5 Reinforcements Who Can Make a Pivotal Impact for the Twins This Year

[Nashvilletwin]

Most of these players - Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Varland, Ober, maybe even Larnach and Kiriloff (less likely Lee) will be up and down this year based on injuries and performance.

Gallo, Solano, Martin, Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, Mahle and Maeda are probably sticking around for the season - maybe one or two get moved around the deadline, but I’ve got the under on two.  Castro is the only one who could be asked to head to St. Paul.

The good news is that a) we are winning with this strategy and b) all of them except Farmer should be gone next year. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, Dan In Real Life said:

Kiriloff is the difference maker for the 2023 Twins, one way or another. Without prime Kiriloff, they're a division contender. With something at least very close to prime Kiriloff, they're a serious pennant contender.

I'm pulling for the kid, but I'm skeptical he'll make it back. It makes me kinda sad to think there's even odds the wrist holds him back from ever being an impact MLB regular. I hope he proves all of us wrong.

Per the excellent summary from Greggory Masterson (linked below), Kirilloff has an option. Given their orientation to caution and if there's general health at the big league level, I suspect they'll use it to get more 20 days of rehab, unless he's beating down the door and playing pretty much daily.  

MLB Players with One Option Remaining
These players are currently on the active roster (or injured list) and can still be sent down this year. However, if they are, they will have no options in 2024. The team could be a little more hesitant to use that final year than they would otherwise.
Willi Castro, Gilberto Celestino, Jhoan Duran, Kyle Farmer, Kyle Garlick, Alex Kirilloff, Caleb Thielbar

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Nice reminder Nick of the depth we have & soon to have. It pained me to see Ober not staying with the club after a great ST. But we know if something happens Ober will step in admireably. As much as it's hard to wait for Polanco & Kiriloff it'll be well worth the wait. As with Lewis in June, it's comforting to know that Lewis doesn't have to be rushed but yet if he's tearing it up in AAA right away. It'll be challenging in what to do with Solano. As well as with Lee, there is no hurry to bring him up this year. But if he's tearing it up at AAA this Sept. and we have a great shot in the post season, a switch hitting INFer would be very nice.

IMO Paddack won't have any impact on the Twins this year. I see him in only the minors working to come back from his 2nd TJ if at all.

Like Tarheels said next season will be very interesting w/ all the potential impact players ready to emerge.

[RpR]

28 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

Turn out like Julien? Assuming you're not trolling, how do you mean? 

To say they're surely going to fail is no different than being sure they're going to go great. There's no doubt that the prognosis for AK is bad. I can't imagine anyone is actually counting on him ever contributing again until he's had a few months of health after these terrible surgeries.  Polo has had one season since his suspension where his OPS+ has been below 110. If he's healthy, there will be good offense there. Lewis has done nothing to suggest he isn't going to be a valuable player. Aaron Hicks had 4 straight really good seasons with the Yanks, and now injuries are getting him.  Even Rooker is raking in Oakland right now. 

Turn out like Julien? Assuming you're not trolling, how do you mean?  -- Assuming you are not trolling --  B.A. .118,  fielding skills lacking.

You figure it out.

Aaron Hicks had 4 straight really good seasons with the Yanks, and now injuries are getting him.  Even Rooker is raking in Oakland right now. -- HIcks had two good years where his B.A. was more than 35 points above the Mendoza line, his fielding numbers on average are no better than Garlick's.

Rooker's fielding numbers are like Sano at third base.

Well then I guess the Twins should have never let them go, they would have made the team so much better.

I did not say they would fail , I said that the title saying they would be a success was wishful thinking without proof.

The articles headline say they would be some great success -- wishful thinking;  that they might be OK, better than average, possible , not a guarantee.

 

[Tyler from Oregon]

It really feels as though this is the last chance for Kirilloff. Have to imagine that, if he's unable to make it back and remain healthy enough to stick with the team, he'll have to stop being someone the organization continues to put development money into. He has the talent and the right attitude, and it's such a shame to see the wrist keeping him from  his full potential. At some point you need to shift the resources towards someone who has more stability. 

I also believe that Polanco is gone next year, and I hope he can contribute this season. Another example of a guy who has so much skill and potential to be an All Star every year, and has just been extremely hampered by injuries. Hoping he can return and have one last big impact on this team.

