Nick Gordon Deserves Another Chance

[Adam Friedman]

Nick Gordon's slow start is putting him - and the Twins - in a tricky place.

Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins took a chance on Nick Gordon with the fifth pick of the 2014 draft out of high school, the Twins were betting on his speed, hit tool, solid arm, and baseball pedigree eventually making him their everyday shortstop. At times, it has looked like he could become a major contributor, but a slow start this year has meant his Twins’ career is at a crossroads. After a long and winding path to the majors, his time in Minnesota could be nearing an end, but he deserves a chance to show that he can contribute to a winning ballclub, as he did for most of 2022.

Health Struggles 
Gordon’s minor league career was up and down. He was always above average as a hitter, but he didn’t really show the star ability the Twins hoped he would. Gordon’s lack of power meant he struggled to sustain success throughout minor league seasons. The star breakout the Twins hoped he’d show when they drafted him never really happened, and he fell down prospect lists accordingly. 

Beyond that, Gordon had chronic gastrointestinal issues that made gaining enough weight extremely difficult. In 2020, as Gordon finally seemed close to making the majors in the shortened season, Gordon had an elongated and severe case of Covid-19. He continuously tested positive, so he was unable to get to the alternate site with the team. Covid-19 also compounded his gastrointestinal issues, and they could not get them under control. He had no appetite, causing him to lose 15 pounds. He couldn’t really eat or sleep, and it was a very difficult time for his career- missing what seemed to be a pivotal season. 

Despite his prior underperformance and horrible medical struggles, Gordon finally made it to the majors in 2021. That season could have been better for Gordon, as he posted a 79 wRC+- meaning he was a 21 below-average offensively. Gordon split his time between the outfield and middle infield and was a mostly acceptable defender at all positions. While he wasn’t productive, after everything he went through and after being written off by most, playing in the major leagues was a massive accomplishment for Gordon. 

2022 Breakout
As incredible as it was that Gordon made it to the majors, the tenacity that fueled him to work through his on-field and health struggles helped Gordon finally be a productive player with his bat. 

It took a while for Gordon to click in 2022, just like it did for his entire career to click. He had an 80 wRC+ in both April and May, and it seemed he might be designated for assignment. Being out of options, his time with the Twins appeared to be nearing its end. But the Twins stuck with him, and he kept working with hitting coach David Popkins, and in June, things changed. 

Gordon posted a 127 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ in June and July, followed by a sensational 151 wRC+ in August. This offensive explosion was shocking and one of the stories of the season. Beyond that, Gordon's bat was critical to the Twins maintaining their lead in the AL Central in August. His batted-ball data was great, so it seemed unlikely the production was just smoke and mirrors. The Twins and their fans hoped that his breakout would carry over to the 2023 season.  

2023 Struggles and Playing Time
To start the 2023 season, Gordon was on the strong side of a platoon at second base, filling in for Jorge Polanco. The Twins seemed to believe in him in that role, hoping he’d repeat his solid 125 wRC+ against righties from 2022 - or even improve on it. But that just has not happened- although this could be somewhat related to a high ankle sprain he suffered in spring training.

Gordon has basically only faced righties, and his hitting has been atrocious. He’s gone 6 for 52, with just two doubles one walk, and a triple, good for a hideous .324 OPS. But it’s only been 52 at-bats, and he started slowly last year, too, although he wasn't this bad. Further, his expected metrics indicate he has been extremely unlucky. His expected batting average based on the quality of his contact is .254, a whopping .139 points lower than his actual .115 AVG. 

He hasn’t hit for enough power or walked enough, so he would still be a below average hitter, but not one of the worst in baseball. In a typical situation, teams would let a player work through these struggles - especially if they had a really solid season in the year prior. Teams, especially the Twins, know that they shouldn't take so much from a small sample size. 

