5 Reinforcements Who Can Make a Pivotal Impact for the Twins This Year

[Nick Nelson]

One of the most intriguing aspects of the 2023 Minnesota Twins is how their roster is set up to receive progressive waves of key reinforcements over the course of the campaign. 

With the team off to a strong start, these late arrivals stand to play a critical role in sustaining and bolstering the team's success as the marathon MLB season plays out.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jeffrey Becker, Dave Nelson–USA TODAY Sports

We all know that injuries and attrition are inevitable during the baseball season. This reality has been made painfully clear to Twins fans. So it comes as a nice change of pace here in 2023 that players joining the fold, rather than exiting it, is a storyline worth looking forward to.

The Twins have already lost several players to the injured list in the early weeks, and they're certain to lose more in the months ahead. But there are a handful of difference-makers in the wings, either working back from injury or waiting their turn, who are capable of offsetting some of this inevitable attrition, while adding strength to a team that has already jumped out to a strong start in the Central.

While the timelines aren't firm, we can confidently expect all five of the players below to join the Twins at some point this spring or summer, barring injury or the unforeseen. Each has the ability to make a substantial impact on the team's fortunes, going well beyond your typical role player or wild-card rookie.

They are listed below in order of estimated arrival, starting with a former All-Star shortstop whose return is growing imminent.

Jorge Polanco, 2B
ETA: Late April

Polanco was slowed in spring training by lingering knee soreness, so the Twins and trainer Nick Paparesta decided to take it slow with him, employing an extended build-up approach that spilled over into the regular season. Polanco doesn't appear to be all that far behind, however – he initiated a Single-A rehab stint shortly after the season started, and is now six games in.

The 29-year-old seems to have reached a good place physically, evidenced by the fact he played a full game for Fort Myers on Saturday night, then started and played a full noon game on Sunday. He's in line for a move up to Triple-A in the near future, and from there, a return to the majors could happen within days.

With the Twins offense struggling to find traction, Polanco's bat could be a godsend. He has a 111 career OPS+, including 117 since 2019, and even last year while slowed by the knee issues, Polanco's production was 16% better than average. His switch-hitting stick with patience and power can revitalize the top of the lineup, which has been noticeably short on weapons in his absence.

Alex Kirilloff, 1B
ETA: Early May

Recovering from a second straight offseason wrist surgery, Kirilloff is a little behind Polanco's timeline but not by much. Both players started back-to-back games at Single-A for the first time over the weekend, and Kirilloff is starting to get the regular reps he needs following an offseason and spring disrupted by his gradual rehab.

Given the circumstances, I assume the Twins will opt to use the entirety of Kirilloff's 20-day window, which leads right up to May 1st. But barring a setback or reassignment, he'll need to be up to the majors by then, giving him five months to try and finally establish himself at the major-league level.

We've seen flashes of what AK is capable of during his time with the Twins, but never for a prolonged period thanks to the recurring wrist issues. Time will tell whether those are resolved, but when he's right Kirilloff is legitimately capable of being the best hitter in the Minnesota lineup – a power-hitting, run-producing force in the heart of the order. Or: exactly what this team could use right now.

It's reasonable to be skeptical of getting that version of Kirilloff, and to wonder if the last-ditch procedure will deliver the desired results after so many starts and stops. But the fact that Kirilloff is already well into his rehab, ahead of the expected schedule, and playing quite well – he has a .900 OPS through four games – sure seems promising.

Bailey Ober, SP
ETA: May

Unlike Polanco and Kirilloff, health is not the factor holding Ober back from the majors, but rather an intentional abundance of starting pitching depth for the Twins. Minnesota's rotation success has been the story of their season thus far, and the presence of Ober helps you believe they can keep their front-to-back excellence clicking long-term.

The addition of Pablo López late in the offseason was bad news for Ober, ticketing him to open in the minors despite his proven big-league track record. But it was great news for the Twins, precisely because it shifted Ober to Triple-A, where he's now serving as stellar rotation depth, ready to step in should anything go amiss.