[Trov]

As high as I am on Lee, I would be a little shocked if they call him up this year.  There is 2 ways it happens, both require Lee to be raking down in minors.  First, injuries of many ahead him just make it needed because we are that far down depth chart, not ideal.  Second, is he is raking so much and we are having issues with at least one spot in infield.  I doubt there is a situation where Lee forces his way, and others are doing well at MLB level. 

[August J Gloop]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

Turn out like Julien? Assuming you're not trolling, how do you mean?  -- Assuming you are not trolling --  B.A. .118,  fielding skills lacking.

You figure it out.

Aaron Hicks had 4 straight really good seasons with the Yanks, and now injuries are getting him.  Even Rooker is raking in Oakland right now. -- HIcks had two good years where his B.A. was more than 35 points above the Mendoza line, his fielding numbers on average are no better than Garlick's.

Rooker's fielding numbers are like Sano at third base.

Well then I guess the Twins should have never let them go, they would have made the team so much better.

I did not say they would fail , I said that the title saying they would be a success was wishful thinking without proof.

The articles headline say they would be some great success -- wishful thinking;  that they might be OK, better than average, possible , not a guarantee.

 

I just wanted to check that you seriously were using 4 games to draw a conclusion on a hitter who has shown great promise and is 24 years old. It's good to have a baseline for any conversation. 

 

[August J Gloop]

4 minutes ago, Tyler from Oregon said:

It really feels as though this is the last chance for Kirilloff. Have to imagine that, if he's unable to make it back and remain healthy enough to stick with the team, he'll have to stop being someone the organization continues to put development money into. He has the talent and the right attitude, and it's such a shame to see the wrist keeping him from  his full potential. At some point you need to shift the resources towards someone who has more stability. 

I also believe that Polanco is gone next year, and I hope he can contribute this season. Another example of a guy who has so much skill and potential to be an All Star every year, and has just been extremely hampered by injuries. Hoping he can return and have one last big impact on this team.

Good to remember this is the first major injury outage for Polo. It might be a big one that has damaging impacts on his skills, but he has shown great durability until now. 

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

I just wanted to check that you seriously were using 4 games to draw a conclusion on a hitter who has shown great promise and is 24 years old. It's good to have a baseline for any conversation. 

 

This is not the time for the Twins to be the equivalent of AAA for rookies from St. Paul.

If Gordon was not in a massive slump, Julien would not be here, but it is better to let Castro figure his problem out rather than bring Julien up to fail. 

As nice as his first hit and home run were against NY, probably bad because of the let-down that followed, that has to play with one's mind.

I do wonder how many rookies come up, do very well, but then sink with each passing year , like Jake Cave; compared to how many come up, perform sub-average but get better with each passin year.

[roger]

Another great post, Nick, you nailed it.

Interesting discussion.  Over the coming weeks we should see Gallo, Polo, Farmer and AK return.  Where will those roster spots come from?  Julien, Garlick, Castro and hmmmmm?  That last one is gonna be interesting.

There may be other injuries opening a spot and they may play some short-term roster engineering.  But when it comes time to actually cut bait, I see Gordon as being the odd man out.  Two reasons.  First, is his bat as good as it appeared last summer?  His start to this year would question that.  And second, there are three or even four middle infield prospects on the horizon who all could become stars.  That means Gordon is less valuable long-term to the organization.  

I know he doesn't have options and I doubt they would DFA him.  But as we approach summer, wouldn't be surprised a bit if Gordon is traded or part of a trade.  Now what they do when Lewis is ready is a bigger concern.  But we have at least two months to speculate about that.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Tell me about it -- glaucoma procedure last Wednesday and colonoscopy scheduled for Thursday. Encouraging Mrs. IT to get her knee checked out. 

Hoping to avoid an IL stint, with a potential return to Twins Daily in time for the Friday night Game Thread... 

I have a major surgery May 3 - each year get a new class in physiology and medicine.

 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Turn out like Julien? Assuming you're not trolling, how do you mean?  -- Assuming you are not trolling --  B.A. .118,  fielding skills lacking.

You figure it out.

Aaron Hicks had 4 straight really good seasons with the Yanks, and now injuries are getting him.  Even Rooker is raking in Oakland right now. -- HIcks had two good years where his B.A. was more than 35 points above the Mendoza line, his fielding numbers on average are no better than Garlick's.

Rooker's fielding numbers are like Sano at third base.

Well then I guess the Twins should have never let them go, they would have made the team so much better.

