Cardinals 7, Twins 3: Ryan Has Another Rough Outing, St. Louis Evens the Series

[Thiéres Rabelo]

For a second consecutive start, Joe Ryan struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark, and the Cardinals scored seven runs on nine hits against him to put the game out of reach early.

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 4.0 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (103 pitches, 66 strikes, 64%)
Home Runs: Matt Wallner (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-.345), Edouard Julien (-.066), Kyle Farmer / Christian Vazquez (-.028)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Ryan gets punished by the long ball early
With two days off since his last time out, Joe Ryan had a full week to regroup after his rough outing against the Mariners, in which he gave up four runs and failed to complete four innings. Rocco Baldelli stood by him after that start. He spoke to Twins Radio before today’s game, saying how he believes Ryan is perfectly capable of relying less on his fastball and a bit more on his secondary offerings.

"I have complete faith in Joe Ryan and the way that he can go out there and miss bats and get outs," Baldelli said before tonight’s game. "He's going to swing upward from where he's at right now. That's the way I feel about it."

Having the support of your manager is essential, but it ultimately isn’t enough by itself. Ryan came to tonight’s game throwing his four-seamer 61% of the time through the first three innings, slightly above his season average of 57.5%. The Cardinals hitters clearly prepared for that, and the outcome couldn’t have been more disastrous for the Twins' talented young starter.

After a long -- but scoreless -- first inning, the St. Louis lineup feasted off Ryan in the following two innings. Joe gave up three home runs in the second, including a two-run rocket to deep center by Lars Nootbaar that gave the Cardinals a comfortable 4-0 lead. With St. Louis’ starter Dakota Hudson having a phenomenal start to this game and mercilessly dominating the Twins’ offense, Ryan was on his own, too.

The third inning wasn’t any easier for Ryan. He gave up a leadoff double to Nolan Arenado and a single to Wilson Contreras next. Then, it was Alec Burleson’s turn to punish his four-seamer, crushing it to the corner right for a three-run shot to make it 7-0 Cardinals. Ryan came back for the fourth and struck out three to end another tough start for him. He managed 12 outs on 103 pitches a week after needing 95 pitches for 11 outs. He has now allowed 37 earned runs in his last nine starts (6.89 ERA) and has thrown four or fewer innings in back-to-back starts for the first time in his big-league career.

The offense gets no-hit through five-plus
As much as Ryan’s outing was painful to watch, trust me, watching the offense tonight was excruciating. Twins hitters couldn’t get Hudson to break out a sweat for most of this game, putting up awful at-bats. The Cardinals starter took a no-hitter into the sixth, and his pitch count didn’t hit 70 until the seventh.

But it was precisely in the seventh that Hudson seemed to start running out of gas. After Édouard Julien struck out on five pitches to lead off the inning, Jorge Polanco had a crucial 11-pitch at-bat -- seemingly the first quality at-bat by a Minnesota hitter all night. Though Polanco struck out, Hudson started to struggle after that at-bat: Max Kepler drew a five-pitch walk, and Kyle Farmer got hit by a pitch next. Then, Matt Wallner stepped up to the plate and smacked a three-run shot to deep center to put Minnesota on the board.

Josh Winder came into the game to eat up innings after Ryan’s shortened inning, and he was brilliant for three innings -- his fifth multi-inning outing this season --, keeping alive Minnesota’s slight chances for a comeback. Following Wallner’s home run in the seventh, hopes went up again for the Twins when Joey Gallo led off the eighth with a single. But those hopes were short-lived, as Michael A. Taylor grounded into a force out and Julien grounded into an inning-ending double play later one, Minnesota’s third of the night.

Caleb Thielbar made his first big-league appearance since early June by tossing a scoreless eighth and lowering his season ERA now to 1.59. Then, Donovan Solano hit a one-out single in the ninth, with Farmer and Wallner set to hit after him. Hopes for a rally were reignited for a second, but both of them struck out to end it.

Postgame interview

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Winder	40	0	0	0	36	76
Jax	0	22	0	14	0	36
Balazovic	33	0	0	0	0	33
Pagán	0	6	0	16	0	22
Durán	0	0	0	14	0	14
Morán	11	0	0	0	0	11
Floro	0	11	0	0	0	11
Thielbar	0	0	0	0	11	11

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[BH67]

Four homers allowed in two innings. A contrarian interpretation of baseball's Ryan Express.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan has a tired arm and just needs to be skipped for one (next) start. Dallas Keuchel (or Josh Winder) can get his shot.

