Is Bailey Ober Sustainable?

[Ted Wiedmann]

Bailey Ober’s tenure in the starting staff has been successful so far, but there are warning signs.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Bailey Ober has experienced moderate success with 2.7 fWAR in almost 160 Major League innings, and he’s looked excellent to start this season. In addition, quality starting pitching is held at a premium, and having depth in that category presents a massive advantage over the rest of the league. 

So it may seem disingenuous to suggest a starter with a career 3.66 ERA in roughly an entire season’s worth of work to move to the bullpen, especially for a team stretching its starting pitcher depth. However, there are warning signs that Ober’s success may not be sustainable to the level at which he’s performed.

Health is the most apparent and straightforward reason to explain this transition. Ober has suffered extended missed time in multiple seasons with multiple lower body injuries that include mostly hip problems; this doesn’t bode well in the future for a six-foot nine-inch 270-pound body entering his late 20s. 

Bailey Ober has pitched professionally since 2017 and has only once eclipsed the 100-inning mark in a season. Hopefully, this season he can find that number again. However, as far as the data says, Ober is too unreliable to pencil in a starting pitcher’s workload, even with that standard diminishing. 

Another factor likely affected by his health track record but also has some to do with his stuff is Ober’s inability to pitch deep into games. Ober has recorded over 18 outs only once in 33 starts during his Big League career. One part of this is the Twins likely trying to lessen his workload. In his rookie season in 2021, they ensured he was adequately built up after not pitching a minor league season in 2020 that contributed to short starts.

I believe his starts are also cut short because of his splits the first and second time through the order and his splits versus lefties and righties. 

Here are comparative numbers first time through vs. second time through (per Fangraphs): 

ERA: 2.42 vs. 4.96
FIP: 3.56 vs. 4.27
Slash: .217/.267/.388 vs .274/.318/.479
wOBA: .283 vs .340
K-BB%: 22.6% vs 16.6%
Hard contact%: 30.1% vs. 37.2%

He’s only faced 76 total batters the third time through, albeit with relative success, but the sample is small enough that I’m not sure it’s worth much consideration. With the dropoff in results from the first to the second time in the order, there is no reason to trust Ober to be successful a third time, which will limit his ability to work deep into games. 

As stated before, Ober also suffers from extreme platoon splits. Here are his comparative numbers against left-handed vs. right-handed hitters:

(R vs. L)
Slash: .217/.237/.411 vs .274/.341/.441
K-BB%: 24.9% vs 11.7%
WHIP: 0.89 vs. 1.48
FIP: 3.52 vs. 4.33
wOBA: .273 vs .339

While you may or may not agree with the stance of protecting pitchers who face a lineup multiple times, there is no denying Ober dominates right-handed hitters and struggles against left-handed ones. Being susceptible to platoon matchups, Ober would likely struggle against heavy left-handed or switch-hitting teams (like the Guardians) and would force a manager’s hand to play matchups in a high-leverage situation during the middle innings. 

Which isn’t to say Ober can’t be a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still, he will need to take steps forward (perhaps with his change-up) to increase his effectiveness against left-handed hitters to reach that ceiling, luckily a correctable problem. The topic of a bullpen move is premature, as this is likely a 2024 or 2025 subject and requires some other arms in the organization to reach their potential.

I could also see the Twins having Ober be in the rotation for most of the regular season and transitioning to the bullpen for the postseason, a lot like Kenta Maeda did for the Dodgers for many years. Given his success in the early innings and his domination of right-handed hitters, I believe Ober would be a capable, high-leverage reliever. 

With a move to the bullpen, you can limit Ober’s workload even further, as health is by far the most impactful reason for this, and possibly get more production from him in the long run. You can also control his matchups, take advantage of his strengths, and mask his weaknesses. 

I think, if nothing else, these holes in Ober’s game are worth pointing out to level expectations and seeing that a Brad Peacock -type career of a hybrid starting/relief role could be in the balance if adjustments are not made. Ultimately the goal for the Twins should be to reach the level the Astros or Dodgers were at when they could afford to have pitchers like Peacock and Maeda in the bullpen.

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[DJL44]

He's one of the 5 best options in the rotation and would be one of the 5 best options for most major league teams.

[TwinsDr2021]

If the Twins really think he has a chance at next year's rotation, then he should stay, if the plan for next year doesn't include him, move him to the pen now.

[chpettit19]

Will be interesting to watch how he throws against all the Cleveland lefties tonight. I didn't know he had such big splits so that's interesting info. The Guardians have 5 guys who'll bat lefty against him tonight.

The innings limit is going to be interesting to watch them navigate this season. If he breaks down again his career as a starter is likely over. But if he can get to 120+ innings this year they'll have some decisions to make for next year. He's an interesting case.

[ashbury]

Based on the things you looked at I wondered if he was requiring too many pitches per batter faced, but at 3.93 he's running just about a league average this year, much as he's done in 2021-22.  I think the manager is just being ultra cautious with his workload..

[Ricky Vaughn]

Not even close to moving him to the pen. At times he just dominates a lineup. I think most of his lower body injuries can be corrected by changes to his mechanics or conditioning.

