A Preliminary Look at the Minnesota Twins' Baseline 2027 Roster and Payroll

Bringing back Ober would be a huge mistake even if they trade Ryan. He just blocks a better young pitcher. Prielipp, Abel, Matthews; which one do you drop from the rotation to make room for Ober?

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

36 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

Martin RH bat. Larnach, LH bat. 2 different roles. 

Like it but Ober and ryan will be gone-what about able and festa? Both of these guys need to be in starting rotation! 

It’s T P’s and zoll’s first real off season to go big or go home …

over / under scenario …

don’t bet the farm …

Any plan that involves moving Abel*, Matthews, Prielipp**, and Rojas*** out of the rotation in favor of long-term veterans who have 1.5-3.0 WAR ceilings just means another year of 70-80 wins with reduced hope for the future.

After being 26th in attendance for much of 2026, a late collapse by Pittsburgh allowed the Twins to rise to 25th, tying their 21st Century low set in the Dome in 2001, which was actually a huge jump over the attendance during several awful years of baseball and attendance, along with rumors of relocation, ending in 2000. Also notable to remember is that Ultra Pohlad wanted the Twins to be contracted after the end of 2001.

This year, Twins attendance was ahead of only Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Miami, and Athletics. Running back essentially the same team with essentially the same ideas of team-building will allow the Twins to challenge for 26th again next year and perhaps 27th if Kansas City gets its act together.

*Abel to the bullpen or minors while Tait continues to hit 80% of league average in the low minors would confirm that the Twins made huge errors in talent assessment when they traded Duran, their most valuable trade chip since perhaps Jose Berrios.

**Prielipp, who was drafted before Parker Messick and Jacob Misiorowski, to the bullpen behind just OK starters would add to the already large amount of evidence that the Twins are significantly worse than the Guardians and Brewers in drafting and development.

***Rojas to the bullpen and Roden to the bench would put to rest any lingering dispute about how the Varland trade was an unforced disaster for the Twins that also didn't save any money.

11 minutes ago, Clear Lake Twinsfan said:

Nick, I think that you may have understated the salary for Jeff Hoffman in 2027.  While it is correct that he is in the last year of the 3 year, $33 million contract that he signed with Toronto ($11 million AAV), both Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs Roster Resource show that the salaries were not spread evenly over the three years and show a 2027 salary of $12,666,667.  It appears that Tom Pohlad took on more salary at the trade deadline than he was given credit for.

Hoffman's salary is $12,666.667, but Toronto is funding $1,666,667 plus another $3,750,000, so his actual cost to the Twins may be $7.25M.

17 minutes ago, Clear Lake Twinsfan said:

Nick, I think that you may have understated the salary for Jeff Hoffman in 2027.  While it is correct that he is in the last year of the 3 year, $33 million contract that he signed with Toronto ($11 million AAV), both Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs Roster Resource show that the salaries were not spread evenly over the three years and show a 2027 salary of $12,666,667.  It appears that Tom Pohlad took on more salary at the trade deadline than he was given credit for.

His base salary is $11 million.  The $12.666  includes the amortization of a $5 million signing bonus that was included in the $33 million contract.

Interesting piece Nick.  I guess it is a sign of the times that we will be talking about payroll most days between now and whenever the season begins.  I for one could care what the payroll is.  What I do care about is that the FO makes good decisions and the team we see on the field for opening day is a better team than the one we saw much of this past season.  And not only better, but more interesting with many of our young future stars playing on the West side of the Mississippi River.  With that said, I expect payroll in 2027 will be higher.  How much is anyone's guess.

The only other thought I have is that I do not believe the Twins should allow any players with value to leave for nothing.  That means they must offer arbitration to Ober, Larnach and Lewis.  That is unless they cut a deal prior to arbitration, which I assume they will do.  This also doesn't mean that any of them should be on their opening day roster.  Rather, it means they have some work to do over what will be a difficult off-season to get at least two of the above trio (Larnach and Ober) moved for something in return.

