Exit Kirilloff, Enter Goldschmidt: Could This St. Louis Swap Make Sense Both Now and Later?

[Hans Birkeland]

Alex Kirilloff has proven he can stay healthy as of right now, but may never be the force he was once projected to be offensively. Cashing him in for Paul Goldschmidt would allow the team to improve now while opening a future lineup spot for the Twins' bevy of excellent lefty hitter prospects.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Kirilloff has long been a mythical presence in Twins fandom. He was ascribed the gaudiest projections as a prospect, and when summoned to the majors has provided enticing glimmers of being an offensive force. This year he has been healthy for the first time, at least on the surface, and produced quality numbers hitting between second and fourth in the lineup.

He has warts, too. He can’t hit lefties very well, and doesn’t provide any real defensive value. His power is also a question; coming up through the minor leagues his ability to drive the ball was considered a potential sticking point, and although he appeared to answer those doubters in 2018 with a .578 SLG in two levels of A-ball, that remains the only extended stretch of power he has shown in between all the injuries.

If Kirilloff is in fact, James Loney, Lyle Overbay or Casey Kotchman, starting first baseman with doubles power who control the strike zone and hit seventh in the lineup, he shouldn’t be considered a long-term building block for the organization. If his wrist is holding back his power, and with improving health he becomes Will Clark, that’s a different story. Or if he never gets to his power but learns how to spray the ball around like Joe Mauer or John Olerud, obviously you invest in that player, too.

 

 

It’s hard to improve a roster overflowing with veteran depth pieces whose worst performers are also making the most money, so the Twins may have to make some bold decisions to get better offensively. Moving Kirilloff may be what the doctor ordered.

He plays first base primarily, and a lot of the bats they may look to acquire play there, as well. Last year’s National League MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, is one of those, and although it is unclear whether the Cardinals would sell one of their best hitters off as they look to contend in 2024, it may make sense for them to target Kirilloff as their heir apparent at first.

Why Goldschmidt and not his younger and more dynamic teammate, Nolan Arenado? For starters, Arenado is nearly four years younger than Goldschmidt at 32-years-old, is one of the best defensive third baseman of all time, and is under contract through 2027 (which is also when Kirilloff would become a free agent for the first time). If the Cardinals expect to win over the next few years, why would they get rid of a team controlled future Hall-of-Famer still in his prime? They wouldn’t, short of receiving a better package than the Nationals got for Juan Soto (i.e. ridiculous and franchise-crippling).

Goldschmidt is more of a pure hitter than Arenado, and in contrast is under contract for just one more year. The Cardinals may actually be interested in cashing in on his value now, while acquiring a young hitter with loads of potential to slot in around Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras. The Cardinals scouts would have to believe Kirilloff’s bat is more Olerud than Kotchman, but if they do this may constitute something more than wishcasting.

On the Twins side, they would acquire in Goldschmidt a student of the game with an incredible resume who also operates as a serious, reserved leader who, incidentally, would become the team’s best hitter with a 144 career OPS+, meaning 44% better than league average. The Twins current leader in OPS+ is Eduoard Julien at 137.

 

 

Keeping in mind the Twins really only need an average offense to compete with their pitching staff, how would this October lineup look (assuming Byron Buxton moves hell and earth to play center field in the playoffs):

Correa SS

Julien DH

Goldschmidt 1B

Buxton CF

Polanco 2B

Lewis 3B

Kepler RF

Jeffers C

Gallo LF

That has to be a top-seven lineup in the AL, and if injuries become a factor, Donovan Solano, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Matt Wallner could supplement and depending on who they replace, make the lineup potentially even better. The only doubling up of handedness would occur from Goldschmidt to Buxton, so matchups would be tricky for the opposition, at least in theory. For his career, Goldschmidt has over a 1.000 OPS versus lefties, currently the Twins biggest weakness. If Buxton still can’t play center, the team needs to find a way to teach Julien how to stand in left field, in which case Michael A. Taylor would remain in the mix, replacing Gallo or Kepler. Willi Castro and/or Martin could pinch-run and play both infield and outfield. The team would still strike out plenty (Goldschmidt is good for about 150 of those a year), but would present a much scarier challenge to the Guardians as well as any postseason opponent.