The Twins have been fortunate so far in terms of rotation health, with mostly everyone looking strong and healthy. I say "mostly" because Kenta Maeda has experienced some fatigue – not too surprising or concerning at age 35 after a year off – and was skipped for his latest turn. Ober probably would've been the fill-in had the decision had been made a day earlier. Instead it was Louie Varland, another notable depth piece in this rotation mix.

Varland pitched well, and he adds confidence to this unit's outlook, but not to the same degree as Ober, who's fully proven himself as at least a mid-rotation starter in the majors and looked flat-out fantastic in spring training.

Ober's timeline is a little harder to peg than others on this list because unlike the others, it's dictated by matters outside of his control. He's simply waiting for an opportunity to arise. 

With that said, I have to think one way or another Ober will be up by the end of May if he's healthy and throwing well. I can't envision the team leaving a 27-year-old Ober sitting in the minors for anything approaching half the season. 

Royce Lewis, UTIL
ETA: June

In his brief major-league debut last season, Lewis showed everything that made him a first overall draft pick and fixture near the top of prospect rankings for years. He was an electric force on the field, making plays with his athleticism and smashing drives with his bat. He looked capable at shortstop while flashing a skill set that can play almost anywhere.

It all came to an end too soon, of course, but Lewis is now in the late stages of his lengthy rehab trail from a second straight ACL tear. While nothing is a given in that situation, all signs have been positive. Lewis looked mostly unencumbered while taking part in workouts during spring training, and was cleared to run bases and take live batting practice by the end. 

At the time, the Twins said they hoped to have Lewis playing in minor-league games around mid-April, and while I've not heard anything on him specifically of late, I would guess we'll receive an update on his next milestone soon. 

Because he is on the 60-day injured list, Lewis is unable to return before June regardless of how well he takes back to the field. However, the Twins set a 12-to-13 month timeline when he underwent surgery on June 21st of last year and he sure seems to be tracking toward the front end of that. 

If this pace holds, the Twins might get Lewis for a majority of this season, providing a jolt for the second half that could prove highly consequential.

Brooks Lee, INF
ETA: July

Unlike everyone listed above, Lee has yet to appear in the major leagues. His impact is entirely theoretical in comparison to those more established commodities. He's also in just his full professional season. How much can you realistically expect from the kid?

Normally I'd say, not that much. And it's why I didn't include other near-ready prospects on this list like Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Austin Martin – even though I could envision any of these talented youngsters coming up and making a real difference. It's just hard to take for granted that'll happen instantly, for reasons made evident during the brief MLB glimpses from Julien and Wallner. It's a very difficult transition!

Yet I can't help but set that instinct aside when I look at Lee. There's something different and special about him, and it was very noticeable in spring training, where he piled up MLB shortstop reps as the youngest player in camp, handling it all with aplomb. 

Last year he worked his way to Double-A during a two-month pro debut, and now he's back there at age 22, batting .323 with an .898 OPS through his first eight games. 

There are a variety of different ways Lee could slot in for the Twins, even as he continues to play shortstop exclusively at Wichita. His switch-hitting bat is the real attraction, and the club will be hard-pressed to keep it bottled in the minors all summer if they feel he can help their contending cause.

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[umterp23]

I'm not confident that Kiriloff is positioned to be impactful in May with the big club. While it is nice to read that he has played back to back games in sunny FL, day to day grind, facing top end pitching will test 2 things: Wrist stamina and Mental toughness that he wrist is fine.  Time will tell but I fear that he may not be the guy long term.  Hope I am wrong.

I like Julien for sure, but Polanco needs to be the 5 game a week guy at 2nd base and allow Julien to blossom at AAA.  Solano has proven to be a valuable asset along with Farmer, so Julien is injury protection for others and I am okay with that.

Lee will be AAA guy later this year and may get a taste of the big club late in year, but he is most likely a year away from really being a guy that is a 26 man roster guy.