But Gordon has not received this benefit of the doubt. He has started just two games in 13 days, including his 4/26 start against the Yankees. As much as Twins fans like Edouard Julien, it was striking that he got opportunities to platoon against righties over Gordon, despite barely ever playing in AAA in his career. It’s also notable that Max Kepler (who admittedly is getting on track) and Jose Miranda have been bad too, but the Twins have run them out there just about every day they’ve been available. Given that Gordon was their best left-handed slugger last year (a low bar), it’s strange he’s not given the same chances to get right. 

What’s Next for Gordon?
The Twins will soon face roster crunches, with Kyle Farmer and Alex Kirilloff coming back from their injuries in the coming weeks. Gordon is out of options, so he would need to be designated for assignment to make room for one of them. If DFA’d, he’s unlikely to clear waivers, so that would be the end of his time with the Twins. 

It’s likely that Willi Castro would be optioned before Gordon is DFA’d, especially given that he can go to AAA without clearing waivers. But if the Twins remain healthy (a big if), there will be two roster spots needed for Kirilloff and Farmer. If Gordon is not playing, it makes little sense to keep him around.

Gordon has worked so hard to produce at the big-league level, and he provided energy and enthusiasm when the Twins needed it. He also enthusiastically learned to play the outfield to provide needed positional flexibility.  The Twins letting him go without giving him a chance to get his bat going again would be a mistake. Hopefully, they will work to get him back on track.

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

I have been firmly on the Nick Gordon band wagon. He’s had three months about 200 plate appearances worth of very good hitting, and around 500 plate appearances worth of AWFUL hitting. Not just bad….

at some point, you gotta cut bait.

im rooting for the guy. I want G-Cinco to succeed in the worst way, but it’s looking pretty bleak.

[Muppet]

Time to let him go. He’ll get many more opportunities and more playing time with a lower team. He could be one of the best players on the As or Royals. But he’ll always be the last bench guy on the twins. 

[Craig Arko]

The lack of options is a real killer here. My gut hunch is he will be passed through waivers when Farmer comes back. Have to see what happens then.

[stringer bell]

It is all about hitting. If Nick can find the groove as a hitter, he can carve out a role either with the Twins or another club as a platoon player. If their hitting is similar, Willi Castro is the better option as a utility player. Castro is a switch hitter and plays a competent third, short, second and outfield. If Gordon doesn't hit right handers at an above-average level, he really doesn't have much value to the Twins. 

Gordon is extremely vulnerable to left handed pitching and isn't the Twins' preferred backup at either shortstop or third base, even with Kyle Farmer on IL. There is already an oversupply of left handed hitters in the corner outfield, so getting Nick plate appearances there is unlikely. Michael A Taylor's relative success in center also limits his chances.

[roger]

Whether they act when AK/Farmer return or have an injury or some roster engineering, I don't see him remaining a Twin beyond summer when Lewis returns.  Although I expect him to be moved, I believe the Twins should be able to trade this young man for some type of prospect.  

[Doctor Gast]

Gordon's best shot is OF, that's where he plays best. The addition of Gallo & Taylor plus hanging unto Kepler & Larnach was hot with Kiriloff ready to come back. has really put a crimp on  Gordon's opportunity to make it in the OF. I really like the contributions that Gordon has done in the OF the last 2 seasons but because of what FO has done & not done Gordon's Goose is cooked. So I'd try to find a suiter for him but how he has been playing I doubt that there'll be any. Yet if he's DFAed he be gone, no doubt about it. Cave was gotten right away, if nobody else would claim him DET would. 

[JD-TWINS]

24 minutes ago, roger said:

Whether they act when AK/Farmer return or have an injury or some roster engineering, I don't see him remaining a Twin beyond summer when Lewis returns.  Although I expect him to be moved, I believe the Twins should be able to trade this young man for some type of prospect.  

So Gordon has started horribly. Last year he hit .289 with 27 doubles after May. We are 27 games in and Taylor is due to collapse offensively v. RH pitching - Buxton is starting to thrive at DH & he’s in the line-up 90% of the time while not playing CF. He’s our CF v. RH pitching - just needs a little momentum.

CC is hitting .195.

