Alex Kirilloff and Embracing the Unknown

I think you send him down to give him extra time to get comfortable with the wrist and prove health. If he needs another month to ramp up to playing every day, better to do that in the minors than reducing our MLB bench by 1 every other day while he rests.

And I could be wrong about this, but he's also accrued a lot of service time on the injured list. I think if he is sent down for > 15 days he won't accrue a year of service time and would push FA back by a year.

44 minutes ago, TL said:

I think you send him down to give him extra time to get comfortable with the wrist and prove health. If he needs another month to ramp up to playing every day, better to do that in the minors than reducing our MLB bench by 1 every other day while he rests.

And I could be wrong about this, but he's also accrued a lot of service time on the injured list. I think if he is sent down for > 15 days he won't accrue a year of service time and would push FA back by a year.

 

Kirilloff’s service time going into 2023 was 1.141. He’s already accrued 30 more days of ML service time while on the IL, so he only needs about ten days more on the major league roster to pass two years of service time. If he is optioned on May 1, the service time accumulation will stop and 15-30 days in AAA would likely keep him from being arbitration-eligible this offseason. So long answer shorter— no sending him down certainly wouldn’t be about free agency and team control, but an option could benefit the Twins financially, by avoiding AK being classified as a Super 2, and arb eligible. 

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm guessing a month in the minors would keep him from Arbitration.

 

Disclaimer: Don't trust my math. 

It varies from year to year, but somewhere between 2-120 and 2-130 is where the line has been drawn. Arraez qualified at 2-121 year before last. A month, putting his time at 2-111 would almost certainly be enough for the Twins to avoid arb. 

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Reasonable guess by me but if it was the price is right. I wouldn't be running on to the stage.  

I can see it--"Riverbrian, come on down!"

23 minutes ago, roger said:

I don't care about arbitration, service time or anything else talked about above.  I believe this kid will be the real deal and I want him crushing the ball for the Twins at Target Field and on the road.  Now!

I am a fan of AK and really believe (as you do) that if healthy, he is the real deal. As the OP points out there are unknowns about his health and the possibility exists that he won't ever reach his full potential. There isn't an easy way to put Kirilloff on the active roster and see how it plays out. Byron Buxton is currently a full-time DH, Joey Gallo has been terrific and both Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach have above-average OPS+ numbers at this point. 

6 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

The unasked question here is who do the Twins drop to get Kirilloff on the 26 man roster? Castro is the easiest answer to that question. It appears that they are committed to Gordon and Solano in the infield, at least until Farmer returns.

Do they finally give up on Kepler instead?  He as actually right now hitting at above career averages, and still playing elite defense.  This would not seem to be good timing for this move.

So, let's send Castro packing and give Kirilloff the chance to goose up our offense instead of the offense of the AAA team.

Service time considerations are a sad reason to not make the right move.  But, I suppose ultimately baseball a business with business choices to consider.

Sigh.

 

 

 

 

I don't think service time issues are the only reason why Alex Kirilloff or any player gets optioned, but it certainly can be a factor. A similar case is Edouard Julien....his current optional assignment will guarantee that he won't be credited with a full year of service time and be under team control through 2029. In another case, the Twins kept an undeniable major league relief pitcher (Duran) on the roster for the entire year and now will have him under team control through 2027.

4 minutes ago, roger said:

True, true and true.

Doesn't diminish my desire, and hope, that this kid will be back and 100% healthy, soon.

Although they are all lefties, could play three of Gallo, Larnach, AK and Keps every night with each getting every fourth game off.  Could even add a few days of DH for that group when Buxton gets his scheduled maintenance day or begins playing a few games in center.

Agreed, but optioning Castro or DFAing either Gordon or Solano reduces the right handed hitters and defensive flexibility. The most likely scenario is that one of perhaps eight guys goes on the Injured List in the next week or so and Kirilloff is recalled in their place. 

I wonder if Kirilloff will play today against the Red Wings. I'd bet against it. 

I hope Kirilloff comes up and absolutely crushes the ball.  However, I think he is best served spending a little more time in St. Paul and crushing the ball there.  He has been injured for the better part of two years and injuries are scary to come back from.  Much of it just involves healing and rebuilding muscles and stamina.  But an important part of the recovery is also mental.  It is vital that he can become totally trusting of his wrist holding up and also able to play without even thinking about it.  That will be better achieved with the reduced pressure of AAA baseball.  Keeping him down for a month or so will help him avoid another setback and help him completely become the player we all think he can be. 

11 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

And if he is the real deal and he's healthy he'll win every arbitration hearing. So I think he's a candidate for extension if things go well.

This is the answer. I believe they will wait to bring him up for a week or two as they want it to be the last time they move him from the 26 man roster. If they believe the wrist is behind him he's the ideal candidate for an extension that buys out arbitration. He'll never have a hearing if the wrist is good.

Another reason to wait is that hitting has warmed up in the last week. The gapping hole he would fill is gone. No urgency so take the time to make sure he's right. I have no issue with a week or two more at AAA.

Service time manipulations may or may not play in situations. Miranda might have been ready to step in on Opening Day last year, especially based on his preceding year in the minors, but I think service time was factored in to give him no shot in Spring Training. Royce Lewis was sent down, which coincidentally would rule him out from getting early arbitration status, but there were other factors in both cases. I don't think any team wants young players with high ceilings sitting on the bench accruing service time. 

As far as whether to promote Kirilloff at this point, I would say that as a fit 25-year old, the only concern would be the wrist and if swinging a bat against 95 mph fastballs doesn't bother him, he should be in the major leagues. Paparesta has seemed to say that the medical end of his ramp up is complete. Let him play here and now if he is one of the best 13 position players.