What about the Twins’ future? Wouldn’t this mortgage it just to invest in a barely .500 team that alternates between frustrating, annoying and mediocre? Maybe, or perhaps it opens doors for the pieces of the Twins’ offensive prospect puzzle to fit together. Sure, for every instance of the Astros letting Carlos Correa go just to call up Jeremy Pena and not miss a beat, there are thousands of stories of teams freeing up a position for a guy and ending up, due to injury, underperformance or both, having to roll out plan C or D. But letting Julien take over first base after learning from the four-time gold glover Goldschmidt for a year, might make some sense. Julien can definitely hit, but taking his arm out of play is the best scenario for everyone, long–term. He can anchor future lineups that include Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee without getting in anyone's way, and the future would remain bright on the hitting side.

Would Goldschmidt cost more than just Kirilloff? Surely. The Cardinals would likely ask for pitching, with Marco Raya, Louie Varland and David Festa surefire targets of theirs. According to baseballtradevalues.com, adding any of that group to Kirilloff in a trade package would constitute an overpay, but the Cardinals aren’t about to cast Goldschmidt aside for anything resembling equal value.

My proposition would be Kirilloff, Festa and Brent Headrick for Goldschmidt and one of their setup men, like Jordan Hicks (as a rental) or Genesis Cabrera (two more years of team control). BTV sees that as a moderate overpay, with the Cardinals getting about 30% more value than the Twins.

What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this? Sound off in the comments.

 

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[Byrdman]

Why, Goldy is old declining and done in two years.  AK will be a all-star for the Twins for a few years.  AK is way to good to trade away.  Big big mistake if they even think about it.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean, I love Kirilloff. But I would RUN to make this deal if possible. 

[tony&rodney]

The Cardinals GM was very specific about trading for pitching. This trade has a near zero probability for multiple reasons. St. Louis wants pitching (Ober or Ryan would draw their attention), PG has a no trade clause in his contract, the Twins are at their limit financially, and AK is a part of the Twins future as well as providing value in the present. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Cardinals GM was very specific about trading for pitching. This trade has a near zero probability for multiple reasons. St. Louis wants pitching (Ober or Ryan would draw their attention), PG has a no trade clause in his contract, the Twins are at their limit financially, and AK is a part of the Twins future as well as providing value in the present. 

ONLY responding to the Twins payroll limit; I don't see any reason they couldn't add payroll for the rest of this season. That wouldn't be a deterrent here.

I don't know that I see THIS trade going through, but payroll shouldn't be an issue just for the 2023 season. And with all the payroll coming off of the books after the year (fyi, there is a LOT) Goldschmidt's contract wouldn't be an issue.

But yeah, the trade as listed probably isn't happening. Fun to dream though.

[jmlease1]

I think the kind of overpay required, along with the fact the Goldschmidt is only under contract for one more season, AND the additional payroll the Twins would be taking on makes this a no. Especially since Kirilloff seems to be really hitting a stride, and is clearly healthy again...so is that good business for the Twins?

[Brett]

I like the logic, but I don’t see the front office pushing their chips in for this type of move.  On the whole, we seem to be better at developing prospects than pulling off trades.

[TwinkieFan4life]

The guy hasn't been able to play in 2+ years.  He is really in his first sustained exposure to MLB.  He is succeeding.  He is cheap.  I think he could improve dramatically with a run of sustained health and exposure to the league.  I wouldn't take the deal.  I would offer Larnach, Wallner, and Raya to start negotiating.

[Hans Birkeland]

29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Cardinals GM was very specific about trading for pitching. This trade has a near zero probability for multiple reasons. St. Louis wants pitching (Ober or Ryan would draw their attention), PG has a no trade clause in his contract, the Twins are at their limit financially, and AK is a part of the Twins future as well as providing value in the present. 

