Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[mickeymental]

schoop and buxton finished 12th and 18th in the 2017 american league mvp vote. dozier finished 11th. crazy as hell.

[Aerodeliria]

Heller's book Catch 22 just popped into my head. You know management wants to win because winning brings in fans and fans bring in money, but to get there you have to pay someone somewhere some money so you can start winning, and that's the catch; so, instead, aim at mediocrity and hope for a .510 winning percentage. You can pat yourselves on the back and say, "We did OK and who knows what next year, or the year after that will bring?"

 

The Central Division by all indications will be incredibly weak in 2019, so why aim for 2021 or some other mystical year when all the explosive bats now hidden in the minor league happen to align with all of the cannon-like pitching arms that are hidden there? Teams do win while developing players, don't they?

 

You don't have throw away every prospect, but do spend some cash to show the fans that there is at least a speck of concern about winning.

 

Sorry, this just irritated me for some reason. I'm sure I'll get over it like I always do.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Heller's book Catch 22 just popped into my head. You know management wants to win because winning brings in fans and fans bring in money, but to get there you have to pay someone somewhere some money so you can start winning, and that's the catch; so, instead, aim at mediocrity and hope for a .510 winning percentage. You can pat yourselves on the back and say, "We did OK and who knows what next year, or the year after that will bring?"

 

The Central Division by all indications will be incredibly weak in 2019, so why aim for 2021 or some other mystical year when all the explosive bats now hidden in the minor league happen to align with all of the cannon-like pitching arms that are hidden there? Teams do win while developing players, don't they?

 

You don't have throw away every prospect, but do spend some cash to show the fans that there is at least a speck of concern about winning.

 

Sorry, this just irritated me for some reason. I'm sure I'll get over it like I always do.

Will Falvey or Levine play Milo Minderbinder in the movie adaptation?

[USAFChief]

I dont view standing pat as a strategy. It's the opposite of a strategy.

 

And it certainly does nothing to move the Twins toward the "sustainable" goal I keep hearing from Falvine.

[killertwinfan]

In general I like the strategy, but I am also not excited about 2019.  If neither Schoop or Cron pan out then it won't be long before Rooker and Gordon are up.  I think if the thought is for these guys to play their way onto the roster you need better players in those positions so that Rooker and Gordon are really challenged.  Also, I would do the same for 1B and CF.  The infield scares me. I expect Adrianza to get 500 AB next year.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

The frustrating part to me (as a fan) is that the Brewers rebuilt so much quicker - with less baseline talent. So yes, it is possible. The Brewers of all teams. The never won anything Wisconsin Brewers. The Twins really need to get things figured out quickly or Target Field could be a ghost town by 2020-2021.

[killertwinfan]

You put a lot of effort into a pipe dream.  But I do like it. 

So rather than just voice my feelings on yet another "Wait Until You See These Young Guys We Got Coming Up" season...

 

Filed under "Here's a Thought" knowing full well the opinions on Machado signing with the Twins have been discussed ad nauseam (and which I agree is a pipe dream) here's a look at what could happen should he sign, just to spite all of us mighty spiters

 

But first let me try to explain things happening in the hopes to avoid too many questioning replies

 

1) Attempt was made to keep 2019 payroll at $115M - Why you may ask? Because it's less than last year and leaves some room for adjustments to stay below $120M (my hypothetical 2019 max payroll)

 

2) This version focuses on everything but Pitching - Why no Pitchers other than 2019? Because I just got too bogged down trying to guesstimate the position players that I decided to leave the pitchers for another day and because it might irritate some to no end

 

3) Machado Signing - I'll buy into slight collusion and believe that neither the Yankees, nor any other team, will go to $300M...therefore, the Twins will and include an Opt-Out after 3 seasons...Manny can leap frog Harper and Trout in '22 to be highest paid player ever...if he doesn't Opt Out it's 10 years $30M per and he can move to 1st/DH/Mauer's every third day off status for the last 4 years

 