Brings me to Lewis, not hearing about game reps officially for him isn't very concerning since it is about 12 month recovery, but to think when 60 days is up to be big club ready for daily grind isn't realistic.  He needs time to play almost everyday, listen to what is body is telling him and see how ready he is.  Timing is in his favor if, Kiriloff isn't ready and Gallo is playing OF majority of the time.  If that is the case, Miranda can move back to 1st and put Lewis at 3rd where is range isn't quite needed for 2nd base or OF (don't need to see him OF anytime soon again).

 

[HrbieFan]

This team is deep like I have never seen before. We traded away 3 great bat prospects last year, trade Arraez and still have 5 bats in the minors I wouldn't be afraid to bring in. Need the stars and SPs to stay healthy to make this a really fun year 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I find it fascinating that Ober is 8 months older than Pablo Lopez. But yeah, hopefully he can stay healthy and hopefully he gets a shot because either he earned it (which is probable) and not because of injuries. 

[wabene]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I find it fascinating that Ober is 8 months older than Pablo Lopez. But yeah, hopefully he can stay healthy and hopefully he gets a shot because either he earned it (which is probable) and not because of injuries. 

Wow that's nuts. This year he really needs to prove he can hold up. 

[mikelink45]

I look forward to Polanco and I hope he is back to what he can be - and does not get another set back.  That is the problem with our bodies when they start to break down.  Kiriloff is another of the concerns and I have less faith in his reaching that earlier potential, just as I do not really see Buxton as the superstar everyone hopes he will be.  Thus we move to Lewis and hope his body healed well. As someone with too many operations I can tell you that arthritis loves the opportunity to prosper.  Ober another of our really good players who has been injured too often, but deserves to be up when healthy.  Which brings me to Lee who is the player of the five I have the highest level of hope for.  

So let's see them all beat the odds and have some healthy and productive years. 

[stringer bell]

This list is why I'm not overly concerned about the Twins' offensive struggles this spring. It also is why next year when Seth profiles the longest-tenured Twins, the top two from this year will most likely be gone.

Kirilloff, Lee, Lewis and Julien could provide a lot of offense for the remainder of the decade. 

[arby58]

It is encouraging to see this kind of depth in the Twins organization. I think this gets overlooked in some of the angst associated with trading Arraez - while there probably isn't a player who is going to hit .317 among this group (although Julien might get close), there are enough other skills they bring (power, speed, defensive ability) that may make some of them a credible replacement for him. Most of them are also infielders, and you can only play four of them at a time. Trading for a top end pitcher like Lopez makes a lot of sense from that standpoint (and also Mahle). 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, Your outstanding and encouraging article creates these questions: 1) Who will be sent down, traded or released when Gallo, Polanco, Kirilloff and Lewis are ready? Unfortunately, some injury or injuries will probably dictate this, and it may be that the FO will just have to cross that bridge when they come to it, but I really have enjoyed watching Farmer and Solano contribute to the team. I think possibly too much has been expected from Gordon this year, so he may be on the bubble. Castro has contributed due to his ability to play anywhere on the field, but his numbers are not high enough to stick when some of the others return to the team. Then there is always Julien, Garlic and Wallner to consider. Julien needs to play a full year at AAA and cut down on his SO's and improve his fielding at 2B. I think Lee will play the rest of the year at AAA, with a possible September call up to give him some brief experience in the big leagues, in preparation for 2024 on the Twins. But who will be demoted, traded, or released? What if the Twins have a healthy Lewis, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Julien, Lee, and Miranda in the spring of 2024. 2B and SS would have Correa and (hopefully) Polanco. 2) Where do the other 5 infielders play? 3B, 1B and Util. ? Looks like another trade of a good Twins' IF'er for a 2024 starting pitcher may be the answer. And don't forget ERod in a couple of years. 3) A final question: Why aren't the national prospect gurus as excited about the Twins' prospects as we at TD are? 

