markos

The medical history that teams provide are extremely comprehensive - and go beyond just x-rays and MRIs. It probably included every interaction Graterol had with the Twins medical staff, including treatments the Twins have tried for injuries both official (on the IL) and not (soreness between starts), as well as issues reported and treated during the offseason. It wouldn't shock me that, in addition to yellow-flags from the MRIs and/or X-Rays, Graterol may have had a longer history of shoulder soreness than is publicly available (but documented in his medicals), as well as history of various treatment options that were tried and failed.

Not only did they keep him in the pen for the postseason, but they didn't use him like he was a multi-inning shutdown reliever - he faced fewer batters in their World Series runs than Pedro Baez, Brandon Marrow, and Alex Wood, and over the past 4 post seasons pitched less than 8% of their total innings.

While I'm mostly sympathetic with Nick's premise here (I'm a big believer of this organization's ability to coax better performance - particularly velocity - from their pitchers), this won't be as easy as it was 2 years ago. Cole/Odorizzi were acquired as cheap as they were because it wasn't really a thing to expect giant leaps in performance. Now it is. If, for example, Jon Gray was put on the trading block, I bet 20 teams would line up to try to attain him. And this change in expectation is reflected by the recent trade deadline. The price that SELLING teams were asking certainly seemed to indicate that they were setting a price based more on potential rather than past or recent performance. No one wants to sell a pitcher and watch them take a leap for another team, but it certainly makes it more palatable if they got a great return that priced in the leap to a certain degree.

Maybe overall results are debatable, but I don't think there is any question that Wes Johnson (or someone in the organization) has worked wonders when it comes to adding a tick or two to velocity. 2018 to 2019 Fastball velocity increases: Odorizzi +1.8 Perez +1.4 Gibson +0.3 Berrios -0.4 Romero +1.6 May +1.5 Rogers +1.4 Duffey +1.0 Magill +0.6

Baseball savant uses the statcast data that tracks player movement on the field. Rosario is not an above-average runner - his sprint speed as tracked by their system is below average for left fielders. Additionally, their catch probability is based on batted ball profile - the time the ball is in the air and the distance the fielder needs to run. So positioning and the presence of other defenders doesn't matter as much as with other defensive rating systems.

Is the waiver claim order right now based on league right now? So like a player has to go through the AL before being exposed to NL teams? I can never remember the waiver order rules...

I agree with your reasoning here, but I think Wisler is worth the exception here. He checks a lot of the boxes that I look for breakout candidates: - pedigree (former top-50ish prospect) - age (a lot of pitchers take leaps in their late 20s) - current stuff (he has a legit swing-and-miss slider) - past organizational history (I don't consider Sea, Atl, Cin, SD as elite pitcher development organizations. It would be different if he was coming from Hou/NYY/LAD) - weakness fits the Twins developmental strength (he needs a better fastball. The Twins seem to be able to get more velocity out of their pitchers) Don't get me wrong, I'm not thinking he will be a stud. If pressed, I would guess that his most likely outcome is that he is waived before the end of spring training. But I like the upside, and I'm cautiously optimistic.

I'd chalk it up to Houston's superior PITCHER evaluation. Detroit and Pittsburgh didn't get elite prospects because no one was expecting Verlander or Cole to be top-5 pitchers in baseball over the new two seasons. If Verlander and Cole were 4 ERA, 3 WAR pitchers the past two seasons, would anyone be complaining that the Tigers or Pittsburgh didn't get enough?

I think this is really important point to keep in mind. The Astros in particular did not go out an trade for two of the best pitchers in baseball when they acquired the 2017 Verlander and Cole. They traded for good pitchers that they were able to transform into two of the best pitchers in baseball. If the goal is to find a pitcher that currently slots ahead of Berrios/Odorizzi, it is extremely unlikely that the Twins will be able to acquire one - pitchers of that current quality are almost all already on contending teams and I don't see them outbidding everyone for Cole. So I think the goal is to find a pitcher or pitchers of current lesser quality but with upside, with the expectation that this pitcher development staff will be able to help them make a leap. I think these 4 pitchers all fit that criteria considering their age, their current track records, and the track records of their current organizations.

I'm not exactly sure where it should fit into this series, but I think the single most important event for this Astros dynasty was Brady Aiken's decision to not sign. If Aiken signs, they don't have the opportunity to draft Alex Bregman, and they likely are not able to draft Daz Cameron either as an extreme overslot pick later in the draft. Bregman has been a top-5 player in baseball the past three seasons. Without him, the Astros would still be a very good team, but I don't think they would be held up as the best franchise in baseball.

Just to add more conflicting numbers to the conversation, Baseball Prospectus had Darvish as their #7 most valuable pitcher for the entire season based on their DRA metric.

It certainly seems like I am in the minority, but I think the coaching staff and front office have done a great job of doing everything they can to get Gibson back on track. The results haven't been great, obviously, but the process makes sense to me. My only major complaint is that they probably should have shut him down earlier in August once he had multiple low-velocity starts in row. But his velocity is back, and given that they don't have the option for a rehab assignment (minor league seasons are over), their only option has been to ease him into real games as best they can. There is definitely tension right now between what is best for the team versus what is best for Gibson, but I think they are walking that line pretty well. And longer term, it is clearly in the team's best interest to have an effective Gibson in the playoffs.

Given how much they've cycled guys through the bullpen, I'm kind of surprised he didn't get a longer look.

For what it's worth, if we use June 2nd (the high water mark for the division lead) as the dividing line, the Indian's have played better since June 2nd than the Twins played prior to June 2nd. And conversely, the Twins have played better since June 2nd than the Indians played prior to June 2nd.

I think your not factoring in that the sample size of teams in the former situation (11.5 out) is way, way, way larger than the latter (2nd place team 11.5 out). It may seem 'easier', but multiple teams may find themselves in the former situation multiple times every season, while the latter might not happen at all in any given division.