Machado plays SS for 2 years, slides to 3B when Lewis arrives and Opts Out after that season (it's my pipe dream so there you go)

 

And for those ready to say he won't sign here for $30M? I've left that extra $5M per year for you so it can be 10 years at $35M with the Opt Out after 3 years

 

4) Machado is the only Position Player addition in this BluePrint...the rest is up to the young talent in the system to produce (and by that I mean play well enough to hold down a roster spot or be spun for pitching)

 

5) All salary figures are my guesstimations based on a rough understanding of recent ARB and FA signings and do NOT take into account inflation(think of it as what they'd sign for this year as a FA) or the market crashing...more

 

Here's the Position Player Rosters:

 

 

Dollars spent on Position Players per year

 

2019 $65.901M

2020 $60.400M

2021 $70.700M

2022 $45.050M

2023 $55.900M

2024 $68.200M

 

I'll keep the same dollar figures when I try to fit in pitchers

 

Position Notes

 

C - Castro - Garver - Rortvedt

1B - 1 year of Cron - Rooker then Rooker/Larnach split duties

2B - Schoop to Gordon he sticks at 2B

3B - Sano for 2 years - Machado moves to 3B (opts out after season) - Miranda

SS - Machado for 2 years - Lewis takes over

LF - Eddie is the Core...signs 5 year $100M in '22

CF - Buxton figures it out...6 year $150M in '23

RF - Kepler for 2 years - Kirilloff takes over (could be sooner)

DH - Polanco for 2 years (or some combo-Bob of players) - Sano for 1 year - Larnach/Rooker

Bench C - Astudillo for a year then Rortvedt then Grz/Hamilton (or you're favorite young catcher)

Bench INF - Adrianza (unless too spendy) - Arrarez for 2 years - Helman for 2 years (or you're favorite young INF)

Bench OF - Cave until he's too expensive for a backup -Wade 2 years - Keirsey (or you're favorite young OF)

 

What about Javier/Baddoo/Jeffers/Celestino/Severino/....

 

Sounds like awesome trade opportunities to me...or as stated above (or you're favorite young player) could fill in

 

So there you have another Manny to Minny BluePrint and my way of saying...Meh to Standing Pat

 

Look what happened when 11 Standing Pats tried to finish a football game

 

[h2oface]

When you have a World Series Champion, and almost all your team is returning.... then standing pat as a strategy is maybe understandable. But those teams still make moves to improve!

 

When you digressed and sucked? Not so much. Make that not at all. I feel the Ghost of Connie Mack applauding, though.

 

Anyone can stand pat. Not the leadership that I was hoping for. I can't pretend to understand.

[Han Joelo]

It's weird, but I think my Christmas Season Strategy with my boys, now 9 and 7, is to also basically stand pat.  Last year we signed...er bought a free agent trampoline.  This just isn't the year to get a pool, and to be quite frank, the Lego bin is currently overflowing with prospective creations--if you put in the time to sort them out and do the work.  The boys are obsessed with the idea of getting their own phones, but they don't understand how long term contracts with cellular companies can hamstring your budget.

 

The one thing we might get for them is a used tablet if we can find an affordable one to Scoop up, and as long as it can run Google Cron.  Not the most exciting Christmas, but if you want excitement, wait till this spring, when I have them start digging a hole in the back yard for the "pool" they are never going to get.  Their pool will just be a shallow, muddy hole in the ground.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Sign players for more than one year deals. Bet on success, not failure. But if every year you fill your holes with one year deals, you have the same holes again. Or, I guess we can be happy with constant failure. That's also an option. Plenty of people have laid out their plans on this very site.

Like Phil Hughes? What if the Twins had bet on success with LoMo?

