Exit Kirilloff, Enter Goldschmidt: Could This St. Louis Swap Make Sense Both Now and Later?

[ashbury]

Apparently trading for Goldschmidt will make Austin Martin a major league caliber player by October.   Lot of other wishful thinking going on in this analysis.

I'm not trading away young pitching for a year and a half of Goldschmidt.

I'm not trading Kirilloff even-up for Goldschmidt.  The former stands to hit as well as the latter, with better fielding, for less money, for a longer stay.  Goldie is a proven major league hitter, and then some, but the economics are all against.

This deal is a non-starter IMO.

[DFlow]

This is a very easy pass due to overpay. Let’s hit your points:

-Can’t hit lefties: he’s had 41 ABs this year against lefties. Not exactly a strong sample size and his minors batting is fine against lefties.

- Plays 1B: He is a fine LF. We just have Gallo there for now. You can move AK to LF tomorrow if the team sold Gallo while acquiring Goldschmidt.

-Power: it’s early to make a call on his power. With six opposite way HRs the power is clearly there. He’s just learning to trust his wrist.

In my opinion, this article is a little hyperbolic on AK’s skills. He’s shown he’s at worst a high average, high on base LF. This team needs this in the lineup. 

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, DFlow said:

In my opinion, this article is a little hyperbolic on AK’s skills. He’s shown he’s at worst a high average, high on base LF.

Agreed. The article also gave short shrift to Kirilloff's defense at first base.  I hadn't had much chance to see his play until recently, but if Eddie Julien is going to play a lot at second base, I want Alex there at first to save him from as many errors as humanly possible.  He saved at least two that I noticed in the past few games, one last night, that I didn't see how was possible without wrenching his back or otherwise hurting himself.  Goldie's defense isn't his calling card and I doubt those plays would have been made, likewise with our other 1B candidates.  Defense at 1B is of course never a deciding factor, but it should not be summarily dismissed either.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Not only would the Twins (probably) think this is too much to give up, but I would think the Cards would want the centerpiece of the Goldschmidt deal to be a pitching prospect. I would think that we'd have to give up Winder, Raya, and a top-10 hitting prospect. Not to mention that giving up a middle-of-the-order bat to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat seems like a bad idea.

[Reptevia]

There is no “later” for 35 yo. Only makes sense in a win now scenario. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

The sticking point is more the no trade clause- from all accounts he likes St. Louis. But mainly they want to compete next year, and getting Kirilloff plus a rotation piece (Varland, Festa) could certainly accomplish that not just for 2024, but beyond PG's contract.

The Twins are not at their limit financially... if anyone is, its the Cardinals who are running a franchise record 183M payroll this year while being a last place team.

The Cardinal’s finances aren’t hurt if they finish last once every 15 years. They’ll draw their usual 3 million people.

Why would we trade Festa / Varland - Kirilloff for a guy that has 1 season of control after this. The emphasis in the article seems to be written by an Assistant GM for the Cardinals. “Let’s make sure they are happy……” I’m a realist & understand the trade needs to work for both sides.

Why would we trade a 1B that the Cardinals can build around for years (hence their motivation) plus 2 young arms they would like and take on a guy for 1.3 seasons??? Kirilloff is a building block in St. Louis but he sucks for the Twins future????

Goldschmidt for Varland - SWR - Moran, their pitching request, may make some sense. They get upside arms with control & we get a guy to play 1B for 2 playoff runs ………we use Kirilloff to displace Gallo in LF. No financial concerns involved. Win - Win.

Kirilloff is potentially Justin Morneau - he’s in his first, healthy full year. Look up Goldschmidt’s first full year………..very similar numbers……Goldschmidt had more AB’s in 2012 - more homers - more strikeouts - same OPS, around .830.

Kirilloff for nearly anyone that’s not a dynamic athlete (15 guys in baseball) is crazy IMO, at this point in his developing career! He has 35 double, gap power but probably only 30 double speed. He can hit 20 HR a season easily - has 9 now in ‘23 with 195 AB’s.

I’m guessing .285 career BA. - .825 OPS and an average, at best LF & occasional 1B/DH.

Would love Goldschmidt - makes us a contender immediately!!! Can’t trade Kirilloff to make it happen.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Hans Birkeland said:

"For starters, Arenado is nearly four years younger than Goldschmidt at 32-years-old" What are you even talking about?

Maybe he misread a poorly worded sentence. 

