Here's How to Make Room for Alex Kirilloff

[Hans Birkeland]

There isn't a perfect solution, but his potential is worth shuffling some players around.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

It sucks for everyone when prospects get called up late. They hit free agency in their thirties when in a lot of cases, their performance is already starting to diminish. They get paid less, and there is also less to enjoy in the fan experience when all you see of a guy’s peak career is his late twenties.

Michael Cuddyer is a good example, as he did not become a full-time player until his age-27 season and his defense was atrocious by the time he hit free agency. You especially want to give a young player runway at a young age if they have any chance to be a transcendent talent, and Alex Kirilloff’s hitting ability has been described as such. That said, he is 25 and the sheen over him owes a lot to what is unknown about him. 

Trevor Larnach is a good counterpoint. He’s generally been playing well but we’ve seen the ups and downs of what he can do as a hitter. Pitchers have increasingly attacked him with offspeed and breaking pitches and he has had to make adjustments (though hadn’t he made that adjustment at the start of 2022?). The main point is, if Larnach can hit breaking stuff he will be a good to great hitter in the big leagues.

For Kirilloff, we don’t even know what adjustments he will have to make to reach his uncertain, but probably high, ceiling. Does anyone remember how pitchers attack him? What bad hitting habits does he fall into when he’s healthy? Is he more of a .270/.310/.450 hitter due to an overly aggressive hitting approach? We have no idea.

We have to find out. It’s too far into his career. As soon as he gets through a couple back-to-backs in Triple A, get him up here and get him in the lineup five times a week. That will require some lineup and defensive shuffling. With Byron Buxton continuing to require the DH slot, that means Joey Gallo needs to play center field.

This isn’t conventional, and would result in worse defense in center, at least until Buxton returns to center field. It also would mean fewer at-bats, at least against righties, for Michael A. Taylor, who has been somewhat of a spark plug at the bottom of the lineup while contributing excellent center field defense. But Gallo hasn’t rated badly in center field in his career (zero outs above average, or OAA, in 58 career games), and Larnach deserves to continue his chance to prove himself.

There are some strong opinions about what the Twins should do with their other starting outfielder, but cutting bait with Max Kepler right now would be incredibly unwise, for a couple reasons. One, Kepler is kind of hitting, especially since returning from his IL stint earlier in the month. His slugging percentage is up to .483 on the year after a two-hit showing in Saturday’s loss to the Royals.

Second, the decline in defense going from Kepler to Gallo isn’t major, but it is significant. Kepler is one of the smoothest right fielders in Twins history, while Gallo is just really good. In terms of OAA, Kepler has been nineteen runs above average the past two years, while Gallo has been fairly neutral, albeit with a better throwing arm.

Third, Kepler was kind of hitting last year before his toe injury. His line on June 1st was .260/.365/.440, and while it dipped before the injury occurred, his OPS was still above league average before he went on to post a .466 OPS while playing through a broken toe in August and September. If he’s a league-average hitter, that’s a three WAR player when you factor in his defense. With his club option for 2024, Kepler is basically under contract for two years, 18.5M. That is a tremendously valuable player, if even relatively healthy.

 

The downside to letting Kepler keep starting in right field against righties would be if he gets hurt or falls off even further in performance. But if either of those things happen, the solution would be to install Taylor or Buxton back in center, and move Gallo to right. Problem solved. A much worse scenario would be to give up on Kepler and then see Kirilloff get hurt or not perform, resulting in a lot more Donovan Solano at first base.

So let’s make it happen. Put Gallo in the middle of the field. It would be unfortunate for Michael A. Taylor, and a few more balls might fall in the gaps, but if Kepler, Gallo, and Larnach are going to remain among your top five or six hitters, you need to find a way to keep them in the lineup against righties. Moving Gallo to center also allows the team to gather the data they need to determine what Kirilloff (and Larnach) are going to be for them in this competitive window. Are they foundational pieces, platoon guys or trade bait?

Of course injuries could solve every roster crunch the Twins face and then some. But while it's important to build depth in case of injury, it's also important to find out what kind of players you have. Fortunately for the Twins, the Texas Rangers found out Gallo could play center while trying to work in at-bats for Willie Calhoun and Nomar Mazara in 2019. Hopefully, every one of the Twins' young hitters end up with better careers than those one-tool journeymen, but there’s only one way to find out, and it could turn this team into an offensive juggernaut.