[Dan In Real Life]

Kiriloff is the difference maker for the 2023 Twins, one way or another. Without prime Kiriloff, they're a division contender. With something at least very close to prime Kiriloff, they're a serious pennant contender.

I'm pulling for the kid, but I'm skeptical he'll make it back. It makes me kinda sad to think there's even odds the wrist holds him back from ever being an impact MLB regular. I hope he proves all of us wrong.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

This list is why I'm not overly concerned about the Twins' offensive struggles this spring. It also is why next year when Seth profiles the longest-tenured Twins, the top two from this year will most likely be gone.

Kirilloff, Lee, Lewis and Julien could provide a lot of offense for the remainder of the decade. 

Don't forget Correa for 6 years. That's really outstanding.

[JD-TWINS]

I hope Ober gets a nod at some point, he deserves it - injury to others is his path forward though, so I’m not really excited about that. Top 3 guys in rotation are in for the year regardless of performance (if healthy) so his spot starts would be for Mahle or Maeda. If he pitches well it makes it difficult not to displace one of them.

I think Kiriloff is out of options so he comes up in May or has to go on IL again, my assumptions. Gallo at 1B has worked. I really don’t like our probable move if Kiriloff comes up……..Larnach down. Some of this depends upon Farmer’s short-term health but when the original 26 man is healthy, Larnach is odd man out. That is unless Kepler “pulls a hamstring” or something.

Lewis - unless we’re really struggling, mid-July at the earliest. Can’t rush this after two injuries of same knee..

Lee - roster expansion guy in September.

Polanco - can’t be soon enough in April!

I do think 4 guys above are all rostered to start ‘24 & Polanco may get moved this year at dead-line. Only if Lee/Julien/Lewis are truly ready! Jorge is a good veteran to keep & have around for playoffs but don’t see him in the ‘24 line-up.

[stringer bell]

Regarding the rehab of Kirilloff and Polanco--Kirilloff played seven innings of first base and seven innings of outfield on back-to-back days. Polanco played a full game at second base and DHed the following afternoon FWIW, Twenty days rehab for Polanco end around April 26, so he'd have to be added to the active roster at that point. Kirilloff's twenty days run out around May 1, but he could be optioned at that point. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I hope Ober gets a nod at some point, he deserves it - injury to others is his path forward though, so I’m not really excited about that. Top 3 guys in rotation are in for the year regardless of performance (if healthy) so his spot starts would be for Mahle or Maeda. If he pitches well it makes it difficult not to displace one of them.

I think Kiriloff is out of options so he comes up in May or has to go on IL again, my assumptions. Gallo at 1B has worked. I really don’t like our probable move if Kiriloff comes up……..Larnach down. Some of this depends upon Farmer’s short-term health but when the original 26 man is healthy, Larnach is odd man out. That is unless Kepler “pulls a hamstring” or something.

Lewis - unless we’re really struggling, mid-July at the earliest. Can’t rush this after two injuries of same knee..

Lee - roster expansion guy in September.

Polanco - can’t be soon enough in April!

I do think 4 guys above are all rostered to start ‘24 & Polanco may get moved this year at dead-line. Only if Lee/Julien/Lewis are truly ready! Jorge is a good veteran to keep & have around for playoffs but don’t see him in the ‘24 line-up.

I think it's Maeda who we are talking about. Mahle's stuff is too good, barring health.

[wsnydes]

I'm a bit skeptical that we'll see the Polanco of old, but I do think he'll be a positive add when he comes back.  If nothing else, it adds depth and pushes bench players back to the bench instead of starting them.

For me though, Kirilloff is going to be the biggest linchpin in how this offense goes.  If he can come back healthy and produce from 1B, I think that's a big boost to the offense.  I think this offense will go as far Larnach and Kirilloff will take them.  

[DJL44]

It is an open question whether Varland has passed Ober on the depth chart.