[Platoon]

Nick, no one enjoys reading articles by a pragmatist. It's a lot sexier to call for a high level action. Say, Kepler for Harper. Ok, if Kepler isn't enough I would throw in Astudillo. But reality sucks. And the reality is that the Twins problems are not simply for any specific shortcoming. You can't fault the anlaysis of Buxton or Sano. Everyone in MLB was sure they would be key players, league wide. Berrios? Many had questions on his ability to be an "ace". He is a reliable MLB starter, but unlikely to be an Ace. Reality is where Falvine understands he can't wave a wand and remake an entire roster in a year. They could try with the payroll levels the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, et al to toss around. But here comes reality again. The Twins aren't those teams. They are more in in the KC realm. Reality is the Twins only option to put a competitive team, year after year, on the field is to draft, develop, and promote, prospects, and to move pending FA's at there peak value. While signing a name FA or God forbid two, would sell some tickets, and create some buzz, it won't solve the problems this roster encompasses. That will only be resolved by accepting and acting on certain realities. Those being, that for years this orginisation was run as a good 'ole boys club. That drafting and developing was subpar at best. That off season signings were often over the hill "names to sell tickets. That competition for a #2 WC was the ultimate goal. Hopefully these things are in the past, and that the new regime concentrates on agressive proactive moves. That's really our only option. While Christmas is around the corner, I don't spect to find Bryce Harper under Falvines tree. JP may be a seasonal character, but he's more likely the Grinch than that Jolly Old Elf. Ho, Ho, Ho!

[Blake]

I don't envy the new FO. After the results of last year, they have to be questioning the talent they inherited from previous management.

 

I suspect Kepler and Sano need to show they belong this year or the FO starts looking in a different direction. (I think Buxton gets a pass this year.)

 

 

[Eris]

The Red Sox top 3 players produced 21 WAR in 2018.  The top 4 was 25 WAR.  Therefore, in order to be be competitive, the Twins will need 4 players with 5 WAR seasons or 5 players with 4 WAR seasons--plus pitching.  Our top 5 players (Rosario, Kepler, Escobar, Cave and Polanco) contributed 11 WAR last year.  The only way the Twins get to 20 WAR is if Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco all have career years.  Is it possible, yes.  Likely, No.  

Edited December 10, 2018 by Eris

[Vanimal46]

Like Phil Hughes? What if the Twins had bet on success with LoMo?

Are you advocating to never sign a multi year contract again?

[Luckyd]

I don't see this as a rebuilding year, so much as it seems more like a tryout year. Falvine finally  were allowed to hire the manager they wanted, and now they can see how all the pieces go together. And then go from there.

[Vanimal46]

They can stand pat if they want. I don't know how this generates any excitement for the team or desire to buy tickets. Apathy has already set in for a lot of fans.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Heller's book Catch 22 just popped into my head. You know management wants to win because winning brings in fans and fans bring in money, but to get there you have to pay someone somewhere some money so you can start winning, and that's the catch; so, instead, aim at mediocrity and hope for a .510 winning percentage. You can pat yourselves on the back and say, "We did OK and who knows what next year, or the year after that will bring?"

 

The Central Division by all indications will be incredibly weak in 2019, so why aim for 2021 or some other mystical year when all the explosive bats now hidden in the minor league happen to align with all of the cannon-like pitching arms that are hidden there? Teams do win while developing players, don't they?

 

You don't have throw away every prospect, but do spend some cash to show the fans that there is at least a speck of concern about winning.

 

Sorry, this just irritated me for some reason. I'm sure I'll get over it like I always do.

You've got to be crazy to believe something like this. But, they don't let crazy people post here. So....

[Seth Stohs]

 

Well that's the thing, they're not punting. I know the total payroll is going to disappoint people but they are set to pay like $30 million combined for Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda. And I bet they ink Berrios to a long-term deal before the start of next season. They could've gone a lot more conservative than Schoop at second.

 

This team will have a chance if some things break right offensively, it's just not a real aggressive push. And the problem is that it's all too easy to see them in a very similar position a year from now.

 

This is a good point. Also, if the core players do take their step forward in 2019, there's no reason that this team can't compete. Buxton. Sano. Kepler. Rosario. Berrios. Polanco. These guys are all very talented. I think only Rosario didn't make a Top 100 list as a prospect. Health. Something clicking... Luck. There's no reason to think that they can''t, or at least maybe 4-5 of them instead of just two like last year. Schoop is young and there's no reason to think he cant return to close to 2017 form.