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[miracleb]

You won't see me complaining about getting Taylor fewer at bats.....but I would like to see Buxton doing that by playing (once/twice) per week in centerfield.  THIS will open up DH starts for several of the guys you have mentioned above.  I don't think Gallo is less than Kepler defensively at all.   Kepler has a long track record.......hoping he will turn it around now (28 years old?) is maybe grasping at straws.  I would rather see Kirilloff and Larnach getting those at bats.......

[ToddlerHarmon]

The real solution is Buxton in center, and then Gallo pushes either Larnach or Kirilloff to DH. Taylor and Solano remain bench/platoon options. It is a matter of time before this happens. Right?

If Larnach or Kirilloff cannot perform well enough to start, which may take months to find out, then Lewis, Julien, Wallner, or Martin get a shot, and Taylor and Solano still stay on the bench.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree, the real solution is Buxton in CF but Hans is right.  Gallo in CF until Buxton starts playing there consistently is the best solution to getting Kirilloff INTO the lineup at 1B and keeping Larnach in the lineup in LF. 

[tony&rodney]

Kirilloff is still working his way into prime condition. Hopefully he can play in five of six games next week. He needs to prove he is ready and earn his call up. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff because I believe he will hit for power and average.

AK has a few glitches in his games (every player does). He is prone, like many, to swinging at high pitches that are well above the zone. Additionally, Alex has a tendency to believe he can hammer any pitch. This is similar to Miranda. Kirilloff could be more selective at the plate. The upside is that AK drives the ball with power all over the field. He doesn't need to pull the ball to launch a bomb but he can turn on pitches middle in and crush it to right field.

The bottom line is that the Twins want to see a week or two of consistent play from Kirilloff before they make a decision on him. I'm ready to see him now, but would be surprised if the call comes before May 15.

What happens with the lineup? This has been discussed quite often recently. The team is healthy and we hope it remains that way. Kirilloff = 1B, Kepler  = RF, Buxton = CF/DH, Larnach = LF/RF/ DH, Gallo = OF/DH. Taylor returns to the role he was signed for and plays CF against left handed pitchers and come in defensively late in games or as a pinch runner. 

Who goes? This depends on when Farmer is fully ready to resume his place as the Twins utility infielder. Castro remains until Farmer is healthy and has finished a rehab stint. Gordon likely holds his role (whatever that is) until Lewis forces his way onto the team. This means that Solano goes, despite his solid bat thus far. He just doesn't play a position or bring speed to the team. I prefer the option of 14 position players but we are unlikely to see that decision. Like mentioned by Falvey/Baldelli, among others, it is impossible to know what occurs in regards to injuries or performance between the last day of April and mid May. For now, Kirilloff will need to do his part to force a decision.

[raindog]

Kind of odd to say that Gallo should play CF and then make an argument for Kepler by saying he’s the superior RF. Yeah I know Kepler doesn’t like playing CF but I think they should stop caring about his opinion on that matter. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree. Putting Kepler in CF seems like a better path to the same goal. It’s a tough one though since Taylor has actually played very well. Still, I think Kirilloff is at least a week or two of playing 5 games a week away from being called up. 

[Doctor Gast]

Just because Gallo is pretty good cOF & has played CF doesn't mean he's a good CF or should play there. But give him a try against RHPs so Kiriloff can come back isn't a bad idea.

[dxpavelka]

Wow.  I just read an article on this site advocating for Kep.  I must need a drink.

 

[stringer bell]

Don't know if it's best to move three positions instead of two. Kepler is comfortable in right field, Gallo less so. If Kepler is going to play regularly, keep him in right. 

[Hans Birkeland]

1 hour ago, raindog said:

Kind of odd to say that Gallo should play CF and then make an argument for Kepler by saying he’s the superior RF. Yeah I know Kepler doesn’t like playing CF but I think they should stop caring about his opinion on that matter. 

I'm sure all sorts of variables are at play, mental and physical, but if Gallo is neutral in both positions and Kepler is great in right and neutral in center you maximize the defense with Gallo in center. Or maybe they could do some sort of rotation,

[Brandon]

I think it needs to be a fluid situation.  Buxton should get some games in CF, Taylor should get fewer AB, Larnarch should get some DH time, Gallo should move between 1B, LF, DH, and a few games in RF and CF are probably ok but not necessary if Buxton played enough out there.  Larnarch may also lose a few AB in this scenario.  Solano will also lose playing time as well.  