[PatPfund]

Great article! I would dearly love to see Polanco healthy and back; it would return our quality backups to backups, and I strongly suspect it would mean occasional days at DH, and the occasional return of Byron to CF if he up to it (making the lineup stronger in two ways).

I've mostly put Kirilloff in a mental refrigerator more to preserve my own sanity than because I know how things will turn out (I don't). But your words, and the fact he is playing regularly and hitting has a thaw going; I'm starting to dream about how a hale Alex and that lovely swing could transform the lineup, and like Polanco, there is a clear regular spot for him at first (and a corner OF slot).

The others are definitely something to look forward to, and while injuries may clear space, at some point the Twins are going to have to make deliberate room for some or move them via trades (can't make those mid-season moves without chips of your own), or the newbies are going to have to force the issue by beating out veterans. Which is as it should be.

[DJwessmix]

No one, including Nick, has even mentioned Chris Paddack. Isn't he due to return this Summer? Will he and Ober (barring becoming injury replacements), create a situation where Twins put one or two of their expiring contract veterans on the trading block for relief help and starting pitching pipeline depth?

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, DJwessmix said:

No one, including Nick, has even mentioned Chris Paddack. Isn't he due to return this Summer? Will he and Ober (barring becoming injury replacements), create a situation where Twins put one or two of their expiring contract veterans on the trading block for relief help and starting pitching pipeline depth?

It's a good point and an interesting discussion. They signed Paddack for 3 years/$12.6 million, so he isn't a free agent until after the 2025 season. Gray is a UFA after this season, but the way he's pitching, unless they totally go off the rails, they're not moving him. Probably Maeda (don't expect much in return) and maybe Mahle if Ober and Paddack are deemed ready. That said, neither of them are going to get you a ton back as 2024 UFAs.

[Jocko87]

29 minutes ago, arby58 said:

It's a good point and an interesting discussion. They signed Paddack for 3 years/$12.6 million, so he isn't a free agent until after the 2025 season. Gray is a UFA after this season, but the way he's pitching, unless they totally go off the rails, they're not moving him. Probably Maeda (don't expect much in return) and maybe Mahle if Ober and Paddack are deemed ready. That said, neither of them are going to get you a ton back as 2024 UFAs.

Highly unlikely that we see Paddack this year.  Its his second Tommy John and with the Twins track record for caution plus the below quote from Paddack after signing the extension would all indicate hes not back this year.  The depth helps here also, if there are so many injuries that he slots right in the season is probably lost already.  Full health to start 2024 camp.

“It’s a blessing,” Paddack said. “You put yourself in my situation, it takes a lot of pressure off of me. There’s a lot of weight lifted off of my shoulders. I don’t have to be that hero that has to come back in August or September that potentially could be risking my career [by] coming back early from an injury like this.”

[Nick Nelson]

47 minutes ago, DJwessmix said:

No one, including Nick, has even mentioned Chris Paddack. Isn't he due to return this Summer? Will he and Ober (barring becoming injury replacements), create a situation where Twins put one or two of their expiring contract veterans on the trading block for relief help and starting pitching pipeline depth?

I considered adding him but unlike these guys, I consider his return more of a bonus than an expectation. If he comes back I'm guessing it'll be as a reliever in August or September. He could be helpful but I don't seem him on then same level of potential impact.

For 2024? Different story.

[Ricky Vaughn]

I agree with all of these except Lee. If we see him up in the middle of the season it will be because something went terribly wrong. I doubt very much he will be put on the 40 man roster this year.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope Lewis plays CF and 3B exclusively during rehab.....

[August J Gloop]

I would peg the chance of Brooks Lee appearing in MLB before September somewhere between 'fat' and 'zero'. He probably won't hang around AA much past May if he keeps up his current pace, but will need to work on 3B & 2B and rake at St Paul to get up to Target Field. He's clearly a talent and will be making the team start to consider plans. Of course a Correa injury changes the calculus, but let's not think about that. 