How about:

"At thirtytwo, Arenado is nearly four years younger than Goldschmidt."

 

[blindeke]

AK and Goldschmidt have the same OPS+ right now. AK is only gonna get better; Goldschmidt is only gonna get worse.

[nicksaviking]

Both teams say 'NO' and hang up emphatically.

The only question is, if neither team made the call, how were they talking to each other in the first place?!?

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Both teams say 'NO' and hang up emphatically.

The only question is, if neither team made the call, how were they talking to each other in the first place?!?

They never threw away their ticker tape machines.

[rv78]

Lets see...... We got veteran Gallo, veteran Vazquez, veteran Correa, veteran Kepler, veteran Buxton, all of them who are holding this team back. If Polanco was healthy Julien wouldn't be in the lineup. Currently one of the teams best hitters. You think Goldschmidt who is nothing of the hitter he once was would be an improvement over Kirilloff? In addition, a player in his last contract year for a youngster finally getting the chance to prove himself, which he is doing? Why the obsession with veteran players who are NOT the players they once were? Only a fool would do this trade...... course only a fool would give Gallo $11M. Let's hope this doesn't happen.

[Hans Birkeland]

3 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Lets see...... We got veteran Gallo, veteran Vazquez, veteran Correa, veteran Kepler, veteran Buxton, all of them who are holding this team back. If Polanco was healthy Julien wouldn't be in the lineup. Currently one of the teams best hitters. You think Goldschmidt who is nothing of the hitter he once was would be an improvement over Kirilloff? In addition, a player in his last contract year for a youngster finally getting the chance to prove himself, which he is doing? Why the obsession with veteran players who are NOT the players they once were? Only a fool would do this trade...... course only a fool would give Gallo $11M. Let's hope this doesn't happen.

Is Goldschmidt not the reigning MVP? He's falling off a cliff because he has an .840 OPS so far this year? Maybe give it a year before declaring a Hall of Famer's career dead.

[Eris]

Alex Kirilloff is the one Twins player who potentially could consistently hit 25 HR a year with a 300 BA with above average defense at first and we are proposing to trade him. They really have not had a player with that potential since Kirby Puckett. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Eris said:

Alex Kirilloff is the one Twins player who potentially could consistently hit 25 HR a year with a 300 BA with above average defense at first and we are proposing to trade him. They really have not had a player with that potential since Kirby Puckett. 

I think you need to adjust your requirements.....10 qualified players are hitting over .300 right now.

[Paul Walerius]

9 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

The sticking point is more the no trade clause- from all accounts he likes St. Louis. But mainly they want to compete next year, and getting Kirilloff plus a rotation piece (Varland, Festa) could certainly accomplish that not just for 2024, but beyond PG's contract.

The Twins are not at their limit financially... if anyone is, its the Cardinals who are running a franchise record 183M payroll this year while being a last place team.

Why would you trade one of the only hitters that is performing? Leaving Gallo in there does nothing.  Move AK to LF.   

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hope they don't make deals, or don't make deals, based on message board commentary.

Especially this one.

[dxpavelka]

Do it.  Kiriloff and Julien are likely competing for one spot long term and Julien looks to be the more promising hitter. To me.

[twinstalker]

15 hours ago, Byrdman said:

Why, Goldy is old declining and done in two years.  AK will be a all-star for the Twins for a few years.  AK is way to good to trade away.  Big big mistake if they even think about it.  

LOL.  So, AK will have 2+ years service time at the end of this year.  He'll hit for less power than is needed.  He is a Boras client, so he will be gone at the end of six years unless the Twins overpay steeply to keep him.

I hope people realize Falvey has sold his soul to the devil, and the devil has it now.  Boras is the one who controls the Twins fate.  This isn't going to end well for anyone except Boras.  Not you, me, or Falvey, just Boras.

[AZTwin]

I swear twins fans are the dumbest fans out there.  Always wanting to give away top talent for nothing.  As mentioned, Goldschmidt is aging.  We are in a race and could use Kiriloff.  Give them a couple prospect that looks good but have warts.  Someone like Blayne Enlow, Noah miller and Matt Canterino should be on table for Goldschmidt. Not Kiriloff 

[Squirrel]

On 7/18/2023 at 12:02 AM, Hans Birkeland said:

Cashing him in for Paul Goldschmidt would allow the team to improve now while opening a future lineup spot for the Twins' bevy of excellent lefty hitter prospects.