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

You won't see me complaining about getting Taylor fewer at bats.....but I would like to see Buxton doing that by playing (once/twice) per week in centerfield.  THIS will open up DH starts for several of the guys you have mentioned above.  I don't think Gallo is less than Kepler defensively at all.   Kepler has a long track record.......hoping he will turn it around now (28 years old?) is maybe grasping at straws.  I would rather see Kirilloff and Larnach getting those at bats.......

Max is exceptional in RF! Gallo has been a Gold Glove outfielder and Max hasn’t. There’s no drop-off with Gallo in RF.

There’s no real drop-off in CF with Taylor there - Twins fans think there is because Byron oozes athleticism. Taylor has won a Gold Glove in CF.

Gallo plays a really solid 1B. Solano is mediocre at both 1B & 2B …….shown that over the last week…….he may be the guy that’s expendable. Farmer comes back - Miranda can play 1B v. LH pitching.

The issue I was hoping the author may have some insight on “How to make room for Alex Kiriloff” was not regarding how to pencil him in the line-up it was regarding how to fit him on the 26 man. No such insight here.

Taylor getting any at bats v. RH pitching at the beginning of the year would have been due to no other options. Anyone else playing CF & reducing Taylor AB’s is fine with the Twins. (Gordon or Gallo or Buxton)

Farmer will be back in 1-2, weeks & Castro will go down & we’ll be back at the March 30th, 26 man roster.

How do we fit Kiriloff? Kepler is hot over last dozen games. Gordon is showing signs of coming around & can play 4 positions. Can’t imagine either of them being moved.

It appears we’ll go 17-12 by end of April and are on a 95 game win pace……..good problems to have when you’ve got too many good players!

 

[Hans Birkeland]

31 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The issue I was hoping the author may have some insight on “How to make room for Alex Kiriloff” was not regarding how to pencil him in the line-up it was regarding how to fit him on the 26 man. No such insight here.

 

I think you go with the ol' fashioned phantom IL stint just to give a guy a rest. Maybe Taylor with his back?

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Don't know if it's best to move three positions instead of two. Kepler is comfortable in right field, Gallo less so. If Kepler is going to play regularly, keep him in right. 

If we're gonna question Gallo in right I don't know that I'd even think about center.

 

[High heat]

Need 2 games a week from Buxton in CF and 2 games a week from Gallo in CF and 2 from Taylor.  
 

you can still do the defensive substitutions late in games to get Taylor in CF.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

If we're gonna question Gallo in right I don't know that I'd even think about center.

 

Not questioning Gallo in right at all. Kepler is a defensive asset in right field, particularly at Target Field. I think he’s probably as good or better a right fielder as Gallo, but in center, Gallo might be better. 

[Major League Ready]

44 minutes ago, High heat said:

Need 2 games a week from Buxton in CF and 2 games a week from Gallo in CF and 2 from Taylor.  
 

you can still do the defensive substitutions late in games to get Taylor in CF.

I am looking forward to Buxton in CF 4 days and Lewis 3 days/week.  The way to make room for Kirilloff is to cut Solano.  That's not going to happen unless they are sure of Kirilloff's health.  My guess is Kirilloff is optioned tomorrow and kept in AAA until they are confident he can handle playing 5 or 6 days/week.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

I think you go with the ol' fashioned phantom IL stint just to give a guy a rest. Maybe Taylor with his back?

Agreed - not sure who is going to pull hamstring, the nagging injury! Maybe Solano? Taylor exposes us maybe too much?  Good thought on how to get it done!

[chpettit19]

I think Gallo's ability to play CF is greatly overstated around here. He's played 7 innings of CF since 2019, and wasn't good. He was serviceable there in the 20-teens because he could run. He's not unathletic now, but he doesn't run like he did then. He had a sprint speed of 28 ft/s back then. He's down to 26 now. Basically he was as fast as MAT back then, and now he runs like Miranda. Would you want Miranda's speed in CF? Miranda's sprint speed is 26.2 ft/s this year. Gallo's is 26.3. Putting Joey Gallo in CF on a regular basis would be a disaster. He's a "break glass in case of emergency" CF option now. Putting him in CF wouldn't make them a better team.

[specialiststeve]

Best time to trade Kepler ... is now... he is hitting. Soon to be followed by a dry spell of a month. 1st Let the rook spend some time in the minors to make sure he is good to go. 

[stringer bell]

24 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Best time to trade Kepler ... is now... he is hitting. Soon to be followed by a dry spell of a month. 1st Let the rook spend some time in the minors to make sure he is good to go. 