[D.C Twins]

Wait..... Is that the hubcap to OUR CAR that just rolled by?!?!

[mikelink45]

We have been watching Joe Ryan struggle for the last few games. I agree that he should be given a skip his next round and see if he can't get himself together. Is it too many? Has the league figured him out? Something has to change 

[D.C Twins]

      Image of the central division 'race'

[Beast]

We might have jumped the gun on proclaiming Joe Ryan a really good pitcher.

Dude’s going to have a 5 ERA soon.

[Rik19753]

Good thing we have Wallner, Julien, Kirilloff and hopefully Royce soon. Their individual performances are the only thing keeping me interested in the team at this point. I find myself caring less and less about each win and loss because I just can't imagine this team going anywhere in the playoffs.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Silver lining: 

If your bats are going to desert you, it might as well be the day your pitcher blows up,  Or vice versa.

😐

[jimbo92107]

Think about it: At the beginning of the season, Ryan's fresh arm was making his fastball ride quite a bit, causing batters to consistently swing under it. As the season wore on, and Ryan's arm has worn down, his fastball isn't riding as high as before. Now players that were trying to adjust to it are succeeding. Also, we have observed that when a hitter does adjust to Ryan's fastball, the ball jumps off the bat like a rocket. 

Right now, Ryan's fastball is little better than high-speed batting practice. He definitely needs to skip a start, then re-evaluate his approach for the remainder of the season. If his heater ain't rising, he needs to do something different. 

[Althebum82]

Thank you Josh Winder for stopping the bleeding.  And how many games did Walner overachieve in Saint Paul before we could squeeze him in to the underachieving big league line-up?

[Peter]

Is it time to sit/put joe in bullpen or on DL? League has him figured out. To many home runs given up last night and this can’t continue. Any chance of us getting kuechel back and put in rotation?

[LewFordLives]

4 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Think about it: At the beginning of the season, Ryan's fresh arm was making his fastball ride quite a bit, causing batters to consistently swing under it. As the season wore on, and Ryan's arm has worn down, his fastball isn't riding as high as before. 

It also seems flatter. He used to have good late movement.

[CRF]

I've been around the block more than a few times, and seen many baseball players/pitchers and games. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher give up the long ball like Ryan's done the last month. It's off the charts incredible. 

[Karbo]

Looks like a tired arm. Either move him to the pen, put him on IL, or option him to St. Paul for a couple weeks.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Looks like a tired arm. Either move him to the pen, put him on IL, or option him to St. Paul for a couple weeks.

Ryan's ERA for July was 6.39, His ERA for June was 4.83 (and that included his shutout). Going into June he had pitched 66 innings and his last start in May was 4 inning and 5 runs, are we talking about his arm being tired after 66 innings?

It has to be something else, doesn't it? I mean we knew he wasn't as good as his first 10 starts, very few are, but he isn't as bad as his last 10 starts?

[MABB1959]

9 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

Good thing we have Wallner, Julien, Kirilloff and hopefully Royce soon. Their individual performances are the only thing keeping me interested in the team at this point. I find myself caring less and less about each win and loss because I just can't imagine this team going anywhere in the playoffs.

 

12 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Ryan's ERA for July was 6.39, His ERA for June was 4.83 (and that included his shutout). Going into June he had pitched 66 innings and his last start in May was 4 inning and 5 runs, are we talking about his arm being tired after 66 innings?

It has to be something else, doesn't it? I mean we knew he wasn't as good as his first 10 starts, very few are, but he isn't as bad as his last 10 starts?

Me too.  Pretty much given up on this team. Especially the pathetic offense.  Guys we counted on are horribly disappointing.  Fun to watch Waller, Julien and Kirilloff.  Extremely concerned about Lewis with all of his injuries. Especially this last one where he got injured just by running.  Pitching staff started out exciting but the offense has really let them down.  Pitching with a lead has been rare and many times they can’t even muster up a few runs to take the pressure off the pitcher. 

