5 Reinforcements Who Can Make a Pivotal Impact for the Twins This Year

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This is true, but those guys in the 2 and 4 hole have to hit too.  He's always hit when healthy at a very high level.  If this procedure doesn't work we may be screwed and he may go the way of so many promising prospects before him.  Meanwhile, we aren't waiting for a Ben Revere type to bloom.

He will probably stay at AAA for awhile and not come up until he's raking again.  I'm fine with that as it helps with the roster crunch issue as well.  A month from now if he's OPS .900+ and driving the ball to left center we will forget we had this discussion.  If not, maybe he's a tantalizing trade piece mid year.

A month and a half from now if we're discussing him not being healthy we probably won't remember this discussion either.

 

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well, he did have surgery to fix it....so maybe? 

AGAIN

 

[August J Gloop]

On 4/19/2023 at 7:03 AM, dxpavelka said:

Seems like you've got little choice.  Meanwhile, while you wait, your squad's on pace to score 638 runs.

After last night, they're on a pace to score 693 runs, surrender 486 and win 99 games. Which would be 9 or 10 games under their pythagorean expectation based on the runs. That does track, since they're currently 1 game under the expectation. Safe to say we all know which game it was.

I think we can cool it with the 'on a pace' stuff, since single games still play pretty heavily into the pace. Heck, yesterday EJ was a failure. Today his OPS+ is 121, with a pace for 46 homers and 70 singles.

Several key contributors have hit way below career averages. It can (and should) be argued that Solano, Gallo, Vazquez and Jeffers have been better than career based expectations. Julien's contributions weren't figured in, so that makes 5 people giving more than you could expect. Maybe Larnach is right around where you might expect. Kepler and Taylor are definitely around where most would think. But Bux, Miranda, Correa and Gordon? Way below. The offense will improve just through regression and some of these reinforcements.

The pitching probably will decrease a little because of the same. However, P Lopez and J Ryan have added to their arsenals so improvement is very likely sustainable. The other three have been solid throughout their careers. While I think 99 might a big number, we are looking at what would (if healthy) should be a 90 win team this year.

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

After last night, they're on a pace to score 693 runs, surrender 486 .....

The pitching probably will decrease a little 

Last year the Dodgers had the best runs-against total in the majors with 513.  So yeah, pitching probably can be expected to regress.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

After last night, they're on a pace to score 693 runs, surrender 486 and win 99 games. Which would be 9 or 10 games under their pythagorean expectation based on the runs. That does track, since they're currently 1 game under the expectation. Safe to say we all know which game it was.

I think we can cool it with the 'on a pace' stuff, since single games still play pretty heavily into the pace. Heck, yesterday EJ was a failure. Today his OPS+ is 121, with a pace for 46 homers and 70 singles.

Several key contributors have hit way below career averages. It can (and should) be argued that Solano, Gallo, Vazquez and Jeffers have been better than career based expectations. Julien's contributions weren't figured in, so that makes 5 people giving more than you could expect. Maybe Larnach is right around where you might expect. Kepler and Taylor are definitely around where most would think. But Bux, Miranda, Correa and Gordon? Way below. The offense will improve just through regression and some of these reinforcements.

The pitching probably will decrease a little because of the same. However, P Lopez and J Ryan have added to their arsenals so improvement is very likely sustainable. The other three have been solid throughout their careers. While I think 99 might a big number, we are looking at what would (if healthy) should be a 90 win team this year.

 

Some of those offensive number will improve.  Some will also regress.  Especially those far outpacing career based expectations.