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Posted

The Minnesota Twins have looked for offense from a handful of different places this season, and often it has come from the youngsters in their lineup. As they fell flat against the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS, it was the youth that cost them most.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli’s club should’ve felt a good deal of comfort going into Game 3. The Houston Astros were starting righty Cristian Javier, and despite him being incredible during the 2022 World Series run, he had been nothing close to that this season. Rather than piling on behind Sonny Gray, the offense was nowhere to be seen.

Even before Javier continued to throw up zero after zero, it was Alex Kirilloff making one of the worst plays of his young career. Having debuted against the Astros during the 2020 postseason when Josh Donaldson couldn’t go for the Twins, it felt like this might be a spot where he got things going. Instead, starting at first base, he recorded an error that led to four first inning runs. With Yordan Alvarez stepping into the batter’s box, Kirilloff missed a routine double-play ball that had just a .070 expected batting average. Houston’s slugger pushed Jose Altuve to third base on the play, and Kyle Tucker drove in the first run during the very next at bat. Gray then served up a meatball to former White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, and before the Twins even stepped up to the plate, they were down 4-0.

Kirilloff’s gaffe was the epitome of any number of miscues Minnesota fans have grown far too accustomed to seeing. Like a Gary Anderson or Blair Walsh missed kick, this one was entirely on the player failing to execute. Phil Cuzzi wasn’t there to incorrectly impact Joe Mauer, and neither D.J. Reyburn or Brian Knight were behind the dish to screw things up. Kirilloff just came up empty, in one of the biggest games of his career.

Unfortunately for the Twins young first baseman, the defensive issue wasn’t the only one. He’s been non-existent at the plate all series as well. After posting a .793 OPS this season, good for a 117 OPS+, he has gone 0-for-9 with four strikeouts in five starts this postseason. He’s not a traditional slugger, but as a guy who has game power that can run into a pitch, he’s been nothing close to valuable at the plate.

Minnesota would likely be struggling if their primary first baseman wasn’t producing, but it isn’t just Kirilloff, and that makes things worse. Matt Wallner, playing in the postseason in front of his hometown fans, has been in the same boat.

Despite slumping during part of the second half, it seemed the Forest Lake native had figured things out. He had continued to take walks, and then found a way to drive the baseball again. Although he is still trotting 90-feet to first base, the rest of his production has been completely non-existent. Going 0-for-8, Wallner has also struck out in five of those at bats. Not only is he showing an inability to drive the baseball and do damage, but he has looked overmatched at the plate.

Maybe the moment has become too big for some of Minnesota’s youth. That is something that could be said for the first at bat from Royce Lewis during Game 3. After chasing three pitches out of the zone, he squandered an opportunity to add, and it was an expansion of the zone we haven’t seen from a guy who has consistently done damage. Lewis missed during the latest game, but has come through the rest of the postseason. Edouard Julien is in a similar boat, and we’ll see how Joe Ryan can show up soon. Either way, youth propping up a roster has benefits until familiarity comes into play.

Maybe Baldelli needs to turn starts over to Donovan Solano and Willi Castro on Wednesday, but the reality is that it’s unfortunate Minnesota hasn’t gotten more from Kirilloff and Wallner. Maybe their moment is yet to come, and that could be necessary if they want to advance. No matter what, even if it’s a lot to ask, the team needs more from a pair that is still wet behind the ears.

Houston isn’t going to be beat by the Twins getting nothing from corner spots, and the combination of starters against right-handed pitching have now begged the question as to whether they are up to the task.


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Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

ARod's insightful deep-dive closing comment about Kirilloff's error: "you can not let that ball past by you."  Alrighty then.

I think the point would be to get yourself in front of that, rather than stand flat-footed and stick your glove out. I believe he had time.

Posted
15 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think the point would be to get yourself in front of that, rather than stand flat-footed and stick your glove out. I believe he had time.