[Einheri]

Six-man rotation would have helped Ryan, I'm thinking.  Or just put Ryan on the IL for a couple of starts.  Rest and a chance to reconsider his approach.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm also concerned about Joe Ryan's recent outings. What happened? Early in the season he looked rock-solid, but I can't remember the last time he had a quality start (might have been that shutout?). What do the advanced pitching stats say about his performance in the past 6 weeks? Something clearly seems different with him lately. 

[Karbo]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Ryan's ERA for July was 6.39, His ERA for June was 4.83 (and that included his shutout). Going into June he had pitched 66 innings and his last start in May was 4 inning and 5 runs, are we talking about his arm being tired after 66 innings?

It has to be something else, doesn't it? I mean we knew he wasn't as good as his first 10 starts, very few are, but he isn't as bad as his last 10 starts?

I believe he has around 130 IP which is just shy of his career high which I believe was just under 150 last year. Still young though in todays game these guys just don't pitch a lot of innings anymore.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I believe he has around 130 IP which is just shy of his career high which I believe was just under 150 last year. Still young though in todays game these guys just don't pitch a lot of innings anymore.

correct on the numbers, but it isn't like it has been his last 10 - 20 inning that haven't been good, it goes back 50 - 60 innings.

[LastOnePicked]

When does this much-heralded "easy part of the schedule" kick in?

 

[Linus]

Winder with two really good outings in a row. And why was was Wallner in St Paul?

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

They should have skipped him a couple starts and brought Dallas up. As a former pitcher I can tell you with near 100% certainty he is having some dead arm issues and just needs some rest.

[Trov]

I am hoping this is just a painful learning experience for Ryan.  He is serving up meatballs left and right.  Yesterday it was also with plenty of runners on for a couple.  The issue is he is not missing as many bats as he did early in year.  He is clearly missing in the zone, and the ones just on the edge hitters are either fouling off or staying off getting the ball called. 

Joe really needs to develop a good secondary pitch.  Early in the year they were working, but the league has adjusted, he needs to adjust again.  I still have faith in Joe, but right now hitters are just teeing off on the fast ball in all counts. They have no respect for any off-speed pitch, and Joe is not locating his fastball down.  The problem is his go to is fastball up, which has worked, but since his fastball down is not locating at the knees, if the pitch starts low, the hitter assumes it is a breaking ball and adjusts.  Until he can mix up the location, and do it well, with the fastball he will continue to struggle. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

I've been around the block more than a few times, and seen many baseball players/pitchers and games. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher give up the long ball like Ryan's done the last month. It's off the charts incredible. 

The home run context in this era is a little higher but in 1987 Bert Blyleven had a similar two month stretch. He gave up 22 home runs across 12 starts in a stretch where he gave up a home run in 14 straight appearances to start the season, Ryan is at 21 in last 12 giving up home runs in the last 9. Frank Viola in 1986 had 10 starts where he gave up multiple home runs. Joe is at 7 this year.

Home runs are more frequent in this era. In 1986 the AL home run rate was 2.1%. It has increased by almost 50% to 3.1% of plate appearances in 2023. 

[TopGunn#22]

The Joe Ryan we have seen since June & July is nowhere near the pitcher he was for April and May.  Something is off.  He certainly could use some time off.  Whether that's skipping one start or a couple with a 10-day IL stint.  However, the Keuchel opportunity no longer exists so do we call up Varland to take those starts?  

This is a team on a ship that is lost at sea with no apparent destination.  Gaping holes in the lineup abound.  Five left hand hitting corner outfielders wander about the deck longing for a cool breeze.  The pitchers are suffering with scurvy and the captain of the ship decided that trading Jorge Lopez for Dylan Floro was the answer.  Even with Cleveland conceding us the division at the trade deadline (just for good measure, the White Sox threw in the towel too) I can't help but wonder that in the mismatch it is between Rocco's managerial abilities and Francona's, that Cleveland will somehow find a way to beat us out.  

[Guest]

Ryan hasn't been the same since his complete-game shutout.  Keuchel is still available while Joe spends some time thinking about his pitch mix.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If I remember correctly, Ryan started the year with short hair; based on the picture above, it appears he is growing it out.  Is it possible Joe Ryan is Bizarro Samson?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Good thing we've got pitching depth, huh?

<duck>