You have to focus on holes & have a lot of depth in premium positions, you can't have enough pitching, right! You need to eye the future as well as the present. I'm always willing to trade to better the team. 

First, if you look at that proposed roster it is not a)  good enough to compete for any meaningful post-season level or b)  enough of a rebuild to quickly transition to becoming a competitive team.   It is more of the half way measures that simply keeps the team in the 70-80 win range with only dreams of sneaking into the playoffs as a team that will get smacked out of the playoffs (over and over again) in the first round,   In the 21st century the Twins have made the playoffs ten times.  They have 7 total playoff wins, with 4 of those wins occuring in 2002.

Second,  the payroll configuration listed is what I would state is the maximum from the existing players on the roster.  I doubt they tender both Ober and Kremer.   I doubt they go with a $2 million backup catcher in Jackson.   It is highly doubtful they bring back Banda at even $2.3 million.  

I will state it again, and when you look at this roster it is blatantly obvious:  The Twins erred when they did not move Buxton and Ryan in the previous offseason, and Jeffers and others at the deadline.   Now the trade return value of these guys is substantially lower than it was at the beginning of 2026, they are a full year older, and both are struggling with injuries which severely impacted their performances in the 2nd half of the season.  Jeffers will be gone as a free agent only bringing back a comp pick and Larnach isn't even being tendered in this scenario.  Trading these guys brings back high level prospects that would then fill out the rebuild roster.

I think their decisions have made this roster about the best they can do, and we will be in for another fun 77 win season.

12 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

First, if you look at that proposed roster it is not a)  good enough to compete for any meaningful post-season level or b)  enough of a rebuild to quickly transition to becoming a competitive team.   It is more of the half way measures that simply keeps the team in the 70-80 win range with only dreams of sneaking into the playoffs as a team that will get smacked out of the playoffs (over and over again) in the first round,   In the 21st century the Twins have made the playoffs ten times.  They have 7 total playoff wins, with 4 of those wins occuring in 2002.

Your "First" comment captures the long-standing problem with how the Twins construct their teams. Regarding playoff appearances, several were due only to winning a weak AL Central. Almost every other team in the major leagues has a better playoff record than the Twins in the 21st Century.

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

I was just thinking if the Twins do not bring back Bell, Larnarch makes a perfect DH for them.  Since he is a 3/4 time player anyways sitting against LHP, he could DH 100 games with 20 in the OF so they can rotate players in and out of DH.  Then we only need to worry about 1B and C on offense next year.  

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Festa may not pitch at all ……… certainly not in the mix for a Rotation slot. Abel showed signs of being a real find in last 2-3 starts …… needs to get healthy and then re-establish command he showed before arm problems.

I like ZERO spending on FA’s for pitching. 

Your thought on Festa, I like as a serious PEN depth candidate……… Matthews assuming a “Varland like” roll in the PEN. Ober to the PEN along with Rojas. The $$ spent on a guy that Team understands completely, in Ober.

ROTATION: Bradley - Ryan - Lopez - Kremer - Abel - Prielipp ……… 6 guys for 5 spots to start the year with one of the latter 2 guys at AAA April 1 due to options available.

PEN: Ober - Sands - Banda - Rojas - Funderburk - Gomez - Morris - Hoffman - Matthews - Nance - Paredes - Acton - etc. for more depth………….whoever performs in group above should provide a solid base to start the season………Festa - Anderson - Raya …….14 guys that all have the ability to be effective.

I would be fine with a good. Bullpen signing.  Someone like Minter or on his level.  But you're right, they don't need to do much with pitching.  Maybe trade Ober.  

If the Twins are looking at building a true open window roster starting in ‘28, they have all the money in the world.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Kremer, Hofmann and Banda will not be on the ‘28 Twins.  That saves about $57MM.

Throw in Caratini and Lewis and that’s another 12MM.

So that’s nearly $70MM to play with prior to some raises and extensions for ‘28 and beyond.