To me, no doubt that they option Castro before DFAing Gordon. Farmer displaces Castro. Castro isn’t hitting any better than Gordon & doesn’t have the success in ‘22 that Gordon can point to.

Kiriloff coming up is the difficulty. Larnach has his spot on the 26 man & he’s leading the team in RBI…….as crazy as it seems…….they may slow roll Kiriloff’s return expecting an inevitable injury that would allow hanging in to Nick. Other even crazier idea is they option Larnach for a couple weeks to buy time (doubtful). One way or another, they are going to try & get to July to at least trade Gordon with a prospect for some return.

Tough to DFA a guy that in ‘22 had 28 doubles - hit .279 - 8 HR & plays 2B - SS - LF - CF, in his first, truly healthy season………..He’s had 52 AB’s in ‘23.

[MGX]

The best players need to play. With that said Gordon played well over an extended period of time last year & this year he hasn't seen much playing time. He's had all of 53 PA's this year after proving himself valuable in nearly 500 PA's last year.

The one thing holding him back is plate discipline. If he figures that out he'll be a productive player, if not then it will be tough for him no matter where he goes as pitchers just won't give him good pitches to hit. 

If a decision needs to made in the near future IMO it would have Castro before Gordon.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I really like Nick Gordon.  I think he's a fun player to watch and has been valuable to the team.  That being said, I think his clock has about run out with the Twins.  His immediate competition is Castro, who is a better defender than he is but who also has an option remaining, so Castro goes to St. Paul.  Then it gets much more difficult.  Gordon is one of those utility players who doesn't play particularly outstanding defense anywhere, but can be passable in a lot of positions, plus he hits from the wrong side (for the Twins) of the plate.  I don't think that Farmer or Solano are going anywhere before Gordon based on fielding and handedness, plus they are both hitting much better than he is.  Barring injury elsewhere on the team, Gordon probably needs to go when a second player of the Kirilloff/Farmer group comes back to the team. 

Supposing that they manage to hold onto Gordon until mid-summer, the Twins will once again face a roster crunch when Lewis is back, with the potential of Julien/Lee getting a shot as well.  Lewis is certainly a better player than Gordon, with much more offensive and defensive potential.  The reality is that keeping him now is just delaying the inevitable.  For the moment, he's an OK guy to have around since we don't really have anyone who is better, healthier, and in less need of development than him.  Hang onto him as long as you can, but don't shed too many tears when he needs to move on, especially if he is moving on because there are better players pushing him onward.

A DFA'd Nick Gordon will undoubtedly be claimed by someone pretty quickly.  He will likely find his hitting stroke again and will likely have an OK rest of the season with more consistent playing time.  He's never going to be a star, but he could carve out a solid MLB career in the right situation. Good for him!  He deserves that chance, but it seems unlikely that it can come with the Twins. Smile for him and wish him well.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Castro isn’t hitting any better than Gordon & doesn’t have the success in ‘22 that Gordon can point to.

Castro isn’t hitting “well” but I think a strong case can be made that Castro is indeed hitting better than Gordon.

Pick your stat, Gordon’s K rate is lower, but that’s the only one that paints a rosey picture. My favorite wRC+ has Castro 18% below league average (bad) and Gordon 118% below league average. That’s impressively bad.

[tony&rodney]

Baseball is tough enough when a player is a regular, but youngish guys need opportunities to grow their game. I don't know where Nick Gordon fits on the Twins team either now or in the future. I do think he could become a star player with an opportunity. I cannot understand any talk of sending down Trevor Larnach. It is a little befuddling as to why Gordon has not gotten any playing time. I was pretty sure he would be in the lineup today, but nope. Maybe tomorrow.

[IndianaTwin]

Interesting that folks want to dump an outstanding fielder in Kepler, based on his only having one truly good season, a 123 OPS+ which happened to be in his age 26 season. Beyond that, he's had a 109 OPS+ in the Covid year and five seasons between 93 and 98.