How many trades happen in the first half of the season before the trade deadline? Secondly and equally in importance, what is the market for a 30-year corner outfielder who has provided league average offense and above average defense?

[tony&rodney]

Kirilloff will play in St. Paul for a couple of weeks for two good reasons: 1) the Twins want to see AK play at an elevated level to show where he is at as a baseball player, and 2) the Twins do not want to interrupt the current flow for a player who still needs to prove himself.

When we hit mid May, Buxton should be able to play centerfield 3-4 days per week. Kirilloff should be on the plane to LA on May 14 if he continues to show what he has shown thus far. AK is that player who can hit for average and power.

 

[Rosterman]

A bit more time at the bag at AAA.

[curt1965]

Kirilloff doesn’t have to prove anything to anyone. If he’s healthy, he is potentially a star. Figure it out front office……….

[Althebum82]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

How many trades happen in the first half of the season before the trade deadline? Secondly and equally in importance, what is the market for a 30-year corner outfielder who has provided league average offense and above average defense?

So far the Yankees have sure looked like a team in desperate need of an outfielder, although more so in LF than RF.  But, for now, they are pinning their hopes on a rookie to be ready to make his mark.  If that doesn't pan out by this time at the end of the month of May, I think they would welcome Kepler in exchange for a not-yet-MLB-ready starting pitching prospect (If they have one) in advance of the deadline.

[Wizard11]

I hope Kirilloff is the star player that we all hope for.  That being said he needs to be able to play 6-7 days in a row before we start cutting or benching players to jam him in.  

As to removing players, Solano was signed to be a right handed bench bat.  Castro is only 24 years old with an option year left and plays good defense with speed.  Gordon can be used all over the field and has speed though perhaps limited base stealing prowess.  Micheal A Taylor is playing great defense, using his speed, and has an OPS over .700 which is great for his role.

I am sure Kirilloff appreciates all the fans who are concerned for his future earning power and feel his credentials belie any need to earn his way on the roster by extended healthy performance.  

His skill set as a left handed corner bat is abundant at the moment and moving other players off the roster with different roles will not logically make this team better.  He will get his shot before long as the unfortunate reality is one of the left handed corner bats will get hurt eventually.

This team is clicking right now.  Winning is the goal, not creating a career path for a much hyped (on TD) minor leaguer.  He was drafted 7 years ago and that suggests a bit of muted optimism. That said I do hope he is as amazing as the hype. That would be great.

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think Gallo's ability to play CF is greatly overstated around here. He's played 7 innings of CF since 2019, and wasn't good. He was serviceable there in the 20-teens because he could run. He's not unathletic now, but he doesn't run like he did then. He had a sprint speed of 28 ft/s back then. He's down to 26 now. Basically he was as fast as MAT back then, and now he runs like Miranda. Would you want Miranda's speed in CF? Miranda's sprint speed is 26.2 ft/s this year. Gallo's is 26.3. Putting Joey Gallo in CF on a regular basis would be a disaster. He's a "break glass in case of emergency" CF option now. Putting him in CF wouldn't make them a better team.

Watching Gallo leg out a triple earlier in this homestand, perhaps his sprint speed might be underrated. I won’t dispute the numbers and Gallo might not be a viable choice in center field. We shall see. I think the die is cast that Alex Kirilloff will be optioned unless a position player injury occurs. 

[Althebum82]

5 hours ago, Althebum82 said:

So far the Yankees have sure looked like a team in desperate need of an outfielder, although more so in LF than RF.  But, for now, they are pinning their hopes on a rookie to be ready to make his mark.  If that doesn't pan out by this time at the end of the month of May, I think they would welcome Kepler in exchange for a not-yet-MLB-ready starting pitching prospect (If they have one) in advance of the deadline.

Rookie couldn't even finish one game due to an injury.  Nobody feels sorry for the Yankees, but I bet that they will be motivated to find someone outside of their own organization and the Twins may just be the right partner:  Yankees' Jake Bauers makes incredible catch vs Rangers but suffers injury (msn.com)

[Karbo]

13 hours ago, High heat said:

Need 2 games a week from Buxton in CF and 2 games a week from Gallo in CF and 2 from Taylor.  
 

you can still do the defensive substitutions late in games to get Taylor in CF.

I like this idea but IMO Kepler would better serve in CF than Gallo. But I really like what Gallo has done at 1B. Not so sure I would jump at the idea of moving him off there .