Oh, for sure.  And in that clip A-Rod tried to demonstrate (as a righty, which changes it somewhat) what good technique would be - I can't judge.  He also gave Alex some cover, that maybe he couldn't see the ball.

But then A-Rod has an annoying ability to say something trite (his closing comment) as though it is profound. It just hit me a certain way this time.

Posted
12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think the point would be to get yourself in front of that, rather than stand flat-footed and stick your glove out. I believe he had time.

2nd hop hit the chalk line & appeared to die - not the hop that was expected. Should have knocked down & gotten at least one out but when the ball stays down on an easy glove play you are toast as a fielder.

That said, Gray can’t get the ball in off the plate enough on an 0-2 count & it gets drilled. And then he hangs a slider middle-middle for a dinger.

I get the defense can’t give extra outs, but the pitching before the ball was hit down the line and then when the ball landed in LF seats was really sub-par!! Disappointing!!!

Posted

Two options... 

Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. 

Reason #8942 why I hate the playoffs... everything gets overanalyzed and blown way out of proportion. A two-game slump... and its the end of the world. 

Of note - Solano pinch-hit for Kirilloff with a right-hander on the mound. That's probably a sign of things to come tomorrow, maybe. Wallner didn't and worked two really good plate appearances. 

I hope not. Go with the guys that got you there. Stick to the platooning, and go from there. Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien... all a big part of the Twins future, and that's a good thing. Stand by them. Or don't, that's the purpose of having all this depth. Try to live another day and get to a Verlander-Lopez game 5... that's the goal at this point. 

But against Urquidy, do you want them to go with Solano at 1st, Farmer at 3rd, Castro in LF with Taylor in CF. Could have Vazquez catch, and let Jeffers DH?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Two options... 

Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. 

Reason #8942 why I hate the playoffs... everything gets overanalyzed and blown way out of proportion. A two-game slump... and its the end of the world. 

Of note - Solano pinch-hit for Kirilloff with a right-hander on the mound. That's probably a sign of things to come tomorrow, maybe. Wallner didn't and worked two really good plate appearances. 

I hope not. Go with the guys that got you there. Stick to the platooning, and go from there. Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien... all a big part of the Twins future, and that's a good thing. Stand by them. Or don't, that's the purpose of having all this depth. Try to live another day and get to a Verlander-Lopez game 5... that's the goal at this point. 

But against Urquidy, do you want them to go with Solano at 1st, Farmer at 3rd, Castro in LF with Taylor in CF. Could have Vazquez catch, and let Jeffers DH?

So you have Lewis sitting?

Posted
8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

2nd hop hit the chalk line & appeared to die - not the hop that was expected. Should have knocked down & gotten at least one out but when the ball stays down on an easy glove play you are toast as a fielder.

That said, Gray can’t get the ball in off the plate enough on an 0-2 count & it gets drilled. And then he hangs a slider middle-middle for a dinger.

I get the defense can’t give extra outs, but the pitching before the ball was hit down the line and then when the ball landed in LF seats was really sub-par!! Disappointing!!!

Not only did the ball stay down, but it was bounding back and forth like it was moving with some english. Definitely NOT a 'routine' double play. Yes, knock it down, try to get the one out... but WAY too much being made of that one play. 

Gray relies on spin, and movement because of the spin... Today, there was some spin, but very little movement... That's why the shadows didn't effect their hitters like they did the Twins hitters who were trying to hit balls that not only spun, but dropped and darted. With no spin on pitches they were looking for... and they did a nice job of sticking to a game plan. 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Two options... 

Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. 

Reason #8942 why I hate the playoffs... everything gets overanalyzed and blown way out of proportion. A two-game slump... and its the end of the world. 

Of note - Solano pinch-hit for Kirilloff with a right-hander on the mound. That's probably a sign of things to come tomorrow, maybe. Wallner didn't and worked two really good plate appearances. 

I hope not. Go with the guys that got you there. Stick to the platooning, and go from there. Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien... all a big part of the Twins future, and that's a good thing. Stand by them. Or don't, that's the purpose of having all this depth. Try to live another day and get to a Verlander-Lopez game 5... that's the goal at this point. 