Yet there's loyalty to Gordon, who had a 112 OPS+ in his age 26 season and has had another 269 plate appearances that work out to an OPS+ just over 60. He's nowhere as good defensively as Kepler, though he can play multiple positions.

I'm just not seeing it. 

[Rosterman]

He deserves every chance popular, but Nick is now a bench player. He can improve his worth to the Twins, of course, by just improving play. The Twins have invested in him. The team's options are to give him more or less playing time, hope his value increases and they can trade him, and keep fingers crossed that a likely candidate to replace him sooner rather than later is in the system.

I would be keeping a close watch on Michael Helman. who is coming off an injury to start the season but looks to be hot in St. Paul. At 27, Helman is the same age as Nick. Is he more than a prospect to be a bench guy (excelling at second base and the outfield, including center). He shows power, Some good speed.

Until Farmer comes back and the Twins need to make a decision, Gordon is safe.

But the future with the Twins needing to find positions and playing time for names like Julien, Lewis, Lee and Martin, Gordon may be expendable, sooner rather than later.

[Nine of twelve]

The Twins are approaching a point where someone is going to have to be cut from the major league roster. It appears that for this season the Twins should be in more of a win-now mode than a plan-for-the-future mode. That means keeping players who are doing well now. I agree that Gordon deserves another chance. But what could be best, both for the Twins and for Gordon, is for that chance to happen with another organization. Getting a low-level prospect in a trade for Gordon is a deal we should make because DFAing him gets him claimed by another team with the Twins getting nothing in return.

[Beast]

He doesn’t deserve anything.  He’s been awful.  He’s already been afforded multiple opportunities other players don’t get due to his draft position and family name.

Its so strange to me.  I don’t know the root of the blinding bias, but it’s clearly there.  Numerous people here want to jettison players who have much better and longer track records, and provide more value, but have this unshakable loyalty to one of the worst players in the major leagues right now. He literally has no redeeming skill that should keep him on a major league roster right now. It would be one thing if he had defensive value,  but he doesn’t.

[Brandon]

For some reason I cant comment on Cody Pirkls article on Headrick so I will add it here.  He should get a start if the opportunity arises as while 3 appearances and 8 1/3 innings is a small sample size.  He has shown he is capable in all 3 outings and seems up to the task of making it through 5-6 innings.  It is definitely between him and Varland if Mahle skips a start.  Either way he will get more innings out of the pen with the job he has done so far.

[chpettit19]

My guess is Gordon has until Buxton starts playing CF some, and Kirilloff is called up, to show he can hit again. At that point it's DFA and hope for a trade, or likely lose him on waivers if they can't get a lottery ticket out of anyone. Gordon was scorching hot in August last year, but fell apart again in September. He's had 3 incredible months of hitting, but not much of a track record beyond that. I hope he gets a chance somewhere, and I hope he succeeds, but I don't see a role for him on the Twins for much longer.

[Jocko87]

I was really excited to see what he could do fully healthy from the gastrointestinal stuff. It looked like he got over it last year and this would be his first healthy year at full fighting weight. Unfortunately it's not happening for some reason.

Castro does everything he does, plus has an option. He's been doing it much better so far as well. That option is likely to get Gordon a slightly longer runway as they won't cut him when Castro can be optioned for Farmer but the reckoning is coming.

I wonder what the trade package with both Kepler and Gordon could fetch? If we believe in our high level prospects they will both need to make room.

[joefish]

A good guy. But I won't miss him.

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, stringer bell said:

There is already an oversupply of left handed hitters in the corner outfield, so getting Nick plate appearances there is unlikely. Michael A Taylor's relative success in center also limits his chances.

I think the biggest "obstacle" for Nick this year is the lack of playing time in center field, which of course is due to the presence of Taylor. Gordon seemed comfortable in center, but I think a lot less so at second base, where he is getting more of the playing time this year. I'm also a fan of Gordon and I think he will shine will regular playing time at a single position, but it's looking that will be less likely with the current Twins roster, plus players like Farmer, Lewis, and Kiriloff coming back from the IL. As others have said, Gordon is becoming more of the odd man out on the Twins this year. I could see him becoming a fan favorite in Oakland. 