I did not say they would fail , I said that the title saying they would be a success was wishful thinking without proof.

The articles headline say they would be some great success -- wishful thinking;  that they might be OK, better than average, possible , not a guarantee.

 

All but one player on the list has played in the majors and 3 are established big-leaguers. I don't think there's any doubting Royce's ability based on what we've seen. The "proof" is already there. 

Lee is the only untested rookie on the list and as mentioned, I view him in a different light than guys you mentioned like Julien, Hicks, and Rooker (who never appeared nearly as high on consensus top prospect lists). Different class.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Tell me about it -- glaucoma procedure last Wednesday and colonoscopy scheduled for Thursday. Encouraging Mrs. IT to get her knee checked out. 

Hoping to avoid an IL stint, with a potential return to Twins Daily in time for the Friday night Game Thread... 

IT - Best of luck to you as you fight glaucoma and as you are checked out by a colonoscopy And best of luck to Mrs. IT for her knee. The last colonoscopy I had, the surgeon walked into the operating room and asked me how I was doing. I said : "I'm fine, how are you this morning?" The surgeon then proceeded to tell me: "I'm not doing too well. I was up all night drinking." LOL. True story. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

This is not the time for the Twins to be the equivalent of AAA for rookies from St. Paul.

If Gordon was not in a massive slump, Julien would not be here, but it is better to let Castro figure his problem out rather than bring Julien up to fail. 

As nice as his first hit and home run were against NY, probably bad because of the let-down that followed, that has to play with one's mind.

I do wonder how many rookies come up, do very well, but then sink with each passing year , like Jake Cave; compared to how many come up, perform sub-average but get better with each passin year.

Sometimes you bring guys up for a couple weeks just to let them experience the SHOW. When they are really needed the 2nd or 3rd time up, they aren’t awestruck. Mr Julien is case in point……….next guy to get a taste will probably be Mr Lee.

[IndianaTwin]

6 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

IT - Best of luck to you as you fight glaucoma and as you are checked out by a colonoscopy And best of luck to Mrs. IT for her knee. The last colonoscopy I had, the surgeon walked into the operating room and asked me how I was doing. I said : "I'm fine, how are you this morning?" The surgeon then proceeded to tell me: "I'm not doing too well. I was up all night drinking." LOL. True story. 

Did you tell him that you were as well? Only that it was Miralax. 

I'd have been headed for the door. 

[ashbury]

32 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The surgeon then proceeded to tell me: "I'm not doing too well. I was up all night drinking." LOL. True story. 

True story as to the conversation taking place, I hope.  Not a true story he was telling you. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

53 minutes ago, ashbury said:

True story as to the conversation taking place, I hope.  Not a true story he was telling you. 

He was making fun of me, because I had been up much of the night drinking special fluid, and dealing with the necessary results,  so I could have the colonoscopy that morning. 

[h2oface]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I find it fascinating that Ober is 8 months older than Pablo Lopez. But yeah, hopefully he can stay healthy and hopefully he gets a shot because either he earned it (which is probable) and not because of injuries. 

I often see Ober grouped with "the young reinforcements", or something like that. And I always think, the guy is not young, and has yet to last a majority of any season on the field. Maybe this is the year. 

[stringer bell]

Lots of pessimistic Kirilloff posts on this thread. I was thinking the same when he didn't make the active roster out of spring training, but that he's rehabbed for about 10 days without a setback and has progressed to playing on consecutive days tells me that he's doing well. I'm more optimistic than I've been since he had his surgery. I do agree that if he can establish himself as a better than average hitter and fielder at first base, it can move the needle on the Twins chances to reclaim the Central and succeed in the playoffs.

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Lots of pessimistic Kirilloff posts on this thread. I was thinking the same when he didn't make the active roster out of spring training, but that he's rehabbed for about 10 days without a setback and has progressed to playing on consecutive days tells me that he's doing well. I'm more optimistic than I've been since he had his surgery. I do agree that if he can establish himself as a better than average hitter and fielder at first base, it can move the needle on the Twins chances to reclaim the Central and succeed in the playoffs.

And we get word just that Kirilloff is moving on to St. Paul!!

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Dan In Real Life said:

Kiriloff is the difference maker for the 2023 Twins, one way or another. Without prime Kiriloff, they're a division contender. With something at least very close to prime Kiriloff, they're a serious pennant contender.