But against Urquidy, do you want them to go with Solano at 1st, Farmer at 3rd, Castro in LF with Taylor in CF. Could have Vazquez catch, and let Jeffers DH?

IMHO, the platooning can be debated...the defense cannot. Although we cannot play the 'what if' game effectively, the first inning looks far different with one on and two outs vs, two on and one out...

Posted

I assume Lewis is still feeling his hamstring injury, and it was interfering with his concentration during his at bats? Just because it was his first time back in the field today, and you can’t take time doing the little things for it when you are out in the field that maybe he was doing in the dugout between at bats. I don’t know. I didn’t see the game but I wonder if someone might have been watching to see how he was moving? 

Hard for me to believe that Lewis could go from being super clutch a week ago to being a shrinking violet today. 

Posted
40 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Two options... 

Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. 

The framing of this article is insane. Loser mentality breeds losing, I’m just glad the team obviously doesn’t feel this way. 

What does Orioles daily sound like tonight? Not this.

Did we think the Death Star wouldn’t punch back? 

Posted
53 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I assume Lewis is still feeling his hamstring injury, and it was interfering with his concentration during his at bats? Just because it was his first time back in the field today, and you can’t take time doing the little things for it when you are out in the field that maybe he was doing in the dugout between at bats. I don’t know. I didn’t see the game but I wonder if someone might have been watching to see how he was moving? 

Hard for me to believe that Lewis could go from being super clutch a week ago to being a shrinking violet today. 

I'm certain he wasn't thinking about his hamstring when he was batting. His concentration is just fine. 

and players go from clutch to non-clutch to hot to cold all of the time, for like 22-23 weeks in the season. They all want to be hot and clutch at all times, especially in the playoffs, but that's not realistic. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Two options... 

Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. 

Reason #8942 why I hate the playoffs... everything gets overanalyzed and blown way out of proportion. A two-game slump... and its the end of the world. 

Of note - Solano pinch-hit for Kirilloff with a right-hander on the mound. That's probably a sign of things to come tomorrow, maybe. Wallner didn't and worked two really good plate appearances. 

I hope not. Go with the guys that got you there. Stick to the platooning, and go from there. Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien... all a big part of the Twins future, and that's a good thing. Stand by them. Or don't, that's the purpose of having all this depth. Try to live another day and get to a Verlander-Lopez game 5... that's the goal at this point. 

But against Urquidy, do you want them to go with Solano at 1st, Farmer at 3rd, Castro in LF with Taylor in CF. Could have Vazquez catch, and let Jeffers DH?

You hate the playoffs because players get criticized for not performing and/or praised for performing?  Couldn’t you turn that around and say the regular season too large a sample size?  Not predictive as to how a player will perform in a highly stressful playoff environment.  

I mean, this is what they play the regular season for.  This is when playing baseball matters, not some random Tuesday evening in June against the Kansas City Royals in front of 2,500 people.

A 2 game slump?  Collectively going 2 for a million with RISP isn’t a slump.  Striking out in embarrassing fashion every time you step to the plate in that situation isn’t a slump.  We saw them do that all season.  Granted, it’s not just “youth,” (Kirilloff and Wallner), it’s the whole group (except Correa). It’s institutional.

I can’t disagree more with this notion that it’s somehow a role of the dice.  Kirilloff and Wallner just happened to roll craps.

Some people can perform in stressful situations.  Some lock up and get lost in the moment.   There’s a reason you see the same guys perform in these situations year after year.  There’s a reason this franchise lost 18 straight playoff games, at 6 trillion to 1 odds of happening.  It’s not luck if the draw.  There’s not an alternate universe where they don’t “slump” and beat the Astros yesterday based on some extrapolation of regular season, low leverage, statistics.  It’s a team of superior fortitude willing against a lesser.