 

The top four of the starting rotation is solid. There are a lot of options for the 5th starter job and a couple of them do have some upside. They have depth. (I think they will grab a starter though) And then there's the bullpen. Like I've written, I think there are four givens, and they can add a couple of veterans. Reed could return to 'normal.' 

 

So yeah... thats obviously an optimistic view. It doesn't make for an exciting offseason (though again, as many as three pitchers signed yet could make it a little more interesting), but it's also not completely out of the realm of possiblity.

 

And as many others have said, if Buxton and Sano don't become something, then 2019 was lost no matter who they signed. 

[gunnarthor]

My patience with the new FO is getting pretty thin. They took over a team with a ton of young stars on it, a great park and tons of payroll room. They haven't done anything to help the on-field product at all. For the playoff drive, they sold off players for a pretty thin return. They kept Molly as manager when it was clear he should've been let go. Now we're seeing them punt on another season unless the players force their hand.  

 

Part of this could be the fact that ownership is horrible as well. But at the end of the day, this team could have added Machado had they wanted to (they have the money) and he would've been a big part of 2019 and 2022. The FO has refused to add talent and has instead shuffled around for marginal pieces.

[Tom Froemming]

I've had a hard time consolidating my feelings on the tone of this offseason, but you did a really nice job here Nick.

 

It's hard to dispute the fact that the both overall direction and these individual moves seem smart for the most part. The issue is the current state of this division screams DO SOMETHING STUPID!!!

 

When is the AL Central, top to bottom, going to be this bad again? The Twins could end up building a consistent competitor that wins 85-90 games each season only to see another club build a super team that's winning 95-100 games every year. Then what?

 

The division is there for the taking in 2019. We don't know whether that will be the case in 2020 and beyond. It's depressing to hear the Twins sound so unmotivated to strike in what's presenting itself as a golden opportunity. 

 

Sometimes what's smart is actually stupid. They don't give out trophies at the end of the year to the organization that makes the smartest moves or gets the best return on their investments.

[Otto von Ballpark]

they are set to pay like $30 million combined for Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda.

Nitpick, but that seems a touch high. Using MLBTR's arbitration estimates, that trio clocks in at $25.3 mil for 2019.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure that Gordon's year can be characterized as "awful"

A 52 wRC+, over 410 PA, can almost certainly be universally characterized as "awful". Obviously, it would be worse if he was older or repeating a level or playing a corner position, but it's still awful.

Edited December 10, 2018 by spycake

[bird]

 

Given that Gibson, Reed, Pineda, odorrizi, Castro, Cron, Schoop, and I must be missing someone, are all only here for one more year, yes, they will be in this position again. It's what happens when you have lots of holes and refuse to sign long term deals.

That's seven of their 25 man roster..... Five of whom are pitchers.

 

I miss the logic involved in construing this fact as so problematic. They can agree to new contracts should they choose, right? And if they choose to move on from most of these players, four of whom are pitchers, could it be because they can plug in better alternatives?

 

The call to trade Gibson makes zero sense at all to me, unless Gibson's agent has made it clear that he wants out. He's not a surplus asset. He's a front line 2-3 starter, exactly the kind of asset you retain when you can. If Reed, Pineda, and Schoop turn things around and like their future here, same thing. Falvey is not going to trade or jettison any of these guys to make room for players he thinks will not be as good. He's going to trade Gordon, Gonsalves, and Rooker instead IMO. I just don't see the problem. 

 

That said, aside from Gibson, and possibly Pineda, guys like Cron and Schoop can be replaced for 2020 with upgrades just as easily as THEY upgrade those positions compared to Mauer, Dozier, and Forsythe.

[bird]

 

JFC, by the time they figure out what to do Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Berrios will be hitting free agency.

 

 

Not really.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Bill James, quoted by Phil Miller in the Strib on free agency: "the long-term contracts, with the big numbers that they carry, they catch up with you before you want them to..."