Is this what you’d like the Twins to do? Is this seriously what you think they should do?

[Hans Birkeland]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Is this what you’d like the Twins to do? Is this seriously what you think they should do?

If they wanted to try and win a World Series this year, then yes. That would be taking quite the gamble, but so was trading Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman. Obviously that Cubs team was better than this Twins team, but I don't think MLB has any true juggernauts outside of the Braves this year. It was fun to write about.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

Apparently trading for Goldschmidt will make Austin Martin a major league caliber player by October.   Lot of other wishful thinking going on in this analysis.

I'm not trading away young pitching for a year and a half of Goldschmidt.

I'm not trading Kirilloff even-up for Goldschmidt.  The former stands to hit as well as the latter, with better fielding, for less money, for a longer stay.  Goldie is a proven major league hitter, and then some, but the economics are all against.

This deal is a non-starter IMO.

Completely agree on the 1 for 1 trade. Timing & upside are not in our favor.

Goldschmidt in our line-up for 2 playoff runs would be exciting though!

By mid-August:

Sub Kirilloff into LF for Gallo (released) play Polanco/Farmer at 2B batting .260 with Julien displacing Buxton (to IL) at DH, along with Solano as needed v. LH pitching….…Lewis back at 3B. We gain 70 points at 3B - 100 points in LF - 110 points at DH in batting averages. We gain an RBI guy in middle of our lineup hitting .285 & we lose Gallo & Buxton & Farmer/Castro at 3B.

Moran - Winder - SWR to make it happen. Is that enough upside/depth for the Cardinals? Maybe we go deeper? This move, with some assumed health, makes us a contender in the AL!!

As we all know, just displacing Gallo & Buxton with internal present options would be a good thing - with no Goldschmidt trade.

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Is Goldschmidt not the reigning MVP? He's falling off a cliff because he has an .840 OPS so far this year? Maybe give it a year before declaring a Hall of Famer's career dead.

He’s not done - surely! Trading a guy that is in his same mold, that’s 10 years younger,  doesn’t strengthen the team.

Cards want controlled pitching …….give them Moran - SWR - Winder…….maybe stretch to Varland v. one of the others?

Kirilloff batting 3rd behind Julien with Goldschmidt & Lewis coming up sounds great!

[In My La Z boy]

9 hours ago, AZTwin said:

I swear twins fans are the dumbest fans out there.  Always wanting to give away top talent for nothing.  As mentioned, Goldschmidt is aging.  We are in a race and could use Kiriloff.  Give them a couple prospect that looks good but have warts.  Someone like Blayne Enlow, Noah miller and Matt Canterino should be on table for Goldschmidt. Not Kiriloff 

Twins fans didn't make the bad trade deadline trades, this front office did. Gave away CES and Steer for nothing last year, and Coulombe (DFA'd) and Cano are currently manning the back end of the Orioles BP - and we have Lopez and Mahle. Nice work there. I'd say no trades this July. We'll get fleeced. If anything we should get younger & see if the Reds will trade us CES back for Sonny Gray and move on from Gallo/Kepler and Polanco. Trading Kirilloff would be insane. 

[Hans Birkeland]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Twins fans didn't make the bad trade deadline trades, this front office did. Gave away CES and Steer for nothing last year, and Coulombe (DFA'd) and Cano are currently manning the back end of the Orioles BP - and we have Lopez and Mahle. Nice work there. I'd say no trades this July. We'll get fleeced. If anything we should get younger & see if the Reds will trade us CES back for Sonny Gray and move on from Gallo/Kepler and Polanco. Trading Kirilloff would be insane. 

I watched a couple of A ball games with CES last year and I never would have traded him under any circumstance but getting frontline starting pitching is always going to hurt. We won't get fleeced every time and this front office is going to make moves whether you are ready to get hurt again or not.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

On 7/20/2023 at 8:28 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, I love Kirilloff. But I would RUN to make this deal if possible. 

The level of relief I feel right now, knowing you aren't the Gm, cant be put into words. Most on here have been excited about Alex since Terry Ryan stole him in the draft. He is young, controlled, cheap and finally healthy and knocking the cover off balls. It would be colossally stupid. He is a foundational piece along with several others that you build around. What we need is one more SOLID relief arm, a lefty would be great. And a RH bat that can play the outfield would be next on my list. I'm personally more interested in leaving 1b open also so I can hide Julien there some next season if Buck needs to DH the entire year again, which I pray isn't how it goes.