Also, we’re not talking about Mike Trout having a couple bad playoff games, here.  These are players that have shown significant warts in the regular season, and they’re getting put under a microscope against the best team when it matters.  You don’t get 162 chances.

I guess I’ll just agree to disagree with the sentiment that they have to keep rolling the dice with these guys until they maybe win the lottery.  That lets people off the hook.  That discredits the people can get the job done.  That attitude is what lost us 18 straight playoff game.  I don’t just shrug my shoulders, chalk it up to some higher power randomly rationing luck, and continue the death march. You keep working and searching until you find the right formula to succeed.  If that’s at some kids expense that couldn’t hack it when it mattered, so be it.  This isn’t the YMCA summer league where everyone makes the team and gets a popsicle after, win or lose.  We’re talking about the highest level of professional baseball, here.  People win and lose.  Feelings get hurt. 

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Two options... 

Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. 

Reason #8942 why I hate the playoffs... everything gets overanalyzed and blown way out of proportion. A two-game slump... and its the end of the world. 

Of note - Solano pinch-hit for Kirilloff with a right-hander on the mound. That's probably a sign of things to come tomorrow, maybe. Wallner didn't and worked two really good plate appearances. 

I hope not. Go with the guys that got you there. Stick to the platooning, and go from there. Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien... all a big part of the Twins future, and that's a good thing. Stand by them. Or don't, that's the purpose of having all this depth. Try to live another day and get to a Verlander-Lopez game 5... that's the goal at this point. 

But against Urquidy, do you want them to go with Solano at 1st, Farmer at 3rd, Castro in LF with Taylor in CF. Could have Vazquez catch, and let Jeffers DH?

Go with the rookies that got them this far.

Posted

The Astros have one of the most playoff experienced core group of guys you will likely find out there.  Experience and being around guys who have routinely played in big games matters.  They haven't missed an ALCS since 2016, while this years team doesn't seem as strong, they still have some damn talented players.

For the Twins you have a lot of guys playing in big games in the firs time in their career.  I'm sure the butterflies are there, I am sure some are feeling more pressure than usual, I really think it comes with the territory.  I do think a lot of guys pressed today.  Huge win Sunday, home crowd and they got punched in the mouth out of the gates and never recovered.

Re-group, hope the jitters of the big time game go away and lace up the spikes tomorrow.  You can't teach experience.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Beast said:

You hate the playoffs because players get criticized for not performing and/or praised for performing?  Couldn’t you turn that around and say the regular season too large a sample size?  Not predictive as to how a player will perform in a highly stressful playoff environment.  

I would say the larger the sample, the more accurate it would be in being predictive. There's no way to know that in a 1 or 2 or even 5-game stretch. 

Royce Lewis was immensely clutch in his two games against the Jays. He hasn't been in his past two games against the Astros. What does this mean about his ability to perform in a highly stressful playoff environment? It means something he'll come through and sometimes he won't... just like in any day or week of the regular season. 

I never mean to downplay the playoffs. I get it. That is why they play the regular season and the ultimate goal is the World Series championship. Sonny Gray had one very good playoff start and one not so good. Does that mean he's not clutch? Pablo Lopez was great against the Jays and his Game 2 start vs Houston was legendary... What if there is a Game 5 in Houston on Friday night and he gives up 5 runs in 5 innings? What if he gives up 3 runs in 6 innings and they lose 3-2? Does that alter the narrative?

Finally, was Jack Morris a clutch pitcher in the playoffs? Well, he sure was in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. He lost game 4... and a look back at his playoff starts with the Tigers show he wasn't very good at all most of the time. 

I believe in clutch moments, clutch situations. We all know when somebody comes through in the clutch. 

But I don't believe that anyone can be clutch enough to know with any real certainty what's going to happen, good or bad. I don't believe in the alleged "Clutch Gene." 

What I do believe is that given a decent sample size of plate appearances, if a player is equally successful as his regular season numbers in clutch or high pressure situations, that's really good. 

