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Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie.
Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return.
Here is how I see the group shaking out:
Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli.
At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense.
Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list.
The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers.
Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M)
When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back.
At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate.
Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k)
We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally.
This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him.
Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal.
What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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