And with Buxton and Correa basically sunk costs and coming off the books after ‘28, there’s an additional $26MM to play with in ‘28 looking forward to ‘29 - ‘31.

If the “target payroll” is $130MM, that’s over $100MM to play with over the next two off seasons  

If there is a salary cap with a floor of around $170MM (likely to be applied over some period of time), the Twins would have another $40MM to spend at some point.

So, what’s the plan?

Use the ‘27 off season and regular season to build for ‘28-‘31. That means a) anyone signed must be looked at as primary contributors during those years and b) anyone not going to be on that roster either plays out their contract, is traded, or is released.

So specifically what are the moves?

The single biggest priority is re-signing Jeffers to be our starting catcher in ‘27 and ‘28 and then transition to 1B/DH in ‘29-‘30.   Four years at $17.5MM for a total of $70MM.

If we add expensive relief pitching then they must be projectable through ‘28/‘29.

After that, we let the youngsters (including Houston) in the lockout shortened ‘27 season, finesse 1B and the starting rotation (trade Lopez and Ryan at the deadline), and keep the rest of our powered dry to fill in any holes in a more robust free agent market during the ‘28 off season.

Its not rocket science. 

4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So, what’s the plan?

Use the ‘27 off season and regular season to build for ‘28-‘31. That means a) anyone signed must be looked at as primary contributors during those years and b) anyone not going to be on that roster either plays out their contract, is traded, or is released.

Unfortunately according to Tommy Pohlad, the plan - the word he used was "expectation" - is to make the playoffs in 27.  

This isn't surprising given the Pohlads' goal to clear their debts off the books and sell the team for the $2b+ they believe they are rightfully owed.  Under Jim it was always a new 5 year plan every year, without ever focusing on the present.  Now under Tommy it's 1 year plans, year after year, without ever focusing on the future or what it takes to actually build the sustainable winner he claims to want.  

As a baseline, I can see this. It's important to think of it that way: this is a potential starting point, a "no moves" roster, not even a prediction of what might get done or any suggestion that this is what Nick thinks the Twins should or even will do.

That said, I do think that Ober is gone. Much as they love Ober, I think they and we all know at this point that he has little to no chance of recovering his velocity, he's a likely candidate to spend time on the IL, and while he can chew up innings in the back of your rotation the upside is unfortunately gone. I think they'll explore trade options with him before non-tendering him. Someone else will give him a 1 year deal in the $3-5M range when they miss out on other free agents and just need to fill a spot.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that Lewis is going to go as well. And as much as I've always rooted for him, it's probably time to see if a change will do him good. While the 1B market for FA is pretty rotten, letting Lewis go opens up more opportunity to take on salary in a trade as well, and if a significant upgrade isn't found? I'd rather roll with internal options from the minors and see what happens. Pick up a 1B glove, Alan Roden. Work on your footwork, Hendry Mendez. Even Sabato feels like he might have more upside at this point than Royce (probably not, but how can we expect anything from Royce at this point).

My initial thought is that Banda won't be back either; he's fairly cheap but he's coming off a significant injury and he's hardly lit the world on fire. As a second LHP, he's fine but I think Funderburk is more likely to get that opportunity: cheaper and not coming off an injury. While I really want them to find an offensive upgrade in FA or via trade, I'm having trouble figuring out what that looks like. I suspect Ty France will get priced out...and he's a bit of a risk for the 4 year deal he'll unquestionably be looking for. The rest of the 1B options are unimpressive.

The bullpen is a pretty reasonable place to put some dollars and keep a quality bullpen in place for Opening Day (whenever that might be). Bring back Minter as the top LHP. Add Abreu to be a 7th-8th inning guy as a RHP with experience and ability. I do think Sands will be here if his velocity is back post-surgery. YMMV on whether that's good, but 2024 Sands was really good.

Maybe the other spot besides 1B to try and get an upgrade is the Kreidler/Ross type of spot?