Who has better playoff offensive numbers? Derek Jeter or A-Rod? Jeter has a few moments that stand out and he was good in the playoffs, but A-Rod was better and people said he couldn't come up big when needed (even though he did). 

Sorry that got long. 

Posted
1 minute ago, SwainZag said:

The Astros have one of the most playoff experienced core group of guys you will likely find out there.  Experience and being around guys who have routinely played in big games matters.  They haven't missed an ALCS since 2016, while this years team doesn't seem as strong, they still have some damn talented players.

For the Twins you have a lot of guys playing in big games in the firs time in their career.  I'm sure the butterflies are there, I am sure some are feeling more pressure than usual, I really think it comes with the territory.  I do think a lot of guys pressed today.  Huge win Sunday, home crowd and they got punched in the mouth out of the gates and never recovered.

Re-group, hope the jitters of the big time game go away and lace up the spikes tomorrow.  You can't teach experience.

I definitely agree with this. Experience does matter. Having been there and done that matters. Doing well or doing poorly sets you up for the next time... That's another reason I believe that they need to go with the young guys and play the game situations as they have throughout the second half. 

Posted

Seth,

Why is it either/or: “over react or go with …”? You have stacked the deck in your analysis. Any change in the line up involving not starting one of the rookies is an “over reaction”? A manager’s job is to put the best combination of players in the line up on any given day. The roster size allows for inter-changeability based on performance, peaking and declining, degrees of injuries (players are always battling some degree of injury), regression, experience, poise, and mojo (to name a few factors). You can certainly say “I prefer that Baldelli starts the same line up because Houston’s pitcher is a righty.” That is fair enough. But, are others who want line up changes irrationally over reacting?

 

Posted

This is a team that's pressing during at bats with runners in scoring position. Errors are going to happen and there were multiple opportunities to make up for it. I'm more worried about Kirolloff's (and most everyone else's) bat that his glove at this point.

Posted
6 hours ago, SwainZag said:

The Astros have one of the most playoff experienced core group of guys you will likely find out there.  Experience and being around guys who have routinely played in big games matters.  They haven't missed an ALCS since 2016, while this years team doesn't seem as strong, they still have some damn talented players.

For the Twins you have a lot of guys playing in big games in the firs time in their career.  I'm sure the butterflies are there, I am sure some are feeling more pressure than usual, I really think it comes with the territory.  I do think a lot of guys pressed today.  Huge win Sunday, home crowd and they got punched in the mouth out of the gates and never recovered.

Re-group, hope the jitters of the big time game go away and lace up the spikes tomorrow.  You can't teach experience.

Very true. This is the post-season and we are playing a very good team with lots of experience and confidence. It ain't gonna be easy. It's not like a series with the Royals Most "experts" are picking the Astros to prevail, but I still think we got a shot. Got to keep focused and confident. 

Posted

What's that saying in sports - something about needing to lose before you can win. Twins' young guys are going through it right now. Thought Correa would be enough to get them across the finish line - and he still might be - but if you Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, Jeffers and Wallner learning on the job in October. Not an easy thing to do.

Posted
2 hours ago, Twinsoholic said:

Seth,

Why is it either/or: “over react or go with …”? You have stacked the deck in your analysis. Any change in the line up involving not starting one of the rookies is an “over reaction”? A manager’s job is to put the best combination of players in the line up on any given day. The roster size allows for inter-changeability based on performance, peaking and declining, degrees of injuries (players are always battling some degree of injury), regression, experience, poise, and mojo (to name a few factors). You can certainly say “I prefer that Baldelli starts the same line up because Houston’s pitcher is a righty.” That is fair enough. But, are others who want line up changes irrationally over reacting?

We already saw Baldelli pinch hit Solano for Kirilloff, and that could carry over to tonight. 

The overreaction isn't so much about potential lineup changes as it is about some of the big statements on if a player is or isn't clutch based on two games, or even five games, etc. 