The sticking point is more the no trade clause- from all accounts he likes St. Louis. But mainly they want to compete next year, and getting Kirilloff plus a rotation piece (Varland, Festa) could certainly accomplish that not just for 2024, but beyond PG's contract.

The Twins are not at their limit financially... if anyone is, its the Cardinals who are running a franchise record 183M payroll this year while being a last place team.

[mikelink45]

No.  We have waited for Kiriloff to be healthy and right now he and Julien are our consistent bats.   Goldschmidt is a great player, but when teams invest in older players because of what they once did they handicap the future.  Look at Pujols with the Angels, the Mets, the Yankees with Donaldson (so glad we got rid of him), Miquel Cabrera is a shadow of himself with Detroit.  Scherzer and Verlander are not the great pitchers they once were.  KC is paying for what Greinke was a few years ago.  

Pay and play the young and talented.  Until he got hurt again - Lewis, Julien, and Kiriloff were the building blocks for the future.  

Will Correa be worth our investment, is Buxton worthy of his contract or his he a fast Sano? Develop what we have, sign free agents, but don't send prospects.  

[pierre75275]

hard to improve a roster overflowing with veteran depth pieces whose worst performers are also making the most money

You said it yourself. Why add to it? PG is 35 and slumping, and is in danger of becoming exactly that. His current OPS is 843 and dropping.

AK is younger has only 550 at bats at the major league level with 18 HR. That's not poor slugging. Also this yr, finally healthy, in 200 at bats his OPS is 835 and rising. If AK was part of a trade for PG, this trade would go down as one of the worst trades since the Twins traded Garza for delmon young, or Ramos for Matt Capps.

Paul G could help the team but AK is a type of player you build around for long term success.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not happening.  Love Goldy, but you would have to negotiate a contract extension that would probably be an overpay for the downside of his career.  AK is cost controlled for a long time.  

Looking at 2024, if things continue the way they do, you are probably looking at AK as a starting OF with Julien at 1B.  I would feel more comfortable with a little more proven experience out there, but that does not seem to be the way the Twins roll (Miranda and Gordon being handed the keys for example).

[Hans Birkeland]

4 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

hard to improve a roster overflowing with veteran depth pieces whose worst performers are also making the most money

You said it yourself. Why add to it? PG is 35 and slumping, and is in danger of becoming exactly that. His current OPS is 843 and dropping.

AK is younger has only 550 at bats at the major league level with 18 HR. That's not poor slugging. Also this yr, finally healthy, in 200 at bats his OPS is 835 and rising. If AK was part of a trade for PG, this trade would go down as one of the worst trades since the Twins traded Garza for delmon young, or Ramos for Matt Capps.

Paul G could help the team but AK is a type of player you build around for long term success.

Goldy ain't no depth piece

[roger]

Would be one of the biggest mistakes this FO could make. 

AK has played little to no baseball for the past three years.  Now that he is finally healthy, he is developing into the player we always thought he would be.  Come next summer we will see what that is.  Why trade away a future star, who is currently inexpensive for an aging super star who is very expensive?  Stupid in my opinion.

[sorney]

Hard pass.

[chpettit19]

Wouldn't it be something to trade away Steer, CES, and Kirilloff at back to back deadlines and see them all blow up in your face?

I love Goldy. Would absolutely trade for him. But I'm not trading Kirilloff to do it. Goldy is on the way down. Still very good, and would look great in the heart of this lineup, but Kirilloff is doing what we all hoped he would, and is on the way up. Unfortunate timing to have this article come out at a time when he's hit 3 bombs in 4 games and claim he probably can't slug. 

We've also been talking about all this great depth, and all these great prospects, for years now. And I'm still not seeing it. I'm not trading Kirilloff because ERod may learn to make more contact, or because of an 18 year old who isn't even signed yet. Lee looks like he may be able to be at Kirilloff's level in the near future, but there's no other all around bat in AA or higher that we need to think of clearing the way for. If we end up with more stud young players in 3 years than we have spots I'm sure we'd be able to figure out something to do with them.