I'm pulling for the kid, but I'm skeptical he'll make it back. It makes me kinda sad to think there's even odds the wrist holds him back from ever being an impact MLB regular. I hope he proves all of us wrong.

"Prime" Kiriloff?  Ain't quite sure what that is.  He's a career .251 hitter with 11 career home runs.  Projects to 17 home runs over 162 games but also that it will take three years for him to get to 162 games.  Not holding my breath,

 

[wabene]

20 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

"Prime" Kiriloff?  Ain't quite sure what that is.  He's a career .251 hitter with 11 career home runs.  Projects to 17 home runs over 162 games but also that it will take three years for him to get to 162 games.  Not holding my breath,

 

Projects? You are going to project his performance based on stats from when he was playing through an injury that required surgery? Did you take into account his pedigree and performance in the minors when healthy? Yes I agree we don't know what prime Kiriloff will be but if he does get his wrist strong he could be a player. Time will tell, there is no sense in dire predictions. 

[jkcarew]

Lee not realistic at all. Polanco, Kirilloff, and Lewis will make a crowded infield more crowded. What are you doing with Solano, Farmer, Gordon, Miranda?

If the Twins contend into the second half, Lee comes up only in the event of multiple long-term injuries…and only to take someone’s job and play every day. If the Twins DON’T contend, I could see a fire sale, and then bringing him up.

And if they love him as much as they say they do, it doesn’t matter in the least whether he comes from St. Paul or directly from AA. (Buxton came to Twins directly from AA, for instance…not uncommon at all for the top guys.)

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

"Prime" Kiriloff?  Ain't quite sure what that is.  He's a career .251 hitter with 11 career home runs.  Projects to 17 home runs over 162 games but also that it will take three years for him to get to 162 games.  Not holding my breath,

 

37 games at AAA with an 1.145 OPS is prime Kiriloff.  This is a different class as well.  He earned every bit of patience he is getting and winning the bet gets you the L/H 3 hole hitter between Correa and Buxton for the next 4+ years. 

I'll wait.

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, wabene said:

Projects? You are going to project his performance based on stats from when he was playing through an injury that required surgery? Did you take into account his pedigree and performance in the minors when healthy? Yes I agree we don't know what prime Kiriloff will be but if he does get his wrist strong he could be a player. Time will tell, there is no sense in dire predictions. 

And you're going to project that he's somehow going to magically put that all behind him............      He is what he is until he ain't.

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

37 games at AAA with an 1.145 OPS is prime Kiriloff.  This is a different class as well.  He earned every bit of patience he is getting and winning the bet gets you the L/H 3 hole hitter between Correa and Buxton for the next 4+ years. 

I'll wait.

Seems like you've got little choice.  Meanwhile, while you wait, your squad's on pace to score 638 runs.

[wabene]

31 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

And you're going to project that he's somehow going to magically put that all behind him............      He is what he is until he ain't.

No I'm not projecting anything. It is your dire projection I'm pushing back on. "He is what he is until he ain't" Which is he, the injured guy who's stats you quoted or the guy blowing up AAA that Jocko mentioned? I don't know, but neither do you. 

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Seems like you've got little choice.  Meanwhile, while you wait, your squad's on pace to score 638 runs.

This is true, but those guys in the 2 and 4 hole have to hit too.  He's always hit when healthy at a very high level.  If this procedure doesn't work we may be screwed and he may go the way of so many promising prospects before him.  Meanwhile, we aren't waiting for a Ben Revere type to bloom.

He will probably stay at AAA for awhile and not come up until he's raking again.  I'm fine with that as it helps with the roster crunch issue as well.  A month from now if he's OPS .900+ and driving the ball to left center we will forget we had this discussion.  If not, maybe he's a tantalizing trade piece mid year.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And you're going to project that he's somehow going to magically put that all behind him............      He is what he is until he ain't.

Well, he did have surgery to fix it....so maybe? 

[jkcarew]

The 'catch' with Kirilloff is that for him to be productive, a needle-mover in the 3-5 spots...he has to come with power. And the injury (even in the 'repaired' state) seems like one that could possibly negatively impact his power...even while maintaining his bat-to-ball skills. For now, I'll just be happy that it looks like we're going to get to find out.

His floor (in a scenario where he is 'healthy'), is still probably someone that helps the Twins lineup. At least the 2023 lineup. But, yes, the jury is very much still out on whether he can be healthy ENOUGH to be a difference-maker in the middle of the order.