Exit Kirilloff, Enter Goldschmidt: Could This St. Louis Swap Make Sense Both Now and Later?

Alex Kirilloff has long been a mythical presence in Twins fandom. He was ascribed the gaudiest projections as a prospect, and when summoned to the majors has provided enticing glimmers of being an offensive force. This year, he has been healthy for the first time, at least on the surface, and produced quality numbers hitting between second and fourth in the lineup.

He has warts, too. He can’t hit lefties very well, and doesn’t provide any real defensive value. His power is also a question; coming up through the minor leagues his ability to drive the ball was considered a potential sticking point, and although he appeared to answer those doubters in 2018 with a .578 SLG in two levels of A-ball, that remains the only extended stretch of power he has shown in between all the injuries.

If Kirilloff is in fact, James Loney, Lyle Overbay or Casey Kotchman, starting first baseman with doubles power who control the strike zone and hit seventh in the lineup, he shouldn’t be considered a long-term building block for the organization. If his wrist is holding back his power, and with improving health he becomes Will Clark, that’s a different story. Or if he never gets to his power but learns how to spray the ball around like Joe Mauer or John Olerud, obviously you invest in that player, too.

It’s hard to improve a roster overflowing with veteran depth pieces whose worst performers are also making the most money, so the Twins may have to make some bold decisions to get better offensively. Moving Kirilloff may be what the doctor ordered.

He plays first base primarily, and a lot of the bats they may look to acquire play there, as well. Last year’s National League MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, is one of those, and although it is unclear whether the Cardinals would sell one of their best hitters off as they look to contend in 2024, it may make sense for them to target Kirilloff as their heir apparent at first.

Why Goldschmidt and not his younger and more dynamic teammate, Nolan Arenado? For starters, Arenado is nearly four years younger than Goldschmidt at 32-years-old, is one of the best defensive third baseman of all time, and is under contract through 2027 (which is also when Kirilloff would become a free agent for the first time). If the Cardinals expect to win over the next few years, why would they get rid of a team controlled future Hall-of-Famer still in his prime? They wouldn’t, short of receiving a better package than the Nationals got for Juan Soto (i.e. ridiculous and franchise-crippling).

Goldschmidt is more of a pure hitter than Arenado, and in contrast is under contract for just one more year. The Cardinals may actually be interested in cashing in on his value now, while acquiring a young hitter with loads of potential to slot in around Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras. The Cardinals scouts would have to believe Kirilloff’s bat is more Olerud than Kotchman, but if they do this may constitute something more than wishcasting.

On the Twins side, they would acquire in Goldschmidt a student of the game with an incredible resume who also operates as a serious, reserved leader who, incidentally, would become the team’s best hitter with a 144 career OPS+, meaning 44% better than league average. The only Twin who exceeds that mark this year is, of course, the unconscious Edouard Julien who sits at 154.

Keeping in mind the Twins really only need an average offense to compete with their pitching staff, how would this October lineup look (assuming Byron Buxton moves hell and earth to play center field in the playoffs):

Correa SS
Julien DH
Goldschmidt 1B
Buxton CF
Polanco 2B
Lewis 3B
Kepler RF
Jeffers C
Gallo LF

That has to be a top-seven lineup in the AL, and if injuries become a factor, Donovan Solano, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Matt Wallner could supplement and depending on who they replace, make the lineup potentially even better. The only doubling up of handedness would occur from Goldschmidt to Buxton, so matchups would be tricky for the opposition, at least in theory.

For his career, Goldschmidt has over a 1.000 OPS versus lefties, currently the Twins biggest weakness. If Buxton still can’t play center, the team needs to find a way to teach Julien how to stand in left field, in which case Michael A. Taylor would remain in the mix, replacing Gallo or Kepler. Willi Castro and/or Martin could pinch-run and play both infield and outfield. The team would still strike out plenty (Goldschmidt is good for about 150 of those a year), but would present a much scarier challenge to the Guardians as well as any postseason opponent.

What about the Twins’ future? Wouldn’t this mortgage it just to invest in a barely .500 team that alternates between frustrating, annoying and mediocre? Maybe, or perhaps it opens doors for the pieces of the Twins’ offensive prospect puzzle to fit together. Sure, for every instance of the Astros letting Carlos Correa go just to call up Jeremy Pena and not miss a beat, there are thousands of stories of teams freeing up a position for a guy and ending up, due to injury, underperformance or both, having to roll out plan C or D.

But letting Julien take over first base after learning from the four-time gold glover Goldschmidt for a year, might make some sense. Julien can definitely hit, but taking his arm out of play is the best scenario for everyone, long–term. He can anchor future lineups that include Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee without getting in anyone's way, and the future would remain bright on the hitting side.

Would Goldschmidt cost more than just Kirilloff? Surely. The Cardinals would likely ask for pitching, with Marco Raya, Louie Varland and David Festa surefire targets of theirs. According to baseballtradevalues.com, adding any of that group to Kirilloff in a trade package would constitute an overpay, but the Cardinals aren’t about to cast Goldschmidt aside for anything resembling equal value.

My proposition would be Kirilloff, Festa and Brent Headrick for Goldschmidt and one of their setup men, like Jordan Hicks (as a rental) or Genesis Cabrera (two more years of team control). BTV sees that as a moderate overpay, with the Cardinals getting about 30% more value than the Twins.

What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this? Sound off in the comments.