 

Smart front offices know this. Fans want microwave warmth eminating from the Hot Stove League. I say:

 

1) Maintain some payroll cushion for the 2019 trade deadline. If Buxton and Sano return to form go buy an ace from a team that's fallen out of the race, or deal Shoop, Cron, Gibson, etc... while we bolster the minors while waiting for the Lewis/Kiriloff wave.

2) Don't deal Kepler without a safety net/glove in centerfield behind a erratic/oft-injured Buxton.

 

Sure, we've been waiting for thus cake to bake for too long, but sticking it all in the free agency microwave isn't the answer.

 

Miller article here: http://m.startribune.com/why-is-baseball-free-agent-market-slow-teams-might-be-wising-up/468628223/

[nicksaviking]

I think what looks to be an outlier season in 2017 is what is skewing the perception of where the team was and where the team is. They weren't supposed to be good (and frankly, they really weren't very good) and if their record had been poor as expected, all of those short term deals would have looked in line with being a rebuilding club filling positions with stop gap players and reasonable mid-season flips. 

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ….. eh uh....Torreyes?!….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….ah huh....Schoop?!……..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz….agh, eh...….Cron?!….. I said wake me up when we do anything of consequence!  

 

How many Yankee entrails does that make in the last 2 years? 

 

We should rename our team the Minnesota Yankee Pilot Fishes 

 

We may as well be their AAAA team

 

[Don Walcott]

Of all of the things that frustrate me, the concept that we shouldn't pay a lot of money to sign good major league players because they might "block" our young prospects is probably the most frustrating. I've never seen a situation where a young player was actually blocked from playing. As a very extreme example, the Angels traded for Vernon Wells, who was being paid more than $20 million per year, while a young Mike Trout was ripping up the minors. When Trout was ready to dominate the majors, did Vernon Wells block his path? Hell no. The Angels simply sat Wells on the bench until they could trade him.

 

If a young player is ready to make the team, they'll make the team. In the meantime, let's stock the team with the best players we can. That strategy works whether the young guys pan out or not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

When is the AL Central, top to bottom, going to be this bad again? The Twins could end up building a consistent competitor that wins 85-90 games each season only to see another club build a super team that's winning 95-100 games every year. Then what?

 

How many super teams have we ever seen in the AL Central? Chicago and Detroit have only reached 95 wins twice each in the history of the AL Central. Cleveland 4 times, but only 2 since 1997. KC, never. Twins, once (although twice more at 94).

 

I get that Chicago and others won't be awful forever, but I don't think there is a serious risk of falling behind a "super team" in the AL Central. An 80-85 win forecast should be enough to keep us in the mix most every year. Not that we should limit ourselves to that, but it's not necessarily bad to have a few years like that while hopefully building toward something better.

[rgarfinkle]

I'm disappointed in the results on the field but I don't think Falvine is acting incorrectly in response to that. I know everyone wants to pan last year's moves, but they made sense at the time and they worked out, in their way.  Last year, you had a budding core and you added to it some short-term commitments to see if you could advance on 2017's success.  If things had gone well into July, the Twins would have been buyers at the deadline.  Instead, things went south, so Falvine salvaged some prospects for Lynn, Duke, and Dozier.  That looked like a prudent set of moves, and the fact that the core group went off the rails, for the most part, justifies their caution in not locking in on Darvish or some other long-term commitment.

  So now they look at 2018, and as Nick and others have said, this strategy looks smart, again:  you've got to see what you've got with this group.  If things break right, you can buy at the deadline.  If they don't, you're not locked into a lot of bad deals.  And you've got the money and flexibility to trade for a significant talent who becomes unhappy somewhere, or otherwise needs to move to a new home. 

  They're doing the right thing, and I hope their development coaches and staff can start to maximize the talent we have in the system.  That's my biggest disappointment with this team over the years:  that the prospects we bring up always seem to underperform their potential.  This is the biggest place for organizational improvement and, ultimately, major-league success.