Posted

The youth got you to the post season, and sadly they have not stepped up in the post season.  Lewis did in first round, but Astros clearly have a plan right now for him, and that is throw outside with pitches moving off the zone. I have not had a chance to watch every at bat, because of work, but we knew if the kids struggled we would be in trouble. 

Still got one more loss this round, hopefully we can rally today put on a good showing and return to Houston Friday. The amount of men left on base has been crazy and the amount of double plays.  Hopefully, the guys can figure out what Houston's plan for them have been and make the adjustments. 

Posted

TWINS rookies are getting some very valuable experience in these playoffs, just enough to realize that they need to play better if they really want to win.

Hope they can send it back to Houston and experience a really big game against a really good team.

As it is, I remember a lot of games this year -- I mean many -- where the offense left runners all over the bases by striking out in huge numbers.  Twins did set a record for Ks this year.  They are playing true to form so far.

Posted

I'm in no hurry to complain or criticize Kirilloff or Walner's performance after the last two games. Springer and Varsho were 0-7 in game 1 of the Wild card round. Do you bench them for game 2? No of course not. The Astro are going to score runs, an extra out don't help, but 5 walks off of Javier and no runs scored is the bigger issue. Much like game 1, a couple of timely hits instead of double plays or K's and it's a completely different game. Sure, Kirilloff and Walner are part of that. Gray and Ober giving up 6 homers in 8.1 innings seems like a bigger issue to me and I wouldn't bench/skip either of them if the Twins make it out of this round.

Go with what got you here. Don't overthink it. ASK Toronto fans how that can work out...

Posted
1 minute ago, weitz41 said:

I'm in no hurry to complain or criticize Kirilloff or Walner's performance after the last two games. Springer and Varsho were 0-7 in game 1 of the Wild card round. Do you bench them for game 2? No of course not. The Astro are going to score runs, an extra out don't help, but 5 walks off of Javier and no runs scored is the bigger issue. Much like game 1, a couple of timely hits instead of double plays or K's and it's a completely different game. Sure, Kirilloff and Walner are part of that. Gray and Ober giving up 6 homers in 8.1 innings seems like a bigger issue to me and I wouldn't bench/skip either of them if the Twins make it out of this round.

Go with what got you here. Don't overthink it. ASK Toronto fans how that can work out...

Very small sample size. They were the reason we got into the playoffs in the first place, and Lewis won us the first game with Julien still being an on-base machine. Krilloff and Wallner could turn it around in the next two games. I wouldn't give up on them.

Posted

The simple truth is the Astros are a much better team than the Twins.  And it shows.  Unfortunately last nights game became an embarrassment and a somewhat closer view of Twins baseball.  The Twi s play in a bad division that doesn't provide much opportunity to grow the team.  Twins continue to strike out at an alarming, almost laughable rate.  The lack of plate discipline and ability or even willingness to adjust during an at bat to the situation has been evident all year.  This team has many holes in it and needs more than a tweak to improve next year or even to maintain the status quo.  Sonny Gray, a big contributer this year, probably pitched his last game as a Twin.  Many others entering free agency.  I'm sure the FO is going to blame everything on the unavailability of Buxton and Gallo, two of the most automatic outs on the team.  Yes the rookies MUST step up.  They look way overmatched.

Posted

Are the Astros truly a much better than the Twins?  Astros are probably more balanced than the Twins but I wouldn't go truly a much better team.  We did win 4 out of 6 in regular season, and now 1-2 in post season.  Playoff experience sure, they have it, Twins don't but we aren't dead in the water yet.  9-1 blowout loss makes it look bad on paper but other games have been quite even.  

Take the week division off narrative off the table.  Astros/Rangers both won 90 games.  Twins won season series over both of them.  AL East considered the strongest of all divisions got blanked in the playoffs 0-7.  Throw records and standings out the window come playoffs and you get hot, you advance.  

Twins need to get hot or at least very warm tonight to move to a game 5.  We will learn a bit more of what we have tonight on the mental makeup of this team.  Score early and pressure eases a bit to add on during the game.

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