If we see him at St Paul taking reps all over the diamond, then we can start getting excited. an INF of Lee (2B), Correa, Lewis (3B, let's watch that ACL on DP turns) and Miranda (1B) seems like a real offensive boon and good defensively as well. Although, this year, I'd probably vote for Miranda staying at 3B, Gallo at 1B and Polo at 2B. Bux in CF, Lewis in LF and Larnach in RF. It's cool to have so many options. I probably will have changed my mind by the time I hit submit. 

[RpR]

This is wishful hoping.

Hoping Polanco comes back like he was, hoping Kirilloff,  Lewis , much less Lee,  do not turn out like Julien, or worse like Hicks or Rooker.

Twins rookies have not had any where near the ability so many Nostradamus seers have said they would be.

The ability to endure (not end up on injured list) is also a main part of a rookies stats.,, one where Gordon has show greater ability.

If the title said rookies who -- might help -- that  -- could be true, but to say they are some sort of sure thing, wishful thinking.

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Why aren't the national prospect gurus as excited about the Twins' prospects as we at TD are? 

The national writers look at prospects from a more distant view, without the interest in how a player helps their favorite club. Prospects are very difficult to forecast but those with physical skills stand out and are noted. Byron Buxton was an example of someone rated highly no matter the initial results. Emmanuel Rodriguez gets love this year.

Players that show a specific skill also receive some print. Julien hitting for a high average with power, walking, and stealing bases with average speed put him on the back half of lists. Brooks Lee is seen as a guy who is capable of being a decent starter but not an all star because he does so many things well but does not have notable athletic talent.

Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff have been injured often and missed too many games to retain their former high status. Among the players mentioned in the post, these two (RL & AK) have the greatest probability of becoming all stars if they break through to play every day because they possess the skills and talent to impact games. 

[weitz41]

Polanco and Lewis are the ones I expect to make the biggest impact when they're ready. Kirilloff coming off a career threating injury, seem like setting us up for disappointment, so I'm going to give him a pass on this season. Has a great year, great bonus, spends a long time in AAA, ok that seems possible. Ober will get his chance when one of the starting 5 needs a breather (hopefully not injury related) Lee hopefully gets a Sept call up.

Polanco and Lee are the two I think they make room for however they can. The others are going to have to wait on an injury or perform so well that they force their way onto the roster. I might slide Julien to the (injury/ performance) list as well.

[August J Gloop]

22 minutes ago, RpR said:

This is wishful hoping.

Hoping Polanco comes back like he was, hoping Kirilloff,  Lewis , much less Lee,  do not turn out like Julien, or worse like Hicks or Rooker.

Twins rookies have not had any where near the ability so many Nostradamus seers have said they would be.

The ability to endure (not end up on injured list) is also a main part of a rookies stats.,, one where Gordon has show greater ability.

If the title said rookies who -- might help -- that  -- could be true, but to say they are some sort of sure thing, wishful thinking.

 

Turn out like Julien? Assuming you're not trolling, how do you mean? 

To say they're surely going to fail is no different than being sure they're going to go great. There's no doubt that the prognosis for AK is bad. I can't imagine anyone is actually counting on him ever contributing again until he's had a few months of health after these terrible surgeries.  Polo has had one season since his suspension where his OPS+ has been below 110. If he's healthy, there will be good offense there. Lewis has done nothing to suggest he isn't going to be a valuable player. Aaron Hicks had 4 straight really good seasons with the Yanks, and now injuries are getting him.  Even Rooker is raking in Oakland right now. 

[weitz41]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

 A final question: Why aren't the national prospect gurus as excited about the Twins' prospects as we at TD are? 

This is something I've been wondering about as well. Sometimes it feels like they are snake oil salesmen...

 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

...  That is the problem with our bodies when they start to break down.... 

Tell me about it -- glaucoma procedure last Wednesday and colonoscopy scheduled for Thursday. Encouraging Mrs. IT to get her knee checked out. 

Hoping to avoid an IL stint, with a potential return to Twins Daily in time for the Friday night Game Thread...