A Preliminary Look at the Minnesota Twins' Baseline 2027 Roster and Payroll

[Nick Nelson]

In the chart above, I've laid out what I view as the baseline roster for the Twins in 2027. That is not to say it's the roster I expect to see, but it's the mold they are working from. It includes all of their arbitration eligible players, with the exception of Trevor Larnach, who I just can't see coming back. Other players might be varying levels of unlikely, as we'll cover below, but they all have a case at least. 

In looking this over, a few things stand out. Let's unpack. 

Payroll Will Rise Naturally

Even without any external acquisitions, payroll is set to increase as a byproduct of arbitration raises (as estimated by MLB Trade Rumors), with a starting point around $115 million. That includes the $11 million the Twins are paying Houston for Carlos Correa, but also the $3.75 million they got back from Toronto to help cover Jeff Hoffman's salary.  

It's why Tom Pohlad's proclamation that payroll will rise next year is hardly some bold assertion. It's kinda hard not to go up from their 2026 Opening Day figure of $105 million. The bigger question is how much of an increase we're talking about. I'm setting the over/under at $130 million.

Too Much Starting Pitching

I know, I know, there's no such thing. We learned that the hard way this year. But the concept of Connor Prielipp being crowded out of the rotation to start the season seems outrageous. If healthy, Mick Abel should be there too. And I've currently got Zebby Matthews pegged for the bullpen (where I think he actually has a lot of upside). 

Part of me thinks the Twins could non-tender Bailey Ober, but he proved reasonably effective even with the reduced velocity. It's kind of hard to let a dependable back-end arm — second only to Joe Ryan in innings pitched for Minnesota over the past four years — get away for no return over $7 million.

Either way, you can see why Jeremy Zoll has expressed openness to dealing from the team's starting pitching depth, and it's why I predict Ryan will be moved. 

The Lineup Is Mostly Set

Looking at the projected starting nine, it seems all but certain that eight of the nine players will be slated for the starting lineup, with the possible exception of Emmanuel Rodriguez if he opens in a reserve role. (He has to be on the active roster due to being out of options.)

The glaring exception is first base. Royce Lewis' future with the franchise is in flux, and this position looks like easily the most obvious place to aim for an impact upgrade. We'll be taking a closer look at some of the potential targets in the days to come.

A Solid Base to Work With in the Bullpen

One of the most critical tasks for the Twins in this transitional season was to establish some stability in the bullpen, which was largely devoid of quality talent entering 2026. To their credit, they made some real progress. Hoffman gives them a legit centerpiece to build around, with Yoendrys Gómez and Andrew Morris emerging as solid complementary pieces. 

I'll be curious to see how many of their three arbitration-eligible vets are retained between Anthony Banda, Cole Sands and Tommy Nance. All are reasonable values at their projected salaries, but none offer a ton of upside. With maybe one more high-profile addition, you can really see the makings of a quality relief corps, especially if someone like Matthews or Kendry Rojas converts full-time.

What are you biggest takeaways as you look over the projected 2027 roster as it currently stands? What are the most sensible places to invest? Where would you be aiming to shake things up? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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[TJSweens]

Bringing back Ober would be a huge mistake even if they trade Ryan. He just blocks a better young pitcher. Prielipp, Abel, Matthews; which one do you drop from the rotation to make room for Ober?

[ToddlerHarmon]

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

[tony&rodney]

This offseason should SHOULD see some transactions. The past habit of sitting out November should give way to several transactions. This thought should drive some change.

It seems hard to believe the club would enter 2027 with four starting pitchers on expiring contracts, especially when one is returning from a lengthy absence due to injury while there are lingering questions about the other three veterans. Only Taj Bradley enters the offseason as a guy to put in ink. Connor Prielipp has shown us enough to earn a spot in the rotation. One of Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas, or Zebby Matthews gets the last slot. I'm guessing Abel with Matthews to the bullpen. 