I also don't think adding Goldy while subtracting Kirilloff would improve this lineup enough to risk so many more years of Kirilloff. They need to add Goldy while taking guys from the bottom of the lineup, not the top.

[Parfigliano]

Goldschmidt will be Goldbrick by this time next year.  Expensive and impractical.  Cardinals can keep him.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, I love Kirilloff. But I would RUN to make this deal if possible. 

Naw, this place would be insufferable when AK unlocks his pull power.

[wipster]

Only a 30% overpay from the Twins? Our brilliant FO wouldn't stand for that! Throw in another upper prospect. Then, I'm sure Goldschmidt would be injured about a week after the trade and be out for the rest of the year.  Meanwhile, our traded players flourish for various Cards major/minor league teams. NOW, that sounds a little closer to reality!

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Naw, this place would be insufferable when AK unlocks his pull power.

I hope they don't make deals, or don't make deals, based on message board commentary.

[Hans Birkeland]

12 minutes ago, wipster said:

Only a 30% overpay from the Twins? Our brilliant FO wouldn't stand for that! Throw in another upper prospect. Then, I'm sure Goldschmidt would be injured about a week after the trade and be out for the rest of the year.  Meanwhile, our traded players flourish for various Cards major/minor league teams. NOW, that sounds a little closer to reality!

Goldschmidt has been on the IL once in his career, 9 years ago. Soo yeah that sounds pretty on brand for a Twins trade acquisition.

[USAFChief]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I love Goldy. Would absolutely trade for him. But I'm not trading Kirilloff to do it. 

Precisely. 

And there's zero chance the FO would do this. IYAM.

[pierre75275]

1 hour ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Goldy ain't no depth piece

Didn't say he was. However, he is 35 and could quickly become one due to age and regression.

 

[jmlease1]

Kirilloff is 25; Goldschmidt is 35. they have the exact same OPS+ right now. Goldschmidt is having one of his worst seasons at the plate as a pro, Kirilloff is having his best. Goldschmidt makes $26M per season, Kirilloff makes what...league minimum?

there's no question that Goldschmidt is a far more accomplished player with a consistent track record of being a great hitter (and has deserved to win at least some of the defensive hardware he's gotten), and his right-handed bat would fit great in the Twins lineup, but trading Kirilloff feels like a move the Twins would seriously regret in a year.

[Mike Sixel]

No chance. Zero. Nada. Nil. 

[Otaknam]

No to trading Kiriloff for Goldy, especially if it included Raya or E. Rodriquez. Only make a deal like this if Twins are a real World Series contender and Goldschmidt is the missing piece. But they are just a 500+ team given the poor play of Correa and Buxton. 

[miracleb]

If the error that Goldschmidt is already 35 years old...not 32 years old was recognized sooner....this article probably would not have been written......

[Schmoeman5]

It's fun to be with friends or on blogs discussing scenarios of potentially adding a big name to your favorite teams roster. How many people (fans) had Correa coming to Minnesota in 2022. And in his case even wanted him because he was a foe you loved to hate. But then once he does join your team he's embraced because now he's one of yours. I didnt include Donaldson because I don't think anyone ever really liked him. Including teammates. It's also not realistic or ever going to happen 99.9% of the time. And Goldschmidts best days are behind him while Kirilloff is on the rise. He also has a history with his wrist. If Goldscmidt was 31 or so instead of 35  it would be a no brainer. And if the Twins really want to shake up the baseball world. Just mortgage the franchise and go after oh oh oh Ohtani. 

[Hans Birkeland]

Just now, miracleb said:

If the error that Goldschmidt is already 35 years old...not 32 years old was recognized sooner....this article probably would not have been written......

"For starters, Arenado is nearly four years younger than Goldschmidt at 32-years-old" What are you even talking about?

[CRF]

Not gonna happen...and if by some chance Goldy would be available, and to us, I wouldn't move AK to get him. No way.