger, and could be a platoon option at first base.

40-man issues are nonexistent right now with the Twins having about ten free agents. Lee won’t be added until he is promoted to the majors (the start of the 2024 major league season at the earliest). 

[2wins87]

30 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Gordon is on the 60-day IL so not currently counting against the 40 man roster, but if, say, Lee is ready, he needs a spot. If you keep Farmer and Solano returns - along with Lewis, Julien, Polanco, and Correa, it's hard to understand why you would need more than one utility player, as most can play multiple positions. Gordon had a horrible start to the season, and if I'm thinking 'redemption tour' for the Twins, I'd look first at Miranda, who has some power, is two years younger, and could be a platoon option at first base.

There is no 60 day IL in the offseason so he will count against the 40-man, but Lee doesn't need to be added this year. It could be a consideration to call up Lee next year but the arbitration/non-tender decision comes before that.

They could still tender his contract and trade or DFA him later in the offseason. I think at around $1 mil, they might still want to bet that the .780 OPS in the second half of last year was real. There would likely be a few teams that would be willing to swing a minor trade at that price for a utility guy.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

IMO, Farmer and Luplow are probably the only ones really at risk here.

I do not want to see Gordon back, but the price is low.  DeLeon and Alcala are both cheap and young... can never have too much pitching depth.  Others have earned another look (along with their cost being relatively low as well).

 

[DocBauer]

Yes to Thielbar and Castro. 

And almost as solid of a yes to Farmer and Alcala. I kept hearing how Farmer was going to be around $8M in arbitration this upcoming offseason. Never saw he and Polanco both back at that price. But $6-6.5M? It would be hard to say no to that for 1yr with his presence in the clubhouse, quality defense wherever you put him, and an OK bat

Alcala is 28yo and time is running out. But I'd bet if he's let go tomorrow, he'd be snapped up immediately by someone who wants to see that high 90's velocity and what they can do with his arm. For $1M, it should be the Twins who get that opportunity. 

I think Gordon was a good story when he finally made it and is angood and well liked teammate. But I'm not sure there is room for him any longer, and he has no options. I'm going to be a little surprised if he's kept.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see any reason to keep Gordon at this point. Castro is better. I think Farmer is a hard choice, not sure what they'll do. Alcala? I have serious doubts, but I bet they try one more year. Thielbar is back for sure

[2-6CS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Gordon is on the 60-day IL so not currently counting against the 40 man roster, but if, say, Lee is ready, he needs a spot. If you keep Farmer and Solano returns - along with Lewis, Julien, Polanco, and Correa, it's hard to understand why you would need more than one utility player, as most can play multiple positions. Gordon had a horrible start to the season, and if I'm thinking 'redemption tour' for the Twins, I'd look first at Miranda, who has some power, is two years younger, and could be a platoon option at first base.

They can't keep him on the 60-day all off-season he will have to take up a spot on the 40 man before the rule 5 draft.

No need to rush Lee to the 40 man, he will be on it at some point next season but it won't happen before then.

[2-6CS]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

40-man issues are nonexistent right now with the Twins having about ten free agents. Lee won’t be added until he is promoted to the majors (the start of the 2024 major league season at the earliest). 

Except twins had 47 or so players on the 40 man counting the 60-day guys.  Then they will need to add guys to protect against rule 5 draft....it seems to be a pretty light year in that depth for the Twins but regardless they will be right up against the 40 man at some point this off-season

[Dman]

I really like what Castro brings to the team.  Solid defense where ever he plays and a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate.  He also can steal bases.  They need to bring him back IMO.  Thielbar looks like he might finally be slowing down, but we don't really have anyone better and he is a much needed lefty so he will be back.

I go back and forth on Alcala and Gordon.  They have shown flashes but have been far from consistent to this point.  I hate giving up on guys but I don't know what the Twins will do.  I tend to agree with @2wins87 the FO likely wants to give those two one more shot, but hard to say for sure.

I think Farmer has more trade value than most years.  The FA market is light on SS talent this year.  Any team looking for help there might pony up more than normal for Farmer.  With Castro, and Lewis able to sub for Correa at short they could move on from Farmer if the price is right.  The timeline for Lee is unknown but odds are he could be a mid year option and he can play short as well.  If they are keeping Polanco it feels like someone has to go and Farmer seems the most likely to me.  Still if the trade offers are poor maybe they just hang onto him until the deadline next year as he is an important piece especially if injuries occur.  

As always it will be interesting to see what the Twins ultimately do.

[stringer bell]

41 minutes ago, 2-6CS said:

Except twins had 47 or so players on the 40 man counting the 60-day guys.  Then they will need to add guys to protect against rule 5 draft....it seems to be a pretty light year in that depth for the Twins but regardless they will be right up against the 40 man at some point this off-season

I count ten of the roster for free agency/release, bringing the number to 37. A reduction of a couple more by non-tender is certainly possible coupled with adding players to the 40-man to protect from the Rule V draft. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

They lost 3-2 in the 4th of a five game series to the defending champions. “expeditious”?

That said, I like Thielbar & Castro & Farmer all back for what they would save on releasing Polanco. Gordon is a good Spring Training guy & then trade if he isn’t going to make our roster (no options left). He should get a chance to compete for CF next spring. Don’t see him beating out Castro but they may carry both…….particularly if Farmer &/or Polanco are gone.

In the last 2 games, the Twins held a lead to start one half inning, they were tied to start 4 half innings, and trailed for the start of 31 half innings.  In that game 4 you seem to think was so close, they had 3 hits, 2 walks, and 14 strikeouts.  Houston was barely challenged during the ALDS, and thinking otherwise is rose colored vision.

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

In the last 2 games, the Twins held a lead to start one half inning, they were tied to start 4 half innings, and trailed for the start of 31 half innings.  In that game 4 you seem to think was so close, they had 3 hits, 2 walks, and 14 strikeouts.  Houston was barely challenged during the ALDS, and thinking otherwise is rose colored vision.

Yeah and there is a huge gulf between Texas and Baltimore, Philly and Atlanta and Arizona and the Dodgers. The other series show what a crapshoot postseason is. I do think some factors stand out—starting pitchers and power—but really having a healthy roster might be the biggest factor after making the postseason. The Twins need to address their flaws (lack of contact, not enough reliable hitters), but they are fairly well-positioned to compete in October next year and beyond. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't see any reason to keep Gordon at this point. Castro is better. I think Farmer is a hard choice, not sure what they'll do. Alcala? I have serious doubts, but I bet they try one more year. Thielbar is back for sure

Possible reasons for Gordon…

His wRC+ on 2022 was 111 which would have ranked ninth on the team this year. As bad as his .179 BABIP season was this year his xBA and xSLG were both better than Castro’s. His strikeout rate was a very low 11.8% and probably the only number that stabilized in his sample this year.

If the argument is that his 2022 performance isn’t good enough to make the team or even be taken to spring training then I look forward to next year’s roster. 

[karcherd]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

IMO, Farmer and Luplow are probably the only ones really at risk here.

I do not want to see Gordon back, but the price is low.  DeLeon and Alcala are both cheap and young... can never have too much pitching depth.  Others have earned another look (along with their cost being relatively low as well).

 

I am not sure I would count DeLeon as young as he will turn 32 next year and really hasn't done much in his career.  Will it happen, maybe but it hasn't happened yet.