Royce Lewis would be a reasonable utility player but I think he is gone. Looking over the form, I expect minimum salary to be at $1 miillion. The Twins could support a $140M budget. A few trades might fill in some depth pieces for the position side of the roster and perhaps one bullpen spot. The Twins should have about $40M available to sign three free agents (one position, two bullpen) after subtracting Lewis, Ober, and Ryan. Keeping Ober or Ryan is possible but not both. The Twins need to let Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner continue their careers elsewhere. There should be a fair return from them, not a regular though.

My expectation is that the front office is already sowing the seeds for transactions. Why not soon?

[old nurse]

36 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

Martin RH bat. Larnach, LH bat. 2 different roles. 

[DJL44]

It would be very Twins-like to trade Joe Ryan and then spend a bunch of money on a relief pitcher while ignoring the right side of the infield. 75 wins again.

[Peter]

Like it but Ober and ryan will be gone-what about able and festa? Both of these guys need to be in starting rotation! 

[mikelink45]

I like Ober for the pen. Martin and Larnach gone, Lewis and Ryan traded. If we are not contending - Lopez traded midseason.  Sands dropped and maybe Nance too.  This is the end of the season payroll, not the beginning of the new season. 

[DJL44]

Martin makes the league minimum and still has a minor league option. Cutting him would be stupid.

[LastOnePicked]

I wonder how inflation and fuel prices impact a mid-market team's expenses as well. I'm sure it's not huge money, but it probably adds up.

[Blyleven2011]

It’s T P’s and zoll’s first real off season to go big or go home …

over / under scenario …

don’t bet the farm …

[Clear Lake Twinsfan]

Nick, I think that you may have understated the salary for Jeff Hoffman in 2027.  While it is correct that he is in the last year of the 3 year, $33 million contract that he signed with Toronto ($11 million AAV), both Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs Roster Resource show that the salaries were not spread evenly over the three years and show a 2027 salary of $12,666,667.  It appears that Tom Pohlad took on more salary at the trade deadline than he was given credit for.

[MeleMouth]

Any plan that involves moving Abel*, Matthews, Prielipp**, and Rojas*** out of the rotation in favor of long-term veterans who have 1.5-3.0 WAR ceilings just means another year of 70-80 wins with reduced hope for the future.

After being 26th in attendance for much of 2026, a late collapse by Pittsburgh allowed the Twins to rise to 25th, tying their 21st Century low set in the Dome in 2001, which was actually a huge jump over the attendance during several awful years of baseball and attendance, along with rumors of relocation, ending in 2000. Also notable to remember is that Ultra Pohlad wanted the Twins to be contracted after the end of 2001.

This year, Twins attendance was ahead of only Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Miami, and Athletics. Running back essentially the same team with essentially the same ideas of team-building will allow the Twins to challenge for 26th again next year and perhaps 27th if Kansas City gets its act together.

*Abel to the bullpen or minors while Tait continues to hit 80% of league average in the low minors would confirm that the Twins made huge errors in talent assessment when they traded Duran, their most valuable trade chip since perhaps Jose Berrios.

**Prielipp, who was drafted before Parker Messick and Jacob Misiorowski, to the bullpen behind just OK starters would add to the already large amount of evidence that the Twins are significantly worse than the Guardians and Brewers in drafting and development.

***Rojas to the bullpen and Roden to the bench would put to rest any lingering dispute about how the Varland trade was an unforced disaster for the Twins that also didn't save any money.

[MeleMouth]

11 minutes ago, Clear Lake Twinsfan said:

Nick, I think that you may have understated the salary for Jeff Hoffman in 2027.  While it is correct that he is in the last year of the 3 year, $33 million contract that he signed with Toronto ($11 million AAV), both Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs Roster Resource show that the salaries were not spread evenly over the three years and show a 2027 salary of $12,666,667.  It appears that Tom Pohlad took on more salary at the trade deadline than he was given credit for.

Hoffman's salary is $12,666.667, but Toronto is funding $1,666,667 plus another $3,750,000, so his actual cost to the Twins may be $7.25M.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

There will probably be at least three left-hand hitting outfielders (without Larnach) on the opening day roster.  Those three (Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Roden)  will make roughly $3M in total.  Why keep another platoon left-handed OF who will make about $6.3M?