[jorgenswest]

17 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Castro isn’t hitting “well” but I think a strong case can be made that Castro is indeed hitting better than Gordon.

Pick your stat, Gordon’s K rate is lower, but that’s the only one that paints a rosey picture. My favorite wRC+ has Castro 18% below league average (bad) and Gordon 118% below league average. That’s impressively bad.

I am not sure if any of these are close to stabilizing, strikeout rate would stabilize earliest and possibly meaningful. The batted ball data from statcast stabilizes with fewer plate appearances. Gordon’s xBA and xSLG are 255 and 405 based on the number and quality of balls put in play this year.

[mikelink45]

Baseball has never been a place where emotions control cuts and rosters.  We need the best players.  We got rid of Killebrew and he finished with KC,  Kaat was let go because Griffith thought he was done (he wasn't) and he went to the White Sox. Cutting a player is a necessity when you have better option.  Gordon has been given a good chance and last year he did well, but that should not be the argument for keeping him.  

I would drop Castro then Gordon for Farmer and AK.  Then comes Lewis a month or two away and a new problem arises, just as our shuffling of pitchers has caused us to use the DFA and IL and any other method at our disposal. 

[John Belinski]

Sometimes a player that is just playing poorly has to be replaced. It appears the Twins have other players that will help them more than Gordon.  He has no future with the Twins so maybe he will catch on with a team that needs him. Why any team would claim him is hard to understand since it appears he can not hit over .200. The Twins have too much talent to hold on to him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins could always trade 35 year old Donnie Solano and keep Gordon.

[Nashvilletwin]

First, if I’m Gordon, I’d welcome a new start somewhere else to get a chance to play regularly and exit this environment.

However, second, there is no chance I’d give up on Gordon at this point. Castro goes first. Solano second (the guy cannot field to save his soul), and Kepler third.  Those three will not be here next season. Gordon has more upside at the plate than those three, and except for Kepler in the OF, is a better fielder with more positional flexibility.

Third, the Twins may want to have him next year when Buxton still is not playing CF and Martin, Gallo, and there three players mentioned above are all gone.

The conundrum is how to get him more ABs to get on track.  It’s hard to see that happening.  So, going back to the first point, if I were Gordon, I’d be looking for a new home where I could jumpstart the rest of my career.  Get out of here - find a place where I will get a chance to show last summer/fall was the hitting, versatile spark plug of a player he really is.  Maybe get some appreciation too.

[stringer bell]

It's nice to have a guy who can play both infield and outfield and Nick Gordon has done that acceptably. That said, I take issue with the statement above that Nick is a better fielder than Willi Castro. Rocco prefers Willi at both third base and shortstop, for sure. In a game recently, he put Castro in left when he could have used Gordon. Willi Castro is more versatile and probably a better overall fielder than Gordon. I've said this for a couple weeks--if the Twins are looking at Castro and Gordon for their value as versatile utility guys, Castro is the more valuable player. Nick Gordon demonstrated a hit tool last year that probably plays as a platoon starter with most teams in MLB. If that is a fluke, Nick will have a hard time staying in the major leagues. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins could always trade 35 year old Donnie Solano and keep Gordon.

They play different roles on the team. Solano is likely replaced by Lewis when he's good to go. But keeping a lefty who can't crack the lineup frequently (he is in there today) against righties vs keeping a righty who starts every game against lefties doesn't really solve the Gordon problem.

[mnfireman]

Farmer, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, Wallner, and possibly Martin mean the end of Castro, Solano and Gordon this year, and probably Polanco and Kepler next year. Tough choices will have to be made.

[MGX]

I like Gordon & think he did prove something last year. The disappointing start (only 53 PA's) this this year is because he hasn't improved his plate discipline. If that doesn't improve pitchers won't give him anything good to hit. On the other hand if he were to improve that area he should be a productive player with the Twins or elsewhere.