[ashbury]

This article aged well. 

[twins_89]

I don't have any real doubt that Ober is a major league caliber starting pitcher and will be in the Twins rotation for the next few years.

[Rosterman]

91 pitches tonight. 66 strikes. Looks like he might be here to stay! 7 solid innings!

[High heat]

This article didn’t age well.  7 shutout innings tonight.

 

Health is an issue and I wouldn’t sign him to a long term extension but he seems to give you a chance to win every time he pitches.  Might he break down later in the season and not have a long sustained career maybe.  Let the good times role and get what you can out of him.  Not that adjustment aren’t needed but what he’s been doing works for him.

[wabene]

Ober looked great tonight. He thinks he belongs. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Ober is what most of the Twins SP in the minors are looking to be:  quality mid-rotation starters.  That isn't necessarily a bad thing.
 

[miller761]

All that matters are results. Tonight he got us 7 super innings and a win. Give me more Bailey Ober!!

[Monkeypaws]

Well played with the reverse jinx post.

[D.C Twins]

Yes. he. is.

The only question is how good he can be and if he can safely build up his 'pitch count'

[Monkeypaws]

No reason to take him out of the rotation now. Mahle and Meida are broken. Ober is in his prime.

[Danchat]

Keep him in the rotation for the near future - if more injuries strike, move him to the pen. Seems straightforward to me.

[twins_89]

With team control through 2027, Ober is looking a rotation building block. It's really nice to have Lopez, Ryan , and Ober all under team control through 4 seasons after this year.

[jimbo92107]

Not only did Ober pitch seven complete shutout innings, he out-pitched a guy that was working on a perfect game. Bailey Ober is an excellent mlb starter. 

[Craig Arko]

He may, in fact, be renewable. 

[Doctor Wu]

Very interesting article and analysis. Ober has obviously been a bright spot in the brief time he's been up this year. But this one thing that stood out for me in this article was this:

Bailey Ober has pitched professionally since 2017 and has only once eclipsed the 100-inning mark in a season.

Obviously, the hope is that if he's healthy he will exceed that number of innings this year. Right now, he's looking great. 

[Althebum82]

Okay, I'll bite on the Brad Peacock reference.  After finishing a competitive year at AAA with Omaha and the Saints in 2022, whatever happened to him this season?  Retired?  Unsigned free agent?  International ball?

[umterp23]

No brainer at the moment and in spring training that he should be pitching every 5th day or 6th depending on days off in s schedule.  Maeda got the spot but didn't have the stamina or strength to be a starter at the onset of the season.  Keep doing what you are doing Ober and spot is yours.  All pitchers will have a bad outing and then all the comments will be send him back down.  Long term that wouldn't be a good thing.

[CRF]

Well...he's a big guy, but I think if you feed him enough...he's sustainable. 

[hitterscount]

He should have been in the rotation out of spring training, where he outpitched Maeda. 

18 IP, 16 K, 6W, 0.98 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, yeah he should stay... not that these stats are maintainable, but he has looked every bit the part when in the starting rotation the past two plus seasons. If he is going to get injured, it might as well be here.  

[bloggymcbloggerson]

17 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins really think he has a chance at next year's rotation, then he should stay, if the plan for next year doesn't include him, move him to the pen now.

what does next year have to do with anything? he's one of their five best right now, and they have multiple guys who'll be free agents at the end of the season anyway. 

[bloggymcbloggerson]

2 hours ago, Althebum82 said:

Okay, I'll bite on the Brad Peacock reference.  After finishing a competitive year at AAA with Omaha and the Saints in 2022, whatever happened to him this season?  Retired?  Unsigned free agent?  International ball?

unsigned and doesn't even appear to have gone to spring training with anyone this year

[Whitey333]

What a strange article.  Talk about over analyzing and creating issues that aren't there.  He was denied a starting spot this spring due to him having an option left and this FO treatment of him.  He's pitched better than both Maeda and Mahle both of which probably won't be here next year.  He's proven he can handle the position and deserves the opportunity to prove it.  He may get injured you say due to his history?  What about Mahle?  He's been on the injury list several times since he was traded here.  I doubt his credibility as a major league starter.

[Otaknam]

Baldelli has been reluctant to let Ober pitch five innings, and sometimes he was even pulled after four. Give him the chance to prove he can start every fifth day and let’s see what happens. He might figure things out against left handed hitters, which will make him tough to face. And he might be past his injury problem, given all the professional training and preventative medical care they get.

[tony&rodney]

Have you noticed that Ober is a tall human playing baseball. Tall players take longer to get in synch for the most part. Tall pitchers often reach their peak in their thirties. That makes Ober a young pitcher.

Ober has looked really good all year and has also not tired very easily. He was very good for St. Paul, despite his disappointment at being cut from the Twins team to start the season.

Should we expect ERA's of less than one per nine innings? Well, no. Ober is exactly where he belongs and could manage to blow away his innings totals without any harm. I'm expecting he is watched for how he commands the zone and finishes his pitches more than any other worries. Ober looks strong on the mound and we may be seeing a tall guy get it together both physically and mechanically this season. At least I hope so.