[Whammy]

I don't agree with including Caratini's buyout in this spreadsheet. I understand that if it happens it will be a fiscal year 2027 expense but,

a) He could get traded
b) while it seems likely that the buyout will happen, we don't know that yet.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are two of my all time favorite Twins pitchers for a variety of reasons. What are the pros and cons of trading Lopez vs. trading Ryan? Lopez is owed more than twice what Ryan is owed. But coming off injury and surgery, would Lopez command as much of a return in a trade as Ryan? More money could be saved by trading Lopez than by trading Ryan. I feel the question of which pitcher would be more valuable if pitching for the Twins in 2027, is quite the conundrum. In view of the money owed differential, I suggest the Twins pursue trading Lopez now, even though his trade value may be lower due to his injury. I do want to say that Lopez has passed Camilo Pascual as my favorite Twins' pitcher, due to Lopez being such a good human being. Also, speaking of money owed, Carlos Correa continues to be an albatross around the necks of Minnie and Paul on the large outfield logo at Target Field. What a failure by all concerned.

[LyleCole]

17 minutes ago, Clear Lake Twinsfan said:

Nick, I think that you may have understated the salary for Jeff Hoffman in 2027.  While it is correct that he is in the last year of the 3 year, $33 million contract that he signed with Toronto ($11 million AAV), both Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs Roster Resource show that the salaries were not spread evenly over the three years and show a 2027 salary of $12,666,667.  It appears that Tom Pohlad took on more salary at the trade deadline than he was given credit for.

His base salary is $11 million.  The $12.666  includes the amortization of a $5 million signing bonus that was included in the $33 million contract.

[terrydactyls]

Nick - When will the downloadable version of this table be available?  Playing offseason GM is a lot of fun.

[rdehring]

Interesting piece Nick.  I guess it is a sign of the times that we will be talking about payroll most days between now and whenever the season begins.  I for one could care what the payroll is.  What I do care about is that the FO makes good decisions and the team we see on the field for opening day is a better team than the one we saw much of this past season.  And not only better, but more interesting with many of our young future stars playing on the West side of the Mississippi River.  With that said, I expect payroll in 2027 will be higher.  How much is anyone's guess.

The only other thought I have is that I do not believe the Twins should allow any players with value to leave for nothing.  That means they must offer arbitration to Ober, Larnach and Lewis.  That is unless they cut a deal prior to arbitration, which I assume they will do.  This also doesn't mean that any of them should be on their opening day roster.  Rather, it means they have some work to do over what will be a difficult off-season to get at least two of the above trio (Larnach and Ober) moved for something in return.

[Andy MacPhail]

You have to focus on holes & have a lot of depth in premium positions, you can't have enough pitching, right! You need to eye the future as well as the present. I'm always willing to trade to better the team. 

[LyleCole]

First, if you look at that proposed roster it is not a)  good enough to compete for any meaningful post-season level or b)  enough of a rebuild to quickly transition to becoming a competitive team.   It is more of the half way measures that simply keeps the team in the 70-80 win range with only dreams of sneaking into the playoffs as a team that will get smacked out of the playoffs (over and over again) in the first round,   In the 21st century the Twins have made the playoffs ten times.  They have 7 total playoff wins, with 4 of those wins occuring in 2002.

Second,  the payroll configuration listed is what I would state is the maximum from the existing players on the roster.  I doubt they tender both Ober and Kremer.   I doubt they go with a $2 million backup catcher in Jackson.   It is highly doubtful they bring back Banda at even $2.3 million.  

I will state it again, and when you look at this roster it is blatantly obvious:  The Twins erred when they did not move Buxton and Ryan in the previous offseason, and Jeffers and others at the deadline.   Now the trade return value of these guys is substantially lower than it was at the beginning of 2026, they are a full year older, and both are struggling with injuries which severely impacted their performances in the 2nd half of the season.  Jeffers will be gone as a free agent only bringing back a comp pick and Larnach isn't even being tendered in this scenario.  Trading these guys brings back high level prospects that would then fill out the rebuild roster.

I think their decisions have made this roster about the best they can do, and we will be in for another fun 77 win season.